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Old
12-01-2012, 11:22 PM
  #851
surixon
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Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
Didn't you do some analysis that showed that Burmistrov's numbers last year were pretty comparable to Couturier's?

And yet SC is one of HF's golden boys and a sure fire all-star, and some people here want to lament the play of Burmistrov?

Guarantee that if the Jets win a cup, the same constantly negative people on here will have problems with the way someone carried the cup around the ice.
I'm no fan of Couturier but last year was his rookie year and he was a year younger to boot. We shouldn't be happy that he is performing similarly to rookies, we should expect a little more progression from him. For example the same Couturier has 17 points in 18 games and triple the number of goals, Schenn has 22 in 20. Going to his draft year the offensive players drafted close to him Connelly has 7g and 17 points in 19 games, Neideriter has 10g and 20 points in 19, Granlund had 12 points in 8 games. He is starting to get passed offensively by his peers. I have no problem with his defensive game, but I was hoping to see him take a step forward offensively like a number of the players I listed above, granted he still has time. BobE has it correct in that he is going to start to get pushed for offensive minutes by Scheifele who is progressing at a quick rate, not to mention he will have a massive uphill battle to earn offensive minutes on the Jets this year with the number of players ahead of him.

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12-01-2012, 11:24 PM
  #852
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Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Hahahaha... No that's fair, i've sent plenty of arrows aimed in Burmi's direction. But, I know the coaching staff seems pleased with his play, and that's likely the main thing at this point.

Am i disappointed, ya, but more curious as to why he's not producing right now. It's important that he does produce - goals/points, etc. - as well as play a solid defensive game.

Honestly, truck's post about this being too small a sample size hit home, a bit. I'll sit back and see how the rest of his time there (hopefully short) goes.
To be honest, I'm a little disappointed he doesn't have more points either. I'm just trying to keep myself in perspective.

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12-01-2012, 11:24 PM
  #853
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I am not suprised you like him Bob I think most posters do they are just frustrated. I would like to see his offense progress and I believe it will but that is not my primary concern this season.

My feelings are that if he can have a good year in the Jets top 9 anywhere (tweener 3rd 2nd liner) then He will be happy. I honestly think if he could play consistantly with Poni and Antro on our 3rd unit he could have an impactful year where he shows real statistical progression. I also like the idea of him playing with two veterans from the Eastern block where the communication skills would be a non issue. I think that combined with his stint in the AHL with prime minutes could make for a really diverse development year that could help him grow. I like the idea of Alex playing a simple cycle, puck possession, shut down game with two big bodies like Poni and Antro. I seem him fitting well and being a nice compliment to that group. that could be a great 3rd line.
I agree, ps.

That said, if there isn't NHL hockey this year, both Poni and Antro are without a contract for next year. So, I'm hoping the Jets sign both to deals (likely 1 or 2 yrs), to play with Burmi on 3rd line that should win many line match-ups, once hockey returns.

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12-01-2012, 11:42 PM
  #854
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Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
I agree, ps.

That said, if there isn't NHL hockey this year, both Poni and Antro are without a contract for next year. So, I'm hoping the Jets sign both to deals (likely 1 or 2 yrs), to play with Burmi on 3rd line that should win many line match-ups, once hockey returns.
Yea I would be in favor of that. I think the bigget hole last year was our 3rd line, we just didn't have one and too often we asked our 4th line to fill the roll.

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12-01-2012, 11:51 PM
  #855
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Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Last year, Burmi and SC numbers were almost identical.

This year, SC has 6 gs/11 as/17 pts in 18 gms - so that's a bit different. That's why i'm having a hard time with Burmi's numbers this year in the AHL.
Burmi and SC put up similar numbers against similar competition, but SC had a lot less Ice time. Nerdier numbers seem to put SC on par with a year two E Kane offensively and a year two Burmi defensively. SC did it as an 18 year old. Impressive stuff IMO.

