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NHL markets (MOD: define small, medium, large)

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Old
12-03-2012, 01:34 AM
  #26
SJeasy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FoppaForsberg View Post
When I say markets I mean population, income, "players that live to play for once they hit UFA "type of deal, etc etc.
You can look at the TV households in metro areas for American markets. Beyond LA, NY and Chicago, you have LA, Dallas, Philly and SJ. The last 4 were all on the cusp of crossing the benchmark for rev sharing.

Personally, I still consider SJ mid-market because of the very large dimensions of its geographical area. Same is true for Philly. Some of the metro areas extend near to 100 miles at their widest dimension.

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12-03-2012, 08:53 AM
  #27
tony d
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All 7 Canadian hockey cities are big market hockey cities. In the States Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Los Angeles are the big hockey markets.

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Old
12-03-2012, 09:34 AM
  #28
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fwiw, buffalo is "huuuuuuuuuge"

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12-03-2012, 09:53 AM
  #29
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Large (5M+)
New York Rangers
New York Islanders
New Jersey Devils
Los Angeles Kings
Chicago Blackhawks
Dallas Stars
Philadelphia Flyers
Washington Capitals
Florida Panthers
Toronto Maple Leafs

Medium (2M-5M)
Boston Bruins
Detroit Red Wings
Phoenix Coyotes
Montreal Canadiens
Minnesota Wild
Anaheim Ducks
Tampa Bay Lightning
St. Louis Blues
Colorado Avalanche
Pittsburgh Penguins
Vancouver Canucks

Small (<2M)
San Jose Sharks
Columbus Blue Jackets
Nashville Predators
Ottawa Senators
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers
Carolina Hurricanes
Buffalo Sabres
Winnipeg Jets

I also took the liberty of ordering the teams by market size within their respective categories, so you get a good feel of who sits where in the league, and what kinds of challenges (and potential growth) faces each market.

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12-03-2012, 10:29 AM
  #30
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So the argument appears to be if a "hockey market" of a city is the same thing as a "population" of a city.

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Old
12-03-2012, 10:45 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JETZinmypants View Post
So the argument appears to be if a "hockey market" of a city is the same thing as a "population" of a city.
Makes perfect sense to me.

Clearly, the NHL needs to move the Oilers to Mexico City.

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Old
12-03-2012, 12:13 PM
  #32
jigglysquishy
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NHL cities listed by metro size

Rank City Team Population
1 New York City Rangers 22,100,000
2 New York City Devils 22,100,000
3 New York City Islanders 22,100,000
4 Los Angeles Kings 17,900,000
5 Los Angeles Ducks 17,900,000
6 Chicago Blackhawks 9,700,000
7 Washington Capitals 8,600,000
8 Boston Bruins 7,600,000
9 San Jose Sharks 7,500,000
10 Dallas Stars 6,700,000
11 Philadelphia Flyers 6,500,000
12 Toronto Maple Leafs 5,600,000
13 Miami Panthers 5,600,000
14 Detroit Red Wings 5,200,000
15 Phoenix Coyotes 5,200,000
16 Montreal Canadiens 3,800,000
17 Minneapolis Wild 3,600,000
18 Denver Avalanche 3,100,000
19 St. Louis Blues 2,900,000
20 Tampa Bay Lightning 2,800,000
21 Pittsburgh Penguins 2,500,000
22 Vancouver Canucks 2,300,000
23 Columbus Blue Jackets 2,100,000
24 Raleigh Hurricanes 1,700,000
25 Nashville Predators 1,700,000
26 Ottawa Senators 1,200,000
27 Buffalo Sabres 1,200,000
28 Calgary Flames 1,200,000
29 Edmonton Oilers 1,200,000
30 Winnipeg Jets 700,000

