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San Francisco QB debate

View Poll Results: Who should be the starting QB for San Francisco?
Alex Smith 36 40.91%
Colin Kaepernick 52 59.09%
Voters: 88. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
12-05-2012, 08:23 AM
  #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad Tolliver View Post
It skews towards Kaepernick because he gives the 49ers a better chance to win.
I take it you don't really understand what that statistic means and what the problem is with you using it. Considering that takes into account every play of this season and how Kaepernick was used before he was the starter, it definitely is skewed because of the small sample size of plays he ran as a backup that were successful because nobody was prepared for it.

Smith is 19-5 during the two seasons under Harbaugh ignoring St. Louis since he didn't finish it. That's a hell of a lot of wins and a hell of a lot more of a sample size than anything you can put out there with Kaepernick. Anybody that really wants to pass off that Kaepernick has proven that he gives them a better chance to win statistically after three starts has their head in the clouds.

The 49ers don't need a QB that will make rookie mistakes like Kaepernick has done and is partially why they lost to St. Louis. That kind of stuff will only continue this year as teams start to figure him out.

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12-05-2012, 12:19 PM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
I take it you don't really understand what that statistic means and what the problem is with you using it. Considering that takes into account every play of this season and how Kaepernick was used before he was the starter, it definitely is skewed because of the small sample size of plays he ran as a backup that were successful because nobody was prepared for it.

Smith is 19-5 during the two seasons under Harbaugh ignoring St. Louis since he didn't finish it. That's a hell of a lot of wins and a hell of a lot more of a sample size than anything you can put out there with Kaepernick. Anybody that really wants to pass off that Kaepernick has proven that he gives them a better chance to win statistically after three starts has their head in the clouds.

The 49ers don't need a QB that will make rookie mistakes like Kaepernick has done and is partially why they lost to St. Louis. That kind of stuff will only continue this year as teams start to figure him out.
Kaepernick's game-by-game WPA before Smith's injury this season:

GB 0.02
DET 0.00
MIN 0.00
NYJ 0.06
BUF -0.08
NYG 0.04
SEA -0.02
ARZ 0.00

After Smith's injury:

STL 0.47
CHI 0.40
NO 0.30
STL 0.16

But but but but but but but it's skewed towards the games he barely played in!

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12-05-2012, 08:33 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad Tolliver View Post
Kaepernick's game-by-game WPA before Smith's injury this season:

GB 0.02
DET 0.00
MIN 0.00
NYJ 0.06
BUF -0.08
NYG 0.04
SEA -0.02
ARZ 0.00

After Smith's injury:

STL 0.47
CHI 0.40
NO 0.30
STL 0.16

But but but but but but but it's skewed towards the games he barely played in!
But but but but but but it's still a small sample size and your entire premise is based on three starts and assumptive thinking. If we're going to run this ridiculous train of thought, the fact is that he is already dwindling as a QB with a steady decline in WPA. Wonder what that could mean? Maybe teams are starting to figure him out and he's too inconsistent due to a lack of experience and maybe that will lead to more struggles as the season wears on and, if they're lucky to make the playoffs with this kid at QB, he will get snuffed against good teams.

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Old
12-09-2012, 09:32 PM
  #79
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Stop skewing the stats with your winning, Kaepernick.

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12-10-2012, 08:23 AM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad Tolliver View Post
Stop skewing the stats with your winning, Kaepernick.
That's really not the argument you want to go with if you're talking about Kaepernick and Smith. Kaepernick, again, didn't do much of anything in this game except for one play when the game was just about over.

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Old
12-10-2012, 08:38 AM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Maybe teams are starting to figure him out and he's too inconsistent
Inconsistent?

In his 4 starts his pct has been 70%, 64% 66% and 78%. He has been the picture of consistency, and I won't even mention the additional running threat.

Harbaugh did the gutsy and right thing.

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Old
12-11-2012, 05:55 AM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad Tolliver View Post
Stop skewing the stats with your winning, Kaepernick.
I wouldn't really plan the parade after beating Dolphins with a somewhat average performance...

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Old
12-11-2012, 06:52 AM
  #83
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Playing Kaepernick is a cool, fun game to play to keep the interest alive, and (at first) make teams guess, but if you want to win the super bowl, you gotta put Smith back in eventually. I don't know historical stats/occurrences, but I'm gonna say I don't think you can win it with a rookie QB. Especially when you might have to go up against a team like the Patriots, Broncos or Texans.

