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Philadelphia Phillies (MLB): The "Ruf"fled Offseason Thread

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Old
12-08-2012, 05:26 PM
  #651
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Originally Posted by FLYguy3911 View Post
You bat him in the 8 hole, he's going to be on base with the pitcher to bat. The pitcher's not going to drive him in, its a wasted sacrifice, and your not going to risk running him with 2 outs and have the pitcher leadoff an inning if he gets thrown out. You can do it in the AL with no automatic out, but not in the NL. If he bats 8th you take away what he does best. Its 1 or 2 for him barring a slump.
Batting him 8th. He gets on. Steals second. Pitcher sacrifices him to third. Rollins pops up, as usual, and he scores.

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12-08-2012, 05:41 PM
  #652
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God awful offensive production with above average defensive production... now they'll have average (at best) offensive production and god awful defensive production. The fact that they aren't covering much of the salary at least brings my mood on the deal from annoyed to ambivalent, though.
He's going to be here for a year for only $6 million. This isnt a bad trade. if he is terrible again,so would Wigginton/Polanco/Galvis/Frandsen. They gave up a young bullpen arm, and unless he becomes Mariano Rivera who cares.

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12-08-2012, 05:53 PM
  #653
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Batting him 8th. He gets on. Steals second. Pitcher sacrifices him to third. Rollins pops up, as usual, and he scores.
Yeah except it will be tougher to steal bases with the amount of fastballs being thrown to the pitcher. Add in opposing pitchers will slide step knowing the pitcher is no threat at the plate. So what's a 20% risk to begin with is suddenly 50/50. And like I said before its a wasted sacrifice. He's one of the fastest guys in the league. He's already in scoring position. Save the sacrifice for Ruiz or Kratz. And he won't be running with two outs and the pitcher at the plate. The guy does three things well- hit, run, and play defense. If you bat him 8th, you're pretty much wasting two of them. National League 101.

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Old
12-08-2012, 08:57 PM
  #654
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Yeah. Considering Lindblom was a disaster and Bonilla was a reliever in A ball (I think,) I don't see the issue with this deal at all.
AA, where he struck out over 12 batters per 9. I realize he's a prospect, and may or may not have helped the team, but Young isn't a sure bet either considering how bad he was last year and his age/general decline. So they basically gave up a 22 year old reliever who might have been able to help them for a 36 year old 3B who might be able to help them. I'd rather take my chances on the 22 year old with a mid 90s fastball and a plus-plus changeup.

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12-08-2012, 09:26 PM
  #655
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Yeah except it will be tougher to steal bases with the amount of fastballs being thrown to the pitcher. Add in opposing pitchers will slide step knowing the pitcher is no threat at the plate. So what's a 20% risk to begin with is suddenly 50/50. And like I said before its a wasted sacrifice. He's one of the fastest guys in the league. He's already in scoring position. Save the sacrifice for Ruiz or Kratz. And he won't be running with two outs and the pitcher at the plate. The guy does three things well- hit, run, and play defense. If you bat him 8th, you're pretty much wasting two of them. National League 101.
Batting him 2nd presents other problems. First, the chances of someone being on base ahead of him increases Rollins will/should get on base more than the 7 hole guy. So unless your double stealing...

Second, Utley is a LH batter. You want to keep the right side open. It's distracting for a LH hitter to have a guy go and stop over at first because you are running in his line of sight.

Finally, you run the risk of taking the bat out of Howards hands if Utley makes an out because then 1st base is open.

Traditionally you don't have big time base stealers hitting in the 2 hole.

EDIT: His OBP is will probably be higher then Jimmy Rollins. I would bat the guy leadoff and tell him to run at will. This will give him the best opportunity to be on base with no one in front of him.

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12-08-2012, 09:46 PM
  #656
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Dodgers gave Greinke 147m over 6 years

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12-08-2012, 10:22 PM
  #657
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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
Batting him 2nd presents other problems. First, the chances of someone being on base ahead of him increases Rollins will/should get on base more than the 7 hole guy. So unless your double stealing...
I don't see this as a problem. If you have two guys on, you already have one in scoring position and Revere is one of the best baserunners in the league. He can score from first on a ball in the gap. Its not like he didn't hit in font of Span, who gets on base a lot more than Rollins.

