HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > By The Numbers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
By The Numbers Hockey Analytics... the Final Frontier. Explore strange new worlds, to seek out new algorithms, to boldly go where no one has gone before.

Is there an equivalent of a "Moneyball" for the NHL?

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
11-29-2012, 12:24 PM
  #226
bluemandan
Ya Ma Goo!
 
bluemandan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,688
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyOnTheSpot View Post
You ever watch Michael Handzus on the PK? As a Flyers fan, I'd cheer because it broke up cross ice passes for a clean breakaway constantly, then cry when I realized it was the mud monster, and he would be caught before he hit the red line. Takeaways aren't always the best hahaha.

As for Moneyball, it'd never work in the NHL, but the closest I think we see to the concept is the Predators. They continuously ice a competitive team every year, on a budget. They get the most out of the players, and when someone prices out, they manufacture a replacement. Baseball is a stat sport because it's X vs. Y, there are so many more variables in hockey and so much left to uncertainty. You smack one out of the park in baseball, it's a homerun. No matter how perfect of a shot you take, goalie can always interject.
Nailed it. "Moneyball" concepts in hockey are currently shown by teams like Nashville, Phoenix, and St. Louis. They roll three decent scoring lines that can play defense without having super-star forwards. For every one Brad Richards or Zach Parise, teams like St. Louis or Nashville sign three Alex Steen's or Mike Fisher's. Also having a solid pipeline of player's contributing on their ELC's helps keep costs down.

bluemandan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 12:37 PM
  #227
Shrimper
Trick or ruddy treat
 
Shrimper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Essex
Country: United Kingdom
Posts: 72,490
vCash: 50
There's too many variables in hockey for this to work.

Shrimper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 12:39 PM
  #228
digdug41982
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 26,474
vCash: 50
The trap. You could take a team of average players and they can outperform their talent in the standings. Generally, a good defensive player who doesn't put up a lot of offense in underpaid in relation to his contributions to the team winning.

digdug41982 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 12:39 PM
  #229
Missionhockey
Registered User
 
Missionhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: New Jersey
Country: United States
Posts: 7,166
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shrimper View Post
There's too many variables in hockey for this to work.
Are there not variables in baseball in consider as well? Instead of having a hot goalie, having a hot pitcher that can't be hit? Or the weather?

Missionhockey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 12:40 PM
  #230
Talks to Goalposts
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,643
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyOnTheSpot View Post
You ever watch Michael Handzus on the PK? As a Flyers fan, I'd cheer because it broke up cross ice passes for a clean breakaway constantly, then cry when I realized it was the mud monster, and he would be caught before he hit the red line. Takeaways aren't always the best hahaha.

As for Moneyball, it'd never work in the NHL, but the closest I think we see to the concept is the Predators. They continuously ice a competitive team every year, on a budget. They get the most out of the players, and when someone prices out, they manufacture a replacement. Baseball is a stat sport because it's X vs. Y, there are so many more variables in hockey and so much left to uncertainty. You smack one out of the park in baseball, it's a homerun. No matter how perfect of a shot you take, goalie can always interject.


Your making a huge leap from, "its harder than baseball because of X" to "it will never work." That doesn't follow at all.


All it actually means is the methods must be more sophisticated for them to work.


One of the real lessons of "Moneyball" was that you're understanding doesn't need to be perfect to be successful, it just has to be better than your competitors. You don't need a "Grand Unified Theory of Hockey" to have a leg up on other teams, just a better idea of what to value.


If you want to see an actual "Moneypuck" team, it was last year's Kings, who were built exactly the way modern hockey statistical theory said they should, especially on the acquisitions of Penner, Richards and Carter.


Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 11-29-2012 at 12:49 PM.
Talks to Goalposts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 12:44 PM
  #231
Ronk
Registered User
 
Ronk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: San Diego, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 472
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergeron47 View Post
I don't think you can quite follow a statistical method as you can in baseball. Hockey involves more team chemistry & structured systems.
Baseball players are far more independent & consistent with offensive statistics. Barring RBI, a player's teammates have no impact for their at-bat.
The bolded is debatable. As a Dodger fan, watching the pitches Matt Kemp got before and after the acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez was night and day. He just didn't hit them as often with his brain still being splattered on the outfield wall and all.

Ronk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 12:51 PM
  #232
Finlandia WOAT
Do U Like Quebec?
 
Finlandia WOAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Raleigh NC
Country: United States
Posts: 9,567
vCash: 500
Baseball can broken down into multiple 1 on 1 battles between the batter and the pitcher. The analysis of these battles in statistics are what we know as sabremetrics. For this reason alone, it is hard to apply sabremetrics to hockey.

