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Do the Leafs draft better/worse if there is a half season

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11-29-2012, 09:56 AM
  #1
Hawaiinleaf
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Do the Leafs draft better/worse if there is a half season

I think the team is better served if the lockout remains for the entire season.

Recall last year we were a top 10 team in the first half before collapse

Burke has added JVR and likely a few players by trades should season be a go...so we should get better not worse

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11-29-2012, 10:03 AM
  #2
Drew311
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It's sad that fans are more concerned about draft position than making the playoffs.

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11-29-2012, 10:06 AM
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ACC1224
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This is fresh...like bread out of the oven.

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11-29-2012, 10:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawaiinleaf View Post
I think the team is better served if the lockout remains for the entire season.

Recall last year we were a top 10 team in the first half before collapse

Burke has added JVR and likely a few players by trades should season be a go...so we should get better not worse
If we do well enough to make the playoffs in a shortened season (as per your theory) then its great experience. Allows us to make some moves in the offseason and light a fire, PLUS show phill kessel the team is moving in the right direction.

However, if we do happen to play, the leafs wont be anywhere near a playoff spot (barring no trades). The lottery is too much of a gamble. The last time there was a lottery, there were no teams with 3 balls within the top 5. TO RISKY. Play hockey and decide our own fate.

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11-29-2012, 10:10 AM
  #5
Krazy
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I kinda wonder about this as well. The team is never served better by no season. But as far as the draft pick goes....

There are so many variables.
1.) if there is a full lockout, toronto in theory could pick first-30th. Its not fair that a bottom 5 team should pick 30th. However statistically I think a top 10 pick would be likely.


However. If there is like a 30-40 game season, its not fair to base the draft standings fully on this. I mean a 5 game hot streak could be worth the equivalent of a 20 point differential.... Toronto could start well and fade but end up with like the 14th pick again.

That being said.... Toronto could try to trade Macarthur/Bozak/Lombardi/Connolly/Lupul for some picks that could help get higher picks.

Mac and bozak could easily be worth 2nd and 4ths, connolly/lombardi 4ths, and Lupul a first plus prospect.

So....
Option A
No season: pick from 1-30..... Say we get 5th again.

So top 5 pick


Option B, No season and No playoffs.

Maybe 10th pick
Plus Mac and Bozak, Connolly and Lombo net us 2,2, 4,4,5

Maybe that is better?

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11-29-2012, 10:14 AM
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Also if there is a short season, its kind of ridiculous to base it on just the few say 30 games played......

They should do it based on the point totals from the last season and this season (so say the 120 games).... with the cup winner getting last pick and final 4....

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11-29-2012, 10:14 AM
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johnnyutah
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based on the last lockout lottery, what are the odds of us getting a top 5 pick?

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Old
11-29-2012, 10:34 AM
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I just want some damn NHL hockey.

I messed up and started watching all of kessel's goals last year vid.

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11-29-2012, 10:48 AM
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7even
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We were never really a top 10 team. We rode the percentages and then invariably crashed. Just like Minnesota.

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11-29-2012, 10:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krazy View Post
Also if there is a short season, its kind of ridiculous to base it on just the few say 30 games played......
Didn't the 94-95 season lockout last until early January? and they still managed to play 45+ games? I know it's unlikely that we see an NHL season as time goes by but if they do in fact set a CBA in place and save the season, they will for sure play more than half the games.

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11-29-2012, 10:59 AM
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I think that this team is on the verge of getting a lot better quickly

next season we will have hopefully 2-3 prospects make the team Rielly, Biggs +

Add in a top FA or 2 to replace Connolly Lambo Komi

and a few trades make this team a playoff team for sure then then some.

That means no more bottom 10 draft picks or a chance at a true blue chip talent

This draft is the best in years and has 6-7 blue chip prospects

McKinnon
Jones
Barkov
Monahan
Drouin
Shaterdrink

Our need for a true Centre # 1 has been talked about for years and this year is the year of the Centre so i think getting a Barkov/Monahan in the draft and signing Getzlaf cements this team for a decade or longer..

Missing out on a blue chip talent this year and improving as we will next year means Reilly is our only true Blue chip young talent..

I think that is a serious mistake and not in the teams best interest

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11-29-2012, 11:05 AM
  #12
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The shorter the season the less games played the closer all teams remain bunched together as it takes time for the cream to rise to the top.

A shortened season results therefore would be more dynamic where our Leafs could even steal a playoff spot and thus earn a bottom 15 pick in the first round of the draft.

In the analogy that a shortened season being like a sprint and in a marathon full season the Leafs settle at the bottom and draft high accordingly. So in terms of the merits of an entry draft perspective alone, a shortened season makes Leafs odds worse than without one or with a full season.

Best Draft odds rankings

1) Full NHL Season -(Bottom 5 finish = +8% odds of drafting #1 overall)
2) Weighted lottery draft - No Season = +6% odds of drafting #1 overall)
3) Shortened Season - Result odds unpredictable.

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11-29-2012, 11:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawaiinleaf View Post
I think that this team is on the verge of getting a lot better quickly

next season we will have hopefully 2-3 prospects make the team Rielly, Biggs +

Add in a top FA or 2 to replace Connolly Lambo Komi

and a few trades make this team a playoff team for sure then then some.