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12-01-2012, 11:51 PM
  #856
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
I'm no fan of Couturier but last year was his rookie year and he was a year younger to boot. We shouldn't be happy that he is performing similarly to rookies, we should expect a little more progression from him. For example the same Couturier has 17 points in 18 games and triple the number of goals, Schenn has 22 in 20. Going to his draft year the offensive players drafted close to him Connelly has 7g and 17 points in 19 games, Neideriter has 10g and 20 points in 19, Granlund had 12 points in 8 games. He is starting to get passed offensively by his peers. I have no problem with his defensive game, but I was hoping to see him take a step forward offensively like a number of the players I listed above, granted he still has time. BobE has it correct in that he is going to start to get pushed for offensive minutes by Scheifele who is progressing at a quick rate, not to mention he will have a massive uphill battle to earn offensive minutes on the Jets this year with the number of players ahead of him.
Burmistrov is 1 year older than SC. How can one be the be all and end all future all-star, and the other a potential "maybe"? That's a massive disparity in expectations based on similar seasons. 1 year in age doesn't justify that much variance IMO.

I don't think we should also forget about what happened in the NHL last year and just look at the last 22 AHL games.

Connolly and Niederrider did absolutely nothing last year. After 22 AHL games I have a hard time justifying saying they are passing Burmistrov.

As for getting passed by his peers, Kadri, Glennie, Kassian, Holland, Leblanc, Josefson, Schroeder, Caron, Palmieri, Paradis, and Ashton are all 1st round picks, all a year older than Burmistrov, and all have done less.

And basically everyone from his own draft besides Hall, Seguin, Skinner, Granlund, Tarasenko, and Kuznetsov are behind Burmistrov as well.

I'm not saying Burmistrov is a guaranteed future NHL star who's going to be putting up multiple all-star seasons. Maybe he makes it, maybe he doesn't. Just that ignoring the pretty good season he had last year (even with him probably being physically not ready), and using a 22 game AHL sample size to worry about his lack of growth seems a little needlessly premature. Especially when there are very, very few players in his draft and even the draft before that are outperforming him so far.

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12-02-2012, 12:03 AM
  #857
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Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
To be honest, I'm a little disappointed he doesn't have more points either. I'm just trying to keep myself in perspective.
I am disappointed that the numbers haven't started stacking up too, but the shots are and many people say Burmi was the best player on the ice after games. I have said repeatedly that I think it is poor puck luck. I still do.

Burmistrov scored on 10% of his shots last year in the NHL year. He has scored on 3.9% this year along side players like Machacek and Maxwell who are struggling similarly. No shooter is that bad at this level.

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12-02-2012, 12:06 AM
  #858
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Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
Burmistrov is 1 year older than SC. How can one be the be all and end all future all-star, and the other a potential "maybe"? That's a massive disparity in expectations based on similar seasons. 1 year in age doesn't justify that much variance IMO.

I don't think we should also forget about what happened in the NHL last year and just look at the last 22 AHL games.

Connolly and Niederrider did absolutely nothing last year. After 22 AHL games I have a hard time justifying saying they are passing Burmistrov.

As for getting passed by his peers, Kadri, Glennie, Kassian, Holland, Leblanc, Josefson, Schroeder, Caron, Palmieri, Paradis, and Ashton are all 1st round picks, all a year older than Burmistrov, and all have done less.

And basically everyone from his own draft besides Hall, Seguin, Skinner, Granlund, Tarasenko, and Kuznetsov are behind Burmistrov as well.

I'm not saying Burmistrov is a guaranteed future NHL star who's going to be putting up multiple all-star seasons. Maybe he makes it, maybe he doesn't. Just that ignoring the pretty good season he had last year (even with him probably being physically not ready), and using a 22 game AHL sample size to worry about his lack of growth seems a little needlessly premature. Especially when there are very, very few players in his draft and even the draft before that are outperforming him so far.
So much this!!

Would like to add Niederreiter had some of the worst puck luck ever last year. Worse than our own Eric Fehr

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12-02-2012, 12:05 PM
  #859
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Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
Burmistrov is 1 year older than SC. How can one be the be all and end all future all-star, and the other a potential "maybe"? That's a massive disparity in expectations based on similar seasons. 1 year in age doesn't justify that much variance IMO.

I don't think we should also forget about what happened in the NHL last year and just look at the last 22 AHL games.

Connolly and Niederrider did absolutely nothing last year. After 22 AHL games I have a hard time justifying saying they are passing Burmistrov.

