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Adjusted Even Strength Production Leaders

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Old
11-04-2012, 11:40 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
ESG data is from official NHL stats.

ES assists are official from 1987-88. Before that time they are estimates, but I have replaced the estimates for most prominent players with unofficial boxscore data from the HSP. The estimates may add a little error to the results pre-88 but should not make much difference to the top end.

I'm planning to make a full post at some point with distribution stats of this type for all years and both F and D.
Does the more defensive role of Dmen overall since the mid 90s influence the data at all?

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11-05-2012, 04:28 AM
  #27
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Seeing Jagr so high on most lists only reminds me of how dominant the guy was.

Should the general opinion of the NHL following be that Jagr is a top-10 all-time player?

(IMO, easily, yes)

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11-05-2012, 04:45 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Corto View Post
Seeing Jagr so high on most lists only reminds me of how dominant the guy was.

Should the general opinion of the NHL following be that Jagr is a top-10 all-time player?

(IMO, easily, yes)
Yes. If the NHL called penalties more equitably like they did after the lockout, he would have basically been unstoppable or his team would have been on a perpetual power play.

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11-05-2012, 01:12 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
The percentages posted are for the average percentage of team even strength goals for which the Nth highest even strength scoring forward on the team received a point.

So in 1968, the average team had the top EV scorer post a point on 28.8% of even strength goals. This number rose by 1973, dropped and reached a low point in the 1980s, and then rose to a high point in the late 90s and 00s.
Given that this is ES production (so an increase in PPO should be irrelevant), don't you believe the disproportionate number of high scoring forwards (as reflected in the stats leaderboards) compared to lower scoring forwards which arrived from overseas would skew the comparative scoring between top line players and low line players? The amount due to such an increase in the comparative quality of top line forwards vs. low line forwards would not seem to require further adjustment for difficulty.

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11-05-2012, 01:44 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Given that this is ES production (so an increase in PPO should be irrelevant), don't you believe the disproportionate number of high scoring forwards (as reflected in the stats leaderboards) compared to lower scoring forwards which arrived from overseas would skew the comparative scoring between top line players and low line players? The amount due to such an increase in the comparative quality of top line forwards vs. low line forwards would not seem to require further adjustment for difficulty.
Moreover, the fact that many teams switched from the "two scoring, two checking" model prevalent to that point to "three scoring, one checking" as the talent was available for it and the Red Wings had shown it to be a successful model.

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11-23-2012, 06:43 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Adjusted to 6.00 ESG/game and 82 games, these are some of the best ES seasons for which data is available:
Wow, Henrik Sedin's 2010 season is really impressive.

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11-23-2012, 07:20 PM
  #32
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This is a list of most of the best adjusted ES seasons for which data is available. Adjusted to 82 games and 6.00 ESG/game, but uncertain if the ESG/game figures are 100% accurate:

