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Jets - Free Agents, Trades, Rumors, Speculation - Off Season 2012-13 (Part X)

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12-04-2012, 01:06 AM
  #26
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I don't get all the pessimism around Pavs all of a sudden. It seems like at the end of last year every acknowledged that he's a young developing goalie. He has sky high potential, but has yet to put it all together. I'm fine with that, once he suits up for the Jets next I expect to see improvement. Till then, I'm not going to change my opinion I formed last year.

The DUI though concerning is a non-factor to me. As is the play in Europe. I didn't see the games, I don't know the circumstances.

I'll roll the dice with Pavs for the time being. I believe he's got number 1 potential, I'm willing to give him the opportunity to reach that in Winnipeg.

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12-04-2012, 01:06 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Paradise View Post
Most of Pavs value is based on his potential. The teams that were listed aren't going to give up good prospects plus their starter for Pavs. Lets be realistic here. Do people think those other goalies wouldn't be ridiculed here either?
All of the trades I suggested favored the Jets big time, but the only way anyone would trade for Pav is if they wanted him as a starter.

The return is appropriate for a starter even if Pav is not that guy.

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12-04-2012, 01:08 AM
  #28
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Yeah agreed with Paradise. We won't get the big value for Pavelec. For example a Pavelec for Dubnyk swap would basically be nothing more than a lateral move for both teams, not sure why Edmonton would add any value to the trade? Crawford is a step backwards for Winnipeg in terms of age and skill level, something Winnipeg cannot afford. Reimer for Pavelec is basically another lateral swap, with Reimer maybe having little less proven. At least from the other teams perspectives, why would they add anything significant onto a potential for potential trade?

As much as I'd love to add a top flight goalie, I think he best move right now is to ride out Pavelec's career swing. Sure keep looking in the draft/via trade for younger guy that might still away Pav's spot soon if Pavelec does not continue to develop, but right now we have little choice but to chain all our hopes on Pavelec.

Hopefully he can take that next step. If he can't, well, we'll cross that bridge when we get there, IMO.
I agree.

I was working under the premiss that somebody wanted Pav.

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12-04-2012, 01:15 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by wpgsilver View Post
I don't get all the pessimism around Pavs all of a sudden. It seems like at the end of last year every acknowledged that he's a young developing goalie. He has sky high potential, but has yet to put it all together. I'm fine with that, once he suits up for the Jets next I expect to see improvement. Till then, I'm not going to change my opinion I formed last year.

The DUI though concerning is a non-factor to me. As is the play in Europe. I didn't see the games, I don't know the circumstances.

I'll roll the dice with Pavs for the time being. I believe he's got number 1 potential, I'm willing to give him the opportunity to reach that in Winnipeg.
My opinion was formed last year too. I wrote this well before the DUI:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2012/...wn-by-his-team

My concerns are:
He is inconsistent.
He regressed.
He has a history of poor diet and work habits
He has a history of not taking coaching well.

The DUI and terrible intl. play are more proof of concept than new evidence IMO. I don't read much into them though.

Yes Pav has upside and yes I hope he gets there, but I am not a believer and I really don't like his contract.

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12-04-2012, 01:37 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
My opinion was formed last year too. I wrote this well before the DUI:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2012/...wn-by-his-team

My concerns are:
He is inconsistent.
He regressed.
He has a history of poor diet and work habits
He has a history of not taking coaching well.

The DUI and terrible intl. play are more proof of concept than new evidence IMO. I don't read much into them though.

Yes Pav has upside and yes I hope he gets there, but I am not a believer and I really don't like his contract.
Did you watch him before last year?

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12-04-2012, 01:46 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Paradise View Post
Did you watch him before last year?
Not often.

By regression, I mean regression from a statistical perspective.

I can buy an off year, but regardless of what anybody's eye test tells me I can't buy that he got better and put up worse number on a better team.

I went into thorough detail in the article.

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12-04-2012, 01:47 AM
  #32
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Speaking of a quality goalie that could be had for zero assets next year (besides money)...Tim Thomas. I'm not really sure how others feel about him as an option, but he's certainly elite and hasn't shown signs of slowing down (he has very little wear on his tires for his age).

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12-04-2012, 01:50 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Paradise View Post
Speaking of a quality goalie that could be had for zero assets next year (besides money)...Tim Thomas. I'm not really sure how others feel about him as an option, but he's certainly elite and hasn't shown signs of slowing down (he has very little wear on his tires for his age).
If Obama gives him fits, I can't imagine he is fond of Canada.

