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Philadelphia Phillies (MLB): The "Ruf"fled Offseason Thread

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Old
12-09-2012, 04:25 PM
  #676
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Even under the assumption that last year was an aberration of the highest order and Frandsen would have hit this upcoming season around his career .686 OPS, Young would need a .760ish OPS to have an equivalent WAR (around neutral) with the drastic defensive gap between the two (from slightly above average to inept)... heck, he hit .854 in 2011 and only squeezed out a pedestrian 2.1 WAR - and I don't think even the most optimistic (re: delusional) expect anywhere near that from him this season.

So, as I have said before, even money on Frandsen having a better WAR this upcoming season than Young would have been a pretty safe handicapping - though, now we'll likely never know... because even after Young comes out of the gate hitting .700 and whiffing at every soft grounder to come within 5 feet of him, good ole Chollie will keep his "proven vet" in there - just like he did with Raul.
He's been a DH/utility guy the past two years. Playing everyday, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume he could put up numbers similar to his 2010 numbers which were pretty much right around his career averages.

For 6M, it's worth the gamble IMO.

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12-09-2012, 04:27 PM
  #677
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Even under the assumption that last year was an aberration of the highest order and Frandsen would have hit this upcoming season around his career .686 OPS, Young would need a .760ish OPS to have an equivalent WAR (around neutral) with the drastic defensive gap between the two (from slightly above average to inept)... heck, he hit .854 in 2011 and only squeezed out a pedestrian 2.1 WAR - and I don't think even the most optimistic (re: delusional) expect anywhere near that from him this season.

So, as I have said before, even money on Frandsen having a better WAR this upcoming season than Young would have been a pretty safe handicapping - though, now we'll likely never know... because even after Young comes out of the gate hitting .700 and whiffing at every soft grounder to come within 5 feet of him, good ole Chollie will keep his "proven vet" in there - just like he did with Raul.
I think for Josh Lindblom, its worth a shot that Young rebounds. I'm not a fan of getting a 36 year old 3B who can't play D, but if he has a bounce back year he'll be better than Frandsen.

Also I think your numbers are wrong, or maybe you're using BR because fangraphs had him at a 3.7 WAR in 2011.

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12-09-2012, 04:51 PM
  #678
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Old
12-09-2012, 05:06 PM
  #679
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Originally Posted by FLYguy3911 View Post
Frandsen was on SiriusXM yesterday... he is kind of going out of his way so much to be a "good sport" about the deal that he is starting to seem bitter - whether he means to be or not.

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12-09-2012, 05:15 PM
  #680
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
But a website that has stats I don't really understand says he isn't an upgrade so he must not be...right?
Did you try to zing me by admitting that you don't know what basic stats like WAR mean?

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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
He's been a DH/utility guy the past two years. Playing everyday, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume he could put up numbers similar to his 2010 numbers which were pretty much right around his career averages.

For 6M, it's worth the gamble IMO.
He was playing everyday (unless, of course, you're suggesting that not playing in the field somehow affected his bat despite '11 being 60 OPS points above his career average)... 159 in '11 and 156 in '12. Of that, he played 69 games at DH in '11 and 72 games at DH in '12. So, in actuality, his WAR was boosted by having just shy of half of his games not include his abysmal dWAR.

Thank you for giving me more ammo against him.

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I think for Josh Lindblom, its worth a shot that Young rebounds. I'm not a fan of getting a 36 year old 3B who can't play D, but if he has a bounce back year he'll be better than Frandsen.
It sounds like Bonilla was a great kid (>12K:9 is a peripheral that is impressive no matter where he is pitching), but he is far off and, as with all low ball prospects, has the odds stacked against him of ever being a meaningful MLer... so it isn't like I am somehow lamenting what we gave up - merely trying to spread realism to those whom are expecting something that they won't be receiving.

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Originally Posted by Protest View Post
Also I think your numbers are wrong, or maybe you're using BR because fangraphs had him at a 3.7 WAR in 2011.
I've always found fangraphs to be a bit too liberal with their WARs and prefer to use Baseball Reference. Honestly, I'd like to someday sit down and try to figure out if the average WAR of fangraph across the league for a sample season actually has a limit approaching 0 because from cursory observation I have concerns that it wouldn't.

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12-09-2012, 06:28 PM
  #681
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Did you try to zing me by admitting that you don't know what basic stats like WAR mean?
I was actually insinuating that you don't really understand it.