PLAYER Year G A P
Gretzky 1985 58 99 157
Gretzky 1986 42 115 157
Gretzky 1982 70 81 151
Gretzky 1987 49 96 145
Gretzky 1984 59 85 144
Gretzky 1983 50 91 142
Jagr 1996 59 77 136
Jagr 1999 54 80 134
Gretzky 1991 42 89 130
Jagr 2001 59 65 124
Lemieux 1989 50 74 124
H.Sedin 2010 34 89 124
Yzerman 1989 55 68 123
Gretzky 1989 46 75 122
Ovechkin 2008 69 52 121
Forsberg 2003 34 85 119
Thornton 2006 29 87 116
Gretzky 1981 40 76 116
Lemieux 1993 56 59 115
Gretzky 1980 43 72 115
Jagr 2006 48 66 114
Gretzky 1988 33 82 114
LeClair 1997 56 58 114
Gretzky 1990 31 83 114
Lindros 1995 54 59 112
Malkin 2012 57 55 112
Lemieux 1997 45 66 111
Selanne 1998 68 43 111
Fedorov 1994 53 57 111
Jagr 1995 51 59 110
Sundin 1999 44 65 109
Ovechkin 2010 55 54 109
Hull 1991 72 37 109
Kurri 1985 58 51 109
Bure 2000 67 40 108
Crosby 2010 54 54 107
Lindros 1996 46 62 107
Stamkos 2012 72 36 107
Selanne 1997 55 52 107
Malkin 2009 29 78 107
Malkin 2008 48 58 106
Thornton 2003 36 70 106
Trottier 1978 37 69 106
Lindros 1999 47 59 106
LeClair 1999 44 62 106
Jagr 1998 46 59 106
Sakic 2001 51 54 105
Trottier 1979 37 67 105
Iginla 2008 56 48 105
Lemieux 1996 43 62 104
Yzerman 1993 46 59 104
Iginla 2002 56 46 102
Jagr 2000 48 52 100
Forsberg 1996 29 72 100
Selanne 1993 62 37 100
Gretzky 1998 28 71 99
LeClair 1998 58 41 99
Coffey 1986 33 66 99
Thornton 2004 32 64 97
Ovechkin 2009 55 41 96
Lemieux 1992 36 60 96
St. Louis 2007 38 58 95
D.Sedin 2010 31 64 95
Kurri 1986 50 45 95
Thornton 2008 29 66 95
Crosby 2009 40 55 95
Sundin 1997 42 52 95
Jagr 1997 48 47 95
Thornton 2007 19 75 94
Iginla 2007 39 55 94
Bure 2001 56 38 94
Oates 1993 24 70 94
Yzerman 1990 46 47 94
Jagr 1994 31 63 93
Fedorov 1996 36 57 93
Lemieux 1988 48 45 93
D.Sedin 2011 34 58 93
Bure 1998 53 40 92
Turgeon 1993 41 52 92
Crosby 2007 36 56 92
Oates 1991 27 66 92
Recchi 1994 39 53 92
Tkachuk 1997 58 34 92
Gretzky 1997 27 65 92
Sakic 1999 39 52 91
Robitaille 1993 44 47 91
Recchi 1993 41 50 91
Recchi 1991 35 56 91
Ovechkin 2011 37 54 91
Lindros 2002 38 53 91
Francis 1998 30 61 91
Francis 1995 20 71 90
LeClair 1995 49 42 90
Sakic 1995 34 56 90
Francis 1996 20 70 90
Robitaille 1989 44 46 90
Sakic 1991 42 48 90
St. Louis 2004 37 53 90
Kariya 1999 42 47 90
Trottier 1982 31 59 90

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11-24-2012, 03:52 PM
  #33
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- Surprised Bossy isn't in the top 100 (especially since Trottier is on the list three times) - maybe he relied more on the PP than I thought.

- Also surprising that there are only 18 seasons from the 1980s (10 of which are Gretzky), compared to 48 from the 1990s, 24 from the 2000s and 8 from the 2010s (in three seasons). There are also two seasons from seventies, both Trottier's, but I assume your data only goes back to 1978 or so. It seems weighted really heavily on the 1990s and (on a per-season basis) the 2010s?

- Total adjusted ES points from Gretzky in his best ten seasons: 1,379. Total adjusted ES points from everyone else in their ten best seasons: 1,236!


Last edited by Hockey Outsider: 11-24-2012 at 04:00 PM.
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Old
11-24-2012, 04:25 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Hockey Outsider View Post
- Surprised Bossy isn't in the top 100 (especially since Trottier is on the list three times) - maybe he relied more on the PP than I thought.

- Also surprising that there are only 18 seasons from the 1980s (10 of which are Gretzky), compared to 48 from the 1990s, 24 from the 2000s and 8 from the 2010s (in three seasons). There are also two seasons from seventies, both Trottier's, but I assume your data only goes back to 1978 or so. It seems weighted really heavily on the 1990s and (on a per-season basis) the 2010s?

- Total adjusted ES points from Gretzky in his best ten seasons: 1,379. Total adjusted ES points from everyone else in their ten best seasons: 1,236!
Because Bossy's career ended much earlier than Trottier's, I didn't have his full ES point data (only ESG). Assuming the same % of total for ES assists as ES goals, his '82 & '84 seasons would adjust to ~110 adj. points, with 4 other seasons in the mid-high 80s in adj. points.

The same issue with the 80s vs. later years. I know there is a more comprehensive ES point database, but it wasn't readily available at the time I calculated these numbers.

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Old
11-24-2012, 09:47 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
This is a list of most of the best adjusted ES seasons for which data is available. Adjusted to 82 games and 6.00 ESG/game, but uncertain if the ESG/game figures are 100% accurate:
I find this interesting when you pull out some numbers by year:

PLAYER Year G A P
Lemieux 1989 50 74 124
Yzerman 1989 55 68 123
Gretzky 1989 46 75 122
Robitaille 1989 44 46 90

PLAYER Year G A P
Lemieux 1993 56 59 115
Yzerman 1993 46 59 104
Selanne 1993 62 37 100
Oates 1993 24 70 94
Turgeon 1993 41 52 92
Robitaille 1993 44 47 91
Recchi 1993 41 50 91

PLAYER Year G A P
Gretzky 1990 31 83 114
Yzerman 1990 46 47 94

Yzerman second in 89, 90, and 93.

