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Old
12-03-2012, 01:58 PM
  #201
JayOnrait18
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Oilers never trade Eberle

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12-03-2012, 06:30 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by bluemandan View Post
30-40 points for Petry on the Blues? Really?

I think you are way off base. You are anticipating a 5-15 point jump in production from a player that has only has one season with more than 30 points, and that in the USHL six years ago. A jump that big would put Petry in the second level of PMD in the entire league.

40 points would put Petry at 19th in the league last season, tied with Duncan Keith.

35 points would put Petry at 29th in the league last season, one point better than Lidstrom.

30 points would put Petry at 41st in the league last season, tied with Alex Goligoski.

Can you provide any reasoning as to why you think Petry would score at these levels on a lower scoring team (overall) while playing with lower scoring players than while in Edmonton?
40+ points for Petry is not a bad prediction, especially in Edmonton with that killer powerlay and lethal offense.

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12-03-2012, 06:39 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by lakai17 View Post
40+ points for Petry is not a bad prediction, especially in Edmonton with that killer powerlay and lethal offense.
Yea but the original comment said he would be a 40 defenseman in St. Louis. That's pushing it a bit far don't ya think? Especially considering he hasn't even cracked 30 yet.

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12-03-2012, 06:42 PM
  #204
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Originally Posted by BleedBlue247 View Post
Yea but the original comment said he would be a 40 defenseman in St. Louis. That's pushing it a bit far don't ya think? Especially considering he hasn't even cracked 30 yet.
maybe on St.louis?

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12-03-2012, 06:42 PM
  #205
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Originally Posted by lakai17 View Post
40+ points for Petry is not a bad prediction, especially in Edmonton with that killer powerlay and lethal offense.
Too bad we are talking about how many point Petry would put up on the Blues, who don't have a killer powerplay and lethal offense.

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12-03-2012, 06:44 PM
  #206
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Originally Posted by lakai17 View Post
maybe on St.louis?
So he can't do it playing with some high octane players but he'll do it on a team that plays a defensive system? Hitchcock's defensive schemes don't typically generate a whole lot of offense from the back end. Pietrangelo is the exception, and that's because he is so incredibly talented. Petry's a decent defenseman, but he wouldn't generate that much offense on the Blues.

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12-03-2012, 07:10 PM
  #207
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Originally Posted by bluemandan View Post
30-40 points for Petry on the Blues? Really?

I think you are way off base. You are anticipating a 5-15 point jump in production from a player that has only has one season with more than 30 points, and that in the USHL six years ago. A jump that big would put Petry in the second level of PMD in the entire league.

40 points would put Petry at 19th in the league last season, tied with Duncan Keith.

35 points would put Petry at 29th in the league last season, one point better than Lidstrom.

30 points would put Petry at 41st in the league last season, tied with Alex Goligoski.

Can you provide any reasoning as to why you think Petry would score at these levels on a lower scoring team (overall) while playing with lower scoring players than while in Edmonton?
First off the 30-40 point projection for Petry would be the average for his career in stlouis. Next year, he'd probably slot in around the 30 point mark which is a pretty reasonable estimate assuming he keeps up his play from the last half of the last season where he was on pace for something like 33 points. Petry didn't get much pp time in Edmonton and virtually none on the first unit (which was our only successful unit) and therefore most of his points were at evens. In stlouis he'd be the second best offensive dman, with shattenkirk gone, and would get first unit time if they put 2 d on their pp or at least qb the second unit which would ought to be more successful than Edmontons second unit

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12-03-2012, 07:20 PM
  #208
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Originally Posted by Redden View Post
First off the 30-40 point projection for Petry would be the average for his career in stlouis. Next year, he'd probably slot in around the 30 point mark which is a pretty reasonable estimate assuming he keeps up his play from the last half of the last season where he was on pace for something like 33 points. Petry didn't get much pp time in Edmonton and virtually none on the first unit (which was our only successful unit) and therefore most of his points were at evens. In stlouis he'd be the second best offensive dman, with shattenkirk gone, and would get first unit time if they put 2 d on their pp or at least qb the second unit which would ought to be more successful than Edmontons second unit
There's that pesky half-season argument again. You can't project what he will do in the future based off of one half of a season of play. You still didn't even address the fact that the Blues are a defensive system that tends to lower defensemens point totals. Also, if Shattenkirk were to be gone you wouldn't see Petry on the first pairing PP. You'd most likely see Steen.

