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Selšnne vs Modano

View Poll Results: Choose a player (all-time):
Teemu Ilmari Selšnne 136 89.47%
Michael Thomas Modano, Jr. 14 9.21%
I'm sorry I can't, they are way too close 2 1.32%
Voters: 152. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
12-09-2012, 06:31 PM
  #101
vadim sharifijanov
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Originally Posted by Kyle McMahon View Post
You're only looking at points though. Modano brought a lot more to the table in other areas than Selanne did during the late 90's/early 00's. I'd say Modano from 98-03 was the best stretch either player had, goal totals be damned. I said it previously, maybe even in this thread, that Selanne was in a perfect situation to go rack up points in the late 90's, while it was just the opposite for Modano under Hitchcock.
i agree to a point. but i don't think modano was as talented offensively as his tools indicated. great shot, amazing wheels, size, strength, the whole nine yards. but vision-wise, he wasn't on even turgeon's level, let alone selanne's level or, to make a contemporary example, a sedin level.

i think hitchcock was the best thing that happened to him. without hitchcock to push him, modano probably is lecavalier-- a disappointment. the tool box was ultimately best served to be the 80 points two-way beast that he was than the jeff carter it looked like he was on his way to becoming.

but the era also maximized his abilities. like, i wonder if bobby smith had peaked during the DPE whether he would be a borderline hall of famer case. obviously a big, strong two-way center is always going to be something teams want. but i think that kind of player thrived most during the DPE, with dinosaurs like derian hatcher and adam foote reigning over defensive zones, than any other era.

but long story short, i don't see modano peaking any higher than 100 points in a career year in another system. i don't think he had it in him to contend for scoring championships like selanne, even under the most optimal circumstances.

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Old
12-09-2012, 07:29 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Kyle McMahon View Post
You're only looking at points though. Modano brought a lot more to the table in other areas than Selanne did during the late 90's/early 00's. I'd say Modano from 98-03 was the best stretch either player had, goal totals be damned. I said it previously, maybe even in this thread, that Selanne was in a perfect situation to go rack up points in the late 90's, while it was just the opposite for Modano under Hitchcock.
I am taking two-way play into account as well. Modano was good defensively, but not otherworldly either. He still wasn't a Datsyuk in that regards. If you like talking about perfect storms then I don't think Modano could have had a more perfect storm than he had. Hitchcock comes in, shakes things up, a great team is built that relies heavily on the dead puck era. Hey, that's fine for them they won a Cup and they were going by the rules. But the Hart votes along show you how people viewed Selanne over Modano. The edge defensively doesn't make up for it in my opinion. Throw in the late career resurgence which was the opposite for Modano and I can't see how anyone puts Modano over Selanne.

You also have to take into account that Selanne was relied upon heavily to score on that team. No one else would do it other than Kariya, when he was healthy. That 1997-'98 season is perhaps his finest moment. He was all alone that year playing with scrubs. There was a time when you could have put Selanne a notch below Jagr. I don't think there was anytime when people thought Modano could even flirt with being the 2nd best player in the game.

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Old
12-09-2012, 11:02 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by the edler View Post
you can say this about sergei fedorov too, he only scored 100 two times, the next best season was 87 ... modano and fedorov were coached play so much defence in dallas and detroit that the offense suffered ... modano was a ppg player in the playoffs on a cup winning team while playing a lot of defense, and was conn smythe worthy
Fedorov was on pace for 100 in both 92-93 and 94-95. And Modano's defense was considerably overrated.

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Originally Posted by Regal View Post
Zetterberg frequently makes people's top 10 player lists due to his two way abilities and playoff numbers, whereas Kovalchuk is repeatedly criticized for being only a scorer and having no playoff success. While Kovalchuk with most likely go down as the better player all-time, a lot of people would take Zetterberg over him.
I haven't seen either of these things happening (Z on top-ten lists or Z over Kovalchuk) but since Z has entered the league, he's averaged a mere 8 fewer points per 82 games than Kovalchuk while playing Selke level defense compared to Kovalchuk's below average to average D. In the past three seasons, the gap has closed to four points.