Now with market splits (accounting for the multiple teams in NYC/LA)
Rank City Team Population
1 Chicago Blackhawks 9,700,000
2 Los Angeles Kings 9,000,000
3 Los Angeles Ducks 9,000,000
4 Washington Capitals 8,600,000
5 Boston Bruins 7,600,000
6 San Jose Sharks 7,500,000
7 New York City Rangers 7,400,000
8 New York City Devils 7,400,000
9 New York City Islanders 7,400,000
10 Dallas Stars 6,700,000
11 Philadelphia Flyers 6,500,000
12 Toronto Maple Leafs 5,600,000
13 Miami Panthers 5,600,000
14 Detroit Red Wings 5,200,000
15 Phoenix Coyotes 5,200,000
16 Montreal Canadiens 3,800,000
17 Minneapolis Wild 3,600,000
18 Denver Avalanche 3,100,000
19 St. Louis Blues 2,900,000
20 Tampa Bay Lightning 2,800,000
21 Pittsburgh Penguins 2,500,000
22 Vancouver Canucks 2,300,000
23 Columbus Blue Jackets 2,100,000
24 Raleigh Hurricanes 1,700,000
25 Nashville Predators 1,700,000
26 Ottawa Senators 1,200,000
27 Buffalo Sabres 1,200,000
28 Calgary Flames 1,200,000
29 Edmonton Oilers 1,200,000
30 Winnipeg Jets 700,000

Now by operating income
http://www.forbes.com/nhl-valuations...n:desc_search:

Some massive discrepancies, particularly among Canadian teams. The biggest changes are Winnipeg going from 30th to 10th, Islanders dropping from first to 29th, the Ducks dropping from 3rd to 21st, and Ott/Edm/Cal each jumping from 26th,28th,29th to top eleven teams.

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Old
12-03-2012, 01:38 PM
  #33
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But using the market splits, that's assuming the Rangers, Islanders, and Devils all own an equal share of the market, which they obviously don't.

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12-03-2012, 01:46 PM
  #34
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There aren't 10 better hockey markets in all of North America than Edmonton.

Let this sink in for a second ... the Oilers average ticket price is higher than the NBA champion Miami Heat with LeBron James, DWade, etc. in South Beach Miami with all the big wigs with yachts and several times the population. And the Oilers are a last place team, playing in a shoddy arena, selling out every night with those ticket prices. It's higher than the Yankees too I believe, but there are obvious seating size differences between the sports.

The only teams in the NHL/NBA that charge a higher ticket price than the Oilers are the Leafs, Habs, Jets, LA Lakers, NY Knicks. When they get a shiny new arena (eventually even with some headaches), they're going to charge even more, especially when/if the team is actually good.

There is tremendous growth in the Oilers fanbase the last 15 years, but especially the last 6-7, this is something most people do not understand, but it's fairly obvious.

Go to an Oilers game today and half the people in the crowd never saw Wayne Gretzky play as an Oiler themselves. Generational fanbases have happened. The people who grew up watching the 80s Oilers had kids, and those kids become another wave of fans. 2006 happened and another wave of fans was added.

In Edmonton hockey is religion, not a sport.

And they are obviously benefitting from that. Like the Leafs and Habs, the Oilers are now starting to benefit from generational fanbases. So are the Flames (lots of Flames fans only now Iginla and Kipper, never saw that 89 Cup team at all).

People forget when the Oilers/Flames had their troubles in the mid-90s they were still very, very young franchises with basically one generation of fans.

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Old
12-03-2012, 02:39 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
NHL cities listed by metro size
Canadian and American cities do not use the same metrics to calculate metropolitan areas.

The Combined Statistical Area ("CSA") does not have an equivalent in Canada. That is mostly because most Canadian cities are not large enough to have developed/grown into neighbouring metros and satellite cities.

Toronto's census metropolitan area, for example, has 5.6 million people over a mere 2,700 sq mi. It does not include Barrie, Oshawa, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, or Niagara-St. Catharines, all cities within approximately an hours drive (and in the case of Oshawa, a mere 15 minutes from border to border) and all served by Toronto's commuter train network. Counting these areas, Toronto's "metropolitan" area population (and certainly the Maple Leafs market) would be over 8 million.

I suspect Montreal is similar, though obviously not to the same extent.


Last edited by htpwn: 12-03-2012 at 02:58 PM.
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Old
12-03-2012, 03:10 PM
  #36
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Metro population doesn't really tell you anything about hockey popularity in an area though.

What good is it to have 5 millon metro pop, when hockey is behind the NFL, NBA, MLB, NCAA basketball, NCAA football, mens tennis, womens tennis, NASCAR, etc. etc. in terms of popularity in a region?

