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Jets - Oilers

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Old
12-08-2012, 04:42 PM
  #26
SephF
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I'd make this trade. Petrell is nice to have for the PK but he's replaceable.

I'd rather see Clitsome on the ice then Potter or Teubert.

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12-08-2012, 10:32 PM
  #27
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I don't believe I was really too out of line...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
Petrell got saddled with the worst linemates on the team and was used as a defensive winger. He is a PK ace. I would caution against using stats to judge Petrell on as he really wasn't put in a position to succeed. Petrell is a 4th liner but he's a 4th liner who is physical, fights, can play up in the lineup, and is excellent on the PK.
I understand but you can look at these things to a degree with stats.
With the worst linemates, I did notice and showed how all of Petrell's linemates did worse with him than without.
It was same with goals for/against and corsi so even if you don't trust corsi, it still holds the same.
I also said that since it's his first year in the NHL, this should all be taken with a grain of salt.
I did not look at his PK and if he is a solid PK as a 1st year that can be promising.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
Peckham is very underrated, he's got more potential than most on HF realize. Another PK ace he has the ability to be a Matt Greene type player who can double as an enforcer. People forget but Peckham is young and has had some very solid stretches of play. In his 1st season he played alot of the teams tough minutes with Gilbert and fared pretty well in doing so. I'd easily take Peckham over Clitsome. I think you are valuing Corsi far too much without considering things like the team Peckham played on or the role he played. Also things like his PK and enforcing abilities add a lot more to the equation than EV strength stats can account for. Peckham is very hard to play against and was a quality shutdown AHL defender, he's still developing.
I do consider role played... you can pull that out easily. Clitsome played for CBJ so I don't think being on a "weak team" helps Peckham's case.
Again, I didn't look at PK, but it's very rare for players to be actually solid at PK when they are weak at ES... as much as the layman's eye tells them otherwise.

I'm not really over valuing or over trusting statistics I don't think, and I think there is value in character also.
But, I think it can get overvalued too. I also think sometimes hard-working-but-inefficient guys get exalted as "character guys" as default since they don't have other abilities... also, if character, enforcer, etc. doesn't make the end results better, than are you really helping the team? (sorry but a bit tangent of my opinions).

Quote:
All in all the deal is fair, and Clitsome certainly would be an upgrade over Potter, but i don't know if it helps Edmonton. Myself i would much rather see Eager moved over Petrell. And 3rd pairing small puck movers tend to be easily signed (Chris Campoli anyone).
Value wise it may be ok but I'd say it's still an upgrade for you guys, and a downgrade for us when looking at the whole picture. (We have some Petrell's in the system)

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Old
12-09-2012, 01:49 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Value wise it may be ok but I'd say it's still an upgrade for you guys, and a downgrade for us when looking at the whole picture. (We have some Petrell's in the system)
Its is debatable which one is better, because their stats are so close, but you must remember Potter was thrown to the wolfs last year and played against tougher opponents then Clitsome. Instead of being brought along slowly, like most rookies are, the Oilers were force to play Potter more due to injuries amongst their D . Clitsome and Potter both played about the same amount of PP time and unlike one poster said, Potter's points were evenly split between the PP and EV. Potter was not the answer last year and if he was brought along slowly, things might of been different, but no way is Clitsome an upgrade. Why would the Oilers make this trade when they could get a better D though waivers.

If Winnipeg had players like Petrell in their system, why didn't they use them, because their PK, 24th last season, sure could of used the help.

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12-09-2012, 03:18 AM
  #29
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The value of this trade is not bad. However, the Jets already have internal personnel developed(ing) for his role. Clitsome currently fills a role that will eventually be replace by a couple of guys in the system. From a Jets standpoint it is not good for developmental standpoint and for the Oil Petrell is worth keeping.