That means no more bottom 10 draft picks or a chance at a true blue chip talent

This draft is the best in years and has 6-7 blue chip prospects

McKinnon
Jones
Barkov
Monahan
Drouin
Shaterdrink

Our need for a true Centre # 1 has been talked about for years and this year is the year of the Centre so i think getting a Barkov/Monahan in the draft and signing Getzlaf cements this team for a decade or longer..

Missing out on a blue chip talent this year and improving as we will next year means Reilly is our only true Blue chip young talent..

I think that is a serious mistake and not in the teams best interest
Wut?

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Old
11-29-2012, 11:45 AM
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Hawaiinleaf
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Sorry Math and concepts were my strengths not spelling

point remains we get burnt by a short season and have short term success at the cost of drafting out # 1 centre

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11-29-2012, 11:47 AM
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Eyedea
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawaiinleaf View Post
Sorry Math and concepts were my strengths not spelling

point remains we get burnt by a short season and have short term success at the cost of drafting out # 1 centre
But how did you get Shaterdrink from Shinkaruk?

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11-29-2012, 11:48 AM
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Aplayaz2000
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half season? hahahahaha

oh yeah that's guna happen

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11-29-2012, 11:48 AM
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ACC1224
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawaiinleaf View Post
Sorry Math and concepts were my strengths not spelling

point remains we get burnt by a short season and have short term success at the cost of drafting out # 1 centre
A condensed schedule is tougher on the weaker Teams. If you feel the Leafs are still one of the weaker Teams, you should be happy.

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11-29-2012, 11:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drew311 View Post
It's sad that fans are more concerned about draft position than making the playoffs.
I'm more concerned about building a very good team for the future, than sneaking into the playoffs to likely lose in the first round. The team as it sits just doesn't have the bodies needed. There are some elite players available this year that could help this team immensely. As a fan, I'd sacrifice one more year of no playoffs, if that means getting an elite player to add to our core. If you can add a MacKinnon, Barkov or Monahan to this team, make a few decent trades, and some good UFA pickups, this team could be a real threat down the road.

It is about sacrificing this year, in the hopes of building a better future.

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11-29-2012, 11:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawaiinleaf View Post
Sorry Math and concepts were my strengths not spelling

point remains we get burnt by a short season and have short term success at the cost of drafting our # 1 centre
I think you mean Leaf fans get burnt by the poor results of the team when it plays regardless of the length of season, but the silver lining of enduring the losses is knowing it earns the team a higher selection at the entry draft.

The silver lining isn't the #1 priority when the puck drops on a new season, the Stanley Cup is, but it soon becomes a reality when the results start coming in.

Our GM has been unable to assemble a team capable of finishing out of the bottom 10 overall, finishing bottom 5 in 2 of the past 3 seasons. When he doesn't trade away the high picks were rewarded for his failure by selecting Morgan Rielly types at the draft as the silver lining. Therefore Leafs odds of drafting high exist playing or not based on results in evidence.

So based on his track record, how are you so certain that Leafs will get burnt at the draft by playing, when playing has earned us those top picks in the past?


Last edited by Mess: 11-29-2012 at 12:05 PM.
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11-29-2012, 12:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drew311 View Post
It's sad that fans are more concerned about draft position than making the playoffs.
considering we arent playing hockey our next draft pick is pretty much all we have to look forward to.

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11-29-2012, 12:53 PM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyutah View Post
based on the last lockout lottery, what are the odds of us getting a top 5 pick?
This is not an easy question to answer. It's a binomial distribution in which the probability of an event happening changes every after every time.

So, the probability of 1 (or more) of 5 trials with a 6% (this is assuming 50 balls and TML has 3) chance of occurrence= 27%.

I would say that's close enough without taking into account the varying probability.


I'm not statistician, so someone correct me if I'm wrong.

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11-29-2012, 02:14 PM
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Someone needs to do this math.

If we have 3/50 balls.

And 30/50 balls will be selected.

What are the odds one of the 3 balls is selected in the first 10 picks.

Edit: Beaten to the punch I See

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11-29-2012, 02:21 PM
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Sadly the Leafs are probably better off without a season draft aside. We'll lose assets due to free agency but so will everyone else. Given that the Leafs are not a very good team but have a tonne of cap space to spend, they will end up better off with an extra year of development, loss of dead weight and able to sign a big name free agent or two.

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11-29-2012, 02:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Keeping it Blue View Post
This is not an easy question to answer. It's a binomial distribution in which the probability of an event happening changes every after every time.

So, the probability of 1 (or more) of 5 trials with a 6% (this is assuming 50 balls and TML has 3) chance of occurrence= 27%.

I would say that's close enough without taking into account the varying probability.


I'm not statistician, so someone correct me if I'm wrong.
The only thing I think that needs to be corrected is that there are 55 balls I believe.

Also have to remember that if a team is selected, all of their remaining balls are removed.

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Old
11-29-2012, 03:01 PM
  #25
7even
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Keeping it Blue View Post
This is not an easy question to answer. It's a binomial distribution in which the probability of an event happening changes every after every time.

So, the probability of 1 (or more) of 5 trials with a 6% (this is assuming 50 balls and TML has 3) chance of occurrence= 27%.

I would say that's close enough without taking into account the varying probability.


I'm not statistician, so someone correct me if I'm wrong.
If any of you are statisticians, this page does a decent job of explaining the mechanisms you'd use in theory: http://stats.stackexchange.com/quest...-probabilities

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