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C/RW Burmistrov; 1st Round, 2010 (I promise this is the last thread)

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Old
12-03-2012, 03:30 PM
  #26
sipowicz
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What a lot of guys here fail to remember is how bad Burmi tailed off in the later half of the season, in fact in the final 21 games Burmi had 1 goal with only 4 assists despite having pretty good minutes.

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12-03-2012, 03:46 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sipowicz View Post
What a lot of guys here fail to remember is how bad Burmi tailed off in the later half of the season, in fact in the final 21 games Burmi had 1 goal with only 4 assists despite having pretty good minutes.
...and...

Did he become a bad hockey player with 21 games left?

Was warn down with his 175 lb frame? Was he unlucky?

Not sure what that does to discredit it his ability.

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Old
12-04-2012, 09:49 PM
  #28
garret9
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Exam break so I'm back for a short while.

One thing I'm really into statistically is with/without. It's neat to see how a player can affect the game. Some of you may remember I used with/without to show how Bogosian's and Byfuglien's negative +/- almost exclusively came from their TOI with Stuart (and Oduya as well for Bogosian).

Now of course, as always, statistics aren't definitive or perfect. With these, a lot of context is missing, like: who else was on the ice when they were together/apart, what was the competition level/usage the players were used when together/apart, etc. Allso, sample levels can be small for some players who are rarely on the ice together (extreme example: Kane and Ladd, 5mins). So take with grain of salt.

For people who want to know what stat I'm using CF% and GF% are similar to corsi and +/- but instead of taking the good - the bad, it takes the good and divides by the total. So for example GF%= (goals for when on ice)/(total goals when on ice). CF% is the same but uses corsi (which is shots, goals, blocked shots, and posts). Corsi is much better for this type of comparison as goal ratios are extremely small samples.

2011-2012 With or Without Corsi
LinemateTOI(with)Teammate TOI(without)Burmi TOI(without)CF%(with)Teammate CF%(without)Burmi CF%(without)
Antropov 204:18 606:00 757:27 0.468 0.510 0.544
Kane 502:46 510:35 427:53 0.539 0.496 0.506
Ladd 077:32 901:17 901:17 0.483 0.553 0.537
Little 075:56 901:11 901:11 0.519 0.539 0.531
Wellwood 297:06 632:31 653:59 0.554 0.549 0.513
Wheeler 155:48 1063:05 816:48 0.564 0.530 0.527

2011-2012 With or Without Goals
LinemateTOI(with)Teammate TOI(without)Burmi TOI(without)GF%(with)Teammate GF%(without)Burmi GF%(without)
Antropov 204:18 606:00 757:27 0.421 0.531 0.583
Kane 502:46 510:35 427:53 0.556 0.531 0.476
Ladd 077:32 901:17 901:17 0.333 0.470 0.545
Little 075:56 901:11 901:11 0.600 0.452 0.531
Wellwood 297:06 632:31 653:59 0.500 0.569 0.556
Wheeler 155:48 1063:05 816:48 0.636 0.491 0.526


Last edited by garret9: 12-04-2012 at 10:01 PM.
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Old
12-05-2012, 09:19 AM
  #29
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Excellent work as usual Garret.

Question: What's a good number for CF%?

If I'm reading your first chart correctly, 4 out of the 6 players had greater than .5 CF% with Burmi, but 3 of them had a higher CF% without Burmi than with him (Antro, Ladd, Little). And the last column shows Burmi always with a CF% higher than .5.

So I guess my question is, how is this interpreted?

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12-05-2012, 09:37 AM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
Excellent work as usual Garret.

Question: What's a good number for CF%?

If I'm reading your first chart correctly, 4 out of the 6 players had greater than .5 CF% with Burmi, but 3 of them had a higher CF% without Burmi than with him (Antro, Ladd, Little). And the last column shows Burmi always with a CF% higher than .5.

So I guess my question is, how is this interpreted?
You are reading it right.

You always want a CF% above .500 (higher is better), this means you are out chancing your opponent and controlling puck possession. Same goes for GF%.

Anything lower than .500 means you are getting outshot / chanced. You don't want to see this unless the player is buried with tough minutes and / or zone starts.


I like with and without analysis, simply because it helps illustrate which line combos worked and which didn't along with possibly assessing blame.


