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Philadelphia Phillies (MLB): The "Ruf"fled Offseason Thread

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11-29-2012, 11:07 AM
  #426
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Originally Posted by Devastate View Post
Or they are quite serious about Ruf
If we got Hamilton, I agree with the Ruf sentiment. We would be defensively quite mediocre, but, at least for a couple more years, field a pretty strong line-up and starting rotation.

Clearly, Hamilton is a longterm liability, but surveying the market, there's probably no one else that can make enough difference for the 2-3 years we may have left on our closing window, except maybe Bourn. I'm not even sure a Bourn is enough to put us over the top.

If Hamilton will take 5 years, it's probably the best of a bunch of suboptimal choices.

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11-29-2012, 12:30 PM
  #427
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If we got Hamilton, I agree with the Ruf sentiment. We would be defensively quite mediocre, but, at least for a couple more years, field a pretty strong line-up and starting rotation.

Clearly, Hamilton is a longterm liability, but surveying the market, there's probably no one else that can make enough difference for the 2-3 years we may have left on our closing window, except maybe Bourn. I'm not even sure a Bourn is enough to put us over the top.

If Hamilton will take 5 years, it's probably the best of a bunch of suboptimal choices.
I want no parts of Hamilton. He is too aloof and I don't think he would mesh well with this team. Plus, I think going forward Hamilton is better suited as a corner OFer. I would prefer the Phils don't overspend on Hamilton and wait it out to see if Jacoby Ellsbury makes it to FA next offseason. I would prefer to stop-gap the CF position this year.

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11-29-2012, 02:24 PM
  #428
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I want no parts of Hamilton. He is too aloof and I don't think he would mesh well with this team. Plus, I think going forward Hamilton is better suited as a corner OFer. I would prefer the Phils don't overspend on Hamilton and wait it out to see if Jacoby Ellsbury makes it to FA next offseason. I would prefer to stop-gap the CF position this year.
Our window of opportunity is too short to push it a year. We're about 3 years from a complete rebuild of this entire organization. To me, Josh Hamilton offers us the best chance to win now. To me, waiting on Ellsbury makes little sense when the opportunity to win with this team will be over soon.

I absolutely agree that Hamilton is better equipped to be a corner OF soon and I'm sure that he will be at some point in his impending deal regards of where he signs. There's nothing to say that we couldn't sign Hamilton today and use Halladay/Utley's money next season on Ellsbury. We're not far from those two being done... or at worst, considerably cheaper than their current respective deals.

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11-29-2012, 02:56 PM
  #429
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Apparently the Lopez deal is falling apart due to arm concerns.

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11-29-2012, 03:23 PM
  #430
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Our window of opportunity is too short to push it a year. We're about 3 years from a complete rebuild of this entire organization. To me, Josh Hamilton offers us the best chance to win now. To me, waiting on Ellsbury makes little sense when the opportunity to win with this team will be over soon.

I absolutely agree that Hamilton is better equipped to be a corner OF soon and I'm sure that he will be at some point in his impending deal regards of where he signs. There's nothing to say that we couldn't sign Hamilton today and use Halladay/Utley's money next season on Ellsbury. We're not far from those two being done... or at worst, considerably cheaper than their current respective deals.
that thought brings tears to my eyes

but i completely agree their window is closing quickly and Hamilton gives them the best chance of winning short term. the main problem for me is short term is most likely not what he's looking for. he's 31 and is probably looking for a deal that will take him to the final years of his career worth 100 mil.

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11-29-2012, 03:36 PM
  #431
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I think the window is pretty much closed.

The only way they can compete is: if Halladay was just banged up and is able to return to more of his form, if Utley can stay healthy, and if Howard just ages like a normal freakin person instead of falling off a damned cliff.

I don't really want any parts of Hamilton, but Idk. I'd be less angry at shorter term and higher per year salary...but still I don't know.

I honestly think they need to rebuild, or they're going to wind up like the Eagles with several years of mediocrity, and a slow death.

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11-29-2012, 04:29 PM
  #432
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Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
Our window of opportunity is too short to push it a year. We're about 3 years from a complete rebuild of this entire organization. To me, Josh Hamilton offers us the best chance to win now. To me, waiting on Ellsbury makes little sense when the opportunity to win with this team will be over soon.

I absolutely agree that Hamilton is better equipped to be a corner OF soon and I'm sure that he will be at some point in his impending deal regards of where he signs. There's nothing to say that we couldn't sign Hamilton today and use Halladay/Utley's money next season on Ellsbury. We're not far from those two being done... or at worst, considerably cheaper than their current respective deals.
Sorry, but I don't really agree with your line of thinking. The Phils have an indefinite window because they have a massive payroll. What they need to avoid is foolish spending.