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12-09-2012, 04:13 AM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I do consider role played... you can pull that out easily. Clitsome played for CBJ so I don't think being on a "weak team" helps Peckham's case.
Again, I didn't look at PK, but it's very rare for players to be actually solid at PK when they are weak at ES... as much as the layman's eye tells them otherwise.
That's not always true when you're talking about a dman who's biggest weakness is his skating. The PK is an entirely different game. Peckham is effective because he's as strong as a bull, and does a good job of battling in the corner, and clearing the front of the net. Peckham had a bit of an off year last year, but he's generally pretty underrated

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Old
12-09-2012, 05:12 AM
  #31
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This is still open?

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Old
12-09-2012, 01:10 PM
  #32
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Everybody wants Clitsome.

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Old
12-09-2012, 01:43 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I don't believe I was really too out of line...


I understand but you can look at these things to a degree with stats.
With the worst linemates, I did notice and showed how all of Petrell's linemates did worse with him than without.
It was same with goals for/against and corsi so even if you don't trust corsi, it still holds the same.
I also said that since it's his first year in the NHL, this should all be taken with a grain of salt.
I did not look at his PK and if he is a solid PK as a 1st year that can be promising.
Oh no don't get me wrong, you make a strong point. Regardless of his teammates he was most often used as a defensive option, this would make his teammates stats worse. A good example would be how he was sometimes utilized as an option to kill the remaining seconds in a game the Oil were leading, say he was out there with Horcoff and Hemsky it's going to make the WOWY comp. look worse. He also played well in a game or two with the Nuge and Eberle, but having replaced Hall it's not suprising that his two linemates did worse with him. For the most part he was saddled with guys like Hordichuk, Eager, and rookie center Anton Lander, and that truly is a heavy burden. There's a reason i called him a 4th liner and a depth player, but he seems to have the skillset you want out of a 4th line guy, but he most certainly can be argued as being a "poorer" player in relation to NHL talent.


Quote:
I do consider role played... you can pull that out easily. Clitsome played for CBJ so I don't think being on a "weak team" helps Peckham's case.
Again, I didn't look at PK, but it's very rare for players to be actually solid at PK when they are weak at ES... as much as the layman's eye tells them otherwise.
I think you misunderstand i said his team's ability relative to role. In 10-11 Peckham played many of the teams tough minutes on the leagues worst team, duing this time CLB was average and Clitsome wasn't getting anywhere near the same role. Peckham is excellent on the PK and it's not even debatable, only Smid averaged more PK ice time than Peckham last season. Peckham wasn't as weak at Evens as you claim either, he was even last year and -5 the year before while playing on the leagues worst team during that stretch. On a team like Edmonton most players are going to have a poor Corsi, especially when they play defensive minutes. Regher is a good example of a player who has a poor Corsi but is excellent at reducing 2nd chances and the amount of pucks that go into the net. Peckham is a depth guy at this point, but he's got room to grow and has shown some real potential in valuable roles in the NHL. At the very worst Peckham is an enforcer who can PK and take a shift on the 3rd pairing, that's far more valuable than a 3rd pairing puck mover IMO and certainly alot harder to come by. When you consider Peckham (just turned 25) is still very young for a defensive D (for example Mitchell and Scuderi in LA never even made the league until they where well into their mid 20's iirc) while Clitsome is a full two and a half years older i think it furthers my position that Peckham>Clitsome. At the end of the day i'm awfully confident that Peckham will have the longer career and be the more coveted talent. Clitsome is a depth defenseman with far less room to grow.

Quote:
I'm not really over valuing or over trusting statistics I don't think, and I think there is value in character also.
But, I think it can get overvalued too. I also think sometimes hard-working-but-inefficient guys get exalted as "character guys" as default since they don't have other abilities... also, if character, enforcer, etc. doesn't make the end results better, than are you really helping the team? (sorry but a bit tangent of my opinions).
I really agree with what you are saying about skill being undervalued for knuckledraggers sometimes, however i would argue that Peckham is in fact an exceptional athlete who's a little short on skill as opposed to just a bully who's willing to be tough. Peckham has a little bit of skill, he can skate decent for a big man, decent shot, excellent shot blocker, great hitter, and a track record as a pro shutdown defenseman. Decision making is his biggest problem at this point and that's pretty much the norm for young defensemen. IMO it's a major arrow if a guy has a resume before the age of 25 as having been used as a shutdown defenseman in a major pro league. Peckham's performance in the AHL as well as some strong stretches of play in the NHL make me feel there is a real player here. He was only 24 last year, that's very young for a defenseman.