How far back do the numbers you used for this table go? I see Trottier, but I don't see Lafleur. But Lafleur is on your earlier lists. I also wonder what the numbers are for seasons such as Yzerman's 87-88. He had a total 50-52-102 in only 64 games; HR's complex method puts him at 42-43-85, compared to 54-74-128 for 88-89. Assuming a similar ES/PP/SH distribution between the two seasons, this would suggest Yzerman's numbers *should* come up around 82 points for 64 games using your method, which suggests 102.5 for a full 80 - again second place. But without the actual numbers in hand, I can't make the calculation.

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11-24-2012, 11:28 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
How far back do the numbers you used for this table go? I see Trottier, but I don't see Lafleur. But Lafleur is on your earlier lists. I also wonder what the numbers are for seasons such as Yzerman's 87-88. He had a total 50-52-102 in only 64 games; HR's complex method puts him at 42-43-85, compared to 54-74-128 for 88-89. Assuming a similar ES/PP/SH distribution between the two seasons, this would suggest Yzerman's numbers *should* come up around 82 points for 64 games using your method, which suggests 102.5 for a full 80 - again second place. But without the actual numbers in hand, I can't make the calculation.
Basically, players who played into the 90s have data on ESPN's site, and those that didn't don't. On that site, it's all or nothing: either there's full data for the player's career or none at all. I estimated data for Dionne, Lafleur, Bossy, etc. based on their ESG/total goal ratios (assuming same ratio held for assists). I thought those estimates would be more accurate over multiple seaons (although calculated separately for each season) than for single seasons, so I included them with asterisks.

Yzerman was much stronger at ES in '89 than in '88 (101/155 points at ES in '89 vs. 61/102 in '88).

More historical ES point data is available, but AFAIK it's not on a site readily accessible to the public. I think it's in a Yahoo user group and I'm not aware of any other sources.

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11-25-2012, 08:08 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by RDRR View Post
Wow, Henrik Sedin's 2010 season is really impressive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
This is a list of most of the best adjusted ES seasons for which data is available. Adjusted to 82 games and 6.00 ESG/game, but uncertain if the ESG/game figures are 100% accurate:

PLAYER Year G A P
Lemieux 1989 50 74 124
H.Sedin 2010 34 89 124
Kind of sick actually. Lemieux's best ES year is the exact same as H. Sedin's. This is very weird considering that the Sedins are considered PP players (at least in my perception).

Could you make an argument based on this that Jagr was actually a better hockey player than Mario or that in 15 years the greatest players of all time (right now IMO Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux) will not include Lemieux (just as Howe has fallen off a bit - again, my perception)?

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11-25-2012, 11:01 AM
  #38
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Could you make an argument based on this that Jagr was actually a better hockey player than Mario or that in 15 years the greatest players of all time (right now IMO Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux) will not include Lemieux (just as Howe has fallen off a bit - again, my perception)?
You could make an argument that Jagr was better at even strength than Mario (although maybe not better than a healthy Mario.) But Mario was much better on the power play and at killing penalties.

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11-25-2012, 12:02 PM
  #39
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Kind of sick actually. Lemieux's best ES year is the exact same as H. Sedin's. This is very weird considering that the Sedins are considered PP players (at least in my perception).
Well, that's one reason not to evaluate players based on a single season. Even for peak, I tend to look at ~3-5 seasons. Also, I don't think the Sedins are really PP players. They're actually more ES players, at least compared to other "superstar" forwards. The misconception may be due to their initially improving after the lockout, when PPs were up substantially the first couple years. They really became stars when their ES numbers jumped starting in '09.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
Could you make an argument based on this that Jagr was actually a better hockey player than Mario or that in 15 years the greatest players of all time (right now IMO Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux) will not include Lemieux (just as Howe has fallen off a bit - again, my perception)?
Yes, you can, but it's an uphill battle on HFB, esp. since Lemieux is rated based on peak/prime & per-game metrics, as well as the "what if" scenario. Where Lemieux is most vulnerable is his health, and the resultant lack of durability and longevity. For those who evaluate on mostly a career value metric, I think it's very possible that Jagr has the edge. At the least, I think it's much closer than people will acknowledge, but don't expect the majority of people to admit that.

