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Old
11-20-2012, 09:27 PM
  #51
Mystlyfe
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#1 picks on defensemen usually end up pretty lukewarm. Erik Johnson, Hamrlik, Phillips, Jovocop, Berard, etc. Not bad players, but not exactly what you hope for from the 1st overall pick.

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11-20-2012, 11:34 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
#1 picks on defensemen usually end up pretty lukewarm. Erik Johnson, Hamrlik, Phillips, Jovocop, Berard, etc. Not bad players, but not exactly what you hope for from the 1st overall pick.
Because all prospects are the same.

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11-21-2012, 01:45 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Braden Carlzner View Post
Because all prospects are the same.
The point is that defensemen, even that high in the draft, are still somewhat hit or miss. Forwards at that echelon have a far more consistent track record of becoming elite NHLers.

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11-21-2012, 12:02 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Braden Carlzner View Post
Because all prospects are the same.
Exactly, they are.

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11-21-2012, 01:32 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Braden Carlzner View Post
Because all prospects are the same.
Of course not. But those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. I'm not suggesting that you should base all your actions around those players' outcomes, but rather that it's an important and interesting trend that you should factor into your decision.

Go look at the scouting reports for Seth Jones and Erik Johnson, and see how eerily similar they are. Both are called smooth skating, phsyically gifted, big-minute defensemen with great awareness who think the game well and can contribute in any zone. Both are billed as future powerplay QBs. Both are compared to Chris Pronger. Hell, both even played for the USNTDP for two years.

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Originally Posted by Zoidberg Jesus View Post
The point is that defensemen, even that high in the draft, are still somewhat hit or miss. Forwards at that echelon have a far more consistent track record of becoming elite NHLers.
Not so much "hit or miss" as mild success all around. None of those really "busted," but none ever became a franchise player. Berard is the closest to busting (thanks in part to an eye injury), and even he won a Calder trophy. But when the best of the bunch are Ed Jovanovski and Roman Hamrlik, you see that they're not meeting the hype expected of the #1 selection.

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11-21-2012, 02:47 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Zoidberg Jesus View Post
The point is that defensemen, even that high in the draft, are still somewhat hit or miss. Forwards at that echelon have a far more consistent track record of becoming elite NHLers.
But also a higher record of becoming complete busts...

You pick one or the other because your scouts like one or the other better for actual reasons not the history of number one overalls who played one position or another and that would be the case no matter how many Potvins had been selected 1st overall over the years...

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11-21-2012, 04:01 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Go look at the scouting reports for Seth Jones and Erik Johnson, and see how eerily similar they are. Both are called smooth skating, phsyically gifted, big-minute defensemen with great awareness who think the game well and can contribute in any zone. Both are billed as future powerplay QBs. Both are compared to Chris Pronger. Hell, both even played for the USNTDP for two years.
Except if Erik Johnson didn't get attacked by a golf cart, he would probably be that player everyone pegged him as.

And with Jones, I personally see all those gifts. The kid has a cannon of a shot and his passing is even better. The huge knack on him is his weight and lack of physicality.

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Old
12-03-2012, 08:36 PM
  #58
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Teravainen shouldn't have fallen to 18 either, but he did. I could definitely see the Caps finishing in that range and having the Russian Factor drop Nichushkin into their laps.
The caps shouldn't stop drafting players that fall in the standings because of their nationalities, especially forwards like kuznetsov and forsberg(not exactly sure why he dropped). It seems to be working for the caps even if there is a "russian factor"

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12-03-2012, 11:13 PM
  #59
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The caps shouldn't stop drafting players that fall in the standings because of their nationalities, especially forwards like kuznetsov and forsberg(not exactly sure why he dropped). It seems to be working for the caps even if there is a "russian factor"
Orlov fell too, 9th ranked European, picked 55th..

Johansson was also a faller too, 8th ranked European Caps got 24th.. Though according to McKenzie he was stetch who had him at 33.

Some people may peg me as too much in love with Russian players, but its always because I know they will fall and still be great player. GMGM has been great at picking late first rounders that were truly top 10 talents. The only guy he has truly been wrong about I think so far is Grigorenko.

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12-04-2012, 01:57 AM
  #60
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Johansson was also a faller too, 8th ranked European Caps got 24th..
You do know that 8th ranked Euro puts mojo around 24th overall right? The draft is always more na heavy...I like the pick too, but let's not praise something that its not. Wanna talk value euros? Talk Gus...

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12-04-2012, 09:53 AM
  #61
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Value Euros? Pssssh. We're just drafting the entire USNTDP.

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01-15-2013, 10:41 AM
  #62
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Central Scouting's midterm rankings. Lazar at 26 in NA, Zadorov at 30 and Zykov at 8. That's a lot of QMJHL forwards at the top.

