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Are the Americans going to overtake hockey in our lifetime?

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Old
12-01-2012, 10:20 PM
  #76
sunnyvale420
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigcaulks View Post
Access to ice at the age of 3-4 in your back yard will always play a role in that development.

For instances, and please excuse the vagueness. Saskatchewan has 1/4 the population of BC and has produced more NHL players. Do you think it's because:

a) they are genetically superior,
b) that Sask has a far better developmental system or,
c) do you think access to ice at a young age plays a role?

Growing up in Van meant playing ball hockey 75& of the year after school or on weekends. If it we had ice anywhere and everywhere, we'd have played there.
Grew up playing road hockey 24/7 as well in a small BC town. Never played hockey competitivly but been a massive hockey fan for 20 years. Closest nhl arenas are 8 hour drive east or west. The guys whos dads built them outdoor rinks seemed to have the edge generally over those who didnt. But that goes back to those who have money can put their kids in hockey and can send them to summer hockey schools. If u have access to an outdoor surface for free them u can master the basics and strength of balance by an early age.

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12-01-2012, 11:01 PM
  #77
Brock Anton
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I don't think so. I think we're much more likely to overtake soccer than hockey. With the influx of Hispanics in the United States, soccer is becoming much more popular, especially at the youth levels (I believe it's the most played sport by kids 10-15). Add in the recent influx of German-Americans playing for the National Team, the talent pool in the U.S. is only going to get better.

With hockey having a lockout a decade, kids are probably not going to want the instability that goes with the NHL right now. Hockey is life in places such as Canada, Sweden, Finland and so on. They'll continue to churn out star after star, I'm on the opposite side of the equation when I think hockey in the United States is declining (for the lack of a better word) and will continue to. When you add in the new grown fear of concussions, parents are not going to want their sons playing hockey/football when they can go tell them to play basketball, soccer and baseball, which people consider "safer" sports.

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12-01-2012, 11:40 PM
  #78
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I just can't see it. Hockey gets so little attention in the States. Also there is not really an American superstar player. The best American is what? Maybe the 20th or 30th best player in the league? I'm not talking about goalies either. Without an American superstar it's tough to sell the game to the non-casual fan/younger kid who is a potential hockey player.

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12-02-2012, 01:29 AM
  #79
elnewby
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I'd say it is absolutely possible. The last olympics showed that the two are not that far a part at all. Both countries have put out some awesome prospects the last few years. If the US was ever to win gold at the olympics it would spark a major point in hockey popularity. It will never be as popular here as in Canada, but the level of play will be very very close.

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12-02-2012, 01:36 AM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elnewby View Post
I'd say it is absolutely possible. The last olympics showed that the two are not that far a part at all. Both countries have put out some awesome prospects the last few years. If the US was ever to win gold at the olympics it would spark a major point in hockey popularity. It will never be as popular here as in Canada, but the level of play will be very very close.
Miracle on ice! They've already won a gold at hockey, and they came pretty darn close in 2002 again. I think they'll always be in the upper echelon of hockey, just like Canada will. They may overtake, and be overtaken, and repeat.

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Old
12-02-2012, 01:40 AM
  #81
ZZamboni
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lifeisruff View Post
When I think of Canada I think of a hockey rink in every town. Even in the suburbs of Buffalo, I can only think of 4 public rinks, and two of them are outdoor.

Here to help. It seems you don't know (not an attack) the rinks in or very close to Buffalo ...

Northtowns Center - 4 rinks
Leisure Rinks - 2 rinks
Holiday Rinks - 2 rinks
Cazenovia - 1 rink
West Seneca ice rinks - 2 rinks
Buffalo State College - 1 rink
Nichols - 1 rink
Hockey Outlet - 2 rinks
East Aurora - 1 rink (made from winter classic rink parts)

And I am very sure I forgot a few hockey rinks too.

And Pegula is building a 2 rink facility at the foot of First Niagara Center next year I believe.

With that being said, I can't see the US spitting out more professional hockey talent than Canada for at least 30+ years. The US may slowly grab a bigger and bigger chunk of the percentage pie, but it has a looooooong way to go, to get to 51% if it even ever gets there.

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12-02-2012, 03:44 AM
  #82
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Just looking at raw numbers of players you would think Americans would make up a larger share of the NHL than what they do now but I guess as tarheelhockey said earlier there is more to it than just raw numbers. I believe The amount of Americans (in both total numbers and as a %) in the NHL reached an all time high last season and has been trending upwards for a while now. One thing to note though is that much, perhaps even all of those increases seem to be in depth roles.

Taken from another thread...

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolForumNamePending View Post
...As both raw numbers and as a percentage more Americans are playing in the NHL than ever before but the numbers that are in say the top 25, 50, 100 & 200 of the scoring race is pretty much stagnate when compared to a decade ago. Obviously scoring/points isn't everything but I think we can all agree that it is pretty importantant when talking about high end/skilled players.