The concept of "Moneyball" was Billy Beane taking players who excelled in this 1 on 1 battle, but had been cast aside by the Major League's due to perceived deficiencies (or actual deficiencies) in their game ("No, but he gets on base.") It meant that, through a new way of looking at baseball, he was able to get players who vastly outperformed their contracts.

For the concept to work in hockey, all we would need is someone who is ahead of the curve and builds a team a completely new way, the likes of which no one has ever seen. We kind of saw this with the 'Canes in 2006, where the forwards were built for speed and success on the powerplay rather than for grit and excellence at even strength. The defense was defense by committee rather than one super defensemen leading the pack like we have seen before and since. But such a concept would be "Moneyball" in name only.

Finlandia WOAT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 12:53 PM
  #233
Shrimper
Trick or ruddy treat
 
Shrimper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Essex
Country: United Kingdom
Posts: 72,490
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Missionhockey View Post
Are there not variables in baseball in consider as well? Instead of having a hot goalie, having a hot pitcher that can't be hit? Or the weather?
A lot more comes into play in hockey though.

Shrimper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 01:09 PM
  #234
Missionhockey
Registered User
 
Missionhockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: New Jersey
Country: United States
Posts: 7,166
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shrimper View Post
A lot more comes into play in hockey though.
The same does with soccer, yet there are Europeam leagues that are considering sabremetrics now too. My point is not to follow the movie to a tee, but have a different, unbiased way to evaluate players other than "he's a hard worker" or "he's a great two-way player" which seem to be subjective IMO.

Missionhockey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 06:15 PM
  #235
Elvs
Registered User
 
Elvs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pitea
Country: Sweden
Posts: 6,871
vCash: 708
I think a method that could be tried is to build a pp/pk team. Meaning that, you only bring in players that are usually good on special teams. But then on the other hand, you could have five players who are historically strong on the power play, and your PP could still end up not clicking at all...

Elvs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 06:27 PM
  #236
PumpkinBomb
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 736
vCash: 500
My opinion of baseball is it really isn't a team sport. It's an individual sport played by a team. Thus individual stats are fairly important. In Hockey team stats are more important.

PumpkinBomb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 06:30 PM
  #237
Pentothal
Listen with one ear
 
Pentothal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: It's not even close
Country: Sweden
Posts: 2,909
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Missionhockey View Post
The same does with soccer, yet there are Europeam leagues that are considering sabremetrics now too. My point is not to follow the movie to a tee, but have a different, unbiased way to evaluate players other than "he's a hard worker" or "he's a great two-way player" which seem to be subjective IMO.
Well, Liverpool tried.. and it was a disaster.

It doesn't seem to work nearly as well in more dynamic sports like soccer and hockey.

Pentothal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 07:53 PM
  #238
Mathletic
Registered User
 
Mathletic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: St-Augustin, Québec
Country: Canada
Posts: 12,241
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pentothal View Post
Well, Liverpool tried.. and it was a disaster.

It doesn't seem to work nearly as well in more dynamic sports like soccer and hockey.
works just fine for Machester City, Chelsea and Seattle

Mathletic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-29-2012, 09:19 PM
  #239
P U L L H A R D
 
P U L L H A R D's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Ottawa
Country: Somalia
Posts: 24,462
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyOnTheSpot View Post
You ever watch Michael Handzus on the PK? As a Flyers fan, I'd cheer because it broke up cross ice passes for a clean breakaway constantly, then cry when I realized it was the mud monster, and he would be caught before he hit the red line. Takeaways aren't always the best hahaha.

As for Moneyball, it'd never work in the NHL, but the closest I think we see to the concept is the Predators. They continuously ice a competitive team every year, on a budget. They get the most out of the players, and when someone prices out, they manufacture a replacement. Baseball is a stat sport because it's X vs. Y, there are so many more variables in hockey and so much left to uncertainty. You smack one out of the park in baseball, it's a homerun. No matter how perfect of a shot you take, goalie can always interject.
Maybe going deeper, players with the best takeaway/giveaway ratio, matched with logic (Handzus is good defensively, but as a GM, I don't expect him to be a key contributor offensively)

P U L L H A R D is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2012, 12:22 AM
  #240
Talks to Goalposts
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,643
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eternal Sunshine View Post
Maybe going deeper, players with the best takeaway/giveaway ratio, matched with logic (Handzus is good defensively, but as a GM, I don't expect him to be a key contributor offensively)
I'd think anything with real time stats like hits, takeaways, and giveaways are missing the point. What you need to be looking at is goals against and what leads to that. Don't get too wrapped up in what ends up being a matter of style rather than substance.

