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Lockout Discussion Thread 3.0

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Old
12-05-2012, 03:49 PM
  #651
DAChampion
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The rising or falling value of a business doesn't necessarily mean it is profitable Shares of Apple have fallen 22% from their peak but they are still profitable. You, me or Forbes can put any price we want on a franchise but until it sells, we are only speculating what is value is.

We also don't know if Dallas would become unprofitable if four economically weak teams were removed. There are too many factors to consider.

And both sides must shudder at the idea of contraction. Losing jobs for 100 NHL players would be a black mark on Fehr's resume as well as Bettman's.
The rising or falling of value makes it profitable for the owner when he sells. Most billionaires will be perfectly happy to spend 200 million on a team, even if it only makes 3 million a year (low profit margin), if they can sell it for 300 million a few years down the line.

If you're an Apple shareholder, you care foremost about the value of the stock, not short-term profit values. You only care about the latter if they effect the former, or if you can extract some dividends, but even that is a secondary concern.

I strongly suspect Dallas would become unprofitable if 4 teams were contracted. I suspect this because the average revenue per team would go up, therefore costs would go up, therefore Dallas as a borderline team might become unprofitable.

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12-05-2012, 03:55 PM
  #652
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Revenues went up by much more than that. If the economy is good shouldn't they all be getting appropriate raises anyway?

Edit: It's infuriating to think that there are people who really feel this way. I have no idea how to approach this.
Why? Who cares. I know I don't feel same way as you do but I certaintly don't care that you have a difference of opinion either. It's not like we're talking about basic human survival rights. We're talking about businessmen trying to make a deal that doesn't even change the financial landscape of the consumer. They both want ticket prices to increase anyway because it gives players and owners more money. So really, I don't take any of it to heart, neither should you.

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12-05-2012, 04:38 PM
  #653
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Seriously, fingers crossed here, but the news is nothing but positive on the players side....looks like hockey will be played for 2013 ( 60+ game schedule )

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12-05-2012, 05:20 PM
  #654
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Is this guy blowing smoke ?

Cause I don't know if he's credible but **** it I'm buying whatever he's sellin

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12-05-2012, 05:25 PM
  #655
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Seriously, fingers crossed here, but the news is nothing but positive on the players side....looks like hockey will be played for 2013 ( 60+ game schedule )
FWIW, I believe you and your previous comment.

I was wondering for a long time how they'd turn this into a fan friendly affair of how 'we're all a big family and hold no resent and do it for the fans' crap.

When you said they are really close and doing this for PR, i believe you.

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12-05-2012, 05:41 PM
  #656
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I want to see Bettman and Fehr hug.

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12-05-2012, 06:03 PM
  #657
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I want to see Bettman and Fehr hug.
id rather see a hand grenade duel

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12-05-2012, 07:04 PM
  #658
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Ca sent la coupe.

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12-05-2012, 08:10 PM
  #659
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Hahaha

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Old
12-05-2012, 08:12 PM
  #660
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We are all hoping that overlords closes this thread on the basis that there is no longer a lockout to discuss.

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12-05-2012, 08:54 PM
  #661
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The rising or falling of value makes it profitable for the owner when he sells. Most billionaires will be perfectly happy to spend 200 million on a team, even if it only makes 3 million a year (low profit margin), if they can sell it for 300 million a few years down the line.

If you're an Apple shareholder, you care foremost about the value of the stock, not short-term profit values. You only care about the latter if they effect the former, or if you can extract some dividends, but even that is a secondary concern.
As far as NHL teams go, there are operational profits and the "potential" capital gain on a sale in the future. You have conveniently muddied the waters and mingled the two together. Eventually, though, an enterprise does have to have operational profits if it hopes to continue to grow in value. Otherwise you are operating on the greater fool theory and that doesn't last until infinity. Ask the speculators who bought US real estate in 2006 and 2007.

As for Apple, you have no idea what the shareholders care about first and foremost. You don't know if they have a long term time horizon or a short term time horizon, you don't know if they bought it for the dividend or for growth. You can guess but you don't know... it seems a bit presumptuous to me.