I am not a SABR guy, so perhaps I am biased, but the fact that there are several sites out there defining this stat differently and the explanations of how to calculate the state which includes just addition subtraction or division of other advanced stats doesn't really do a great job of actually explaining how it is calculated make it difficult to really trust. I'll stick to actually watching the games and using stats that are tangible instead of trying to quantify a guys fielding ability and throwing power to factor it in to a formula that will be used to show who the better player is.


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12-09-2012, 06:48 PM
  #682
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
He was playing everyday (unless, of course, you're suggesting that not playing in the field somehow affected his bat despite '11 being 60 OPS points above his career average)... 159 in '11 and 156 in '12. Of that, he played 69 games at DH in '11 and 72 games at DH in '12. So, in actuality, his WAR was boosted by having just shy of half of his games not include his abysmal dWAR.

Thank you for giving me more ammo against him.
So, I assume you think that showing up at the Ballpark not knowing what, if any, position you might be playing AND having to practice at no less than 3 positions would impact your ability to be more adept at any one of those positions? His dWAR the last year he played a position fulltime in 2010 was -.08. A number that if he matches will likely make him a solid offensive contributor for 7.2M a year. That's not even mentioning the fact that Fransden can come in as a defensive replacement late in games.

What I don't understand about your position is it's inconsistency. If you are a huge WAR guy, then I understand your apprehension about Young. However, you were equally critical of the Revere acquisition and his 2.4 WAR. At 24, without playing a full season, I'd expect someone of your stat geakiness to laud that move.... Or is it just convenient to measure the statistics that most appropriately apply to your argument?

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12-09-2012, 07:27 PM
  #683
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
I was actually insinuating that you don't really understand it.

I am not a SABR guy, so perhaps I am biased, but the fact that there are several sites out there defining this stat differently and the explanations of how to calculate the state which includes just addition subtraction or division of other advanced stats doesn't really do a great job of actually explaining how it is calculated make it difficult to really trust. I'll stick to actually watching the games and using stats that are tangible instead of trying to quantify a guys fielding ability and throwing power to factor it in to a formula that will be used to show who the better player is.
The thing is that WAR isn't a statistic, its a framework for combining different statistics. Therefore, you can put whatever stats into the framework that you like, and get whatever "WAR" comes out. That's the reason that there are several forms of WAR.

Personally I'm not a huge fan of it because it (fangraphs) includes UZR and a base running stat that aren't really concrete stats. UZR for 1B and catchers is kind of useless because of the type of defensive skills needed for those positions is different, and UZR for outfielders is skewed by the type of pitchers teams have (FB vs GB). Not to mention it can fluctuate enormously from year to year.

The best thing to do with that stat is look for the players career numbers, and for extreme numbers. If someone was +2, -3, and then +5. I'm not sure it tells you much. If it's +17, +13, +20 then you can say that guy is probably a pretty good fielder.

I like the offense oriented advance stats like OPS, ISO, wOBA, wRC+. Those are the things I look at for comparing players. WAR is kind of a simplified way of doing things, but you really have to dig deeper to get the real picture.

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12-09-2012, 08:39 PM
  #684
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
I was actually insinuating that you don't really understand it.

I am not a SABR guy, so perhaps I am biased, but the fact that there are several sites out there defining this stat differently and the explanations of how to calculate the state which includes just addition subtraction or division of other advanced stats doesn't really do a great job of actually explaining how it is calculated make it difficult to really trust. I'll stick to actually watching the games and using stats that are tangible instead of trying to quantify a guys fielding ability and throwing power to factor it in to a formula that will be used to show who the better player is.
Wow you are clueless

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Old
12-09-2012, 09:02 PM
  #685
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
It sounds like Bonilla was a great kid (>12K:9 is a peripheral that is impressive no matter where he is pitching), but he is far off and, as with all low ball prospects, has the odds stacked against him of ever being a meaningful MLer... so it isn't like I am somehow lamenting what we gave up - merely trying to spread realism to those whom are expecting something that they won't be receiving.
He was in AA for a good bit of last year, which isn't considered far off as far as prospects go. Actually, were he to remain in the bullpen, it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the majors this year. He has a good fastball and a devastating changeup, per scouting reports. His change is a true plus, or maybe plus plus, pitch. But the Rangers are reportedly going to move him back into the rotation, where he has mid-rotation upside. So he'll probably need to stay in the minors longer to develop his slider and command more.