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12-03-2012, 07:35 PM
  #209
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Originally Posted by BleedBlue247 View Post
So he can't do it playing with some high octane players but he'll do it on a team that plays a defensive system? Hitchcock's defensive schemes don't typically generate a whole lot of offense from the back end. Pietrangelo is the exception, and that's because he is so incredibly talented. Petry's a decent defenseman, but he wouldn't generate that much offense on the Blues.
how many offensive defenceman do St.louis dress come game day? Jeff Petry would generate offense with the Blues and yes, even under Hitchcocks system.

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12-03-2012, 07:42 PM
  #210
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Originally Posted by lakai17 View Post
how many offensive defenceman do St.louis dress come game day? Jeff Petry would generate offense with the Blues and yes, even under Hitchcocks system.
3. Pie, shatty, russell

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12-03-2012, 07:54 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by BleedBlue247 View Post
There's that pesky half-season argument again. You can't project what he will do in the future based off of one half of a season of play. You still didn't even address the fact that the Blues are a defensive system that tends to lower defensemens point totals. Also, if Shattenkirk were to be gone you wouldn't see Petry on the first pairing PP. You'd most likely see Steen.
Well seeing how petry has only played 108 games, I think it okay to use the last forty to project him. He struggled mightily with confidence in his first sixty games which is perfectly understandable with Edmontons then awful d. Once he got his confidence his play improved dramatically and I'm using this stretch to project him.
And I did address the switch of systems noting that either Petry would get first unit pp time or be part of a better second unit.
So based on his second half numbers, which project a 33 point year, and more pp points he should still be able to get 30 points with stlouis

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12-03-2012, 08:00 PM
  #212
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Well since Petry gets that kind of treatment, then we should expect just under a PPG from Pietrangelo next year. Stamkos hit 70, right?

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12-03-2012, 08:04 PM
  #213
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lakai17 View Post
how many offensive defenceman do St.louis dress come game day? Jeff Petry would generate offense with the Blues and yes, even under Hitchcocks system.
You can't be serious. Even in this thread Jeff Petry is being billed as a two way defenseman, and now you're telling me he's going to generate a good amount of offense? Hell look at Kris Russell. He's viewed as primarily an offensive defenseman, and he hardly put up any points. (Side note, he was fantastic last season). If Kevin Shattenkirk barely breaks 40, I highly doubt Petry even comes close.

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Well seeing how petry has only played 108 games, I think it okay to use the last forty to project him. He struggled mightily with confidence in his first sixty games which is perfectly understandable with Edmontons then awful d. Once he got his confidence his play improved dramatically and I'm using this stretch to project him.
And I did address the switch of systems noting that either Petry would get first unit pp time or be part of a better second unit.
So based on his second half numbers, which project a 33 point year, and more pp points he should still be able to get 30 points with stlouis
You can't project a player's future on a 40 or so game stretch. How many times do I have to say this? Again, he has never exceeded even 30 points since he turned pro. How exactly is he supposed to go to a defensive oriented system and produce more? Even if he plays power play, he'll still very likely lose points at even strength due to the system.

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12-04-2012, 11:00 AM
  #214
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Originally Posted by Redden View Post
Well seeing how petry has only played 108 games, I think it okay to use the last forty to project him. He struggled mightily with confidence in his first sixty games which is perfectly understandable with Edmontons then awful d. Once he got his confidence his play improved dramatically and I'm using this stretch to project him.
And I did address the switch of systems noting that either Petry would get first unit pp time or be part of a better second unit.
So based on his second half numbers, which project a 33 point year, and more pp points he should still be able to get 30 points with stlouis
Petry would be the third PMD option on the Blues behind Pietragelo.

Edmonton's PP% last season - 20.6%
St. Louis's PP% last season - 16.7%

Can you explain further how Petry will get more points because he will be on a better power play unit?

Going from passing the puck to Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jordan Eberle to passing the puck to David Perron, Patrik Berglund, and Chris Stewart will result in a decrease in production, not an increase.

I really don't understand how it is difficult to understand. When you play with ~50 point players instead of ~80, you will have less of your passes converted into goals.