And by the way, the majority of Apple shareholders aren't billionaires.

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12-05-2012, 09:12 PM
  #662
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I also know somebody who was involved in the first successful genetic sequencing efforts. Great resource, a brilliant man with so much energy, but he does discuss at great lengths some of the internal arguments that experts have on even fundamental issues. As such, an expert opinion on these issues isn't equivalent to a fact since, among other reasons, you can frequently find another expert with the opposite opinion. For example, he likes to brag that when he was at Stanford aroound the 1980s he had long-running arguments with the mainstream professors, many of whom actually thought that junk DNA was junk (hence the name which was once thought to be a sensible label but is now recognized as a misnomer).

I don't just ask him for answers, I ask him for explanations when I talk to him. He's very thorough. I guess we can blame the media here: all they quoted from that sports economics professor were his credentials and his conclusions. Maybe he has some great, well thought out reasons for his conclusions, but they're not provided in the article. They don't explain his reasoning or uncertainty level at all, which is why I said it's not worth anything.
Sure it's worth something. It's an educated opinion.

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Old
12-05-2012, 09:13 PM
  #663
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Old
12-05-2012, 09:17 PM
  #664
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Originally Posted by HCH View Post
As far as NHL teams go, there are operational profits and the "potential" capital gain on a sale in the future. You have conveniently muddied the waters and mingled the two together. Eventually, though, an enterprise does have to have operational profits if it hopes to continue to grow in value. Otherwise you are operating on the greater fool theory and that doesn't last until infinity. Ask the speculators who bought US real estate in 2006 and 2007.

As for Apple, you have no idea what the shareholders care about first and foremost. You don't know if they have a long term time horizon or a short term time horizon, you don't know if they bought it for the dividend or for growth. You can guess but you don't know... it seems a bit presumptuous to me.

And by the way, the majority of Apple shareholders aren't billionaires.
I'm not muddying the waters, it's well-known that people care about the value of their investments and not just the annual return from dividends/profits. For example, I own some mutual funds. When they send quarterly reports they state the total change in valuation of my investments -- not the aggregated weighted profit margin of each stock/bond/etc. This is how all investment funds report: as a return on investment.

That's why Forbes magazine includes percent change in valuation among the 4 or 5 columns it reports for each team: because it's clearly one of the most important attributes.

As an example, Molson and co recently paid ~550 million for the Habs+Bell Center, who report a total profit of 50 million a year total (I think?), I think. Once you factor in taxes, interest on borrowing costs necessary to finance the purchase, and the fact the money could have been invested elsewhere, this looks like a losing investment. Is it? No, it's not. You also need to factor in that the investment itself has resale value in the future.

Teams are not just profit streams. They are hard assets as well. Owners who invest in the NHL pick up both a hard asset and, 17 times out of 30, a profit stream.

Finally, WhiskeySeven has done an good job of explaining how owning a team and an arena can be a sound investment even if the operating income is flat or slightly negative. There is no need for me to reiterate.

********

No where did I state or imply that Apple shareholders are billionaires, I'm not sure how you got that from my post.

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Old
12-05-2012, 09:37 PM
  #665
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HCH View Post
As far as NHL teams go, there are operational profits and the "potential" capital gain on a sale in the future. You have conveniently muddied the waters and mingled the two together. Eventually, though, an enterprise does have to have operational profits if it hopes to continue to grow in value. Otherwise you are operating on the greater fool theory and that doesn't last until infinity. Ask the speculators who bought US real estate in 2006 and 2007.

As for Apple, you have no idea what the shareholders care about first and foremost. You don't know if they have a long term time horizon or a short term time horizon, you don't know if they bought it for the dividend or for growth. You can guess but you don't know... it seems a bit presumptuous to me.

And by the way, the majority of Apple shareholders aren't billionaires.
If you are buying a $540 stock odds are good you don't intend on selling it when it jumps $5.