But this comparison doesn't quite work out perfectly; Selanne is/has been better than Kovalchuk defensively, while Modano has NEVER been as good as Zetterberg defensively. It's a tighter scoring gap and a wider defensive gap. If you vote Kovalchuk, you have to vote Selanne. If you vote Modano, you have to vote Zetterberg. Voting Selanne or Zetterberg can go either way, of course.

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12-09-2012, 11:29 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
There was a time when you could have put Selanne a notch below Jagr.
In 1997-98, 22 of 53 voters put Selanne a notch above Jagr.


And re-reading this thread, it still irks me that people hold it against Selanne for playing injured from 2000-2004. It's as if he'd be respected more had he just not played hockey, because people feel the need to average a 52 Goals in 73 Games season with a 16 Goals in 78 Games season as if the number is going to mean anything to anybody. Don't give him any credit at all for San Jose and Colorado, but don't strip away what he did in Anaheim and on Team Finland because of it.

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Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
no team built around an elite scoring winger won anything in that era (case in point: jagr's pens when mario was out of the lineup). every team that won was either deep with two-way talent down the middle or had two giant centers (modano/nieuwendyk, arnott/holik, sakic/forsberg, fedorov/yzerman). so in those years, if your end goal is to win playoff rounds and not rack up hart nominations, i think yeah you could make a reasonable argument that you'd rather build your team around modano.
So Modano is better to build around because he was present on one of only four teams to actually accomplish something in those 9 years? It wasn't just Modano and Nieuwendyk; Dallas had Zubov, Hatcher, Lehtinen, and Belfour. It wasn't just Arnott and Holik; New Jersey had Stevens, Niedermayer, Elias, and Brodeur. It wasn't just Sakic and Forsberg; Colorado had Ozolinsh, Foote, Lemieux, and Roy. It wasn't just Fedorov and Yzerman; Detroit had Shanahan, Lidstrom, Murphy, and Chelios.

At any point from 1997-2000, an elite winger like Jaromir Jagr or Teemu Selanne or Paul Kariya would have been the best skater on these teams, but it takes more than one or two skaters to win a Stanley Cup; it takes a village. Who was the HOF defenseman for the Pittsburgh Penguins or the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim? Who was the HOF goaltender? Dallas, New Jersey, Colorado, and Detroit: They didn't just have two centers; they're the three best defensive teams and the team with the best playoff goaltender. Hell, New Jersey and Colorado both won without a #2 center, because of the defense and goaltending.

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Old
12-10-2012, 12:30 AM
  #105
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Selanne and it is not close at all.

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12-10-2012, 12:44 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Fedorov was on pace for 100 in both 92-93 and 94-95. And Modano's defense was considerably overrated.



I haven't seen either of these things happening (Z on top-ten lists or Z over Kovalchuk) but since Z has entered the league, he's averaged a mere 8 fewer points per 82 games than Kovalchuk while playing Selke level defense compared to Kovalchuk's below average to average D. In the past three seasons, the gap has closed to four points.

But this comparison doesn't quite work out perfectly; Selanne is/has been better than Kovalchuk defensively, while Modano has NEVER been as good as Zetterberg defensively. It's a tighter scoring gap and a wider defensive gap. If you vote Kovalchuk, you have to vote Selanne. If you vote Modano, you have to vote Zetterberg. Voting Selanne or Zetterberg can go either way, of course.
Is that really true? Not that Kovy's defense is much to talk about, but neither is Selšnne's.


Last edited by Eisen: 12-10-2012 at 01:23 AM.
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Old
12-10-2012, 01:12 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Eisen View Post
Is that really true? Not that Kovy's defense isn't much to talk about, but neither is Selšnne's.
I wouldn't write home about either one, defensively. Selanne was better offensively though - and yes, I have seen someone make that comparison on HOH before, and I still don't get it.

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Old
12-10-2012, 01:28 AM
  #108
vadim sharifijanov
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Originally Posted by quoipourquoi View Post

So Modano is better to build around because he was present on one of only four teams to actually accomplish something in those 9 years? It wasn't just Modano and Nieuwendyk; Dallas had Zubov, Hatcher, Lehtinen, and Belfour. It wasn't just Arnott and Holik; New Jersey had Stevens, Niedermayer, Elias, and Brodeur. It wasn't just Sakic and Forsberg; Colorado had Ozolinsh, Foote, Lemieux, and Roy. It wasn't just Fedorov and Yzerman; Detroit had Shanahan, Lidstrom, Murphy, and Chelios.