I'd bet money there are more future hockey fans being born every day and moving into a region like Alberta (Edmonton has had 11% growth in its population in the last 7 years or so, Calgary even higher), where hockey is the 1/2/3/4 sport.

You look at Edmonton/Calgary which have at least 200,000 population (metro area) growth since the mid-90s, how much you want to bet at least 50,000 for each Calgary/Edmonton are hockey fans or have become hockey fans?

That's enough just in new fans to sell out a Saddledome or Rexall more than twice over on top of the pre-existing fan base.

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Old
12-03-2012, 03:25 PM
  #37
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Agreed.

While Winnipeg has a population base of only ~750,000, the actual hockey market is larger than Florida, TB, PHX, etc.

Season tickets (~13,000) are sold out for the next 3-5 years (on contract) with a 8000 person wait-list (capped).

Everyone around the city wears Jets gear, the Jets special edition licence plates are soldout (10,000+), and there was near rioting vs SHAW TV last year when the TSN Jets channel wasn't broadcasting the first period of the Penguins home game.

That's a "big" hockey market to me.



Quote:
Originally Posted by saskriders View Post
I would say Winnipeg and Edmonton are big markets.


They make money regardless of population

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Old
12-03-2012, 04:08 PM
  #38
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The only true way of finding marketvalue....... is the arena sold out (for the majority of seats) year after year


now if you eliminate the current seat holders /companies that hold seats can you sell it out again ... and how many times can you successfully sell it out....esp if your team is not playing well


plus you can have hardcore hockey fans who have other sports over hockey..ie they are hardcore fans but prefer 1 or more leagues/sport over hockey


and how large an area will primairly watch hockey on a regular basis.

thats where cdn markets jump dramiitically........(and orginal six markets)

for instance Van has a huge base of BC to watch(even if that isnt their team)...same for Alberta...even though that may not be their team.....and the Maritimes will watch alot of hockey as well as Sask.....................and for alot of those people they may never attend a game but will watch/buy on areg basis.

So for the most part Cdn teams are big market team.....maybe Win doesnt have as big a base as some CDN teams so you can slide them back a bit(maybe and not for long)


also you need to take into account how often these teams spend to the cap over a extended time ...showing their market strength

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Old
12-03-2012, 04:13 PM
  #39
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In a very simplistic way to know if your in a hockey market is if a player walks down a street and people know who he is.Or a player comes into a store,restarant and people start asking for his autograph

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12-03-2012, 04:13 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by htpwn View Post
Canadian and American cities do not use the same metrics to calculate metropolitan areas.
I was about to say the same thing. But rather than point out how big Toronto would be, I was going to point out how small some of the US populations would be. Fort Worth and Arlington wouldn't even contribute to the Dallas market using the Canadian CMA definition. Basically, if most people live and work in the same place, then they are their own CMA, which is why Hamilton and Oshawa aren't part the Toronto CMA, and why Burlington gets sucked into Hamilton and isn't part of Toronto.

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12-03-2012, 04:18 PM
  #41
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Yeah by and large, if metro population size really had much to do with NHL success, we wouldn't be in this lockout mess right now.

Throwing teams in Phoenix, Miami/Florida, etc. should've been successful just based on the sheer market size.

Market size doesn't mean much when the your intended market doesn't give a crap about your product.

If I'm a movie producer making a Twilight movie, I'd rather sell to an audience of 2 million teenage girls than try to sell that same movie to 15 million middle aged men, lol.

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12-03-2012, 04:26 PM
  #42
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I feel like it should be some function of Total Market Size (potential fans), Hockey Fan Population Size (hardcore fans, probably using season ticket holder base and/or tv ratings), Corporate Base size (sponsors, in-arena suites), and some other things like probably mean income or something, maybe other hockey participation at every level. Someone more gifted in math than myself could probably make an equation of this to determine Lg. Med. and Sm. markets in the NHL and potential markets around the continent.

Saying one market is a bigger hockey market because it has a higher revenue is too simplistic, too many variables. I mean, Dallas had higher revenues than several Canadian markets not long ago, and no offense to Dallas but it ain't a bigger hockey market than most of those cities.

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Old
12-03-2012, 08:03 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mzappa View Post
Agreed.

While Winnipeg has a population base of only ~750,000, the actual hockey market is larger than Florida, TB, PHX, etc.

