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12-03-2012, 12:04 PM
  #451
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San Diego.


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12-03-2012, 12:06 PM
  #452
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There is rumors swirling that the Red Sox are interested in Hamilton. What if they sign Hamilton, do you think maybe Crawford becomes available? If they pay some of that contract, maybe he would provide us with the speed/power we need in center? Bounce back year?
Crawford was traded to LA.

On August 25, the Red Sox sent struggling players Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto to the Los Angeles Dodgers for James Loney and four minor league prospects

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12-03-2012, 12:10 PM
  #453
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Lol totally forgot about that deal.

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12-03-2012, 02:44 PM
  #454
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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
Crawford: 20M AAV
Werth: 18M AAV
Bay: 16.5M AAV
Holliday: 17M AAV
Other than Holliday, those 3 players were all considered massive overpayments by teams bidding against themselves at the time of the deals. All 3 of those look worse now than ever (see also, Bryzgalov, Ilya).

I guess you could say that the Upton deal is more reasonable than those 3 and probably in line with the kind of deal you can expect for a UFA, but until you see what Bourn, Hamilton and Pagan sign for, its hard to know how good the deal was.

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12-03-2012, 03:01 PM
  #455
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Other than Holliday, those 3 players were all considered massive overpayments by teams bidding against themselves at the time of the deals. All 3 of those look worse now than ever (see also, Bryzgalov, Ilya).

I guess you could say that the Upton deal is more reasonable than those 3 and probably in line with the kind of deal you can expect for a UFA, but until you see what Bourn, Hamilton and Pagan sign for, its hard to know how good the deal was.
SABR people all say the Upton deal was a fair one FWIW.

Angel Pagan likely to resign in SF. The options are slowly dwindling.

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12-03-2012, 03:19 PM
  #456
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Other than Holliday, those 3 players were all considered massive overpayments by teams bidding against themselves at the time of the deals. All 3 of those look worse now than ever (see also, Bryzgalov, Ilya).

I guess you could say that the Upton deal is more reasonable than those 3 and probably in line with the kind of deal you can expect for a UFA, but until you see what Bourn, Hamilton and Pagan sign for, its hard to know how good the deal was.
Reported Pagan signed for 4/40.

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12-03-2012, 03:37 PM
  #457
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Rubens gotta have something up his sleeve. He wouldn't allow himself to get outbid by two other National contenders twice.

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12-03-2012, 03:38 PM
  #458
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Rubens gotta have something up his sleeve. He wouldn't allow himself to get outbid by two other National contenders twice.
Three if you include Washington getting Span.

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12-03-2012, 04:58 PM
  #459
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Sign me up for the 'trade for Dexter Fowler' train. Arguably (not to me, though, but I'll concede that others may disagree) a better player than Upton whom is younger and considerably cheaper? I'd trade Biddle for him, honestly - especially since we get to keep the high first rounder that we would've had to use to sign Upton.

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12-03-2012, 05:17 PM
  #460
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A guy i work with tells me everyday that we're going to sign Hamilton haha.

Now that 3 of the possible options are no longer available, its becoming an increasing possibility.

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12-03-2012, 05:43 PM
  #461
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Sign me up for the 'trade for Dexter Fowler' train. Arguably (not to me, though, but I'll concede that others may disagree) a better player than Upton whom is younger and considerably cheaper? I'd trade Biddle for him, honestly - especially since we get to keep the high first rounder that we would've had to use to sign Upton.
I jumped off. His numbers look great on paper and then you look deeper. He is a product of Coors field. His home/road splits are drastically different. His "power" was a result of Coors. He doesn't steal bases and he's terrible defensively in center. He does walk a lot which is good, but you're going to pay a lot for a player that's not as good as he seems.

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12-03-2012, 07:47 PM
  #462
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According to TR Sullivan of MLB.com, the Phillies have "some interest" in Michael Young. The Phils would use Young at third base.

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12-03-2012, 07:49 PM
  #463
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According to TR Sullivan of MLB.com, the Phillies have "some interest" in Michael Young. The Phils would use Young at third base.
Yeah, read that he'd need to waive an NTC and the Rangers would need to eat a portion of the 16M that he's owned this season. Sounds like a lot, but he'd likely be a good fit and come reasonably priced. Would buy us the year or 2 we need for Asche to prove he's capable.

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12-04-2012, 08:36 AM
  #464
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Yeah, read that he'd need to waive an NTC and the Rangers would need to eat a portion of the 16M that he's owned this season. Sounds like a lot, but he'd likely be a good fit and come reasonably priced. Would buy us the year or 2 we need for Asche to prove he's capable.
Only signed for next season. Not a bad option though. Don't think he would cost a lot in a trade. Not sure TX would eat much, if any, of his salary though.