2011-2012 Season

Total Skaters: 894
American Skaters: 219
% of American Skaters: 24.5

Americans in the Top...
25: 3
50: 8
100: 18
200: 34

2001-2002 Season

Total Skaters: 874
American Skaters: 139
% of American Skaters: 15.9

Americans in the Top...
25: 3
50: 10
100: 16
200: 30

So the increase in the quantity of American talent playing in the NHL has been pretty impressive but it really doesn't seem to have resulted in an increase of high end quality.

I guess it would be fair to point out that I'm comparing this current group of American players to probably at this point the most impressive generation of American players who had their prime from the early 90's up to the lockout.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedWings19405 View Post
But then again his name or the OP's point on Pominville that points to another thing, even if the US produces this stud. What are the chances Canadian fans don't claim his grandpas Canadian or he isn't really American? Not great and tiring. Canada has never produced a great basketball player because Steve Nash is South African. See isn't that annoying.
I get your point but Pominville is probably a bad example to use. By the looks of it he is a Canadian born, raised and trained hockey player. A better anology to saying Steve Nash is a South African basketball player would be someone saying Paul Stasny is a Canadian hockey player.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Anton View Post
I don't think so. I think we're much more likely to overtake soccer than hockey. With the influx of Hispanics in the United States, soccer is becoming much more popular, especially at the youth levels (I believe it's the most played sport by kids 10-15). Add in the recent influx of German-Americans playing for the National Team, the talent pool in the U.S. is only going to get better.
Given its international depth no country will ever 'overtake' soccer, not even one as wealthy and large as the US. Regardless of how popular soccer may become in the US the chances of the US 'overtaking' hockey are far greater simply due to hockey's relative lack of depth and competition when compared to soccer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Anton View Post
With hockey having a lockout a decade, kids are probably not going to want the instability that goes with the NHL right now. Hockey is life in places such as Canada, Sweden, Finland and so on. They'll continue to churn out star after star, I'm on the opposite side of the equation when I think hockey in the United States is declining (for the lack of a better word) and will continue to. When you add in the new grown fear of concussions, parents are not going to want their sons playing hockey/football when they can go tell them to play basketball, soccer and baseball, which people consider "safer" sports.
How is hockey declining in the US? Just about any meaningful statistic points to it growing.

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Old
12-02-2012, 04:00 AM
  #83
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Just went through the first page and no one mentioned a very important fact IMO, that many hockey players (Canadian/European) end up living in the states and raising their families there. So these are American born and trained kids but they could just as easily have been Canadian/European and come from high end athletic genes.

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12-02-2012, 08:17 AM
  #84
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Won't happen. Not enough interest in hockey down there for this to happen.

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12-02-2012, 08:59 AM
  #85
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It's possible but unlikely IMO. I think Hockey will definitely grow in the States, no doubt about that, but I believe Canada will always be #1.

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12-02-2012, 09:14 AM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elnewby View Post
I'd say it is absolutely possible. The last olympics showed that the two are not that far a part at all. Both countries have put out some awesome prospects the last few years. If the US was ever to win gold at the olympics it would spark a major point in hockey popularity. It will never be as popular here as in Canada, but the level of play will be very very close.
true, the difference is that Canada had about 50 "elite" players they could have put on their roster. that being said i do think USA will take the next gold, assuming NHL players are playing

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12-02-2012, 09:22 AM
  #87
Mr Writer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jack mullet View Post
true, the difference is that Canada had about 50 "elite" players they could have put on their roster. that being said i do think USA will take the next gold, assuming NHL players are playing
I think it's about time for a Canada-USA Summit Series. 8 games 2 games in Philly and 2 at MSG in NYC and 2 in Toronto and 2 in Montreal. It would be epic.

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12-02-2012, 09:47 AM
  #88
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no..

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12-02-2012, 10:32 AM
  #89
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I doubt it, just too many kids play Canadian hockey...bound to keep finding the next slew of stars every 5-10 yrs.

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12-02-2012, 10:48 AM
  #90
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Probably not within the next 20-40 years but I think eventually it will happen just on account of the population difference. We're seeing kids playing hockey at a high level coming from California, Texas, etc etc. That's also not counting what's already been mentioned, all the kids of Canadian NHL players growing up in the USA. I don't think Canada will ever be a marginal country on the world stage, but I think you're going to see it become more equal between Canada and the USA. I don't know if it'll ever happen that the USA will have 50% or more of NHL players, but I think we might see a 40-40-20ish split between Canadians, Americans, and Europeans.

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12-02-2012, 11:08 AM
  #91
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At some point it will happen, however not in *our* lifetime.