Season tickets (~13,000) are sold out for the next 3-5 years (on contract) with a 8000 person wait-list (capped).

Everyone around the city wears Jets gear, the Jets special edition licence plates are soldout (10,000+), and there was near rioting vs SHAW TV last year when the TSN Jets channel wasn't broadcasting the first period of the Penguins home game.

That's a "big" hockey market to me.
Near rioting? That's more than a bit of an exaggeration.

Despite all these factors, Winnipeg was still only ~10th in league revenue. And that was with quite a sizable boost from it being the first year (merchandising, etc). Doesn't matter what Winnipeg does, they at best a mid-market team. Same goes with EDM, IMO. Right now Winnipeg is not a small market team but they could be depending on how things progress. They will always be a small to mid market team, at best, the potential is just not there for large growth like, well, almost every other city in the NHL.

The amazing thing is, unlike even an EDM, who has Leduc, Spruce Grove, Sherwood Park, St. Albert, Fort Saskatechewan all within a 15 minute drive from the city (not sure if they are included in the 1.2 list pop above), Winnipeg has none of that. We have Selkirk, East St. Paul, St. Malo. All three of which combined don't add up to any one of the surrounding communities from EDM. (And remember EDM is mid-market as well). Doesn't matter how you draw up the lines for population (for example, Toronto would be much higher if calculated like US populations), or population is what's in the city. That's it. Not to mention that traditionally, as the "gateway to the west" city, Winnipeg has housed tons of corporations, particularly western headquarters. That is now shifting to the Calgary more and more. Theres still lots here, but it just adds up to just no potential beyond where the Jets are at now.

It's nothing against the Jets, there's nothing wrong with being mid to small market team. Somebody has to be there. Winnipeg is a fine hockey market and will be around for foreseeable future. But to paint us as a "big" hockey market, or to suggest we could get there, is just plain wrong, IMO.

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12-03-2012, 08:38 PM
  #44
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No doubt I'm exaggerating, forgot the
But ask the people working customer service at SHAW that night!

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Near rioting? That's more than a bit of an exaggeration.

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12-04-2012, 09:27 AM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Near rioting? That's more than a bit of an exaggeration.

Despite all these factors, Winnipeg was still only ~10th in league revenue. And that was with quite a sizable boost from it being the first year (merchandising, etc). Doesn't matter what Winnipeg does, they at best a mid-market team. Same goes with EDM, IMO. Right now Winnipeg is not a small market team but they could be depending on how things progress. They will always be a small to mid market team, at best, the potential is just not there for large growth like, well, almost every other city in the NHL.

The amazing thing is, unlike even an EDM, who has Leduc, Spruce Grove, Sherwood Park, St. Albert, Fort Saskatechewan all within a 15 minute drive from the city (not sure if they are included in the 1.2 list pop above), Winnipeg has none of that. We have Selkirk, East St. Paul, St. Malo. All three of which combined don't add up to any one of the surrounding communities from EDM. (And remember EDM is mid-market as well). Doesn't matter how you draw up the lines for population (for example, Toronto would be much higher if calculated like US populations), or population is what's in the city. That's it. Not to mention that traditionally, as the "gateway to the west" city, Winnipeg has housed tons of corporations, particularly western headquarters. That is now shifting to the Calgary more and more. Theres still lots here, but it just adds up to just no potential beyond where the Jets are at now.

It's nothing against the Jets, there's nothing wrong with being mid to small market team. Somebody has to be there. Winnipeg is a fine hockey market and will be around for foreseeable future. But to paint us as a "big" hockey market, or to suggest we could get there, is just plain wrong, IMO.
Lets not forget one major thing. NHL Revenue is mainly from the gates (tickets) and Jets have one of the smallest arenas in the league. So, to get to top10 in revenue while being able to sell only 15003 tickets per game, that's something to consider. Add 2 or 3k more seats, at an average of 100$ a ticket, that's 300k per game, more than $12M more cash per year. That's something that you gotta consider, specificly in Winnipeg's case because with a 8000 wait-list, you know that you could have a 20k arena and is still would be a sellout and you still would have at least 3000 people on a wait-list for ST.