At any point from 1997-2000, an elite winger like Jaromir Jagr or Teemu Selanne or Paul Kariya would have been the best skater on these teams, but it takes more than one or two skaters to win a Stanley Cup; it takes a village. Who was the HOF defenseman for the Pittsburgh Penguins or the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim? Who was the HOF goaltender? Dallas, New Jersey, Colorado, and Detroit: They didn't just have two centers; they're the three best defensive teams and the team with the best playoff goaltender. Hell, New Jersey and Colorado both won without a #2 center, because of the defense and goaltending.
no. modano is better to build around because every relevant team had big or elite centers (or guys that were both) that you would have to shut down.

the DPE was a big centers arms race, which is why holik got that crazy contract. it was obviously an ill-advised signing, but it speaks to the severity of that arms race.

detroit had fedorov and yzerman.

colorado had sakic and forsberg.

new jersey had arnott and holik.

philadelphia had lindros and brind'amour/primeau/roenick

in the rangers' last relevant year they had messier and gretzky

toronto had sundin.

pittsburgh never got to the conference finals without mario.

the year carolina made the finals, it was francis and brind'amour.

the only team that consistently did anything without a big or elite center was buffalo, who happened to have hasek, the single most dominant player of that era.

whereas ottawa consistently underperforms with a team of elite wingers. pittsburgh doesn't get anywhere without mario. even with pronger and/or macinnis on the back end, st. louis consistently disappoints.

you needed a big modano type not only to power through the offensive zone with adam foote piggybacking you, but also because you need that big two-way horse in the middle to match up against sakic/forsberg or yzerman/fedorov. it was just the nature of the game at that time.

like, for example, take the same colorado teams but replace sakic and forsberg with kariya and selanne. or those wings teams with kariya and selanne instead of fedorov and yzerman. you can't tell me with a straight face that those teams would have won any cups. what are kariya and selanne going to against the real versions of colorado and detroit with their center depth? you can't just outscore those teams, you also have to contain them.

and i'm not even saying that in the DPE you have to go with modano over selanne. i'm just saying that in that particular era, there is an argument for it. in most other eras, i acknowledge that it's selanne all day, ever day.

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12-10-2012, 01:47 AM
  #109
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Selšnne.

Too bad I wasn't the 100th pro Selšnne voter *hint hint*

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12-10-2012, 02:22 AM
  #110
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i agree with vadim sharifijanov and big phil here.

i don't think modano was ever at the offensive level of elite offensive F's, and i don't think it was b/c of dallas' style of play. even when games were more open in earlier '90s, modano was not so close to selanne's offensive ability.

i thnk selanne was probably hurt more by his very weak supporting cast than helped by having basically no competition for offensive situations. it certainly hurt him a lot in the playoffs, and in qualifying for the playoffs. i remember selanne in the debate about best player much more than modano.

a player like modano who can score 80p and successfully check the opposition's best unit may be as valuable as a 100p player, and i think modano in dallas was better defensively than sakic and forsberg and yzerman, but i also think playing between the lockouts, under hitchcock, with that defensive support, was more or less an ideal situation for a 2 way C, and that if modano had played for hartford/carolina, for example, he would probably be viewed quite differently.


basically, i think more players could do what modano did in dallas than could do what selanne did in anaheim.

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12-10-2012, 03:30 AM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
like, for example, take the same colorado teams but replace sakic and forsberg with kariya and selanne. or those wings teams with kariya and selanne instead of fedorov and yzerman. you can't tell me with a straight face that those teams would have won any cups.
Well that's not really fair. You're asking me to replace one position with another, in essence giving Colorado or Detroit only two centers and an excess of two wingers, meaning someone is playing against their strength - which is something Colorado or Detroit would have addressed with a deadline deal (like shipping out Deadmarsh instead of Rolston, for example). But I'll bite for the Bourque years.