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Old
12-05-2012, 10:12 PM
  #666
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What are the chances of PK getting signed right when the NHL announces that the lockout is done? (By this, I mean basically that contract talks have resumed throughout the lockout, they found a common ground, have the paperwork signed and are just waiting for the offices to open back)

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12-05-2012, 10:22 PM
  #667
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Steve Fehr bringing pizza out to the media. Good moods mean progress. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a dela in place tonight.

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12-05-2012, 10:29 PM
  #668
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What are the chances of PK getting signed right when the NHL announces that the lockout is done? (By this, I mean basically that contract talks have resumed throughout the lockout, they found a common ground, have the paperwork signed and are just waiting for the offices to open back)
0% it happens as soon as the lockout ends.

Team officials can't talk with players during a lockout.

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12-05-2012, 10:31 PM
  #669
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Steve Fehr bringing pizza out to the media. Good moods mean progress. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a dela in place tonight.
Well, if the PA wants the reporters to stick around, it's gotta mean something.

At the very least they're in for the long haul.

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Old
12-05-2012, 10:37 PM
  #670
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0% it happens as soon as the lockout ends.

Team officials can't talk with players during a lockout.
Isn't the agent key in all of this anyways? I mean not necessarily right after the lockout ends, but in the same week, as per example. For all we know, Bergevin passes the word to PK's agent, who basically does all the work until they find the proper offer.

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Old
12-05-2012, 10:41 PM
  #671
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Isn't the agent key in all of this anyways? I mean not necessarily right after the lockout ends, but in the same week, as per example. For all we know, Bergevin passes the word to PK's agent, who basically does all the work until they find the proper offer.
I would suspect the NHL could fine Bergevin heavily if they found out he had contract talks with the agent of a locked out player for a NHL contract when the CBA isn't signed. It's pretty much a no-no. Bergevin himself has said as much when he's talked to the media since the lockout began.

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Old
12-05-2012, 10:53 PM
  #672
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Nevermind, just realized how stupid of a question that was . They don't even know the contract restrictions/salary cap on the new CBA, can't make up contracts with unknown restrictions lol

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12-05-2012, 11:49 PM
  #673
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
0% it happens as soon as the lockout ends.

Team officials can't talk with players during a lockout.
And teams aren't allowed to talk to UFA's (from other teams) until the official free agency starts, and yet...

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Old
12-06-2012, 06:39 AM
  #674
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Why? Who cares. I know I don't feel same way as you do but I certaintly don't care that you have a difference of opinion either. It's not like we're talking about basic human survival rights. We're talking about businessmen trying to make a deal that doesn't even change the financial landscape of the consumer. They both want ticket prices to increase anyway because it gives players and owners more money. So really, I don't take any of it to heart, neither should you.
It's the principle of the matter. I'm against having employees work till the cartilage in their hands and knees is withered down to the bone just so the CEO can get a nice little bonus. It's not right.

It's not right for ordinary people like the ones who post in this thread to keep defending these mega-rich owners. They are not the product, they are not the talent, they are not the artists, the innovators, the game-changers. They are just super-rich white guys who dropped a ton of their money into a project that will give them a ton of leverage and collateral and a ton of more money.

Revenues went up by a lot (>+100%) since the 05 lockout, salaries were tied to HRR at 57% so naturally salaries went up as well. But now, for whatever reason, people are saying that the owners are skimming too little off a do-nothing investment? Bull.

It's like that Steinbeck quote "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat, but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires."

Stop defending these plutocrats, they're the ones who locked out the players, raised ticket prices and keep stealing your money.

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Old
12-06-2012, 08:56 AM
  #675
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Really? My uncle is one of the leading genetics professors in the US.

If I have a question regarding the Human Genome Project, trust me, he's a good resource.
You are talking about a pseudo professor. Not a teaching professor. Paid by corporations to do research. Fine, I'm sure he's an expert.

I'm not talking about applied science and engineering. These are borderline academic positions and everyone knows it.

I'm talking about liberal arts, mathematics, philosophy and pure science. Not corporate paid applied science.

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