As for getting passed by his peers, Kadri, Glennie, Kassian, Holland, Leblanc, Josefson, Schroeder, Caron, Palmieri, Paradis, and Ashton are all 1st round picks, all a year older than Burmistrov, and all have done less.

And basically everyone from his own draft besides Hall, Seguin, Skinner, Granlund, Tarasenko, and Kuznetsov are behind Burmistrov as well.

I'm not saying Burmistrov is a guaranteed future NHL star who's going to be putting up multiple all-star seasons. Maybe he makes it, maybe he doesn't. Just that ignoring the pretty good season he had last year (even with him probably being physically not ready), and using a 22 game AHL sample size to worry about his lack of growth seems a little needlessly premature. Especially when there are very, very few players in his draft and even the draft before that are outperforming him so far.
Fair enough. My main issue is that Couturier started at the same level as Burmistrov last year as a younger player and so far this year looks to have taken a bigger step forward offensively. IMO he is widening the gap between himself and Burmie. One year can make a massive difference in development if one player improves substantially and the other holds steady.

I agree a number of the players I mentioned performed worse the he did last year, many of which were in their first year of professional hockey and that makes a difference. The most telling sign is that all these guys have taken a step forward this year offensively while Burmistrov has not. You may feel the sample size is too small and that's fine, but if this continues throughout the year are you still going to be happy as more players either close the gap or pass him? I know I won't be, its all about progression and imo he's shown very little of it offensively. You may think I'm being harsh, but I give less leeway to a third year pro than I do to a first and second year pro. In the end I want him to succeed just as much as the rest of you, but I'm not going to pretend that his development is going great, he's starting look more and more like a very good third liner than a top 6 forward.

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12-02-2012, 06:34 PM
  #860
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
Fair enough. My main issue is that Couturier started at the same level as Burmistrov last year as a younger player and so far this year looks to have taken a bigger step forward offensively. IMO he is widening the gap between himself and Burmie. One year can make a massive difference in development if one player improves substantially and the other holds steady.

I agree a number of the players I mentioned performed worse the he did last year, many of which were in their first year of professional hockey and that makes a difference. The most telling sign is that all these guys have taken a step forward this year offensively while Burmistrov has not. You may feel the sample size is too small and that's fine, but if this continues throughout the year are you still going to be happy as more players either close the gap or pass him? I know I won't be, its all about progression and imo he's shown very little of it offensively. You may think I'm being harsh, but I give less leeway to a third year pro than I do to a first and second year pro. In the end I want him to succeed just as much as the rest of you, but I'm not going to pretend that his development is going great, he's starting look more and more like a very good third liner than a top 6 forward.
That all makes sense.

Regarding SC and Burmi, my point is that I think it's a little overly critical, or selective reasoning if you will, to choose 1 guy (SC) to use as the basis to decide that Burmi is not progressing, while purposely ignoring Burmi's draft class as well as the one before and after is all.

It might not seem like it, but I also agree with your second paragraph. If Burmi doesn't progress over a longer body of work, then it might look more and more that he might turn out to be more of a defensive 3rd liner than a top 6 point getter. I just think that using the 22 game AHL sample size (and all the issues with the Ice Caps), and ignoring last season in the NHL (for Burmi and the other players in his age group), seems like purposely looking for reasons to be pessimistic.

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12-02-2012, 07:24 PM
  #861
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No worries fellas, Burmi can be our third line centre behind Schief and Zajac when he signs here or we can just go with this for our top three lines instead.

Ladd Zajac Wheeler
Kane Jokinen Little
Poni Schief Burmi

...and yes Ive had a few but I have had to after reading some of the posts on here!

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12-02-2012, 11:03 PM
  #862
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Originally Posted by puck stoppa View Post
No worries fellas, Burmi can be our third line centre behind Schief and Zajac when he signs here or we can just go with this for our top three lines instead.

Ladd Zajac Wheeler
Kane Jokinen Little
Poni Schief Burmi

...and yes Ive had a few but I have had to after reading some of the posts on here!
Winner winner chicken dinner!

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12-03-2012, 02:39 AM
  #863
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Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
I'm sure you'll find some good comparisons based on usage.