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01-15-2013, 10:46 AM
  #63
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Central Scouting's midterm rankings. Lazar at 26 in NA, Zadorov at 30 and Zykov at 8. That's a lot of QMJHL forwards at the top.
Taylor Cammaratta being off the list completely is absolutely insane.

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01-15-2013, 11:06 AM
  #64
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Lazars played great lately I don't really know how his slide continues

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01-15-2013, 01:24 PM
  #65
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Except if Erik Johnson didn't get attacked by a golf cart, he would probably be that player everyone pegged him as.

And with Jones, I personally see all those gifts. The kid has a cannon of a shot and his passing is even better. The huge knack on him is his weight and lack of physicality.
He'd be better physically no doubt but you can't fix stupid. Whether his physical gifts would be so great as to completely nullify his comparatively low hockey IQ is another thing.

As far as Jones, we heard all the same with Hedman and Larsson (and Johnson) being the best D prospect in the last 10 years.

Defensemen experience the most developmental change the most from juniors to majors of any other position. You may be 80% sure of what you're getting with a top 5 picked F but only 60% sure with a top 5 selected D (pulled the numbers out of my *** but you get the idea). A top pick spent on D is effectively less valuable than a top pick spent on a forward because of this uncertainty. You can put together an exceptional defensive core with mid 1st-mid 3rd round picks. Look at where Lidstrom, Chara, Weber, Carlson, Subban were drafted. If you do a skill level to draft status plot for top pairing D you'll see a ton of them selected late. Alzner is great but McDonaugh and Subban can lay claim to being better or at level from that same draft. Only jackpot top D in recent memory was the 2008 draft but that was an outlier.

Only way I spend a top 10 pick on a defenseman is if his hockey sense is completely out of this world, like OEL, Doughty or Pietrangelo. Pass on the Hedmans and Reinharts and Cowens and Hamiltons and get those types later in the 1st/2nd. Pittsburgh has a pretty good first round model except when they went full retard and picked Pouliot 7th overall.


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Old
01-15-2013, 01:47 PM
  #66
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http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

Button has Lazar @ 27 previously 13.

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01-15-2013, 01:48 PM
  #67
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After seeing him in the WJC I hope we're able to swing Nichushkin. Imagine he and Wilson on the same line some day.

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01-16-2013, 06:14 PM
  #68
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CHL Top Prospects game on NHLN now.

Game summary.

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01-16-2013, 09:59 PM
  #69
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Without knowing anything about the current slate of prospects, I'd like to see them draft some D. Cupboard's pretty bare on the blueline.

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Old
01-17-2013, 12:21 AM
  #70
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If the season goes to hell and they get a 5-15 pick I really hope they don't use it on D. Late firsts or 2nds, sure. Ideally I'd use first and 2nd rounders on forwards and then splooge for like 8 defensemen in the later rounds.

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01-17-2013, 12:55 AM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
If the season goes to hell and they get a 5-15 pick I really hope they don't use it on D. Late firsts or 2nds, sure. Ideally I'd use first and 2nd rounders on forwards and then splooge for like 8 defensemen in the later rounds.
That works.

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Old
01-23-2013, 10:31 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
If the season goes to hell and they get a 5-15 pick I really hope they don't use it on D. Late firsts or 2nds, sure. Ideally I'd use first and 2nd rounders on forwards and then splooge for like 8 defensemen in the later rounds.
It depends on who's available. From 5-15 you're talking about Ristolainen, Nurse, Pulock & Zadorov mainly with maybe some others in the fringe. I wouldn't take any of them over Monahan or Shinkaruk but after that I'm not sure there's a can't miss forward outside the top five. Nichushkin checks many boxes but I'd probably go with Ristolainen or Nurse over him. Lazar, Wennberg & Horvat are fairly safe center prospects IMO but you'd be banking on their hockey sense and work ethic translating to 2C production more than sheer skill level. Erne is another option and they could definitely use a capable left-handed winger.

At this point it's probably actually easier to integrate one of those D in a year or two than a forward that not only has to adjust to NHL pace/strength but also what's increasingly a disjointed forward group. More skill wouldn't hurt, of course, but the existing spotty decision-making and work ethic would not make it easy on young forwards.

I like the leadership potential of those second-tier centers but this team could use that on defense as well.

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Old
01-24-2013, 04:02 PM
  #73
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http://thehockeywriters.com/2013-nhl...term-rankings/

THW, Drouin first, MacKinnon 2nd, Jones 3rd. Nichushkin at 10.

Some of the doubt revolving around Nichushkin was he wasn't playing in the KHL, but now he has 14 games in the KHL and will probably continue playing through out the season and playoffs.

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Old
01-24-2013, 04:34 PM
  #74
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01-24-2013, 07:52 PM
  #75
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Hopefully if we end up with a top-10/top-5 pick we manage to get a center (Barkov, MacKinnon, Lindholm, etc) to play behind Backstrom.... finally fill up the 2C hole for good

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