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12-09-2012, 11:21 PM
  #686
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Phillies signed Zach Miner to a minor league deal, I think this could be one of those good minor league signings that RAJ has made that comes to help later in the season.

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Old
12-10-2012, 06:01 AM
  #687
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Wow you are clueless
Certainly possible. As I explained, I don't really understand these stats and the explanations as to how these stats are calculated is convoluted as best. I understand what they are saying they measure, that is not the difficult part. I don't know how they are calculated. I have read the explanations and still don't understand how they are calculated. For instance:

Quote:
Offensive players – Take wRAA, UBR, and UZR (which express offensive, base running, and defensive value in runs above average) and add them together. Add in a positional adjustment, since some positions are tougher to play than others, and then convert the numbers so that they’re not based on league average, but on replacement level (which is the value a team would lose if they had to replace that player with a “replacement” player – a minor leaguer or someone from the waiver wire). Convert the run value to wins (10 runs = 1 win) and voila, finished!
Thanks Fangraphs, but that does not offer any help.

Or this:

Quote:
There is no one way to determine WAR. There are hundreds of steps to make this calculation, and dozens of places where reasonable people can disagree on the best way to implement a particular part of the framework. We have taken the utmost care and study at each step in the process, and believe all of our choices are well reasoned and defensible. But WAR is necessarily an approximation and will never be as precise or accurate as one would like.
That explanation from Baseball-Reference actually does a pretty good job at saying it isn't a great way to calculate anything, but still doesn't say how it is calculated.

So yeah, I am clueless because I am not using a stat that doesn't really measure anything and no one really knows how to use it or come to a consensus on the formula, numbers, etc. That is way worse than defending it to the death because then people on the internet will think I am smart if do.

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12-10-2012, 07:37 AM
  #688
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Meh, I am not all that concerned about Young's fielding. He's not a good fielder. Fine. I am more interested in his bat.
That is true, I do believe the last season was a fluke at the plate, Young has always been a great hitter. Since you arent expecting much in the field, then you'll probably be fine

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12-10-2012, 08:23 AM
  #689
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
He was playing everyday (unless, of course, you're suggesting that not playing in the field somehow affected his bat despite '11 being 60 OPS points above his career average)... 159 in '11 and 156 in '12. Of that, he played 69 games at DH in '11 and 72 games at DH in '12. So, in actuality, his WAR was boosted by having just shy of half of his games not include his abysmal dWAR.

Thank you for giving me more ammo against him.
Except that's not how WAR is calculated, more specifically dWAR.


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12-10-2012, 10:33 AM
  #690
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Except that's not how WAR is calculated, more specifically dWAR.
What about GWAR?

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12-10-2012, 10:36 AM
  #691
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
What about GWAR?
I believe GWAR is calculated by spewing blood all over the crowd while playing guitar with no pants on. You must also be smashing everything around you to the point that you get banned from said venue.

On a more serious note. I am glad we picked up Michael Young. Not that I like his defense, but I think he can provide a good bat. Worst case scenario we just picked up a guy who can fill in when needed, play DH when possible, and provide a decent pinch hit. It didn't cost us too much so it is low risk.


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12-10-2012, 10:41 AM
  #692
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
What about GWAR?


I'm not a advanced stats guy, but if I were using them to support my position, I'd at least know how they were calculated.


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12-10-2012, 11:04 AM
  #693
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What I don't understand about your position is it's inconsistency. If you are a huge WAR guy, then I understand your apprehension about Young. However, you were equally critical of the Revere acquisition and his 2.4 WAR. At 24, without playing a full season, I'd expect someone of your stat geakiness to laud that move.... Or is it just convenient to measure the statistics that most appropriately apply to your argument?
Have I been hypercritical of Revere? I mean, I questioned the deal at face value and whether or not Gillies+Worley would have produced better value over Revere next year(which I think they would) and potentially going forward:

"Someone on another forum asked a very poignant question... if Revere had been a Phillies prospect coming through the system, would he have even gotten a serious look this ST? I still think Gillies could provide most of Revere will this upcoming season (in between hammy pulls, of course) offensively with better defense (actually has an arm) and better projected tools for the future."