2000 Colorado Avalanche
Kariya-Drury-Selanne
Andreychuk-Tanguay-Hejduk
Podein-Yelle-Messier
Nieminen-Reid-Deadmarsh
Bourque-Foote
Ozolinsh-Miller
Klemm-Skoula
Roy

Now you tell me: Don't you think that this team stands a better chance than the actual Mighty Ducks of Anaheim? The ones without the defensemen and HOF goaltending? Because it's just not fair to pin this on the star wingers of the Anaheims and Pittsburghs of the league who not only lacked centers but those positions as well. Though now that I think about it, the Mighty Ducks were 40 minutes away from winning a Stanley Cup without Selanne and legitimate #1 centers and defensemen too...

Or how about we look at the next year's Avalanche. You know, the ones who didn't have Forsberg for the last two rounds and saw Sakic miss much of Round 2 with a separated shoulder and still won:

2001 Colorado Avalanche
Kariya-Tanguay-Selanne
Nieminen-Drury-Hejduk
Podein-Yelle-Messier
Reid-Reinprecht-Hinote
Bourque-Foote
Klemm-Blake
de Vries-Skoula
Roy

Improved second-line offensive depth because Hejduk can drop down instead of Hinote moving up to cover Forsberg's absence, and Tanguay shifts back to the position he originally played.

So this is my straight face: Kariya and Selanne for Sakic and Forsberg in 2001? With Sakic missing a decent chunk of the LA series (and playing ineffectively in the rest) and Forsberg missing the final two series, it's practically a one-for-two trade outside that Vancouver series. The Colorado Avalanche win the Stanley Cup; it's just Roy or Kariya handing it off to Bourque instead of Sakic. Or we could just put a Bourque, a Roy, a Lidstrom, a Brodeur, a Stevens, or a Belfour on Anaheim and Pittsburgh and not expect the wingers to save the day with three or four goals every night.

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Old
12-10-2012, 04:24 AM
  #112
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Selanne's playoff record really holds him back from being higher, which makes it close vs. Modano.

Post-expansion HOF forwards should be able to hit one of these marks:

- more than 10 playoff series won
- over .500 win% in playoff series
- 100+ playoff points
- PPG+ in playoffs

Yet these are among the players who haven't hit any of these:

Dionne, Turgeon, Mogilny, Selanne, Kariya, Naslund, Iginla, Thornton, Kovalchuk, the Sedins

Amazingly, those 11 forwards have averaged less than: 65 playoff points, .78 playoff PPG, 6 series victories, and a 40% win% in playoff series. They averaged more than PPG in only 18 out of 98 playoffs.


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 12-10-2012 at 04:36 AM. Reason: added Naslund
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12-10-2012, 04:28 AM
  #113
KEEROLE Vatanen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Selanne's playoff record really holds him back from being higher, which makes it close vs. Modano.

Post-expansion HOF forwards should be able to hit one of these marks:

- more than 10 playoff series won
- over .500 win% in playoff series
- 100+ playoff points
- PPG+ in playoffs

Yet these are among the players who haven't hit any of these:

Dionne, Turgeon, Mogilny, Selanne, Kariya, Iginla, Thornton, Kovalchuk, the Sedins

Amazingly, those 8 forwards have averaged less than 65 playoff points, .78 playoff PPG, 6 series victories, and a 40% win% in playoff series.
how many times was Selanne ever on a good team in the playoffs? and how many of those times was it on 1 leg?

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12-10-2012, 04:40 AM
  #114
Czech Your Math
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how many times was Selanne ever on a good team in the playoffs? and how many of those times was it on 1 leg?
I'm a fan of Teemu and he's often been very good on international ice, but it's difficult to defend his playoff record. He did play on some weak teams in his prime and I'm sure he played through injuries, like most players do in the playoffs, but you'd still expect better from him and the rest of the players on that list.

