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Alex Galchenyuk Thread 6.0 - "Gally Got Backhand" Edition

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Old
12-05-2012, 10:52 AM
  #501
Roulin
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Originally Posted by FrankMTL View Post
Posted this in the Galchenyuk thread on the prospects board...

Here are the top 10 scorers of the OHL and the percentage of their teams goals that they're been directly implicated in (subtracted games missed)

Ryan Strome: 52.6%
Seth Griffith: 42.4%
Alex Galchenyuk: 48%
Brett Ritchie: 42%
Boone Jenner: 46%
Vincent Trocheck: 42%
Mark Scheifele: 40.3%
Daniel Catenacci: 42.2%
Charles Sarault: 40.4%
Max Domi: 34.7% (draft eligible 2013)


Connor McDavid: 41.4% (draft eligible 2015)

As we can see by these stats, there's a pretty clear top 3. Strome has just been on fire the last month or so. Galchenyuk has steadily been getting better and is the only 18 year old over 45%. Jenner is a pleasant surprise for me. Even before calculating these numbers, I was a big fan, but he's got a lot of offensive potential as well. A real complete player who is vital to his teams success. Obviously these numbers don't tell the whole story, but they're interesting anyways.

Connor McDavid is already involved in over 41% of his teams offence..how good will he be in 2015 when he'll draft eligible...scary.
Crazy numbers for those big 3. Galchenyuk beats out a lot of top 19 year olds on that list.

I'd add Monahan, who has missed some games. He has 1.5pts/g, which pro-rates to 45% of his team's offence.

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12-05-2012, 12:24 PM
  #502
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Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
Crazy numbers for those big 3. Galchenyuk beats out a lot of top 19 year olds on that list.

I'd add Monahan, who has missed some games. He has 1.5pts/g, which pro-rates to 45% of his team's offence.
Ya I figured as much, but since he wasn't in the top 10 scorers anymore, I omitted him. I calculated him to be directly involved in 41.3% of his teams goals in the 24 games he played so far this year.

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12-05-2012, 01:24 PM
  #503
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A shortened seasons will be so good for the habs... No matter how hard they will try, they will most likely suck. They will have a nice draft pick and can draft another high end offensive talent and start to rise like the hawks did with Toews and Kane
I know everyone seems to think that, and its possible, but a shorter season is a shorter sample size, meaning its far harder to predict.

For example take only the first half of last season and the Leafs might have had home ice in the playoffs. Teams can have prolonged winning streaks and the Habs, with a goalie like Price and a decent first line can certainly pull one and either surprisingly make the playoffs or just out of it. We have a young team and consistency is the main issue which is made more negligible in a shortened season.

The opposite is also true of course, a losing streak could sink us but Habs would be one of many bubble teams.

Lottery or shortened season, I don't think it makes a lot of difference for our lottery chances.

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12-05-2012, 01:40 PM
  #504
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Originally Posted by FlyingKostitsyn View Post
I know everyone seems to think that, and its possible, but a shorter season is a shorter sample size, meaning its far harder to predict.

For example take only the first half of last season and the Leafs might have had home ice in the playoffs. Teams can have prolonged winning streaks and the Habs, with a goalie like Price and a decent first line can certainly pull one and either surprisingly make the playoffs or just out of it. We have a young team and consistency is the main issue which is made more negligible in a shortened season.

The opposite is also true of course, a losing streak could sink us but Habs would be one of many bubble teams.

Lottery or shortened season, I don't think it makes a lot of difference for our lottery chances.
Toronto will probably make the playoffs though because they are a half-season team, which bodes well for us.

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Old
12-05-2012, 04:10 PM
  #505
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Originally Posted by FlyingKostitsyn View Post
I know everyone seems to think that, and its possible, but a shorter season is a shorter sample size, meaning its far harder to predict.
The difference between 50 and 80 games is not that large.

Keep in mind that statistical fluctuations go as the square root of the number of games, so really it's only a 20% noise increase in spite of being a 37% decrease in the number of games.

It can mean the difference between 9th and 7th place, but most likely not the difference between 14th and 7th.

You list Toronto. Toronto was the biggest outlier out of 30 teams. Only one team out of 30 can pull that off.

********************************

Anyway, even without the draft pick, we benefit from a short season because:

- it burns 1 year off Gomez' contract, as well as Bourque's
- Gives is an opportunity to trade players for picks at the deadline in what will be one of the deepest drafts in NHL history. I was arguing this in the surgical tanking thread and people said "they say that about every draft !!!", but six months later 2013 is still considered a deep draft.
- Allows brief call-ups to our prospects in Hamilton to give them a taste of the big leagues. Tinordi, for example, is not ready for the NHL, but I think 2 games on the 3rd pairing might be good for him. Also, a 9-game callup for Galchenyuk.
- Facilitates decision making on the Plekanec-Eller-Desharnais issue. We know Therrien was considering experimentation to find out more.

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Old
12-05-2012, 04:21 PM
  #506
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post

Anyway, even without the draft pick, we benefit from a short season because:

- it burns 1 year off Gomez' contract, as well as Bourque's
The year is being burned regardless.

Hopefully there's an amnesty clause without any dead cap hit repercussions and we can finally move on from the epic disaster that has been the Gomez era.

Quote:
Also, a 9-game callup for Galchenyuk.
Only way that happens is if his season in Sarnia ends before ours or if we keep him at the start of the season.

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12-05-2012, 04:23 PM
  #507
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The year is being burned regardless.
Really?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Only way that happens is if his season in Sarnia ends before ours or if we keep him at the start of the season.
Why? I thought they could call him up whenever they want?

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12-05-2012, 04:25 PM
  #508
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Really?
Don't remember 2004-05?