For arguments sake, it would be nice to see how he compared against players used in the same way (ice time, zone starts, etc), and also against guys in his age class (Johansen, Niederreiter, Connolly, B Schenn, Kassian, Leblanc, Johansson, Josefson, MPS, etc).
Did as you requested....

->Here<- is the post at the Burmi thread where I compare him (both NHL last season and AHL this season) to players in his age class that you listed

->Here<- is behindthenet showing all the players in the NHL that faced similar competition and zonestarts. As you can see, Burmistrov is 6th of 36 for RelCorsi and raw Corsi. (Kane is 5th)




Quote:
Originally Posted by puck stoppa View Post
No worries fellas, Burmi can be our third line centre behind Schief and Zajac when he signs here or we can just go with this for our top three lines instead.

Ladd Zajac Wheeler
Kane Jokinen Little
Poni Schief Burmi

...and yes Ive had a few but I have had to after reading some of the posts on here!
Holly frick that be sweet... and then we some how trick Van to trade Tanev to us for Miettinen, Thorburn and Clitsome haha
I might change it around:

Tough O: Ladd Zajac Wheeler
Sheltered: Kane Scheifele Jokinen
Tough D: Poni Little Burmi
Sheltered: Antro Slater Welly
Spares: Machecek/Cormier

Tough O: Enstrom Byfuglien
Tough D: Tanev Bogosian
Sheltered: Stuart Hainsey
Spare: Postma

We could win a cup with that sigh...


Last edited by garret9: 12-03-2012 at 03:26 AM.
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12-03-2012, 06:50 AM
  #864
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I might change it around:

Tough O: Ladd Zajac Wheeler
Sheltered: Kane Scheifele Jokinen
Tough D: Poni Little Burmi
Sheltered: Antro Slater Welly
Spares: Machecek/Cormier

Tough O: Enstrom Byfuglien
Tough D: Tanev Bogosian
Sheltered: Stuart Hainsey
Spare: Postma

We could win a cup with that sigh...
Me likey, and I agree you could win a cup with that lineup. Look at youir 4th line, for instance - that line could shut down OR pitch in with scoring. The 2nd line is VERY interesting as well - they would either blow chunks, or light up the league - if you don't get the last line change, you might see some tough matchups for them. On the flipside - that first line would most likely score very consistently, so shut down the 2nd line at your peril. 3rd line would be nasty to play against - g'luck with the opposition escaping the forecheck and keeping possession of the puck when they're on the ice.

Ok - where do we sign?

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12-03-2012, 08:40 AM
  #865
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
Me likey, and I agree you could win a cup with that lineup. Look at youir 4th line, for instance - that line could shut down OR pitch in with scoring. The 2nd line is VERY interesting as well - they would either blow chunks, or light up the league - if you don't get the last line change, you might see some tough matchups for them. On the flipside - that first line would most likely score very consistently, so shut down the 2nd line at your peril. 3rd line would be nasty to play against - g'luck with the opposition escaping the forecheck and keeping possession of the puck when they're on the ice.

Ok - where do we sign?

Right here: _____________________________
(use permanent marker)

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12-03-2012, 10:43 AM
  #866
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It doesn't help that he's not producing points. At some point, Jets management will look to replace him with someone who can play well defensively AND produce points. That's just common sense.

Edit: warning, the following rant is slightly dated in terms of where the discussion is, i just caught got caught up now after posting.

Now 3 months into his AHL tenue, i'm sure there are no "trade Burmi" chants going on with Jets management, but they will want to produce some points soon. To say otherwise is crazy. Maybe he needs another year in the AHL, that's fine, but if Burmi is a 10 g scorer in the AHL or NHL, he'll be replaced. Fact of life.
Sorry bob, generally i agree with you but this really gets my goat.

58% of players drafted between 6th-10th overall NEVER post more then (or even) one 45 pt season.

So your right, maybe the jets should ship Burmi out for someone who can be defensive and produce. In that case we should also ship out Jim slater, and pretty much our entire bottom 6.

This logis leads to a general assumption is that 60% of every top 6-10 picks should get traded off their team. Why? Because their not living up to an expectation that isn't even realistic?