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12-04-2012, 01:58 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
Not often.

By regression, I mean regression from a statistical perspective.
That's the thing, goalies are strange that they can have up and down years (consistency wise), compared to other positions. Their progress isn't easy to project from a linear perspective. I agree that he could have been better last year, but that doesn't mean that he won't have a good year when the season starts either or in the future. He's still young and hopefully can have a bounce back year. He was progressing well before last year, so there's a chance that last year was an anomaly. I'm willing to see if it was before passing a final judgement on him.

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12-04-2012, 01:59 AM
  #35
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If Obama gives him fits, I can't imagine he is fond of Canada.
Harper is more right wing than Obama.

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12-04-2012, 02:01 AM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Not often.

By regression, I mean regression from a statistical perspective.

I can buy an off year, but regardless of what anybody's eye test tells me I can't buy that he got better and put up worse number on a better team.

I went into thorough detail in the article.
I agree with you there. He wasn't better than his previous year. I don't think anyone is disputing that.

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12-04-2012, 02:11 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Paradise View Post
That's the thing, goalies are strange that they can have up and down years (consistency wise), compared to other positions. Their progress isn't easy to project from a linear perspective. I agree that he could have been better last year, but that doesn't mean that he won't have a good year when the season starts either or in the future. He's still young and hopefully can have a bounce back year. He was progressing well before last year, so there's a chance that last year was an anomaly. I'm willing to see if it was before passing a final judgement on him.
Hopefully!!

I am forever an optimist even if the numbers or logic tell me otherwise.

As adamant as I am that I don't like the odds, I always remain hopeful and I want to be proven wrong.

Same goes for the Scheifele / Couturier thing. I thought and still think Couturier was the right pick, but I love Mark and want him to prove me wrong.

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12-04-2012, 02:26 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
Hopefully!!

I am forever an optimist even if the numbers or logic tell me otherwise.

As adamant as I am that I don't like the odds, I always remain hopeful and I want to be proven wrong.

Same goes for the Scheifele / Couturier thing. I thought and still think Couturier was the right pick, but I love Mark and want him to prove me wrong.
Numbers in this case aren't the final product. There's only estimated guessing as of right now. I understand that you aren't very confident with how Pav's has played or what his future looks like, but there's still more to prove in his career. Until then there's really no way to tell how it all plays out. Using logic when it comes to individuals is always a risk IMO.

I do agree with you only the Scheifele subject. I also hope I'm wrong about that.

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12-04-2012, 02:56 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wpgsilver View Post
I don't get all the pessimism around Pavs all of a sudden. It seems like at the end of last year every acknowledged that he's a young developing goalie. He has sky high potential, but has yet to put it all together. I'm fine with that, once he suits up for the Jets next I expect to see improvement. Till then, I'm not going to change my opinion I formed last year.

The DUI though concerning is a non-factor to me. As is the play in Europe. I didn't see the games, I don't know the circumstances.

I'll roll the dice with Pavs for the time being. I believe he's got number 1 potential, I'm willing to give him the opportunity to reach that in Winnipeg.
Meh, not for me. The DUI issue is a complete non-issue for me. I don't see how it in any way shape or form effects him at this point, nor do I believe that the well "carefully planned coverup" reflects poorly on his character as some have suggested.

But my concerns with him have dated back to last year. Although he had some moments of dominance, with some spectacular saves, he was not nearly consistant enough. Early on in the year I defended him alot. As the year wore on, not so much. He has been fine overall not spectacular. Hard to say, but one might say you can almost see shades of Mathieu Garon. Absolutely spectacular in stretches, but overall unable to put it together over long stretches, particularly when used as a true #1 guy, and results in very pedestrian stats. That being said you could also point to a guy like Luongo, who was back and forth his first few years in NYI with a bad team, broke out with FLA in 00-01 with a .920 in 48gp, before regressing somewhat as the full-time starter in 02-04 (.915, .918), before finally coming into his own in 03-04 (.931 in 73gp), again always with poor teams, ala Pavelec.

Maybe we see that type of progression in Pavelec (although Luongo was better then, even in off-years suggesting a lower ceiling for Pavelec), it is not unheard of for a goalie to take him time adjusting to a starter's role in the NHL. So that's why I say roll the dice with Pav...for now.