Not trading Biddle for Fowler either. Biddle right now is looking like a high end #3 starter, maybe a low-end #2 type guy. Still a couple years away, but I'm not trading him for a mediocre CFer. I'd rather re-sign Victorino.

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12-04-2012, 10:49 AM
  #465
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I still think Bourjos is the best realistic option left for CF.

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12-04-2012, 11:12 AM
  #466
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I jumped off. His numbers look great on paper and then you look deeper. He is a product of Coors field. His home/road splits are drastically different. His "power" was a result of Coors. He doesn't steal bases and he's terrible defensively in center. He does walk a lot which is good, but you're going to pay a lot for a player that's not as good as he seems.
Coors bloats his 3B numbers (which add to his slugging - though CBP would add to his HR totals so it may be a wash), but I'm not sure I'm willing to concede that his OBP would suddenly drastically drop from .363 and .389 ('11 and '12 numbers). He is also only going to be 27 going into next year - he is just now entering his prime... so '12 (a .863 OPS) may not have been an abberation, it may have been progress.

Also, playing CF in CBP is ALOT different than playing CF in Coors... though I'm also considering the fact that we have some CF prospects that may be ready sooner or later and he'd still be a pretty good hitter in RF - especially compared to the other options whose bats couldn't prop their WAR up in the corner.

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According to TR Sullivan of MLB.com, the Phillies have "some interest" in Michael Young. The Phils would use Young at third base.
Oh, another bloated contract for a past their prime player? Michael Young is going to have a negative WAR next season (one of, if not the, worst 3B in the league defensively) for 16M and we are excited to trade solid prospects for him?

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12-04-2012, 12:11 PM
  #467
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Coors bloats his 3B numbers (which add to his slugging - though CBP would add to his HR totals so it may be a wash), but I'm not sure I'm willing to concede that his OBP would suddenly drastically drop from .363 and .389 ('11 and '12 numbers). He is also only going to be 27 going into next year - he is just now entering his prime... so '12 (a .863 OPS) may not have been an abberation, it may have been progress.

Also, playing CF in CBP is ALOT different than playing CF in Coors... though I'm also considering the fact that we have some CF prospects that may be ready sooner or later and he'd still be a pretty good hitter in RF - especially compared to the other options whose bats couldn't prop their WAR up in the corner.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits....=2012#advanced

His numbers on the road are below average in almost every category. His walk rate at Coors is 14% and 10% on the road. That's a huge difference, not to mention a crazy change in approach. Even for his career he has a 13% walk rate at Coors and 10% everywhere else. 10% is good don't get me wrong, but you'd be paying for the 13%, when in reality he's not really delivering on that away from Coors.

As far as the fielding. UZR isn't great in a small sample sizes but over a large sample of games its pretty reliable. He has an average UZR of -12.9 a season. That's among the worst among CFs. That also takes into account ballpark factors. Moving him to RF, he loses most of his value. He'd be comparable to Dom Brown, and Brown is more likely to have a breakout than Fowler.

Here's a good article on Fowler. It's based around fantasy, but it goes into his advanced stats.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...ks-out-barely/

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12-04-2012, 12:51 PM
  #468
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Oh, another bloated contract for a past their prime player? Michael Young is going to have a negative WAR next season (one of, if not the, worst 3B in the league defensively) for 16M and we are excited to trade solid prospects for him?
Don't know what the Rangers asking price for Young would be, but I doubt it would be high. Young only has 1 year left so it's not a long-term committment. As long as Texas eats a portion of the salary, I'd be ok with getting Young.

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12-04-2012, 01:03 PM
  #469
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Don't know what the Rangers asking price for Young would be, but I doubt it would be high. Young only has 1 year left so it's not a long-term committment. As long as Texas eats a portion of the salary, I'd be ok with getting Young.
The more salary they eat, the higher the price (in prospects).

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12-04-2012, 01:53 PM
  #470
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Don't know what the Rangers asking price for Young would be, but I doubt it would be high. Young only has 1 year left so it's not a long-term committment. As long as Texas eats a portion of the salary, I'd be ok with getting Young.
Micahel Young had a -2.4 WAR last season (-1 oWAR and -2.2 dWAR).

Kevin Frandsen had a 1.5 WAR last season (1.3 oWAR and .3 dWAR).

I fully expect Frandsen to revert to mean with a .700ish OPS (put up .71 OPS in SF in his longest ML stint of 296 PAs), but, even if Young somehow defies time (or takes some PEDs) and rebounds this year I'd still put even odds on him having a lower WAR than Frandsen as long as the latters' dWAR stays slightly above neutral.