Last edited by truck: 12-05-2012 at 09:45 AM.
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Old
12-05-2012, 12:42 PM
  #31
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@huffer:
Truck is righ, that >0.500 is optimal. But as I stated earlier what's missing is competition levels and zone starts.
For example: Enstrom-Bogosian had similar GF% and slightly better CF% than Hainsey-Bogosian, but remember that when Bogo was with Hainsey they were getting tougher starts with more Dzone assignments. So it can depend.

My interpetation of this could be wrong, but I'd say (with semi guessing who was the 3rd when together):
*when Antro was with Kane/Welly-Burmi, they didn't seem to beat their opposition
*Noel seems to know what he's doing cos he seemed to end with the best lines/pairs given what they had available for top minutes (LLWr, KBWd, EBu, HBo)
*Wheeler did well with Ladd-Little and Kane-Burmi
*Burmi survived with LL but still does better in a sheltered role


Last edited by garret9: 12-05-2012 at 12:54 PM.
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12-05-2012, 01:24 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
@huffer:
Truck is righ, that >0.500 is optimal. But as I stated earlier what's missing is competition levels and zone starts.
For example: Enstrom-Bogosian had similar GF% and slightly better CF% than Hainsey-Bogosian, but remember that when Bogo was with Hainsey they were getting tougher starts with more Dzone assignments. So it can depend.

My interpetation of this could be wrong, but I'd say (with semi guessing who was the 3rd when together):
*when Antro was with Kane/Welly-Burmi, they didn't seem to beat their opposition
*Noel seems to know what he's doing cos he seemed to end with the best lines/pairs given what they had available for top minutes (LLWr, KBWd, EBu, HBo)
*Wheeler did well with Ladd-Little and Kane-Burmi
*Burmi survived with LL but still does better in a sheltered role
Kane and Wheeler went nuts when they were on the ice together.

Makes me wonder how much Kane dragged up Burmi's (with Wheeler) numbers.

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12-05-2012, 02:19 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Kane and Wheeler went nuts when they were on the ice together.

Makes me wonder how much Kane dragged up Burmi's (with Wheeler) numbers.
There's def some pulling, for sure. There's no doubt in my mind that Kane and Wheeler are stronger players than Burmistrov. I don't think there are any on this site that would disagree. It doesn't seem that much though, since Wheeler-Kane CF% < Kane without Wheeler and Wheeler-Kane CF% < Burmi-Kane...
But, I think the real positive to look here is that Burmistrov didn't pull them down a la Stuart pulling down Byfuglien and Bogosian.
Burmistrov isn't a top 6 guy, yet. But, looking at this at the age of 20... he was definitely a competent NHLer and that bodes well for being some top6 ceiling.

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Old
12-05-2012, 03:07 PM
  #34
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Thanks Truck and Garret. I kind of figured that over .5 was "good" just due to the nature of the calculation. (I.E that over .5 is "positive").

One thing I was wondering though, is there a way to compare that to the other players in the league? I.E. what are the ranges for all-star / very good / average / below average players?

I guess what I am asking is, I can see that Burmi is a net positive for this stat. If he had say a .52 overall for this stat, can you compare that to anything league wide (I.E elite players like Crosby are .75, really good players are around a .6, etc.)

Or is that not possible with this kind of stat?

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12-05-2012, 03:15 PM
  #35
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They were just reporting on Hustler's show (pre H & L) that Burmi returned from St John's to see doctor's relating to an "upper body injury".

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12-05-2012, 03:23 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
Thanks Truck and Garret. I kind of figured that over .5 was "good" just due to the nature of the calculation. (I.E that over .5 is "positive").

One thing I was wondering though, is there a way to compare that to the other players in the league? I.E. what are the ranges for all-star / very good / average / below average players?

I guess what I am asking is, I can see that Burmi is a net positive for this stat. If he had say a .52 overall for this stat, can you compare that to anything league wide (I.E elite players like Crosby are .75, really good players are around a .6, etc.)

Or is that not possible with this kind of stat?
It is possible, I don't know that anyone tracks it that way.

Corsi is generally tracked in a per 60 value. It is represented differently, but tells us the same thing. Top performers can be found here: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...34+45+46+63+67

Looking at the top performers, it seems the best of the best had ratio numbers in and around .625

Pretty impressive stuff. If you wanna look at any specific players, the numbers are here:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/players.php Click on the player name, then select 2011-12 next to 5v5 corsi.



It isn't really surprising, but pretty much all of the top performers played on LA, Bos, Van and Pit. Deep teams means there are less drags.

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