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12-10-2012, 05:31 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
I'm a fan of Teemu and he's often been very good on international ice, but it's difficult to defend his playoff record. He did play on some weak teams in his prime and I'm sure he played through injuries, like most players do in the playoffs, but you'd still expect better from him and the rest of the players on that list.
Here's his playoff record from the seven seasons when he was a Top-10 scorer:

27 GP, 19 G, 8 A, 27 PTS


Here's his playoff record from the three seasons he was an 11-20 scorer:

37 GP, 11 G, 18 A, 29 PTS


Here's his playoff record from the eight seasons he was a below point-per-game player:

47 GP, 11 G, 12 A, 23 PTS



Nothing out of the ordinary here, so long as you remember what kind of player he was at the time he was playing each playoff round.

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12-10-2012, 12:49 PM
  #116
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Nothing out of the ordinary here, so long as you remember what kind of player he was at the time he was playing each playoff round.
That's the main concern... nothing out of the ordinary... when he's been quite an extraordinary player.

Here's how some of the players previously mentioned have performed vs. what would be expected based on their regular season GPG & PPG each season they were in the playoffs. Ordinary would probably be ~5-15% decrease (85-95% of expected):

PLAYER, GPG, PPG
-------------------------
Iginla 103%, 90%
Turgeon 77%, 83%
H. Sedin 115%, 82%
Kariya 87%, 77%
D. Sedin 68%, 74%
Thornton 63%, 74%
Selanne 74%, 70%
Dionne 73%, 65%

Generally, the higher the starting levels and the worse the player's teams were, the more decreased one would expect. However, a decrease of over 25% is hard to ignore and difficult to attribute to just those factors. Modano was 89%/92%, which is about what one would expect given that it's more difficult to score points in the playoffs.


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 12-10-2012 at 01:04 PM.
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12-10-2012, 01:09 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Selanne's playoff record really holds him back from being higher, which makes it close vs. Modano.

Post-expansion HOF forwards should be able to hit one of these marks:

- more than 10 playoff series won
- over .500 win% in playoff series
- 100+ playoff points
- PPG+ in playoffs

Yet these are among the players who haven't hit any of these:

Dionne, Turgeon, Mogilny, Selanne, Kariya, Naslund, Iginla, Thornton, Kovalchuk, the Sedins

Amazingly, those 11 forwards have averaged less than: 65 playoff points, .78 playoff PPG, 6 series victories, and a 40% win% in playoff series. They averaged more than PPG in only 18 out of 98 playoffs.
i agree that all of those guys have playoff resumes that leave you wanting more, given their regular season statures. but at least for the guys on that list who peaked during the DPE, i think it's a little much to ask for PPG+ in the playoffs. i mean, even fedorov doesn't have that.

likewise, 100+ playoff points. pavel datsyuk, a year older the the sedins, has been on the most consistently competitive playoff team since the turn of the millennium and he hasn't yet hit 100 playoff points.

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12-10-2012, 01:28 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
i agree that all of those guys have playoff resumes that leave you wanting more, given their regular season statures. but at least for the guys on that list who peaked during the DPE, i think it's a little much to ask for PPG+ in the playoffs. i mean, even fedorov doesn't have that.

likewise, 100+ playoff points. pavel datsyuk, a year older the the sedins, has been on the most consistently competitive playoff team since the turn of the millennium and he hasn't yet hit 100 playoff points.
I don't think 100 PO points is a very accurate measurement in general.
I mean, here's the list of guys with 100 PO points since 2000...

Elias GP-143 P-114 PpG-0.80
Briere GP-108 P-109 PpG-1.01
Lidstrom GP-149 P-106 PpG-0.71
Zetterberg GP-109 P-102 PpG-0.94
Rafalski GP-165 P-100 PpG-0.61
--------------------------------
Gomez GP-140 P-99 PpG-0.71
Pronger GP-131 P-98 PpG-0.75

And Briere is the only player that has 100 or more PO points since the lockout.

Only 5 players with 100 or more PO points in 12 seasons.
Yet looking at only the 10 years from '90-'99 there are 10 players with 100 or more PO points.