This is the main problem. YES burmi has sick hands. Yes he can be a puck control wiz. This does not mean offense is the only thing he can do. As stated a billion times in this thread he is already a very good 3rd line player. At where he was drafted, realistic expectations say that's par for the course.

I get that because of his hands and puck control it seems like he can become an offensive force and should be, but the reality is he's an outside shot to do that, and always has been.

one of our posters had a great analogy last year about getting mad at your cat for not fetching a stick. I think the same thing is happening here. I mean, yes, we can be dissapointed for him NOT being an offensive force, but the reality is the odds were always against him to succeed in that role, perhaps we should be more disappointed in ourselves for letting our over-exuberant expectations cloud our judgement?

How upset do you get when you lose betting black/red at roulette? you've got better odds of winning there then Burmi does of being an offensive force. Bemoan his production in the AHL all you want (i won't lie, i was hoping for progression as well), but he HAS shown to be a very efficient middle to bottom 6 player already. I had hoped the offense would improve as well, but it was less likely then the alternative, something most of seem to be oblivious to.



...sorry about the rant


Last edited by Grind: 12-03-2012 at 11:24 AM.
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12-03-2012, 10:57 AM
  #867
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Sorry bob, generally i agree with you but this really gets my goat.

58% of players drafted between 6th-10th overall NEVER post more then (or even) one 45 pt season.

So your right, maybe the jets should ship Burmi out for someone who can be defensive and produce. In that case we should also ship out Jim slater, and pretty much our entire bottom 6.

This logis leads to a general assumption is that 60% of every top 6-10 picks should get traded off their team. Why? Because their not living up to an expectation that isn't even realistic?

This is the main problem. YES burmi has sick hands. Yes he can be a puck control wiz. This does not mean offense is the only thing he can do. As stated a billion times in this thread he is already a very good 3rd line player. At where he was drafted, realistic expectations say that's par for the course.

I get that because of his hands and puck control it seems like he can become an offensive force and should be, but the reality is he's an outside shot to do that, and always has been.

one of our posters had a great analogy last year about getting mad at your cat for not fetching a stick. I think the same thing is happening here. I mean, yes, we can be dissapointed for him NOT being an offensive force, but the reality is the odds were always against him to succeed in that role, perhaps we should be more disappointed in ourselves for letting our over-exuberant expectations cloud our judgement?

How upset do you get when you lose betting black/red at roulette? you've got better odds of winning there then Burmi does of being an offensive force. Bemoan his production in the AHL all you want (i won't lie, i was hoping for progression as well), but he HAS shown to be a very efficient middle to bottom 6 player already. I had hoped the offense would improve as well, but it was less likely then the alternative, something most of seem to be oblivious to.



...sorry about the rant
On top of all that...

Burmi is dirt cheap. His cap hit is 1.5MM and he will probably be retained for less the $2,383,333 that Little has been playing for or the $2.5ish that Bogo and Wheeler have been playing for. Burmi is already a very good player for that price and he has a chance to out perform that deal in a big way.

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12-03-2012, 11:53 AM
  #868
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In regards to Burmi, all this talk, comparisons to player x and y, manipulation of facts and figures, wishes upon a star etc. don't amount to a hill of beans until he can figure out how to score and become a play-maker at even the AHL level.

The worst part of this lockout is realizing how thinly stocked our talent pool is in St. Johns, boggles my mind that after years of favourable draft position aside from Redmond, Postma and maybe Couture and Klingberg the cupboard is pretty bare. Thought Maxwell and Machacek played well for the Jets late in the season but watching them this year you wonder if there NHL ready, both are turning 25 this season about the time in a career where it's make or break.


Last edited by sipowicz: 12-03-2012 at 12:06 PM.
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12-03-2012, 01:07 PM
  #869
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In regards to Burmi, all this talk, comparisons to player x and y, manipulation of facts and figures, wishes upon a star etc. don't amount to a hill of beans until he can figure out how to score and become a play-maker at even the AHL level.

The worst part of this lockout is realizing how thinly stocked our talent pool is in St. Johns, boggles my mind that after years of favourable draft position aside from Redmond, Postma and maybe Couture and Klingberg the cupboard is pretty bare. Thought Maxwell and Machacek played well for the Jets late in the season but watching them this year you wonder if there NHL ready, both are turning 25 this season about the time in a career where it's make or break.
Gonna assume you meant Cormier not Couture.