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Second, Utley is a LH batter. You want to keep the right side open. It's distracting for a LH hitter to have a guy go and stop over at first because you are running in his line of sight.
As a LH myself, I can tell you this is not really a distraction. If you are focused on the release point, you don't see it. There is no better friend than a man on first as a LH hitter. If he steals the bag, you have a duck on the pond. Again, it's not like he hasn't hit behind Rollins and Victorino for all these years.

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Finally, you run the risk of taking the bat out of Howards hands if Utley makes an out because then 1st base is open.
You're always going to run that risk. That's baseball. This is nothing new. Howard has hit behind Rollins, Vic, and Utley his whole career. You got to pick your spots.

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Traditionally you don't have big time base stealers hitting in the 2 hole.
The game as a whole has moved away from base stealers. This shouldn't be used a reason not to hit a guy there. Their leadoff man just so happens to be one of the best base stealers in the game.

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EDIT: His OBP is will probably be higher then Jimmy Rollins. I would bat the guy leadoff and tell him to run at will. This will give him the best opportunity to be on base with no one in front of him.
Over his career, his numbers batting second are better than leading off by a good margin. Jimmy is most likely going to leadoff, we all know that by now, but Revere is the prototypical #2 hitter. He can bunt, he's one of the best contact hitters in the league, he can hit righty's and lefty's, he can spray the ball, he can take pitches and work the contact. He gives you a lot of flexibility. As far as having someone in front of him, he did just fine with Span in front of him and he's not nearly as good a baserunner as Rollins (and Span gets on base more than Rollins).

The real question is where Utley and Young hit. I doubt Charlie moves Utley from the three spot. Young hit mostly in the middle of the order with Texas last year, but he can hit anywhere. I wouldn't be shocked, assuming they don't sign a middle of the order bat, if he hits 5th. He's not the prototypical 5 hitter, but he's a singles hitter that can make you pay if you pitch around guys. He has experience hitting behind Hamilton and Beltre and all those guys in Texas. If Charlie does move Utley, I could see Young hitting third to break up the lefties. He has killed lefties throughout his career.

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Old
12-08-2012, 11:07 PM
  #658
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I really think the Phil's will sign Hamilton. They brought in a guy for cheap who's a good locker room guy, and a friend of hamiltons from the same team, and they traded for a young center fielder on the cheap. This all costs them about 6 million. I think they're up to something bigger than what they've done so far, and I really think that something is Hamilton.

And I don't care about his baggage, or any other reason people have come up to not sign him, the dude is a monster. He's incredibly talented, and I could see him hitting 50+ home runs this season playing here fairly easily.

I'd like to see

Revere
Rollins
Utley
Hamilton
Howard
Ruiz
Ruf/Brown
Young
P


Last edited by orange is better: 12-08-2012 at 11:18 PM.
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12-08-2012, 11:14 PM
  #659
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I really think the Phil's will sign Hamilton. They brought in a guy for cheap who's a good locker room guy, and a friend of hamiltons from the same team, and they traded for a young center fielder on the cheap. This all costs them about 6 million. I think they're up to something bigger than what they've done so far, and I really think that something is Hamilton
Please god no.

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12-08-2012, 11:35 PM
  #660
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Please god no.
Why? 45+ home runs a season not what we need?

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12-08-2012, 11:42 PM
  #661
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
I really think the Phil's will sign Hamilton. They brought in a guy for cheap who's a good locker room guy, and a friend of hamiltons from the same team, and they traded for a young center fielder on the cheap. This all costs them about 6 million. I think they're up to something bigger than what they've done so far, and I really think that something is Hamilton.

And I don't care about his baggage, or any other reason people have come up to not sign him, the dude is a monster. He's incredibly talented, and I could see him hitting 50+ home runs this season playing here fairly easily.

I'd like to see

Revere
Rollins
Utley
Hamilton
Howard
Ruiz
Ruf/Brown
Young
P
Humoring you, if the Phils got Hamilton I would prefer to bat him 3rd over Utley. But with Hamilton the lineup is so LH heavy they really can't break them all up. They really need a RH power bat for the corner OF spot. Cody Ross is more likely than Josh Hamilton.