Last edited by Rhiessan71: 12-10-2012 at 01:33 PM.
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12-10-2012, 05:49 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
i agree that all of those guys have playoff resumes that leave you wanting more, given their regular season statures. but at least for the guys on that list who peaked during the DPE, i think it's a little much to ask for PPG+ in the playoffs. i mean, even fedorov doesn't have that.

likewise, 100+ playoff points. pavel datsyuk, a year older the the sedins, has been on the most consistently competitive playoff team since the turn of the millennium and he hasn't yet hit 100 playoff points.
Those may seem like lofty standards over the past 20 years, but it's not like they're minimum criteria for the HOF. I'm just saying you'd expect a HOF forward to accomplish either of those... or that his PPG at least doesn't decrease substantially (more than 10% or so)... or that they have a high proportion of playoffs where they scored > PPG (close to half). Most of those players listed weren't really close to hitting any of the individual marks. Turgeon has 97 PO points, Thornton is next with 87 (so he might at least hit 100... after a long career on mostly good teams)... Dionne has the best PPG at .92, followed by Iginla at .91 and Turgeon at .89. Selanne actually has the best results of the group, with 10 series victories (9 after age 30) which is tied with Mogilny.

What helps negate the effect of these metrics are a couple instances where the player turns around the series on their own, or is particularly valuable during a series or playoff run. I just don't remember much of that with Selanne. What have been the signature playoff moments or series for him? 8 points in 7 games to get he and the Ducks their first series victories, vs. Phoenix in '97? Goals in 3 of the last 4 games and single points in 6/7 games vs. Calgary in '06? I think it's probably his 6 points in the last 3 games vs. Detroit in the '07 WCF, to overcome a 2-1 deficit in the series. The last one is particularly important, as it was against a strong Detroit team and on the way to a Cup, but I guess I'd just expect there would be more dominating performances from such an outstanding player.

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12-10-2012, 06:17 PM
  #120
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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
I am taking two-way play into account as well. Modano was good defensively, but not otherworldly either. He still wasn't a Datsyuk in that regards. If you like talking about perfect storms then I don't think Modano could have had a more perfect storm than he had. Hitchcock comes in, shakes things up, a great team is built that relies heavily on the dead puck era. Hey, that's fine for them they won a Cup and they were going by the rules. But the Hart votes along show you how people viewed Selanne over Modano. The edge defensively doesn't make up for it in my opinion. Throw in the late career resurgence which was the opposite for Modano and I can't see how anyone puts Modano over Selanne.

You also have to take into account that Selanne was relied upon heavily to score on that team. No one else would do it other than Kariya, when he was healthy. That 1997-'98 season is perhaps his finest moment. He was all alone that year playing with scrubs. There was a time when you could have put Selanne a notch below Jagr. I don't think there was anytime when people thought Modano could even flirt with being the 2nd best player in the game.
I'd be cautious with the Hart votes. A great player on an otherwise lousy team is going to have an easier time standing out as an MVP than a player like Modano, who has other good players on his team.

Modano was definitely in the perfect situation under Hitchcock, but I don't see why he should be punished for that. He took the role and ran with it, winning a Stanley Cup.

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12-10-2012, 09:15 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Kyle McMahon View Post
I'd be cautious with the Hart votes. A great player on an otherwise lousy team is going to have an easier time standing out as an MVP than a player like Modano, who has other good players on his team.

Modano was definitely in the perfect situation under Hitchcock, but I don't see why he should be punished for that. He took the role and ran with it, winning a Stanley Cup.
He shouldn't be punished for it at all. As for the Hart votes, I think it is harder to get them on a lousy team than a great team. Selanne was on a lousy team and did very well. The voters also take into consideration how well the team did in the standings, which hurt Selanne, yet he still has a distinct advantage over Modano.

And let's remember, they both won a Cup. Selanne's came later. I think we forget that Selanne sort of redeemed himself post lockout in the playoffs. I would say Modano's 1999 Cup run trumps Selanne's in 2007 but at least Selanne also had some Conn Smythe talk surrounding him, like Modano. I don't think Modano's playoff edge makes up for their overall careers.

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12-10-2012, 10:43 PM
  #122
Kyle McMahon
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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
He shouldn't be punished for it at all. As for the Hart votes, I think it is harder to get them on a lousy team than a great team. Selanne was on a lousy team and did very well. The voters also take into consideration how well the team did in the standings, which hurt Selanne, yet he still has a distinct advantage over Modano.
Lets be fair, the Ducks weren't a downright lousy team for most of Selanne's time there. They generally were a .500 team. I agree, being on a better team does tend to help, but it's not like he was stuck on a total cellar dweller.