It's not like the Thrashers' last three drafts were bad.

2008:
Zach Bogosian in the 1st and he is a core player. 264 NHL GP
Zach Redmond in the 7th who look like an NHLer.
Daultan Leveille didn't pan out, but the Jets netted a compensatory pick.
Vinny Saponari is still in the system.

2009:
Evander Kane in the 1st and he is a core player. 213 NHL GP
Carl Klingberg in the 2nd who still has some NHL upside. 7 NHL GP
Eddie Pasquale in the 4th. He looks good.
Cody Sol and JST came later.

2010:
Alexander Burmistrov was drafted 8th and has progressed on par with or better than most of his draft class. 150 NHL GP
Julian Melchiori looks like he has a shot.
Ivan Telegin looks like he has top 6 upside.

The main reason our prospect pool looks poor is that youngsters like Bogo, Burmi and Kane skipped the prospect stage and went straight to being NHLers.


If you look at "deep" prospect pools like that of the Florida Panthers...

2008:
2nd round pick Jacob Markstrom is a very good young goalie. 8 NHL GP
2nd round pick Colby Robak solid defender at the AHL level. 3 NHL GP

2009:
1st round pick Dmitri Kulikov is a full time roster player. 198 NHL GP.
2nd round pick Drew Shore very solid prospect in the AHL. 0 NHL GP

2010:
1st round pick Erik Gudbranson is a contributing NHLer. 72 NHL GP
1st round pick Nick Bjugstad is a high end prospect. 0 NHL GP
1st round pick Quinton Howden is a solid prospect. 0 NHL GP
2nd round pick John McFarland is a solid prospect. 0NHL GP
2nd round pick Alex Petrovic is a solid prospect. 0 NHL GP



Only 16 players from the 2010 draft have played a single NHL game.

Only 2 players from the 2010 draft have played in more games than Burmi.

There are maybe 7 players from that draft that have I would trade Burmi for right now.



Blah blah blah Burmi sucks.

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12-03-2012, 01:14 PM
  #870
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On this we agree.

These things take time and itís tough when you are handed a team with a pretty empty prospect cupboard or should we say the youthful talent is already on the parent club and being relied upon.

When Scheifele hits the parent club he will represent the 1st of the TNSE "draft and develop" graduates. After that I think we begin to get a slow steady diet of NHL ready talent from our system.
Yeah. None of this rushing the draft picks bull**** that ASG did with their picks. We're lucky that Bogosian was able to be brought back from the brink of ruin. Burmi and Kane are still suffering the effects of it. :/

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12-03-2012, 01:19 PM
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Yeah. None of this rushing the draft picks bull**** that ASG did with their picks. We're lucky that Bogosian was able to be brought back from the brink of ruin. Burmi and Kane are still suffering the effects of it. :/
Please elaborate. In that draft, the entire top 4 played in the NHL from the start, and all four has been fairly successful. I think I would trade Kane for one player that was drafted later than him that year. It's not like 20 year old 30 goal scorers grows on trees.

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12-03-2012, 01:23 PM
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Please elaborate. In that draft, the entire top 4 played in the NHL from the start, and all four has been fairly successful. I think I would trade Kane for one player that was drafted later than him that year. It's not like 20 year old 30 goal scorers grows on trees.
Agreed Romang.

I'm all for sheltering our prospects until they are ready... but if they are ready to make a difference, then it's not rushing them.
Kane was ready for the NHL and did quite well his first season.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...7+17+18+19+20#

He faced tougher competition in his rookie year than he did last season and still scored at nearly a goal every 60 mins of ice time.

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12-03-2012, 02:08 PM
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Please elaborate. In that draft, the entire top 4 played in the NHL from the start, and all four has been fairly successful. I think I would trade Kane for one player that was drafted later than him that year. It's not like 20 year old 30 goal scorers grows on trees.
Never said anything about trading him. I like the kid, though I wish he would stop trying to drive up the board, only to be rubbed out around the blue line.