Talks to Goalposts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2012, 12:58 AM
  #241
P U L L H A R D
 
P U L L H A R D's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Ottawa
Country: Somalia
Posts: 24,462
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
I'd think anything with real time stats like hits, takeaways, and giveaways are missing the point. What you need to be looking at is goals against and what leads to that. Don't get too wrapped up in what ends up being a matter of style rather than substance.
Well, its all about context. And yeah, hockey is harder to narrow down than baseball, but there could be a method to it. I did a project like this in high school about best bang for your buck players. Excluding ELCs, the best players were the expensive ones. Yes, they cost a lot, but there is a reason for that. I think the only one making not much money was Parise because he was on his 2nd contract at the time IIRC. I'm a little fuzzy, it was about 5 or 6 years ago, but I'm just trying to think outside of that box with this. There has to be a somewhat accurate way to measure puck pursuit.

P U L L H A R D is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2012, 08:03 PM
  #242
Pentothal
Listen with one ear
 
Pentothal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: It's not even close
Country: Sweden
Posts: 2,909
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
works just fine for Machester City, Chelsea and Seattle
I have no idea about Seattle, but Manchester City and Chelsea are basically doped clubs spending their sugar daddies money on the latest shiny toy, over and over again. Can't really see how their transfer strategies relate to money ball.

Pentothal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
11-30-2012, 09:12 PM
  #243
Mathletic
Registered User
 
Mathletic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: St-Augustin, Québec
Country: Canada
Posts: 12,241
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pentothal View Post
I have no idea about Seattle, but Manchester City and Chelsea are basically doped clubs spending their sugar daddies money on the latest shiny toy, over and over again. Can't really see how their transfer strategies relate to money ball.
I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert on soccer analytics ... or simply soccer ... but moneyball isn't really about not spending money. It's more about objective analysis than anything else. There's a bunch of big spending baseball teams that can't win ... i.e. Cubs and Mets ...

That said, I kept an article on soccer analytics from last summer. I read it quickly but it seemed interesting, may you'd want to take a look.

http://theshinguardian.com/2012/08/3...cs-roundtable/

Mathletic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-10-2013, 10:25 AM
  #244
Prototype
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 147
vCash: 500
It would be interesting to see stats on pass attempts vs. pass completion %. This is a fairly common metric in soccer, and can shed some insight to team play success.

The more successful touches in a zone often lead to higher scoring chances.

Prototype is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-10-2013, 11:22 AM
  #245
struckbyaparkedcar
Zemgus Da Gawd
 
struckbyaparkedcar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Upstate NY
Country: Cote DIvoire
Posts: 10,768
vCash: 500
I searched Phoenix and was floored to find one result.

They supposedly got killed trading Wolski for Roszival. Roszival ended last season on the top pairing. They picked up Antoine Vermette for picks during his worst season in Columbus, and he led the team in playoff goals. Korpikoski turned into a great defensive forward. Vrbata found his game again. Klesla stayed relatively healthy. Gordon turned into a solid third liner after a decidedly meh career in Washington. Ray Whitney was an absurd value. And don't even get me started about Mike Smith.

They've also been more forthcoming about their use of advanced statistics (Gordon racked up QoC numbers with the Caps despite being used sparsely, for example) than any team I can think of.

struckbyaparkedcar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-10-2013, 12:06 PM
  #246
ot92s
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 739
vCash: 500
I would like individual puck possesion numbers.

Or you could even chain them together. Like, say chara digs the puck ou of the corner, hits bergy on the breakout, who the weaves and dishes to seguin. The posession clock would start once chara controls it and each player in the chain gets credit for the possesion until it is turned over.

ot92s is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-10-2013, 12:21 PM
  #247
johnunit
Registered User
 
johnunit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Shelton
Country: Canada
Posts: 586
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to johnunit
The problem with hockey is that it's not a boring enough sport to be dominated by stats

johnunit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-10-2013, 01:23 PM
  #248
Thesensation19
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 2,534
vCash: 500
I believe hockey is missing a stat and it could be very easy to fix.

NHL (hockey) should start keeping track of primary and secondary assists rather than all any assist is just an assist.

So you would really tell the difference between guys who truly set up a player for a goal and a player who just gets the puck out of a zone. It could be done like NBA rebounds. You have a total amount of rebounds (assists) calculated but you can easily compare ones offensive to defensive rebounds (primary to secondary assists).

I wonder who would have the most

Thesensation19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-10-2013, 01:26 PM
  #249
Thesensation19
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 2,534
vCash: 500
For those who mentioned the Vancouver GM and his approach with the Nucks... I never heard anything about money ball method but Vancouver has heavily focused on new sleep methods. A company that has studied sleep has come up with new methods to provide better and more sleep for anyone including pro athletes. Players are fine with it and teams are happy with the stats that show it has helped them improve their Winning % especially on the road

Thesensation19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
01-10-2013, 01:47 PM
  #250
Thesensation19
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 2,534
vCash: 500
The closest thing to Moneyball for hockey

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2...ite-nhl-teams/

2010

Thesensation19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:41 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.