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12-09-2012, 12:12 AM
  #662
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Humoring you, if the Phils got Hamilton I would prefer to bat him 3rd over Utley. But with Hamilton the lineup is so LH heavy they really can't break them all up. They really need a RH power bat for the corner OF spot. Cody Ross is more likely than Josh Hamilton.
I would hardly call 3 out of 9 years of 22, 24 and 22 home runs respectively, the power bat we need in this lineup. I agree that Ross being right handed fills a hypothetical need... But come on. How does a guy who can very easily give you at least 40 home runs not fill a need more, regardless of which side of the plate it's coming from? How is a right handed ~20 home run hitter more valuable to us than a left handed ~40(+) home run hitter? The runs are still being scored. I think way too much emphasis is put on right handed/left handed by baseball fans. You have Ruiz, Ruf and Young batting from the right side, with Jimmy thrown in as a capable switch hitter.. You don't need an even split to be successful.

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12-09-2012, 12:21 AM
  #663
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
I really think the Phil's will sign Hamilton. They brought in a guy for cheap who's a good locker room guy, and a friend of hamiltons from the same team, and they traded for a young center fielder on the cheap. This all costs them about 6 million. I think they're up to something bigger than what they've done so far, and I really think that something is Hamilton.

And I don't care about his baggage, or any other reason people have come up to not sign him, the dude is a monster. He's incredibly talented, and I could see him hitting 50+ home runs this season playing here fairly easily.
Why could you see him hitting 50? He's never done that before and the Rangers' park is more hitter friendly than ours. I don't think people are opposed to the idea of paying a guy 25 million a year to be the best (or close to it) hitter in baseball. It's just that there are several reasons to believe his production will drop off significantly at some point before the contract runs its course.

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12-09-2012, 12:41 AM
  #664
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I would hardly call 3 out of 9 years of 22, 24 and 22 home runs respectively, the power bat we need in this lineup. I agree that Ross being right handed fills a hypothetical need... But come on. How does a guy who can very easily give you at least 40 home runs not fill a need more, regardless of which side of the plate it's coming from? How is a right handed ~20 home run hitter more valuable to us than a left handed ~40(+) home run hitter? The runs are still being scored. I think way too much emphasis is put on right handed/left handed by baseball fans. You have Ruiz, Ruf and Young batting from the right side, with Jimmy thrown in as a capable switch hitter.. You don't need an even split to be successful.
Because Utley and Howard can't hit LH pitching so other teams bring in the LOOGY. You need RH bats to break up the LOOGY's. That's why I'm a huge proponent of breaking Utley and Howard up in the order. Howard and Utley can mash RHP, so you need guys who can hit LHP. For kicks I took a look at Hamilton v. Ross against LHP.

Here's Josh Hamilton's career numbers vs. LHP: .280 ba, .808 ops.
2012 vs. LHP: .291 ba, .853 ops.

Very respectable for Hamilton.

Here goes Cody Ross' career numbers vs. LHP: .284 ba, .928 ops.
2012 vs. LHP: .295 ba, 1.010 ops.

See the difference in the ops.

The teams in your division are gonna throw LHers (and some nasty BP lefties) at you and you need guys that can hit LHP because Utley and Howard couldn't do it last year.

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12-09-2012, 12:45 AM
  #665
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Why could you see him hitting 50? He's never done that before and the Rangers' park is more hitter friendly than ours. I don't think people are opposed to the idea of paying a guy 25 million a year to be the best (or close to it) hitter in baseball. It's just that there are several reasons to believe his production will drop off significantly at some point before the contract runs its course.
My mistake. For some reason I thought the rangers park was less home run friendly than CBP. Regardless, I believe he can hit at least 40 next season and probably the season after, and then probably drop off a good amount to probably around upper 20s-30 the next season, and which point we'll most likely be looking to rebuild this roster with young players anyway, because realistically this core has a year, maybe 2 left of competing before we really need to think about rebuilding, however that may be.

I think it's well worth that inevitability to sign Hamilton. He gives you a chance to win now. I'll ask you to think back to 2008. We had 4 guys with a lot of pop in their bats that year. Howard, Burrell, Werth and Utley. You need that. The reason pitchers are more inclined to throw junk at Howard is because they know we don't have Burrell and Werth coming up after him. You need that intimidation factor back in the lineup. With the addition of Hamilton to Howard, you have 2 guys who can bat cleanup, and another guy who can potentially hit 30+ home runs in Ruf. Thats not quite as intimidating as 2008 howard, utley, burrell and werth, and who knows what Utley will do or what Ruiz will do after his suspension, but it's still much better than any other option out there IMO.