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And let's remember, they both won a Cup. Selanne's came later. I think we forget that Selanne sort of redeemed himself post lockout in the playoffs. I would say Modano's 1999 Cup run trumps Selanne's in 2007 but at least Selanne also had some Conn Smythe talk surrounding him, like Modano. I don't think Modano's playoff edge makes up for their overall careers.
I definitely don't recall this. Selanne's goal production dropped sharply as compared to the regular season. Certainly Niedermayer, Pronger, Giguere, and Pahlsson were ahead of him in Smythe consideration. Beachemin, Getzlaf, and McDonald could have been ahead of him as well.

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12-11-2012, 12:16 AM
  #123
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
That's the main concern... nothing out of the ordinary... when he's been quite an extraordinary player.

Here's how some of the players previously mentioned have performed vs. what would be expected based on their regular season GPG & PPG each season they were in the playoffs. Ordinary would probably be ~5-15% decrease (85-95% of expected):

PLAYER, GPG, PPG
-------------------------
Iginla 103%, 90%
Turgeon 77%, 83%
H. Sedin 115%, 82%
Kariya 87%, 77%
D. Sedin 68%, 74%
Thornton 63%, 74%
Selanne 74%, 70%
Dionne 73%, 65%

Generally, the higher the starting levels and the worse the player's teams were, the more decreased one would expect. However, a decrease of over 25% is hard to ignore and difficult to attribute to just those factors. Modano was 89%/92%, which is about what one would expect given that it's more difficult to score points in the playoffs.
But you're only looking at career season numbers vs. career playoff numbers. Selanne spent 40.3% of his regular season games as a Top-10 regular season scorer, but only 24.3% of his playoff games as a Top-10 regular season scorer. It's obvious why his drop is severe if you're mindful of when he was recording the playoff GP.

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i agree that all of those guys have playoff resumes that leave you wanting more, given their regular season statures. but at least for the guys on that list who peaked during the DPE, i think it's a little much to ask for PPG+ in the playoffs. i mean, even fedorov doesn't have that.
I think only 19 forwards have maintained a higher than PPG average in the playoffs since expansion after recording a full season's worth of games. Even a guy like Jagr is one lengthy run from Dallas from being in danger of falling off himself. But when Selanne was a top-10 scorer, he maintained a PPG average - and that's without ever having the luxury of beating up on an inferior team for some easy points. Probably the easiest series of his life was one of the ones against Minnesota or Vancouver - who in terms of defense and goaltending were probably the two best defensive teams in the league. And as good as he was in 2007, it's not like that's one of his top regular seasons either.

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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
I just don't remember much of that with Selanne. What have been the signature playoff moments or series for him? 8 points in 7 games to get he and the Ducks their first series victories, vs. Phoenix in '97? Goals in 3 of the last 4 games and single points in 6/7 games vs. Calgary in '06? I think it's probably his 6 points in the last 3 games vs. Detroit in the '07 WCF, to overcome a 2-1 deficit in the series. The last one is particularly important, as it was against a strong Detroit team and on the way to a Cup, but I guess I'd just expect there would be more dominating performances from such an outstanding player.
Two overtime games come to mind: The first was a tape-to-tape lob pass from his own blue-line to a streaking Paul Kariya that won Game 6 and forced Game 7 (Phoenix 1997). The second is the OT goal against Detroit. And don't underrate what he did in the series against Calgary. Game 6 saw the Ducks down by a goal, and Selanne roofed a backhand to tie the game. The referees called goaltender interference in a bogus call with which no one agreed, so Selanne went out and scored another goal to tie it.

His most famous playoff game was actually his first home game in the playoffs though:




I don't see why the fact that he led two of the first three best-on-best Olympics in scoring gets brushed off though. I know you know about it, but still, some people act like he couldn't perform under pressure, when it's really only a case of him recording so much of his playoff GP outside of his best years. I mean, he led the 2006 Mighty Ducks in playoff scoring and finished second on the Ducks in 2007 - those were the only two runs he had.