In 100 years, maybe. But we would have to assume that Canada doesn't grow as much as the US, because as I see right now, our perception is based on todays numbers and not in the future growth. If we are talking about hockey in general we have to talk about (1) population of hockey fans (2) hockey players produced [in general] (3) hockey players in the nhl (4) popularity of the sport (5) achievements.

Aside from not assuming Canada won't grow as much as the US, like some are suggesting, you would also have to assume European hockey giants like Russia, won't grow in terms of talent. But it's out of topic.

My answers:

So (1) That could happen.
(2) That could happen, although it would take 100 years, given the fact that popularity is still a factor in the US, for kids who decide. Although as we see in the olympics, in almost every sport the US dominates, well aside from China.
(3) Here is an interesting article about NHL nationality breakdown:
http://www.quanthockey.com/TS/TS_Pla...ionalities.php
"After the 1970s, the Canadian dominance gradually diminished as players from the Unites States, Sweden and Finland began to find their way to the NHL in greater numbers. By the end of the 1980s, the share of Canadians in the league had dropped to approximately 75% and hovers now around the 50% mark."
(4) Will it knock baseball, football, basketball out of the big 3? No. It will vary by state, that's for sure.
(5) Going back to number (3), the US growth might have to do with a lot of positive outcomes from the NHL or international competitions.

It's safe to say at some point it will overtake Canada, but will it match Canada's domination in hockey, no. Give it 100 years of progress, then it might happen. But not in our lifetime.

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12-02-2012, 11:39 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Ouroboros View Post
Is the corollary here: Will Canadians still care about hockey when/if they are no longer the dominant force in the sport?
Nope.

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12-02-2012, 11:40 AM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by End on a Hinote View Post
There are many countries that are passionate about sports like soccer that are not, nor ever have been, the #1 nation at it. I expect Canada to be the same with hockey.
Most of those countries are not first world immigration nations.

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12-02-2012, 11:42 AM
  #94
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i think its possible. for anyone that played hockey you know its the funnest sport

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12-02-2012, 11:45 AM
  #95
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Probably not. Geographically there's too much of the country that you can rule out completely from consistently producing hockey players. It's a good sport for white kids who will never make the nfl or nba but its just not that popular.

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12-02-2012, 12:05 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
Probably not. Geographically there's too much of the country that you can rule out completely from consistently producing hockey players. It's a good sport for white kids who will never make the nfl or nba but its just not that popular.
Huh... You make it sound like when a 7 or 8 year old American kid decides he wants to give hockey a try his primary motiviation is because he has determined that he will never make the NFL or NBA.

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12-02-2012, 12:09 PM
  #97
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The thing is, even if hockey development has improved in non-traditional markets, in most of the US, the best athletes are still going to play other sports. Outside of rich, white suburbs, you aren't going to see school coaches noticing kids with raw explosiveness and recruiting them into hockey the way they do for football, basketball and baseball. If anything, soccer is growing even more quickly in the US.

Canada might have a small population, but the best athletes are still funnelled into hockey at the expense of everything else; in the US, it's the opposite.

There will be more and more Americans in the NHL, at the expense of Europeans. In fact, with the growth of the KHL, these lockouts, and the continued presence of anti-European xenophobia among NHL commentators and fans, I'm worried in a few decades there will be no Europeans left in the NHL.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolForumNamePending View Post
Huh... You make it sound like when a 7 or 8 year old American kid decides he wants to give hockey a try his primary motiviation is because he has determined that he will never make the NFL or NBA.
The thing is, that's true to an extent. I come from an affluent suburb in NY, the two most popular sports for scholarship purposes were lacrosse and hockey. There was a few kids who thought they had NHL potential, anyone who thought they had NFL or NBA potential would have been laughed away. Meanwhile, a few miles away, a poorer, more racially mixed town, had no hockey programs and actually produced a few pro football and basketball players.

Obviously it isn't that simple but in most of the country, hockey carries the same stigma lacrosse does, as the sport for rich white kids who can't jump but can spend a ton of money on gear.


Last edited by Et le But: 12-02-2012 at 12:15 PM.
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12-02-2012, 12:13 PM
  #98
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I think it's about time for a Canada-USA Summit Series. 8 games 2 games in Philly and 2 at MSG in NYC and 2 in Toronto and 2 in Montreal. It would be epic.
This would be fantastic...

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Old
12-02-2012, 12:14 PM
  #99
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USA has improved alot, I dont see anyway that they pass Canada any time soon.

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12-02-2012, 12:35 PM
  #100
No Fun Shogun
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My honest gut feeling is that we'll reach a point in the next couple decades where Americans, Europeans, and Canadians will each comprise about a third of the league. Doubt that one will become an outright majority for a very long time once Canadians become a plurality.

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