Quote:
Value wise it may be ok but I'd say it's still an upgrade for you guys, and a downgrade for us when looking at the whole picture. (We have some Petrell's in the system)
As others have said i in fact think the very thing Winnipeg does not have an abundance of is "Petrell's". It seems to me Winnipeg had a poor PK and could use some depth wingers with size and tenacity. Clitsome would help the D with Sutton having been hurt and Potter falling off badly after his cinderella start to 11-12, but i don't know if the Oilers have the kind of 4th line depth they need to move a Petrell for a guy like Clitsome when guys who are probably better (Campoli) are avaliable as UFA's. In saying that Winnipeg probably could find some "Petrell's" if they really wanted too, just like Edmonton could find a "Clitsome". I really ought to reiterate that i fell the op was reasonable, just perhaps a little shy of meeting our needs.


Last edited by Eskimo44: 12-09-2012 at 01:50 PM.
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Old
12-09-2012, 02:46 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nuge View Post
That's not always true when you're talking about a dman who's biggest weakness is his skating. The PK is an entirely different game. Peckham is effective because he's as strong as a bull, and does a good job of battling in the corner, and clearing the front of the net. Peckham had a bit of an off year last year, but he's generally pretty underrated
Peckham was definitely an excellent PKer last year, and he can really lay the body. He's definitely worth keeping around if he can revert back to his 2010-11 form, but last year's Peckham was absolutely atrocious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WeridAl View Post
Its is debatable which one is better, because their stats are so close, but you must remember Potter was thrown to the wolfs last year and played against tougher opponents then Clitsome. Instead of being brought along slowly, like most rookies are, the Oilers were force to play Potter more due to injuries amongst their D . Clitsome and Potter both played about the same amount of PP time and unlike one poster said, Potter's points were evenly split between the PP and EV. Potter was not the answer last year and if he was brought along slowly, things might of been different, but no way is Clitsome an upgrade. Why would the Oilers make this trade when they could get a better D though waivers.

If Winnipeg had players like Petrell in their system, why didn't they use them, because their PK, 24th last season, sure could of used the help.
I've watched more of Clitsome than most other Oilers fans, and I can tell you without a doubt that Clitsome >> Potter. Stats aren't the only things that matter here.
I'd say Petrell would be more valuable to the Jets than he is to the Oilers, and Clitsome would be more valuable on the Oilers than he is on the Jets.
Win-win IMO.


Last edited by franfrey*: 12-09-2012 at 02:52 PM.
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Old
12-09-2012, 04:10 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yourface View Post
Clitsome >> Potter in the D-zone. Clitty isn't a stalwart, but it's hard not to be better than Potter in that department. Keep in mind Clitsome doesn't play (or rarely plays) on the PP, which is where Potter probably got most of his points. He's also a better skater.


I've watched more of Clitsome than most other Oilers fans, and I can tell you without a doubt that Clitsome >> Potter. Stats aren't the only things that matter here.
I'd say Petrell would be more valuable to the Jets than he is to the Oilers, and Clitsome would be more valuable on the Oilers than he is on the Jets.
Win-win IMO.
If you had watched Clitsome you would know he did played the PP, almost as much as Potter. It would also be smart to check the stats before you make a statement like when you said Potter got most of his points on the PP, which is also false. Why should we believe you when you've made at least 2 bogus claims.

Is Clitsome better then Potter is debatable and if he was why didn't the Oilers snatch him up on waivers before the Jets did. The Oiler management obviously didn't think he was. The fact is neither D are a option for the Oiler's future.