Honestly, I am ignorant of how Kane's draft class was handled, and coupled with everyone's belief that ASG rushed their prospects, I figured that the same was with Kane. Advanced stats also confuses the hell out me, so a lot of that Rel Corsi stuff is pure gibberish. I know a number of you can crunch numbers like crazy, but I prefer to just watch the games and cry when they suck.

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12-03-2012, 02:39 PM
  #874
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Never said anything about trading him. I like the kid, though I wish he would stop trying to drive up the board, only to be rubbed out around the blue line.

Honestly, I am ignorant of how Kane's draft class was handled, and coupled with everyone's belief that ASG rushed their prospects, I figured that the same was with Kane. Advanced stats also confuses the hell out me, so a lot of that Rel Corsi stuff is pure gibberish. I know a number of you can crunch numbers like crazy, but I prefer to just watch the games and cry when they suck.
ok the bolded part made me really laugh Newt

I have to admit in the beginning of last season I didn't understand or like advanced stats but I am really starting to enjoy them as long as garret is doing the work . For me my eye was more than enough to convict fat Buff of abandonment as I watched him coast back into a play late that he had overcommitted in the O zone on for the umpteenth time hanging Toby out to dry. It drove me crazy and I was convinced he was a liability. I wish Buff was more fit but his numbers are much better than I thought they would be and I don't think we can afford to give up what he brings to our offense.........yet

Here's the rub for me on advanced stats vs the naked eye...........I actually love being proved wrong and I have found that my eye is pretty solid but when it is covered with rose colored lenses (or a tainted lenses) it doesn't work that well. I thought GST was better than they were but they really sucked, or should I say they were asked to do too much. I love Stuie but he is a liability if he is asked to fill in on the top 4. Toby is very good statistically and the fact he is small is not nearly as big a deal as some make it out to be. I think The Haines gets sold short big time on our board (maybe its to do with his contract) but I would like to see us sign him up to a 2 year extension and weld him to Bogo when Zach gets back. If not we better replace him with a equal level shut down veteran defender. These are a just a few of the things I was wrong about by "just watching" last year.

I am now a big fan of the advanced stats and am trying to learn more and more.........for now I am reading all the posts and I think I get it now.......next stage in my development is when I am able to go to "behind the net" and establish criteria and run scenarios. A perfect example of how to use them well was over on the main board on a Montreal Winnipeg thread there was some comparison of Bogo and Subban and a Habs poster showed some advanced stats that seemed to prove Subban was better than Bogo and Garret did a very good job of going deeper on the numbers and showing allot of the stats were skewed by the fact Subban has a stable talented D partner in Gorges that really helped him and if you looked closer at Bogo his numbers were every bit as good when he was playing with Hainsey but took a beating when he played with Stuie. I am not doing it justice but it was a great debate and I learned allot.

They are not the end all be all (and most advanced stats guys would tell you this) but they are a great tool to add to what you see.

one last thing: Players make mistakes and we can get down on them.....we forget very few guys are truly elite so it's great to be able to have advanced stats to measure a player like Toby when posters are getting down on him. You look closer and he is a very good defenseman and he is definatly top pairing level and you realize he probably gets judged harshly by some of our posters. Sure he is not a prime Chris Pronger but you know what, there just are not many prime Chris Prongers out there and that is why it is nice to be able to compare him to others through advanced stats.


Last edited by ps241: 12-03-2012 at 02:48 PM.
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12-03-2012, 02:53 PM
  #875
Romang67
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Never said anything about trading him. I like the kid, though I wish he would stop trying to drive up the board, only to be rubbed out around the blue line.

Honestly, I am ignorant of how Kane's draft class was handled, and coupled with everyone's belief that ASG rushed their prospects, I figured that the same was with Kane. Advanced stats also confuses the hell out me, so a lot of that Rel Corsi stuff is pure gibberish. I know a number of you can crunch numbers like crazy, but I prefer to just watch the games and cry when they suck.
Nah, the trading was just to give a taste of how well he has progressed compared to his peers since he was drafted.

I just was a bit confused when it seemed like you thought that Kane was a disappointment and would have been much better with some seasoning in the juniors.

And yeah, the advanced stats confuses me too! I probably should learn them, since I like stats and am a fast learner, but I just am way too lazy!

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