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11-29-2012, 05:10 PM
  #433
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Sorry, but I don't really agree with your line of thinking. The Phils have an indefinite window because they have a massive payroll. What they need to avoid is foolish spending.
And because of foolish spending, they have a defined window...

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11-29-2012, 05:44 PM
  #434
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Sorry, but I don't really agree with your line of thinking. The Phils have an indefinite window because they have a massive payroll. What they need to avoid is foolish spending.
Too bad they've already done plenty of that

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11-29-2012, 06:26 PM
  #435
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I think the window is pretty much closed.

The only way they can compete is: if Halladay was just banged up and is able to return to more of his form, if Utley can stay healthy, and if Howard just ages like a normal freakin person instead of falling off a damned cliff.

I don't really want any parts of Hamilton, but Idk. I'd be less angry at shorter term and higher per year salary...but still I don't know.

I honestly think they need to rebuild, or they're going to wind up like the Eagles with several years of mediocrity, and a slow death.
I kind of agree with you. I still think this team is going to be good, but I'm not as optimistic as I was this time last year. They have a huge hole in center and the options are diminishing. They have some decent third base prospects, but they are a couple years away. They have talented, but unproven arms in the bullpen. All this on top of an aging roster.

BTW the Phillies offered Upton 5/$55. That would have been a nice deal for us. Can't blame him taking the extra $20 million. I really don't want Bourn, but if his price declines significantly, I would be OK with it, but he'd just be another aging guy at a key position. Pagan's OK, Hamilton can't play CF, Victorino we already tried, Span just got traded, Fowler is overvalued. There's Bourjos, but you'd probably have to give up a lot. Maybe he makes a trade for someone off the radar, but Rube's in a pickle it seems.

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11-30-2012, 07:56 AM
  #436
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And because of foolish spending, they have a defined window...
How do you figure that? In 2014, if they use their 2012 opening day payroll they'll have a minimum of $80M to spend on payroll (and that doesn't include a possible increase in payroll because of a new TV deal). Even if they execise Halladay's option they have $60M to spend (maybe more).

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11-30-2012, 11:32 AM
  #437
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How do you figure that? In 2014, if they use their 2012 opening day payroll they'll have a minimum of $80M to spend on payroll (and that doesn't include a possible increase in payroll because of a new TV deal). Even if they execise Halladay's option they have $60M to spend (maybe more).
Because you can't spend your way to success like that. In 2014, you're looking at replacing Utley, Rollins, and Ruiz? You've got an aged Ryan Howard, Halladay, and Lee. In fact, other than Hamels, is there any player in 2014 you feel confident about still being in their prime?

The reality is that our farm system is the biggest problem. We have no projectable offensive talent at this point. Everyone is 3-5 years away with little ability to expect quality with the lone exception being an incredibly young Biddle.

To me, you go for it this year. If you miss, you sell off everything and start a massive rapid rebuild. If we're out of it by the deadline this year, you can expect a massive selloff to reduce the length and depth of the slide, but to me, it's unmistakable that there are down years on the horizon.

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11-30-2012, 11:43 AM
  #438
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Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
Because you can't spend your way to success like that. In 2014, you're looking at replacing Utley, Rollins, and Ruiz? You've got an aged Ryan Howard, Halladay, and Lee. In fact, other than Hamels, is there any player in 2014 you feel confident about still being in their prime?

The reality is that our farm system is the biggest problem. We have no projectable offensive talent at this point. Everyone is 3-5 years away with little ability to expect quality with the lone exception being an incredibly young Biddle.

To me, you go for it this year. If you miss, you sell off everything and start a massive rapid rebuild. If we're out of it by the deadline this year, you can expect a massive selloff to reduce the length and depth of the slide, but to me, it's unmistakable that there are down years on the horizon.
The one reason I'm ok with a couple down years is that I think this ownership wants to be the Red Sox/Yankees. They want to be in the conversation almost every year, and I think with the TV deal in 2015 they'll be able to do that. So I believe the Phils will be good for a long time. Probably not every year, but I don't think we're gonna go back to 90+ losses anytime soon.

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11-30-2012, 12:20 PM
  #439
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Kind of random, but I still don't understand why we didn't trade Juan Pierre at the deadline and again on waivers.

