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2012-13 Lockout Discussion Part VIII: "The 11th Hour" Edition

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Old
12-01-2012, 10:07 PM
  #51
Beacon
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Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze View Post
I disagree. Pro sports is the industry. The NHL, MLB, NFL, and NBA are the companies.

NHL franchises only compete on the ice. The goal of the Rangers is not to run the Ducks out of business. It is to cooperatively build a superb on-ice product that wins the advertising and gate revenue dollars against what the other leagues have to offer.

A healthy NHL needs healthy franchises with a wide geographic footprint. Right now there are major disagreements on how to achieve that.

The Rangers want to take fans away from the Islanders and the Devils, and to a lesser degree from the rest of the league. In the early to mid 90s, half the basketball fans around the United States were claiming to be Bulls fans. There were Bulls caps all over my high school and college at the time. All that took revenue from the Knicks and other teams, and gave this revenue to the Bulls owners.

The NHL consists of 30 rich guys who each benefit by defeating the other 29 people. The more a team advances into the playoffs, the more caps and tshirts it sells, etc., the more profit it makes.

But all of this is theoretical.

Let's look at how it will work in real life. Let's say that if my team makes $100 million a year, then I have to "share" $30, but if my team makes $75, then I have to share only $5. You know what I would do as the owner? I would spend that money before giving it to someone else. Waste it, I don't care. I'm better off spending it on ornaments around the stadium, higher salaries for everyone, employee parties (birthday, Christmas, Friday evenings), donations to my favorite charities and politicians, and for every other reason possible. At least this way, I will get greater loyalty of my employees, fans, politicians and city residents. I would get some benefit out of spending the money. Why would I just give it to Wang?

All the profitable owners will do the same thing, resulting in the destruction of the league's revenue.

This is called the Tragedy of the Commons. And it is the by-product of socialism. So whatever you want to call this: socialism, redistribution of wealth, sharing, being nice - the result is still the same tragedy of the commons.


Last edited by Beacon: 12-01-2012 at 10:16 PM.
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12-01-2012, 10:23 PM
  #52
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Beacon, the Tragedy of Commons is incredibly easy to avoid in the NHL's case. First of all, don't make the difference in revenue sharing so wide. Second of all, don't base the amount you give on the amount you bring in. This isn't a tax we're talking about. The top 5 teams in revenue draw give $X. The next 5 teams give $X-Y. The next 5 teams give $Y-Z. It's that simple.

The Tragedy of Commons specifically refers to unmanaged situations, as the creator of it himself admits. That wouldn't be the case.

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12-01-2012, 10:37 PM
  #53
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Beacon, the Tragedy of Commons is incredibly easy to avoid in the NHL's case. First of all, don't make the difference in revenue sharing so wide. Second of all, don't base the amount you give on the amount you bring in. This isn't a tax we're talking about. The top 5 teams in revenue draw give $X. The next 5 teams give $X-Y. The next 5 teams give $Y-Z. It's that simple.

The Tragedy of Commons specifically refers to unmanaged situations, as the creator of it himself admits. That wouldn't be the case.

Ok, very nice, so if I'm running a team, I try to keep my ticket prices lower than I could've charged and just avoid fixing up the stadium, allowing the overall experience to drop, but hey, the tickets are cheaper so people will still come, and I don't need the headache of creating a top-notch product.

For the other stuff, I start other companies that sell something in the stadium. Theoretically, these companies aren't mine (they are in my wife's or brother's name), so they don't count as revenue. Therefore, all the hot dogs, jerseys, etc. that are sold aren't part of the team revenue.

The result of all this would be a race to the bottom on who makes the least amount of money. The NHL will start to look like rent-controlled buildings in NYC: sure they are cheaper than other buildings, but there are roaches and mice, and the heat breaks down every time it snows (I lived in one of these apartments when I was in college).

If I have to turn over my money to someone else, I'd rather turn them over to my fans or players or city residents than to Wang.


I really only see the luxury tax as a workable model, but that would mean scrapping the hard cap. If the Rangers are willing to spend $15 million to add Parise ($7.5 salary + $7.5 tax), they should be allowed to do so. The tax will then be split evenly among all the teams to avoid giving an incentive to teams that can't run their finances properly.

I must say, no-fail economic operations = socialism. This is why our government fails so badly - a government agency can't go bankruptcy, so therefore, all of them function at a net loss. Private companies run free parks, lotteries, etc and make money, while the government is always losing money because nobody is afraid to lose his job because of inefficiency. This is what professional sports is coming: no matter how badly you run your business, you can never go bankrupt.

Telling a business that it can never lose money is like telling an employee that he will never get fired even if he fails miserably and doesn't even try.

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12-01-2012, 10:46 PM
  #54
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You spent an awful lot of time on nothing there. These owners are in the business of running hockey teams. They're not going to run them into the ground to avoid revenue sharing. They would sell first. These are not fixed situations like the ecology ones that are the basis for the economic theory you're so fond of.