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11-25-2012, 07:28 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Basically, players who played into the 90s have data on ESPN's site, and those that didn't don't. On that site, it's all or nothing: either there's full data for the player's career or none at all. I estimated data for Dionne, Lafleur, Bossy, etc. based on their ESG/total goal ratios (assuming same ratio held for assists). I thought those estimates would be more accurate over multiple seaons (although calculated separately for each season) than for single seasons, so I included them with asterisks.

Yzerman was much stronger at ES in '89 than in '88 (101/155 points at ES in '89 vs. 61/102 in '88).
In terms of percentage of points, that 101/155 would be about 66 of 102. That's not a huge difference as a ratio.

Seeing the numbers on ESPN's page, it's more surprising; in 77GP, Lemieux only had 74 ESP to 80 PPP+14 SHP. Yzerman had 61 ESP in 64 GP. So Yzerman is just shy of Lemieux's ESPPG number, but comes out ahead if he plays the full 80.

Also notable is Yzerman's 1993-94 season. His actual total PPG, projected to a full 80, works out to 119 points (third behind Gretzky's 130 and Fedorov's 120). His 84-game adjusted ES number, based on your adjustment calculation, would put him at ~101 (I reached this number by comparing with Fedorov's numbers; there is a slight margin for error).

I think this data solidly supports my longstanding argument that Peak Yzerman was the best player in the league in at least 1989; and a top-three forward for the stretch from 88-94. He was scoring on par with Gretzky and Lemieux in ES situations (he didn't have the significant support cast on the PP that they had) and was easily the best defensive player of the three.

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11-25-2012, 08:04 PM
  #41
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Just want to make it clear that the list of single seasons is not comprehensive. First, as previously mentioned, it depends on whether the data was available for the player. Second, I didn't include every player, but only player who had multiple strong ES seasons. For example, Corey Perry tied Daniel Sedin in 2011 in ES points, but he's not yet on the list.

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12-02-2012, 07:55 PM
  #42
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well obviously stats dont mean that much all the time if crosbys season is below henrik sedins lmfao
Don't get your panties in a knot, Sedin had one of the most impressive ES seasons in the past decade, with 83ESP, Crosby's never done that in his career, obviously he's going to rank higher then Crosby in an ESP list.

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12-02-2012, 10:13 PM
  #43
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When was the last even strength more dominant season than 2010 Crosby ?
This is adjusted ES PPG in half season or more, estimated using the following formula:

(Adj. ES PPG) * (Half season PPG) / (Full season PPG)

This should give you some idea, along with other data already presented ITT.

PLAYER YEAR Gm ESPPG
Jagr 2001 45 1.89
Jagr 1996 42 1.89
Forsberg 2003 45 1.85
Lindros 1999 41 1.83
LeClair 1997 46 1.77
LeClair 1999 42 1.74
Ovechkin 2008 41 1.74
Lemieux 1996 41 1.72
Lemieux 1997 41 1.72
Jagr 1999 52 1.70
Lindros 1997 43 1.70
Ovechkin 2010 52 1.69
Crosby 2011 41 1.67
SedinH 2010 41 1.67
Selanne 1998 46 1.65
Bure 2000 46 1.62
Fedorov 1994 42 1.62
Malkin 2012 41 1.60
Lemieux 2001 43 1.59
Malkin 2008 42 1.58
Thornton 2003 41 1.57
Thornton 2006 44 1.56
Sakic 2000 42 1.53
Lindros 1995 42 1.52
Alfredsson 2008 42 1.52
Lindros 1996 47 1.51
Crosby 2010 55 1.50
Selanne 1997 42 1.50
Jagr 1998 41 1.50
Malkin 2009 42 1.49
Jagr 2006 44 1.48
Bure 2001 41 1.47
Stamkos 2012 41 1.46
Gretzky 1998 41 1.45
Jagr 2000 41 1.43
Lindros 1994 51 1.43
Sakic 2001 62 1.41

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12-03-2012, 05:16 AM
  #44
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Yes. If the NHL called penalties more equitably like they did after the lockout, he would have basically been unstoppable or his team would have been on a perpetual power play.
I agree, Jagr is up there with lemieux, gretzky imo as far as offense is concerned. Maybe the bottom of that tier, but the guy is certainly under-appreciated on all-time lists. Certain players have an Aura or a mystique surrounding them that tends to catapult them ahead of Jags for some reason. He is higher on my list than Lafleur and many others.

Jagr was the most dominating offensive force since Lemieux by a fair margin.