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11-30-2012, 02:39 PM
  #440
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Because you can't spend your way to success like that. In 2014, you're looking at replacing Utley, Rollins, and Ruiz? You've got an aged Ryan Howard, Halladay, and Lee. In fact, other than Hamels, is there any player in 2014 you feel confident about still being in their prime?
Why can't you? You'll have their salaries to replace their bodies. We have more than enough potential 'plugs' in the system to give us cheap, respectable options at positions (Asche, Gillies, Valle/Joseph, Brown, Ruff, etc. - the list goes on... if at least 3 or 4 of these guys become ML caliber starters then that gives us more money for the other 4-5) and allow us to throw money at FAs in others. Only teams on low internal budgets need to groom superstars to compete.

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11-30-2012, 03:08 PM
  #441
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Because you can't spend your way to success like that. In 2014, you're looking at replacing Utley, Rollins, and Ruiz? You've got an aged Ryan Howard, Halladay, and Lee. In fact, other than Hamels, is there any player in 2014 you feel confident about still being in their prime?

The reality is that our farm system is the biggest problem. We have no projectable offensive talent at this point. Everyone is 3-5 years away with little ability to expect quality with the lone exception being an incredibly young Biddle.

To me, you go for it this year. If you miss, you sell off everything and start a massive rapid rebuild. If we're out of it by the deadline this year, you can expect a massive selloff to reduce the length and depth of the slide, but to me, it's unmistakable that there are down years on the horizon.
Sure you can. The Yankees have been doing it for the last 20 years. But I do agree that we sould sell off some of our players. But signing Josh Hamilton to "go for it" this year is just throwing fuel on the fire that will become this team. BJ Upton would have been the perfect signing for this team. Short term deal, relatively low AAV, young player still in his prime, plays a position of need, bats RH.

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11-30-2012, 04:42 PM
  #442
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Sure you can. The Yankees have been doing it for the last 20 years. But I do agree that we sould sell off some of our players. But signing Josh Hamilton to "go for it" this year is just throwing fuel on the fire that will become this team. BJ Upton would have been the perfect signing for this team. Short term deal, relatively low AAV, young player still in his prime, plays a position of need, bats RH.
5 years is short term?
15 Million a year is relatively low AAV? Relative to what, Bill Gates' bank account?

Upton was a bad signing. So glad we didn't grab him.

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11-30-2012, 04:43 PM
  #443
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Kind of random, but I still don't understand why we didn't trade Juan Pierre at the deadline and again on waivers.
I don't know either really, but I'd say it's because we needed someone to play in the outfield.

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11-30-2012, 05:29 PM
  #444
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Nate Schierholtz was non-tendered for those that wanted a Mayberry/Nate platoon in center.

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12-02-2012, 07:47 AM
  #445
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Interesting article about non-tendered players who may fit in Philly. I would take any or all of these guys (Wilson, Soto, Moylan, Reynolds, Jurrjens).



http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-ph...573&feedID=693

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12-02-2012, 02:23 PM
  #446
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Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS
Ichiro said to be reaching out to other teams now (philly could be one). Belief strong he badly wants to stay w/ NYY tho.

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12-02-2012, 06:52 PM
  #447
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Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS
Ichiro said to be reaching out to other teams now (philly could be one). Belief strong he badly wants to stay w/ NYY tho.
I'd be comfortable with him if we also brought in a guy like Pagan. Ichiro will be able to hit until he dies, but he's definitely an injury risk waiting to happen.

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12-02-2012, 06:52 PM
  #448
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Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS
Ichiro said to be reaching out to other teams now (philly could be one). Belief strong he badly wants to stay w/ NYY tho.
I love Ichiro, but I doubt he comes here. Would be cool if he had a couple years left in him and could reach 3,000 hits (here or elsewhere). One of the best hitters of all time in my book.

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12-02-2012, 08:18 PM
  #449
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I'd be comfortable with him if we also brought in a guy like Pagan. Ichiro will be able to hit until he dies, but he's definitely an injury risk waiting to happen.
He's old but the fewest games hes ever played in was 146.

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12-03-2012, 09:25 AM
  #450
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5 years is short term?
15 Million a year is relatively low AAV? Relative to what, Bill Gates' bank account?

Upton was a bad signing. So glad we didn't grab him.
Yes. 5 years is short-term when compared to other top UFA outfielders. Crawford, Werth and Holliday all got 7 year deals. Heck even Yu Darvish, Jose Reyes and Adrian Beltre all got 6 year deals. So 5 years is short comparatively (or at least, in line with what he should have gotten).

And 15M AAV is relatively low. Again, look at the top outfield UFAs AAV.

Crawford: 20M AAV
Werth: 18M AAV
Bay: 16.5M AAV
Holliday: 17M AAV

Almost all those guys were in their early 30s when they signed as well and they don't play a premium OF position (except Werth who can play CF). I think Werth is the best comparable for Upton and he got 7/126M.

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