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12-04-2012, 06:14 AM
  #40
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I am content rolling the dice with Pavs for now as well but I would be Keeping my eyes and options open. his contract this past spring was interesting to me. I am not sure whether it was a vote of confidence or a young GM getting jacked by a shark when we didn't seem to have any other choice? We have cap room but we overpaid or paid for potential I guess.

He is a "we'll see" type in my books......as long as he improves statistically (even modestly) I will be more than satisfied for now. if he could be league average that would be a huge for us. we cannot afford to have him take a step backwards.

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12-04-2012, 07:43 AM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paradise View Post
Speaking of a quality goalie that could be had for zero assets next year (besides money)...Tim Thomas. I'm not really sure how others feel about him as an option, but he's certainly elite and hasn't shown signs of slowing down (he has very little wear on his tires for his age).
I would hope that Chevy would inquire about Thomas' willingness to consider Winnipeg. Political views and all that garbage aside, I'd definitely rather roll the dice on him than trade assets for the likes of Crawford, Reimer, Dubnyk or Neuvirth who all seem like lateral moves at best.

As far as Pavelec goes, I think he'll be fine and he will lead us to the playoffs within two years. I'm content with going with Pavs for now.

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12-04-2012, 08:18 AM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Meh, not for me. The DUI issue is a complete non-issue for me. I don't see how it in any way shape or form effects him at this point, nor do I believe that the well "carefully planned coverup" reflects poorly on his character as some have suggested.

But my concerns with him have dated back to last year. Although he had some moments of dominance, with some spectacular saves, he was not nearly consistant enough. Early on in the year I defended him alot. As the year wore on, not so much. He has been fine overall not spectacular. Hard to say, but one might say you can almost see shades of Mathieu Garon. Absolutely spectacular in stretches, but overall unable to put it together over long stretches, particularly when used as a true #1 guy, and results in very pedestrian stats. That being said you could also point to a guy like Luongo, who was back and forth his first few years in NYI with a bad team, broke out with FLA in 00-01 with a .920 in 48gp, before regressing somewhat as the full-time starter in 02-04 (.915, .918), before finally coming into his own in 03-04 (.931 in 73gp), again always with poor teams, ala Pavelec.

Maybe we see that type of progression in Pavelec (although Luongo was better then, even in off-years suggesting a lower ceiling for Pavelec), it is not unheard of for a goalie to take him time adjusting to a starter's role in the NHL. So that's why I say roll the dice with Pav...for now.
I hope so.

Makes me sad that Lu's worst seasons are on par with Pav's best thus far. Then again, Lu is pretty one of the best ever.

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12-04-2012, 01:48 PM
  #43
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I would hope that Chevy would inquire about Thomas' willingness to consider Winnipeg. Political views and all that garbage aside, I'd definitely rather roll the dice on him than trade assets for the likes of Crawford, Reimer, Dubnyk or Neuvirth who all seem like lateral moves at best.

As far as Pavelec goes, I think he'll be fine and he will lead us to the playoffs within two years. I'm content with going with Pavs for now.
Thomas will be 39, going on 40 at the beginning of next season - and he's a bit of a loose cannon/flake/distraction. And he's coming off a year of not playing any hockey (I understand that a lot of goalies may be in that situation next season, but that's probably going to hurt a 40 year old more than a 30 year old). Anyway, I think I'd rather take my chances with Pavelec...

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12-04-2012, 02:12 PM
  #44
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Thomas will be 39, going on 40 at the beginning of next season - and he's a bit of a loose cannon/flake/distraction. And he's coming off a year of not playing any hockey (I understand that a lot of goalies may be in that situation next season, but that's probably going to hurt a 40 year old more than a 30 year old). Anyway, I think I'd rather take my chances with Pavelec...
I said I'm fine with Pavelec, but I'd still rather take a chance on Thomas than trade Pavelec for any of the previously mentioned goalies who in my opinion are lateral moves.

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12-05-2012, 05:04 AM
  #45
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I would hope that Chevy would inquire about Thomas' willingness to consider Winnipeg. Political views and all that garbage aside, I'd definitely rather roll the dice on him than trade assets for the likes of Crawford, Reimer, Dubnyk or Neuvirth who all seem like lateral moves at best.