Just because Petry would be coming back for Shattenkirk, it doesn't mean that the Blues will use Petry to fill Shattenkirk's role.

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12-04-2012, 11:12 AM
  #215
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Hell if Petry gets 40 with St. Louis then Shattenkirk gets 60 with Edmonton.


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12-05-2012, 01:13 PM
  #216
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Hell if Petry gets 40 with St. Louis then Shattenkirk gets 60 with Edmonton.
More like 70...

I mean, if Petry's points are going to go up by 15 because he went to a team with a weaker offense where he got less offensive ice time, then Shattenkirk's are going to increase by twice that much going to a better offensive team where he can be the go-to-guy for offense from the blueline.

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12-06-2012, 04:33 PM
  #217
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The best league isn't what league is most similar to the NHL, it's the league with the best competition.
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The AHL added prospects and some young, and in some cases very good NHL talent. The Euro leagues added NHL veterans and NHL stars. None of the leagues on the planet are close to the level of the NHL, so none of the stats really matter all that much.
Maybe not but it would seem to be he best league to compare to the Nhl as it is the most similar as you say.
Also when looking at a player you need to look at the whole picture. The whole picture with Eberle is he has been a star at every level, has scored at every level and has had a high shooting % at evey level. He has elevated his game at critical moments. In short he is not just a star, he is clutch. I think anyone underestimating Eberle does so at their own peril of looking foolish later. I dont do any trade that involves Ebs unless it is so rediculous an overpay that no sane person could say no.

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12-06-2012, 06:11 PM
  #218
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Ahh okay bluemandan and bleedblue123, how much have you seen petry play? Did you see personally how he transformed his play from struggling to a top 4 dman? How his and smids great play, finally giving us a legit pairing, led to dubnyk posting some great stats in the last half year? How he improved week to week to week? If you did by all means I'll debate the value of petry with you. If not, I dont know why youre pretending to be experts on him. Having followed hockey for awhile you can see which players are going to keep improving (smart players just needing confidence) compared to ones who won't improve that much more like gagner after his rookie season where he just doesn't have the skill or speed to improve. Petry falls into the former. Notice the objectivity in evaluating players, I'm not just a homer saying petry is great just because he's an oiler.
And just to answer some of your questions why not project Petrys next year on his last forty games? Those are the forty he actually played with confidence for and reflect his true ability. You're right he hasn't reached thirty points yet in the NHL, I've heard young players usually progress in their first five seasons and get better stats. As far a your defensive system making it harder for defensemen to score, Erik Johnson posted the worst totals of his career and Eric brewer posted lower ppg in their next full season out of stlouis. Your theory lacks some proof.
Bluemandan, he's the third PMD behin pietrangelo and who else? And if you didn't jump in half way through you'll notice I said petry doesn't play first pp unit which gets way more time and is way more successful than the second unit. This tells me youve seen very little of petry play and are uneducated on his value. Petry, even if he played second unit in stlouis, would be on a better unit that gets more time than Edmontons second unit. That's where the increase in pp points comes from. And also if both of you read my posts, it mentions a couple times petry will get 30 points next year not 40. Let me know if I'm vastly misreading your posts too cuz I know how frustrating it is to constantly have to repeat an argument

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12-06-2012, 06:25 PM
  #219
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Ahh okay bluemandan and bleedblue123, how much have you seen petry play? Did you see personally how he transformed his play from struggling to a top 4 dman? How his and smids great play, finally giving us a legit pairing, led to dubnyk posting some great stats in the last half year? How he improved week to week to week? If you did by all means I'll debate the value of petry with you. If not, I dont know why youre pretending to be experts on him. Having followed hockey for awhile you can see which players are going to keep improving (smart players just needing confidence) compared to ones who won't improve that much more like gagner after his rookie season where he just doesn't have the skill or speed to improve. Petry falls into the former. Notice the objectivity in evaluating players, I'm not just a homer saying petry is great just because he's an oiler.
And just to answer some of your questions why not project Petrys next year on his last forty games? Those are the forty he actually played with confidence for and reflect his true ability. You're right he hasn't reached thirty points yet in the NHL, I've heard young players usually progress in their first five seasons and get better stats. As far a your defensive system making it harder for defensemen to score, Erik Johnson posted the worst totals of his career and Eric brewer posted lower ppg in their next full season out of stlouis. Your theory lacks some proof.
Bluemandan, he's the third PMD behin pietrangelo and who else? And if you didn't jump in half way through you'll notice I said petry doesn't play first pp unit which gets way more time and is way more successful than the second unit. This tells me youve seen very little of petry play and are uneducated on his value. Petry, even if he played second unit in stlouis, would be on a better unit that gets more time than Edmontons second unit. That's where the increase in pp points comes from. And also if both of you read my posts, it mentions a couple times petry will get 30 points next year not 40. Let me know if I'm vastly misreading your posts too cuz I know how frustrating it is to constantly have to repeat an argument
Easy there big boy. We hired Hitchcock last year.