Again, we are excited to trade prospects for Michael Young because... he is a name we recognize from when he used to be good (offensively, at least)? If so, he'll fit right in with the rest of our lineup, unfortunately.


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12-04-2012, 02:01 PM
  #471
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His numbers on the road are below average in almost every category. His walk rate at Coors is 14% and 10% on the road. That's a huge difference, not to mention a crazy change in approach. Even for his career he has a 13% walk rate at Coors and 10% everywhere else. 10% is good don't get me wrong, but you'd be paying for the 13%, when in reality he's not really delivering on that away from Coors.
I'm sorry, but how does the stadium affect walk rate? Do the Rockies employ people to shine spotlights in opposing pitcher's eyes? Or do they pay off the umps every game? Or are you suggesting they steal signs? (Oh, the irony!)

I'll concede that his 2Bs and 3Bs are bloated due to Coors (though I'll still argue that CBP upping his HR output likely would offset much of this in terms of SLG), but I just can't get behind any other conjecture. Btw, some players just play better at home than the road - and, like I said, he just had a career year at 26 (which would have been our 2nd highest OPS on the team behind Ruiz last season) and is turning 27 this upcoming year - he is just now entering his prime, while guys like Bourn and Pagan will shortly be leaving theirs.

As far as position, if he comes in and hits .800 OPS then he does offer value in RF (Werth had a 4.2 WAR in '09 with a .879 OPS - which is only slightly higher than Fowler's OPS last season).

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12-04-2012, 02:45 PM
  #472
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Micahel Young had a -2.4 WAR last season (-1 oWAR and -2.2 dWAR).

Kevin Frandsen had a 1.5 WAR last season (1.3 oWAR and .3 dWAR).

I fully expect Frandsen to revert to mean with a .700ish OPS (put up .71 OPS in SF in his longest ML stint of 296 PAs), but, even if Young somehow defies time (or takes some PEDs) and rebounds this year I'd still put even odds on him having a lower WAR than Frandsen as long as the latters' dWAR stays slightly above neutral.

Again, we are excited to trade prospects for Michael Young because... he is a name we recognize from when he used to be good (offensively, at least)? If so, he'll fit right in with the rest of our lineup, unfortunately.
Look, I recognize that Michael Young is 36. However, looking at his career track, his WAR last season was a tremendous statistical anomaly. I personally believe that it's far more likely that Young rebounds to a level appropriate to the career decline he showed in every previous year (WAR was 2.4 in 2010) than it is for Kevin Fransden to even approximate the career best WAR he put up last year.

I see Young putting up a 1.0-1.5 and Fransden putting up a 0-.5. That means I can see some value in Young as an upgrade, but agree with your point about giving up any significant asset for Young. Something like a De Fratus for Young deal with Texas eating 6 million in salary would be in line with what I'd do.

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12-04-2012, 03:25 PM
  #473
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I'm sorry, but how does the stadium affect walk rate? Do the Rockies employ people to shine spotlights in opposing pitcher's eyes? Or do they pay off the umps every game? Or are you suggesting they steal signs? (Oh, the irony!)
That's why I said his split stats are crazy. It wasn't just last season. His career stats have the same pattern. There's been scientific evidence (as crazy as it sounds), that breaking balls don't have as much of a break at Coors field. His numbers suggest that might just be true.

He also strikes out at a 25% clip on the road compared to just under 20% at home. That's over 2000 plate appearances. That in no fluke.

The more I look at his numbers, the more I see Dom Brown. The numbers are very similar (Dom strikes out less). I'd rather just take my chances on Dom and not give up the prospects its going to cost for Fowler. Bourjos is the guy I hope they target now.

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12-04-2012, 03:32 PM
  #474
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Micahel Young had a -2.4 WAR last season (-1 oWAR and -2.2 dWAR).

Kevin Frandsen had a 1.5 WAR last season (1.3 oWAR and .3 dWAR).

I fully expect Frandsen to revert to mean with a .700ish OPS (put up .71 OPS in SF in his longest ML stint of 296 PAs), but, even if Young somehow defies time (or takes some PEDs) and rebounds this year I'd still put even odds on him having a lower WAR than Frandsen as long as the latters' dWAR stays slightly above neutral.

Again, we are excited to trade prospects for Michael Young because... he is a name we recognize from when he used to be good (offensively, at least)? If so, he'll fit right in with the rest of our lineup, unfortunately.
Useless stat's are...well useless.

Roy Halladay had a .7 WAR last year. Kyle Kendrick had a 1.3 WAR last year. Not ready to say Kendrick is better then Halladay just yet because of 1 bad year.

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12-04-2012, 03:37 PM
  #475
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Victornio in talks with Boston for a 3 year deal. They offered 37.5 million. Man that's a lot of dough for Vic. No wonder the phillies won't go near him.

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