As far as Pavelec goes, I think he'll be fine and he will lead us to the playoffs within two years. I'm content with going with Pavs for now.
He either will or he won't. We're on the playoff bubble and he is that important.
If Pavs can get his GAA and Sv% to respectable levels--say< 2.5 and > .915 or so, that could push us into a playoff spot. I believe Garret or Truck came up with a formula to that effect some time ago.
If he remains great and mediocre on alternate weeks, we are in trouble.
It'll be interesting to watch and see now that it looks like we may actually have a season.

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12-10-2012, 09:19 PM
  #46
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Pavelec is getting a bum wrap from what I'm reading. He's fine. He's young. I trust him fully between the pipes. Is he the best goalie in the NHL? No. But he's in the top 20 in my opinion. There are other teams that should be WAY more concerned about their tending than us. (Chicago, Toronto, Washington, tampa?, Edmonton, Philly?, San Jose, columbus, new jersey, Colorado.)

Now don't jump down my throat for a couple of those teams, but any of those teams' top goalies are worse or comparable to Pavs imo. I'd be just fine going with him for now, but still put some emphasis on drafting a couple highly touted goalies in the near Future. Preferably the upcoming draft. For the reason that, beyond Pavelec, we don't got much.

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12-10-2012, 11:26 PM
  #47
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Pavelec is getting a bum wrap from what I'm reading. He's fine. He's young. I trust him fully between the pipes. Is he the best goalie in the NHL? No. But he's in the top 20 in my opinion. There are other teams that should be WAY more concerned about their tending than us. (Chicago, Toronto, Washington, tampa?, Edmonton, Philly?, San Jose, columbus, new jersey, Colorado.)

Now don't jump down my throat for a couple of those teams, but any of those teams' top goalies are worse or comparable to Pavs imo. I'd be just fine going with him for now, but still put some emphasis on drafting a couple highly touted goalies in the near Future. Preferably the upcoming draft. For the reason that, beyond Pavelec, we don't got much.
Some of those goalies pulled better numbers on worse teams (Edmonton and Columbus for example).

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12-11-2012, 12:06 AM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Daddy Longlegs View Post
Pavelec is getting a bum wrap from what I'm reading. He's fine. He's young. I trust him fully between the pipes. Is he the best goalie in the NHL? No. But he's in the top 20 in my opinion. There are other teams that should be WAY more concerned about their tending than us. (Chicago, Toronto, Washington, tampa?, Edmonton, Philly?, San Jose, columbus, new jersey, Colorado.)

Now don't jump down my throat for a couple of those teams, but any of those teams' top goalies are worse or comparable to Pavs imo. I'd be just fine going with him for now, but still put some emphasis on drafting a couple highly touted goalies in the near Future. Preferably the upcoming draft. For the reason that, beyond Pavelec, we don't got much.
I would trade Pavi for Varlamov in an instant.

Dubnyk seems fairly lateral to me. Less upside, but more consistency.

Most of the others are marginal downgrades IMO. Pav may have more upside, but I am not sure he will meet it.

Lindback and Bob the Goalie may surprise a little. Wouldn't be blown away by either guy out doing Pav.

Then again, I don't surprise easy and I could see Pav putting up another .914

Hopefully Pav breaks out this year.

He outperformed Niemi with the sad sack Pelicans, maybe he is turning the corner.

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12-11-2012, 12:12 AM
  #49
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Attachment 59757
Click image to make bigger

Didn't know where to put this but thought this was interesting.

This is a semi attempt in making "catch all" stat. I'm not usually a huge fan of it but I like this guys work (stats.hockeyanalysis.com, same place I get the CF% and GF%).

The size of the circle indicates the TOI.
___HARO+ is the authors attempt to calculate the teams offence when the player is on the ice (by weighted __ type opportunities)
___HARD+ is the authors attempt to calculate the teams defence when the player is on the ice (by weighted reduction __ type opportunities)
This particular one (or it's ___) uses fenwick/20mins-of-icetime (which includes goals, shots and missed shots; does not include blocked shots like corsi, so smaller sample size but bit better in correlation to winning since blocking shots takes talent and blocked shots may arise from poor chances)

He weights it to try to reduce effects of zone starts, teammates skill and competition skill. Personally I think the weighting is off... for example, I don't think Wellwood and Stapleton's sheltering , or the difficult task of GST (although I still think they didn't "win") is accounted for strongly enough.

Not perfect, but it's neat.
Food for thought.


Last edited by garret9: 01-21-2014 at 12:34 AM.
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12-13-2012, 04:31 PM
  #50
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Seeing as we lost a year of Poni and Olli, do we for see true north resigning them for another go?

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