If you had 1 year left on your deal for that season, your contract was expired once the NHL came back in 2005.

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Why? I thought they could call him up whenever they want?
Only in an 'emergency' injury situation (unless they change the rules in the new CBA).

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12-05-2012, 06:00 PM
  #509
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Don't remember 2004-05?

If you had 1 year left on your deal for that season, your contract was expired once the NHL came back in 2005.
See: Vincent Damphousse on the Colorado Avalanche.

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12-05-2012, 09:41 PM
  #510
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Don't remember 2004-05?

If you had 1 year left on your deal for that season, your contract was expired once the NHL came back in 2005.



Only in an 'emergency' injury situation (unless they change the rules in the new CBA).
Isn't Gally the only player they can call-up from the CHL in the event of a training camp?

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12-05-2012, 09:49 PM
  #511
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Isn't Gally the only player they can call-up from the CHL in the event of a training camp?
Yes.

But DA was clearly hoping it could happen during the season.

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Old
12-05-2012, 09:54 PM
  #512
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The difference between 50 and 80 games is not that large.
Messed up math edit. n/m

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Old
12-05-2012, 11:29 PM
  #513
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Lockout is far from over.

One thing I am soooo not looking forward to is the should Galchenyuk be on the roster or not debate if it does get settled.
That's going to be a fierce debate for sure...

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Old
12-06-2012, 12:13 AM
  #514
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94 is likely the 7th overall best forward in the organization right now IMO and there is a hole at LW he could potentially fill. Its going to be an interesting situation to be sure, the lockout might have done him a huge favour in terms of making the lineup.

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12-06-2012, 05:55 AM
  #515
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Let's just wait see how training camp goes first lol with our luck Markov and Gally will injure their knees on opening faceoff

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12-06-2012, 06:23 AM
  #516
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Let's just wait see how training camp goes first lol with our luck Markov and Gally will injure their knees on opening faceoff
Dear God I hope you knocked on wood!

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12-06-2012, 07:20 AM
  #517
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I see zero incentive for the Habs to have Galchenyuk play with the big club in a shortened season. Let him continue to dominate the OHL and see how he looks in next season's training camp. There is no rush to bring him into a team that is likely to be a bad one.

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12-06-2012, 07:47 AM
  #518
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I see zero incentive for the Habs to have Galchenyuk play with the big club in a shortened season. Let him continue to dominate the OHL and see how he looks in next season's training camp. There is no rush to bring him into a team that is likely to be a bad one.
Especially after missing all of last year, best thing he can do is play WJHC and maybe get traded to a contender in the OHL.

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12-06-2012, 08:16 AM
  #519
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Originally Posted by Tuggy View Post
I see zero incentive for the Habs to have Galchenyuk play with the big club in a shortened season. Let him continue to dominate the OHL and see how he looks in next season's training camp. There is no rush to bring him into a team that is likely to be a bad one.
We have an all new front office and coaching staff. You don't think they will want to ice the best lineup possible to make a favorable first impression?

They won't do something to screw up Galchenyuk's development. But at this point how can any of us be sure that whats best for him is to stay in the OHL (a league he is dominating) rather than play on the 2nd or 3rd line in Montreal?

I say we give him his 9 games and re-evaluate at that point. If he doesn't look out of place and is among our top 9 forwards then i'm all for keeping him in Montreal.

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12-06-2012, 08:17 AM
  #520
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Especially after missing all of last year, best thing he can do is play WJHC and maybe get traded to a contender in the OHL.
But why are you so sure that is what's best for his development?

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12-06-2012, 08:57 AM
  #521
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I really don't understand this urge to push Galchenyuk into the line-up. People see him put up multiple points against terrible clubs like Sault Ste. Marie and Saginaw, and immediately think he's ready to dominate the NHL. Relax guys, let him dominate the OHL for the season, let him have a strong showing at the World Juniors, and also let him have better showings against stronger teams like Barrie, London and Oshawa. When he begins to dominate those games and outplays the likes of the Scheifeles, the Jenners, and the Griffiths, I will be more comfortable in saying it's time to take the next step.

Even then, I'd love to see him dominate the AHL a bit before making the NHL. If he goes there next year, and Gallagher is still sticking around, can you imagine the power of that line?

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12-06-2012, 09:17 AM
  #522
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I see no reason at all to call him up if there's a season. If Sarnia's season is over, maybe he can be called up to practice with the team if the Canadiens are in the playoffs, but that's about it.

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12-06-2012, 09:24 AM
  #523
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I see no reason at all to call him up if there's a season. If Sarnia's season is over, maybe he can be called up to practice with the team if the Canadiens are in the playoffs, but that's about it.
No playoffs this year please. Just a high draft pick.

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12-06-2012, 09:30 AM
  #524
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We have an all new front office and coaching staff. You don't think they will want to ice the best lineup possible to make a favorable first impression?

They won't do something to screw up Galchenyuk's development. But at this point how can any of us be sure that whats best for him is to stay in the OHL (a league he is dominating) rather than play on the 2nd or 3rd line in Montreal?

I say we give him his 9 games and re-evaluate at that point. If he doesn't look out of place and is among our top 9 forwards then i'm all for keeping him in Montreal.
Even if he plays well enough to warrant consideration, do you really want to use one of Gally's ELC years on a half season at 18 years old? Wouldn't you rather use the cheap years on full seasons at 19-21 or 20-22? (assuming the new CBA has a somewhat similar ELC-RFA-UFA structure to the previous one)

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12-06-2012, 09:49 AM
  #525
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No playoffs this year please. Just a high draft pick.
I agree, this is the best time to tank since the 2013 draft is really deep and since its a shortened season the Habs losing won't hurt as much.

I want either MacKinnon, Jones, Barkov or Drouin but I'd be happiest with Barkov

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