And that other thing you just mentioned about selling other things in the stadium? Yeah, that stuff is outlined as being part of HRR. The kind of thing you're talking about is exactly why you need a union as part of this equation.

I agree that this shouldn't be a no-fail economics situation. But the same argument applies towards there not being a salary cap in the first place. It isn't the player's responsibility to ensure that all teams run in the black. That's the owner's responsibility.

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12-01-2012, 11:06 PM
  #55
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Or ideally the end game is to share revenue to build a diverse league which allows you to land a big national TV deal. You're not getting the NBC sports deal (let alone something bigger) with 10 teams.

We can argue until about whether HOCKEY can actually do that until we're blue in the face. But that is the end goal and why the owners are doing everything they can to prop up expansion teams.

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12-01-2012, 11:31 PM
  #56
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Let's keep this thread on-topic please and try not to drift into other areas of politics. Thanks.

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12-01-2012, 11:33 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze View Post
Or ideally the end game is to share revenue to build a diverse league which allows you to land a big national TV deal. You're not getting the NBC sports deal (let alone something bigger) with 10 teams.

We can argue until about whether HOCKEY can actually do that until we're blue in the face. But that is the end goal and why the owners are doing everything they can to prop up expansion teams.

Soccer tried that strategy. The MLS is one big co-op with all the revenue shared. This did not work out well for the MLS because, with rare exceptions, the teams can't bid for top-end players. Granted Europe has a culture of soccer, and the US doesn't, but at the same rate, the US also doesn't have a culture of hockey either. If we didn't have the best players from all over the world, hockey would become a very, very minor sport, probably less than soccer (at least most American kids play soccer... very few play hockey).


We are already seeing some Russians return to the KHL for parts (or all) of their careers. We are told that they are moody or bad people. Bulls--t. They just have the option of making more money without having to go to a foreign land 5,000 miles away.

If the Central Europeans create a joint league for the Swedes, the Finns, the Germans, the Austrians, the Swiss, the Czechs and the Slovaks, there's no reason why players won't move there. The quality of a 20-team Central European League would be excellent. If you take the best 50-75 players in Sweden, Czech Republic, etc. and create 2-3 teams out of them, these squads will be very good. Essentially, it would be the All-Star squads from these nations creating a league of their own.

If some NHLers migrate there, the two leagues could potentially become competitive. At that point, even if the NHL is a little better, it won't be able to tell players, "come play on our third line for $2M instead of playing in your home-country for $5M because we are so much better." Quite simply, the NHL won't be that much better to make up for the loss of money (and the fact that Europeans have to move 5,000 miles to a place with a different language and culture). I can even see some American-born players moving to Europe for the extra money.


This is why the NHL should stop with this crap where they are forcing salaries to go down, even as European salaries are skyrocketing. Just as with any company, if you want to keep the best talent, you can't just talk about how great your company is, you have to pay the people like they are the best. The goal for NHL owners should be to raise revenue. To make things more even, they can introduce the luxury tax. But to constantly bump down salaries in a sport that completely depends on having the world's best players (because there's no culture of hockey here unlike other major sports) will eventually blow up in these people's faces.


Last edited by Beacon: 12-01-2012 at 11:38 PM.
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Old
12-01-2012, 11:36 PM
  #58
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It's a good point about other leagues, Beacon. In fact, this is exactly the kind of mess the KHL is designed to take advantage of. The only thing is that you underestimate the mystique of the Stanley Cup. However, over time, that could fade in Europe as well.

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12-02-2012, 12:03 AM
  #59
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I'm tired of waiting.... Either settle on a deal or cancel the season already so I can move on.

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12-02-2012, 12:36 AM
  #60
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I'm tired of waiting.... Either settle on a deal or cancel the season already so I can move on.

I wasn't even hopeful about a deal before the last second. You are all driving yourself crazy hoping every day that today will be the day. It won't. They will either settle it on the last day or fail to settle on the last day, and it won't be one second earlier than that.

Just driving yourself insane.

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12-02-2012, 05:41 AM
  #61
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Brooksie added more to his article, this is just a snippet of it...
Quote:
* Absent a cogent bargaining approach beyond just saying “No,” the NHL continues to attempt to discredit NHLPA executive director Don Fehr.

Everyone by now is familiar with the league’s back-channel assertion Fehr doesn’t accurately relay information from the NHL to the rank-and-file; that he withholds information to suit his own anti-salary cap agenda.

The latest, though, Slap Shots has learned, is this rumor circulating through the Board that Fehr has a clause in his contract under which he would receive an $8 million payment should the PA vote to accept a CBA against his recommendation.

“Nonsense ... comical,” Fehr said once he stopped laughing when asked about it yesterday. “I’d say that I only wish I were that good a negotiator for myself, except that I don’t even want to joke about it.”

It all appears to be part of a strategy to paint Fehr as unethical in order to undermine his influence with the players.
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/range...YRGeiAMY3xF1QN

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12-02-2012, 06:05 AM
  #62
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The one sport which can't be losing entire seasons is the NHL. Its not as established as the MLB,NFL and NBA. Maybe that's part of the problem. Nobody really cares.