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12-06-2012, 06:33 PM
  #220
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Easy there big boy. We hired Hitchcock last year.
Okay, my bad. Still, Pietrangelos and Shattenkirks points did not suffer at all under his system. Why will Petry's?

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12-06-2012, 07:15 PM
  #221
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Okay, my bad. Still, Pietrangelos and Shattenkirks points did not suffer at all under his system. Why will Petry's?
If you really want to compare Petry to Pietrangelo, by all means have at it. But you're going to be the one looking silly. And you can't say they didn't suffer because you have absolutely no idea how they would have done without Hitchcock. But it is fair to say that Pietrangelo did better later in the season. Of course that was after figuring out his defensive responsibilities (which he does better than anyone) as well as the return of Perron and McDonald and Steen. So we shall see what happens.

Still the Blues' system is much more defensive than the Oilers, the powerplay isn't as good, and there are fewer (as in zero) #1 overall picks in the Blues' offense. So it's hard to make a claim that Petry would outperform a better offensive defenseman in Shattenkirk who has consistently outproduced Petry, who has never put up more than 45 points at any level of hockey after he was 16.

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12-06-2012, 07:34 PM
  #222
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If you really want to compare Petry to Pietrangelo, by all means have at it. But you're going to be the one looking silly. And you can't say they didn't suffer because you have absolutely no idea how they would have done without Hitchcock. But it is fair to say that Pietrangelo did better later in the season. Of course that was after figuring out his defensive responsibilities (which he does better than anyone) as well as the return of Perron and McDonald and Steen. So we shall see what happens.

Still the Blues' system is much more defensive than the Oilers, the powerplay isn't as good, and there are fewer (as in zero) #1 overall picks in the Blues' offense. So it's hard to make a claim that Petry would outperform a better offensive defenseman in Shattenkirk who has consistently outproduced Petry, who has never put up more than 45 points at any level of hockey after he was 16.
Just read my previous posts before replying. There is no comparison whatsoever with Pietrangelo. Pietrangelo is a elite defencemen who is much better. Also I never say Petry will outperform Shattenkirk. I only say Petry will get 30 points with them. I recognize Shattenkirk is better, and more offensive. I just said their points didn't suffer in a more defensive system, so why should Petry's, that's all. I agree there is no way to know how they would have done without Hitchcock but the point I was originally making was that there is no evidence saying Petry's stats should drastically go down solely because of this "defensive system". Just read my previous posts before replying because I don't want to repeat myself again on why he'll do alright in stlouis.

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12-06-2012, 07:48 PM
  #223
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If you don't think their production doesn't suffer from a defensive system and lack of star power, then I don't know what to tell you.

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12-06-2012, 09:02 PM
  #224
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If you don't think their production doesn't suffer from a defensive system and lack of star power, then I don't know what to tell you.
If you are going to try and sound smart at least say it right. But I know what youre trying to say and the defensive system employed by Hitchcock could of very likely inhibited them from doing better, but their points didn't regress from their previous year to the last one. Natural progression is probably why they didn't regress, but Petry's progression will likely cancel out any inhibition from Hitchcock's system too.

The whole point of my posts is that it isn't unreasonable in the least to suggest Petry can get 30 points with the blues.

No need for Blues fans to jump all over one point of my post looking for any hole in it just for the sake of arguing

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12-06-2012, 09:17 PM
  #225
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Who said I was trying to sound smart? Sounds like a personal attack, where my post did nothing of the sort. I'm just stating my opinion about the system the Blues employ...The one that everyone complains about being boring and killing hockey.

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