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12-11-2012, 06:58 AM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J StClair28 View Post
Playing Kaepernick is a cool, fun game to play to keep the interest alive, and (at first) make teams guess, but if you want to win the super bowl, you gotta put Smith back in eventually. I don't know historical stats/occurrences, but I'm gonna say I don't think you can win it with a rookie QB. Especially when you might have to go up against a team like the Patriots, Broncos or Texans.
Kaepernick isn't a rookie

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12-11-2012, 07:01 AM
  #85
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Kaepernick isn't a rookie
Not technically, no, but he only played three games, with a grand total of five pass attempts.

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12-11-2012, 08:06 AM
  #86
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I'll be very interested to see how Kaepernick handles the big game pressure next week in NE.

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12-11-2012, 08:21 AM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinTheBlackCircle View Post
Inconsistent?

In his 4 starts his pct has been 70%, 64% 66% and 78%. He has been the picture of consistency, and I won't even mention the additional running threat.

Harbaugh did the gutsy and right thing.
Are you watching the games or looking at a stat sheet? His inconsistency is in the mental part of the game, not the physical. He's made inexperienced/rookie decisions quite a few times and in key moments. He didn't do anything until the 50 yard run when the game was pretty much over. Saying he's the picture of consistency is pretty short-sighted. Harbaugh did not make the right choice and it's going to bite him in the ass.

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Old
12-11-2012, 08:59 AM
  #88
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I trust the kid and want him in, but next two games are a big test for him!

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Old
12-11-2012, 09:35 AM
  #89
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He needs to get better on 3rd downs, the 49ers had a terrible percentage on Sunday against the Dolphins. This may or may not be on him depending on if the plays are coming in on time, but they had to burn three(may have been four) timeouts on Sunday because the play clock was running out. He needs to be more aware of that so the team isn't burning timeouts.

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12-11-2012, 11:33 AM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Are you watching the games
Yes.

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12-11-2012, 11:36 AM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockeyfan02 View Post
He needs to get better on 3rd downs, the 49ers had a terrible percentage on Sunday against the Dolphins. .
Smith was at 36%
Kaepernick is at 37%

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12-11-2012, 12:30 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Tuggy View Post
I'll be very interested to see how Kaepernick handles the big game pressure next week in NE.
He's cool as a cucumber. I don't expect Kap to be the issue if they don't win.

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12-11-2012, 12:50 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by SpinTheBlackCircle View Post
Smith was at 36%
Kaepernick is at 37%
How does that refute my point? Regardless of who is at QB 36/37% isn't a good third down percentage. It's below average and the 49ers need to get better at it, especially Sunday night when controlling the clock and keeping the Patriots offense off the field will be key.

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12-11-2012, 03:45 PM
  #94
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They're both mediocre. Pick your poison.

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12-11-2012, 06:52 PM
  #95
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You obviously haven't watched Kaepernick. Typical Kershaw bait post.

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12-11-2012, 07:27 PM
  #96
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NE will be a big test for Kaepernick. Now, I don't think he will be entirely to blame if we lose, but they're a really good team and it will show us how he will do against a strong team now that teams are preparing for him better.

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12-11-2012, 08:35 PM
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Originally Posted by forsbergavs32 View Post
NE will be a big test for Kaepernick. Now, I don't think he will be entirely to blame if we lose, but they're a really good team and it will show us how he will do against a strong team now that teams are preparing for him better.
The offensive line is key. When Kaepernick has time to throw, he hits his target. These LB's and secondary can be thrown on if the OL gives him time.

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12-12-2012, 03:36 AM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Harbaugh did not make the right choice and it's going to bite him in the ass.
Not going to get into the QB debate (though honestly I prefer Smith), but what is your definition of "going to bite him"? Should probably clarify your guidelines if you haven't already. Otherwise, it'd be too easy for you to claim a victory if it's something like Super Bowl or bust.

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12-12-2012, 06:16 AM
  #99
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I haven't really seen much of Kaepernick but from the sounds of it we'll be facing an all pro this weekend.

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12-12-2012, 07:12 AM
  #100
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How does that refute my point? Regardless of who is at QB 36/37% isn't a good third down percentage. It's below average and the 49ers need to get better at it, especially Sunday night when controlling the clock and keeping the Patriots offense off the field will be key.
While I do agree that the 49ers need to be better on 3rd Down (IMO, it is a big reason they lost to the Giants LY), I'm not sure how much that is on the QB (whomever it is) and more on the coaches play calling. I think the coaches are so confident in the defense, they have drilled it into the QB's head that it is better to punt it away than to take any risk.

Agree or disagree with the strategy, but I think it's a big reason why their % is so low (and I'm willing to bet they have one of, if not the lowest # of turnovers on 3rd down).

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