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12-09-2012, 01:07 AM
  #666
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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
Because Utley and Howard can't hit LH pitching so other teams bring in the LOOGY. You need RH bats to break up the LOOGY's. That's why I'm a huge proponent of breaking Utley and Howard up in the order. Howard and Utley can mash RHP, so you need guys who can hit LHP. For kicks I took a look at Hamilton v. Ross against LHP.

Here's Josh Hamilton's career numbers vs. LHP: .280 ba, .808 ops.
2012 vs. LHP: .291 ba, .853 ops.

Very respectable for Hamilton.

Here goes Cody Ross' career numbers vs. LHP: .284 ba, .928 ops.
2012 vs. LHP: .295 ba, 1.010 ops.

See the difference in the ops.

The teams in your division are gonna throw LHers (and some nasty BP lefties) at you and you need guys that can hit LHP because Utley and Howard couldn't do it last year.
While I'll agree with your points, I don't know that we should be counting on much more from Utley this season. It's clear he's not the player he was, and my point is to move on from him being a primary source of offense. He's not anymore. Howard may be much better this year. He had a bad achillies injury, and what's worse for a power hitter, it was in his back foot. I know that hitting with power from your back foot doesn't necessarily equate to hitting in general and making contact, namely off of left handed pitchers in this case, but it does force you to change your approach at the plate, and screw things up for you for a while, and that may have been a huge part of Howard's ineptitude and lack of technical prowess in his approach at the plate.

And Ross's and hamiltons numbers against lefties really aren't different enough to warrant throwing away 40+ home runs and 120+ rbis in favor of a few more avg points against left handers. If Hamilton was hitting like .230 against lefties while Ross was going .330 then I could see where you're coming from, the difference is negligible, considering the superior power that Hamilton possesses.

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12-09-2012, 01:12 AM
  #667
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Justin Upton would be nice.

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12-09-2012, 08:39 AM
  #668
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Psyched on the Young deal. Not expecting any crazy numbers but he should be a solid option at third for the next year while they try and finagle a long-term solution.

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12-09-2012, 11:01 AM
  #669
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he should be a solid option at third for the next year
Nope.

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12-09-2012, 11:11 AM
  #670
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Nope.
Really? And who would have been a better option? This is a good move. They didn't give up much and got a solid third baseman. He's not what he used to be, but he's not better than our other options.

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12-09-2012, 11:17 AM
  #671
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Psyched on the Young deal. Not expecting any crazy numbers but he should be a solid option at third for the next year while they try and finagle a long-term solution.
There is nothing solid about Young at third. He has no range.

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12-09-2012, 12:36 PM
  #672
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There is nothing solid about Young at third. He has no range.
but... I recognize his name, so... he must be an upgrade... right?

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12-09-2012, 12:43 PM
  #673
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but... I recognize his name, so... he must be an upgrade... right?
Yea good point it's a reach to think he's going to be an upgrade on Kevin ****ing Frandsen.

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12-09-2012, 01:23 PM
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Yea good point it's a reach to think he's going to be an upgrade on Kevin ****ing Frandsen.
Even under the assumption that last year was an aberration of the highest order and Frandsen would have hit this upcoming season around his career .686 OPS, Young would need a .760ish OPS to have an equivalent WAR (around neutral) with the drastic defensive gap between the two (from slightly above average to inept)... heck, he hit .854 in 2011 and only squeezed out a pedestrian 2.1 WAR - and I don't think even the most optimistic (re: delusional) expect anywhere near that from him this season.

So, as I have said before, even money on Frandsen having a better WAR this upcoming season than Young would have been a pretty safe handicapping - though, now we'll likely never know... because even after Young comes out of the gate hitting .700 and whiffing at every soft grounder to come within 5 feet of him, good ole Chollie will keep his "proven vet" in there - just like he did with Raul.

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12-09-2012, 04:17 PM
  #675
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There is nothing solid about Young at third. He has no range.
Meh, I am not all that concerned about Young's fielding. He's not a good fielder. Fine. I am more interested in his bat.

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but... I recognize his name, so... he must be an upgrade... right?
But a website that has stats I don't really understand says he isn't an upgrade so he must not be...right?

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