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Old
12-04-2012, 02:06 PM
  #46
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Lets not forget one major thing. NHL Revenue is mainly from the gates (tickets) and Jets have one of the smallest arenas in the league. So, to get to top10 in revenue while being able to sell only 15003 tickets per game, that's something to consider. Add 2 or 3k more seats, at an average of 100$ a ticket, that's 300k per game, more than $12M more cash per year. That's something that you gotta consider, specificly in Winnipeg's case because with a 8000 wait-list, you know that you could have a 20k arena and is still would be a sellout and you still would have at least 3000 people on a wait-list for ST.
That's all theoretical. Two factors come into play here. a) You are talking about adding 2/3k seats at above the already high average ticket price. That's not going to happen. The extra seat you would add would be at the top of the arena, the "nosebleed" tickets, the ones worth the least. MTS centre right now has no bad seats, no "nosebleeds" tickets (which is one of the reasons for WPG's high ticket price) due to the small arena. b)Having those extra tickets would drive the average ticket price down. Not only would those extra tickets drive the average down by being worth the least, the Jets would probably not be able to charge as much for the current seats (at least long-term) since the demand for seats would be greatly lessened.
The 15000 seat rink is a product of the market, not a limiting factor, IMO. It maximizes the revenue from the small pool available, at least long term.

Now remember, I am a Winnipeg fan. We have a great great dedicated fanbase. But it's merely a numbers game. We NEED to be truly dedicated market attracting a far far FAR greater percentage of the population into being dedicated fans just to get to mid market status we currently enjoy. Whether it's sustainable longterm to stay in the mid market range depends on how rabid the fanbase can stay and how much other small markets develop. Again though, it's not there's anything wrong with being a small market, it's just the reality of playing in a league where every other city in the league has at least pretty much double your population. Winnipeg will never be bleeding money or threatening to move, but there's always going to be big, mid and small markets, and despite the Winnipeg's dedication giving them a huge boost to overcome their population (based on population we should be last each and every year), it will likely mean Winnipeg is going to be a 15-25 revenue/market team in an average year long term.

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12-04-2012, 02:07 PM
  #47
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just for conversation

what would you consider Hamilton, a small/large market?

would you consider it small since the city itself is only 520000? or a large market due to its location in Southern Ontario?

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12-04-2012, 02:18 PM
  #48
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Quote:
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just for conversation

what would you consider Hamilton, a small/large market?

would you consider it small since the city itself is only 520000? or a large market due to its location in Southern Ontario?
Not sure if this is directed at me but...

I would consider Hamilton mid to large for sure, although it is hard to be sure until a team has moved there. Hamilton may only be 520k, but there are what, 8 million people within a hour drive? I don't have any census statistics, but google is telling me Toronto proper is less than an hour, nevermind Mississauga and the rest of the suburbs around there (Southern Ontario is not a particular strength of mine geography wise). Toronto is already there and well established which will hurt the market considerably, but I think that there's more than enough people there for large market, depending on how much the team is able to carve out a nice in Southern Ontario taking away some Leaf fans. So at LEAST a mid market team, with pretty easy potential to be a large market team, IMO.

My personal criteria is a mixture of population, population density, corporate support, and hockey interest to decide what would be a small/mid/large hockey market. For example, I still think Los Angeles is just a mid market, and Anaheim is just is a small market. Difference between both of them and say Winnipeg, is that they both have the potential to be large markets, Winnipeg doesn't.

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12-04-2012, 02:40 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigcaulks View Post
Making more than "half" the teams doesn't make Edmonton a big market.
It depends on how you define it.

Edmonton is a huge HOCKEY market.
Edmonton is a small GENERAL market.

In my opinion, I would define Edmonton as a large market in the NHL, due to it being a big hockey market. Hockey is basically a religion in Edmonton, and it has more hockey fans in it's market than many other markets, effectively making it a big hockey market.

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12-04-2012, 03:33 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mzappa View Post
Everyone around the city wears Jets gear, the Jets special edition licence plates are soldout (10,000+), and there was near rioting vs SHAW TV last year when the TSN Jets channel wasn't broadcasting the first period of the Penguins home game.
Wow this post is hilarious.

1) I don't wear Jets gear
2) Near rioting? What are you talking about.. that is one of the funniest things I have read on HF to date.

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