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12-02-2012, 10:13 AM
  #63
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The one sport which can't be losing entire seasons is the NHL. Its not as established as the MLB,NFL and NBA. Maybe that's part of the problem. Nobody really cares.
IMO you have perfectly summarized the true NHL problem.

You have a league, with poor overall revenues, not because there is fault but rather the broad public doesn't care. Hockey is, and will probably always be a cult sport in the US.


Last edited by ltrangerfan: 12-02-2012 at 10:18 AM.
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12-02-2012, 10:51 AM
  #64
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IMO you have perfectly summarized the true NHL problem.

You have a league, with poor overall revenues, not because there is fault but rather the broad public doesn't care. Hockey is, and will probably always be a cult sport in the US.
I think it has the excitement and energy to become bigger than at least the NBA, but with this lockout not for some time.

The biggest problem with attracting new fans is it takes time and concentration to get used to watching the puck on the screen. Growing up playing and watching the game I don't have a problem and many if not all don't have a problem, but I constantly hear from people that don't watch hockey that they can't follow the puck around the ice while watching it on a screen and that is why they don't watch it. It is much smaller than a football or basketball and moves much faster than both of those, so it is understandable. So it will take time, but I think it will become bigger than the nba some day, if they ever get back on the fridgen ice!!!

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12-02-2012, 12:16 PM
  #65
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The one sport which can't be losing entire seasons is the NHL. Its not as established as the MLB,NFL and NBA. Maybe that's part of the problem. Nobody really cares.
It is part of the problem. There isn't the same amount of media pressure on the NHL as there is in the other sports. If the NFL ever actually looked like it was on the verge of cancelling an entire season every media outlet in the United States would be completely off the wall with criticism and conjecture. I'm not even just talking sports media either. Politicians would get involved. Entertainers. The late night talk show hosts would do bits about it every single night.

The NHL can do this because nobody really notices. It's almost as if they're operating in a vacuum. The small cadre of die-hard fans like us notice and the insiders in the dedicated hockey media notice (90% of whom are operating out of Canada and will never be heard by any casual sports fan in the United States) but no one else does.

If the NFL pulled this act every time there was a new CBA ESPN would dedicate a new channel to NFL collective bargaining topics.

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12-02-2012, 12:41 PM
  #66
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If this continues. A lot of stars oversees will stay in Europe. Because they will get the money there and the NHL will no longer be considered the top hockey league in the world. Then it will be a lilt like soccer where you will have 2 or three leagues in the world competing to be the best.

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12-02-2012, 12:52 PM
  #67
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Hopefully Dolan is allowed in.

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NHL, NHLPA still talking about a potential players-owners meeting. Expectation from NHL is for a plan to be in place by the end of today.

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12-02-2012, 01:06 PM
  #68
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The NFL was tailor made for tv. Left/right action, commercial breaks, stop and start action. The NHL has potential with HD moving forward. The puck is only going to be easier to follow.

The glowing puck could have had more traction if it was a modest change instead of the manga style animation Fox employed. Hockey can reap the benefits of technology if they can simply not screw themselves over every 7 years.

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12-02-2012, 01:10 PM
  #69
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The NFL was tailor made for tv. Left/right action, commercial breaks, stop and start action. The NHL has potential with HD moving forward. The puck is only going to be easier to follow.

The glowing puck could have had more traction if it was a modest change instead of the manga style animation Fox employed. Hockey can reap the benefits of technology if they can simply not screw themselves over every 7 years.
I don't think the glowing puck is necessary now with HDTVs populating households.

Back then it was an interesting idea, but I don't think that is needed now.

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12-02-2012, 03:17 PM
  #70
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No Jacobs, please.

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Looks like the 3 day wait might be over. Sides still confirming the details of a possible "Players-Owners" only meeting. More to come.

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12-02-2012, 03:28 PM
  #71
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Thinking that they actually can usurp any of the top 3 sports in America is what got the NHL in trouble in the first place.

Theres countless reasons why the NHL will never surpass the NFL, MLB, and the NBA. But it starts with the inability to market players. The stars only play a third of the game, and they do that in several shifts.

The NHL is a niche sport, and it always will be. If the decision makers accepted that, we'd all be better off

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12-02-2012, 03:30 PM
  #72
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If this doesn't work, do we see a disclaimer of interest?

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#CBA Sounds like the players/owners-only meeting is likely but 2 sides still firming up details. Probable date/location is Tues in NY

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12-02-2012, 04:18 PM
  #73
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Here are your 6 owners:

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Katie Strang ‏@KatieStrangESPN
#CBA Can confirm: players/owners-only meeting will take place. Six owners are Jacobs, Edwards, Chipman, Burkle, Tannenbaum and Vinik
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Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie
NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly will also be part of the meeting. I believe players to attend the meeting are being selected now.

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12-02-2012, 04:20 PM
  #74
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Here are your 6 owners:
As long as Jacobs is there no progress will be made.

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12-02-2012, 04:23 PM
  #75
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Why do we need Chipman AND Tannenbaum?

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