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12-09-2012, 04:49 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jets View Post
To WPG
Lennart Petrell

To EDM
Grant Clitsome

Clitsome is an upgrade over Potter/Peckham while they wait for Klefbom and Musil as the 6th/7th D on the Oil, and Petrell can hold a roster spot in the Jets bottom 6/13th forward utility man.

Pretty much a depth for depth needs deal.
No from the Oilers . We have enough bottom D men . Plus we need some grit in our bottom 6 , I think Lennart can bring some of that

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Old
12-09-2012, 05:49 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WeridAl View Post
If you had watched Clitsome you would know he did played the PP, almost as much as Potter. It would also be smart to check the stats before you make a statement like when you said Potter got most of his points on the PP, which is also false. Why should we believe you when you've made at least 2 bogus claims.

Practice what you preach man! 11 PP points out of 21 = most of his points were on the power play.

Also, I should mention that I did not watch Clitsome with Columbus, and that's where he got most of his PP time for sure (I don't know where to find those stats though). Potter is an absolute train wreck in his own zone, Clitsome is at least a serviceable defender who can play in all zones.
I don't have inside info on the Oilers management so I can't tell what they were thinking behind the scenes but with Sutton's probable retirement, we REALLY lack depth on the backend and Clitsome would provide that in some ways.


Last edited by franfrey*: 12-09-2012 at 05:59 PM.
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Old
12-09-2012, 11:42 PM
  #38
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I'd do this trade.


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Old
12-10-2012, 01:00 AM
  #39
garret9
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Just wanted to clear few things, cos 1) I'm bad at communicating and 2) I understand Jets PK woes pretty well


WPG's bad PK is for these reasons:
*the coaching staff didn't use the guys good on the PK
*the few that are good that were used lost lots of man games
*Pavelec 0.912 sv%
*the lack-luster depth last season meant some heavy lifting was given to some terrible guys
Slater < Burmistrov/Little on PK but Slater was used more
Glass < Antropov/Ladd on PK but Glass was used more
Stuart < Hainsey/Clitsome/Byfuglien but Stuart was used more
Bogosian was a heavy lifter but lost lots of man games

A lot of these problems (other than Pavs) would most likely be fixed with the additions of Ponikarovsky and Jokinen.
*Jokinen would be terrible for any defensive minutes, but he pushes Burmistrov down to bottom6 defensive depth, where he seems to actually be fairly elite at.
*Ponikarovsky allows for a construction of a real third line, instead of terrible GST, (Jets use a hybrid of power vs power and shutdown line, unlike EDM that uses power vs power) as he is a solid shutdown 3rd liner to lay with Burmistrov


Petrall being "defensive"
Petrall didn't exactly face top lines. Sure he only had 48.7% of his zone starts in the Dzone but this is no Malhotra in the low teens or Jets' Slater in the 20s. He was sheltered from tough competition and was mostly facing guys like Torres and Stajan.

Can see some player usage using corsi here:
http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Resea...harts_2012.pdf

If you don't like corsi for competition, look at the ATOI of the guys the players face against (for fun I added WPG):



Petrall wasn't just pulling down Hemsky, RNH and other guys facing tough competitions... I was saying with the WOWY he was pulling down Hordichuk, Eager, Lander, Belanger and those guys...
I was saying though, that it's not unusual to see that in a rookie, and if he is a solid PKer, then he could have some promise as a bottom6 guy.

EDIT: I checked Petrall's PK #s... pretty effing good, specially for first year. He didn't do as well as Ladd or Burmistrov, but beating Smyth is pretty impressive for first year in the NHL (but not first pro year).

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Old
12-10-2012, 09:17 AM
  #40
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This trade gets a big "meh" from me.

Petrell is a fourth line/energy guy who PK's (reasonable well). Might as well keep him, I doubt the Oil are that desperate for another "meh" Dman to add to their already overwhelmingly "meh" D.

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