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Originally Posted by Kyle McMahon View Post
I'd be cautious with the Hart votes. A great player on an otherwise lousy team is going to have an easier time standing out as an MVP than a player like Modano, who has other good players on his team.
You think Selanne had an easier time standing out when he was playing with Paul Kariya? Up until 2005-06, people thought Kariya stirred the drink. I mean, would a player placing #2/#2 in goals and points typically finish fifth in Hart voting? How about when they finish #1/#2 in goals and points and finish fifth again? Selanne is underrated by his Hart voting record. We saw in 1997-98 that he was capable of the same #1/#2 finishes (until he sat out the remainder of the season with injury and was passed up by six players) without Kariya, and that was the only time he was recognized. So no, I don't think there's any reason to believe he had an easier time standing out than Modano, because while Modano had a greater number of elite teammates, Selanne and Kariya were the #2 and #3 skaters in the world.

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Originally Posted by Kyle McMahon View Post
Lets be fair, the Ducks weren't a downright lousy team for most of Selanne's time there. They generally were a .500 team. I agree, being on a better team does tend to help, but it's not like he was stuck on a total cellar dweller.
They would have been a cellar dweller without him. Look at 1996:

He joins the Mighty Ducks when they're 18-30-5 (dead last in the West the year before) and the team goes 17-9-3 the rest of the way. In fact, they only miss the playoffs because they have to chase down the team he played for at the beginning of the year! #4 seed the next year, with him playing all the way. They were lousy.

Mighty Ducks Goal Differential (Selanne's +/-)
1997: +12 (Selanne: +28)
1998: -56 (Selanne: +12)
1999: +9 (Selanne: +18)
2000: -10 (Selanne: +6)

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12-11-2012, 02:17 AM
  #124
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Those may seem like lofty standards over the past 20 years, but it's not like they're minimum criteria for the HOF. I'm just saying you'd expect a HOF forward to accomplish either of those... or that his PPG at least doesn't decrease substantially (more than 10% or so)... or that they have a high proportion of playoffs where they scored > PPG (close to half). Most of those players listed weren't really close to hitting any of the individual marks. Turgeon has 97 PO points, Thornton is next with 87 (so he might at least hit 100... after a long career on mostly good teams)... Dionne has the best PPG at .92, followed by Iginla at .91 and Turgeon at .89. Selanne actually has the best results of the group, with 10 series victories (9 after age 30) which is tied with Mogilny.

What helps negate the effect of these metrics are a couple instances where the player turns around the series on their own, or is particularly valuable during a series or playoff run. I just don't remember much of that with Selanne. What have been the signature playoff moments or series for him? 8 points in 7 games to get he and the Ducks their first series victories, vs. Phoenix in '97? Goals in 3 of the last 4 games and single points in 6/7 games vs. Calgary in '06? I think it's probably his 6 points in the last 3 games vs. Detroit in the '07 WCF, to overcome a 2-1 deficit in the series. The last one is particularly important, as it was against a strong Detroit team and on the way to a Cup, but I guess I'd just expect there would be more dominating performances from such an outstanding player.
This. In that series Selanne scored one of the most important goals in that cup run.

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12-11-2012, 04:53 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by Kyle McMahon View Post
Lets be fair, the Ducks weren't a downright lousy team for most of Selanne's time there. They generally were a .500 team. I agree, being on a better team does tend to help, but it's not like he was stuck on a total cellar dweller.

I definitely don't recall this. Selanne's goal production dropped sharply as compared to the regular season. Certainly Niedermayer, Pronger, Giguere, and Pahlsson were ahead of him in Smythe consideration. Beachemin, Getzlaf, and McDonald could have been ahead of him as well.
You can call the Ducks "mediocre" at that time for sure. It's hard to garner Hart votes when part of the process involves how well the team did with you. I think it goes to show you just how revered Selanne was at that time in the NHL that he received such great Hart consideration despite not being on an elite team.

As for the 2007 Cup run. Sure, there were lots of Ducks that played well. 2007 was a weird year, you could have even given it to Alfredsson on the Sens. But Selanne was certainly part of a melting pot of Duck players that played around the same level. Personally I would have given it to Pronger but Selanne scored the most important goal in Ducks' history.

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