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12-04-2012, 10:52 AM
  #45
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I argee. Love him or hate him, but Jagr was a ****ing beast and he managed to do that for such a long time. Jagr is a top 5 player all time for me. If not for the lockouts and his Russia stint, we might be talking about the 2nd leading all-time scorer of the NHL and with 800-850 goals. Which would mean he'd be on Gretzkys' heals as far as goals are concerned. Jagr has 665 goals right now, he missed a 1 1/2 seasons durinig his prime (and now is missing more games) plus missed 3 full seasons with 25-30 goal potential. So he misses +/- 150 goals, which would bring him to 815.

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12-04-2012, 12:07 PM
  #46
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- Also surprising that there are only 18 seasons from the 1980s (10 of which are Gretzky), compared to 48 from the 1990s, 24 from the 2000s and 8 from the 2010s (in three seasons). There are also two seasons from seventies, both Trottier's, but I assume your data only goes back to 1978 or so. It seems weighted really heavily on the 1990s and (on a per-season basis) the 2010s?
The reason for the difference between 90's and the rest of the decades must have something to do with procentage of ES minutes per game. Did the 90's have a lower amount of penalty minutes? If we count the even strength goals scored over a decade and divide it with power play goals, would the 90's have the lowest "power play factor"?

Also what would a ESG/ESTOI ranking look like?


EDIT: Also, who would have thought Selanne would be this high on the list in ESG average in three best seasons. I thought he was just a normal first line goal scorer.

PLAYER ESG
Gretzky 62
Selanne 62
Hull 61
Esposito 61
Ovechkin 60
Bure 59
Jagr 57
LeClair 54
Iginla 54
Lemieux 51
Stamkos 51
Kurri 51
Lafleur 51
Kovalchuk 50
Lindros 49
Yzerman 49
Tkachuk 49
Bossy 48
Robitaille 45
Malkin 45
Dionne 44
Sakic 44
Sundin 44
Crosby 43
Fedorov 43

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12-04-2012, 02:10 PM
  #47
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The reason for the difference between 90's and the rest of the decades must have something to do with procentage of ES minutes per game. Did the 90's have a lower amount of penalty minutes? If we count the even strength goals scored over a decade and divide it with power play goals, would the 90's have the lowest "power play factor"?

Also what would a ESG/ESTOI ranking look like?


EDIT: Also, who would have thought Selanne would be this high on the list in ESG average in three best seasons. I thought he was just a normal first line goal scorer.
From '80 to present, the highest and lowest PP opportunities per game:

Most
-------
2006: 5.85
1988: 5.46
1993: 5.27
1989: 5.04
1996: 5.04
1992: 5.03
2007: 4.85
1994: 4.85

Least
-------
2012: 3.30
1980: 3.50
2011: 3.55
2010: 3.71
1982: 4.00
1985: 4.01
2000: 4.04
1997: 4.10

Avg. '81 to '87: 4.18
Avg. '88 to '96: 4.91
Avg. '97 to '04: 4.32
Avg. '06 & '07: 5.35
Avg. '08 to '12: 3.80

Not sure why you think of Selanne as just a normal first line goal scorer in his peak/prime years. After all, he did lead the league in goals 3 times and has 5 top 3 finishes.

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12-04-2012, 03:47 PM
  #48
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Not sure why you think of Selanne as just a normal first line goal scorer in his peak/prime years. After all, he did lead the league in goals 3 times and has 5 top 3 finishes.
That was a brainfart on my part. Brutal choice of words. I ment "normal" Rocket Richard winner. I know he has been great but to look that good in that kind of company was a bit of a surprise for me even when that particular list only took best three seasons into consideration.

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12-05-2012, 12:21 AM
  #49
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That was a brainfart on my part. Brutal choice of words. I ment "normal" Rocket Richard winner. I know he has been great but to look that good in that kind of company was a bit of a surprise for me even when that particular list only took best three seasons into consideration.
I think the problems with injuries are making Selanne look more inconsistent than he actually was.

If you would leave out the injury years in the middle of Selanne's career (which is not unreasonable since he obviously had serious problems with his leg) he would end up with PPG roughly 1.2 and GPG roughly 0.56 over 1100 games. It would put him in the same territory as Sakic/Lafleur point wise and around top-10 GPG. This is cherry picking in a way that I don't like and this should not give any definite answers since every player has problems in their career. But outside of career threatening injuries Selanne has been consistently one of the top producers. The overall value of player like Selanne is another debate tough. But scoring wise Selanne has been pretty much one of the most elite players.

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