I have also questioned the acuity of placing him in the leadoff spot (where he doesn't project well due to OBP issues throughout both his minor and major league career), but in the same breath lauded him as the perfect small ball 2-hole hitter:

"Everyone keeps plugging Revere in the leadoff slot, but he doesn't actually project there well with his mediocre OBP. Imo, his low K rates, insanely high GB%, elite speed and respectable AVG all point to him being the prototypical 2-hole hitter. He is going to put the ball in play more often than not (moving runners) and beat out DP throws (minimizing superfluous outs) - that is exactly what you want in that slot in a traditional lineup... he is Polanco-lite with (even) less power and more speed at the plate."

I then finished my commentary by speaking about his defensive defeciencies vs. strengths, which I doubt anyone would be able to disagree with... (I mean... his dWAR was only 0.5 last season with a >2:1 ratio of GP is RF vs. CF):

"Utley and Rollins are going to need to go 100ft into the outfield for Revere to hit the cut-off from the wall. He can't be a plus fielder with a noodle arm no matter what his range is."

As for his overall WAR, I don't believe I have ever commented. Though, I will say now that it is likely (obviously) heavily influenced by his SB numbers (close to a 80% career success rate, 10% over what you need to 'break even' in terms of value), but I am concerned that this stat didn't coorelate with higher runs scored (only 70 last year and 56 the year before in 553 and 450 ABs respectively) - though, of course, that is a team-influenced stat (though Minnesota was right in the middle of that pack last year - scoring 17 more than we did).

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12-10-2012, 11:20 AM
  #694
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Except that's not how WAR is calculated, more specifically dWAR.
Just because they are not direct input variables for one another does not mean that there isn't a very strong (and very obvious) correlation between the two. If you'd prefer, I'll amend my statement:

"So, in actuality, his WAR was supplemented by not having his defensive deficiencies (the severity of which can be approximated by his poor dWAR) considered in the calculation for those games in which he was at DH."

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12-10-2012, 11:23 AM
  #695
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Would anyone be opposed to Kyle Lohse?

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12-10-2012, 11:28 AM
  #696
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Would anyone be opposed to Kyle Lohse?
I'm not opposed to it, but I don't like the idea of giving him 3 years.

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12-10-2012, 11:33 AM
  #697
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Would anyone be opposed to Kyle Lohse?
I'd be fine with it had he not received a QO... we dodged a bullet saving our pick by avoiding bloated contracts to Bourn and Upton, it'd be crazy to just turn around and throw it away for a #3/4 starter, imo. He certainly isn't going to be getting a .272 ('11) or .267 ('12) BABIP with our defense behind him, either.

I'd be happiest with Ryan Dempster (have heard his name floated around), but if the Young "splash" is any indication then Ruben will be calling Derek Lowe's agent shortly so that he can 'excite' the fanbase with an easily recognized name.

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12-10-2012, 11:59 AM
  #698
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I'm not opposed to it, but I don't like the idea of giving him 3 years.
iirc, he's actually looking fir 4 years. I know one of the rumors was something like "The Red Sox would be interested if he would take a 3 year deal"

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12-10-2012, 12:08 PM
  #699
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Just because they are not direct input variables for one another does not mean that there isn't a very strong (and very obvious) correlation between the two. If you'd prefer, I'll amend my statement:

"So, in actuality, his WAR was supplemented by not having his defensive deficiencies (the severity of which can be approximated by his poor dWAR) considered in the calculation for those games in which he was at DH."
Being a DH does in fact negatively effect a players dWAR (as does being a 1b). There is a positional adjustment factored in. Being a DH has the most negative adjustment.

Baseballreference adjust DH at -15 runs, 1b at -10 runs
Fangraphs adjusts DH at -17.5 runs, 1b at -12.5 runs

Thus, your statement:

Quote:
He was playing everyday (unless, of course, you're suggesting that not playing in the field somehow affected his bat despite '11 being 60 OPS points above his career average)... 159 in '11 and 156 in '12. Of that, he played 69 games at DH in '11 and 72 games at DH in '12. So, in actuality, his WAR was boosted by having just shy of half of his games not include his abysmal dWAR.
is misinformed.

Just look at Edgar Martinez. The guy had a negative dWAR in 2002 and 2003 and never played an inning in the field. So no, DHing does not improve your dWAR.

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12-10-2012, 12:13 PM
  #700
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iirc, he's actually looking fir 4 years. I know one of the rumors was something like "The Red Sox would be interested if he would take a 3 year deal"
Exactly my point haha.

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