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D Seth Jones - Portland Winterhawks (2013 Draft)

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Old
12-09-2012, 06:34 PM
  #651
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Originally Posted by weems View Post
I hate when people bring this up. Erik Johnson was a different player before his knee injury and the player you see today isnt the player he was when he stepped into the NHL and put up 33pts in less then 70 games as a rookie and had people saying he was a future Norris winner. It's easy in hindsight to say something like you are but the guy had a injury that some guys come back 100% but some others dont and Johnson has just never been as explosive since.

I somewhat agree that Jones is still raw in some aspects but his hockeysense is actually decent and hes already producing at a elite point pace. For me Jones easily has the most exciting skillset in the draft because its not everyday you find a guy with his size/frame, skating ability and hockeysense. I get the quote about him maybe being more of a "athlete" right now then a hockey player but because he thinks the game very well I'm not really that concerned and feel he will develop quite nicely.
Hmmmm Johnson's knee looks fine to me. He is one of the best skaters on the Avalanche. It's the mental edge that has come slowly.

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12-09-2012, 07:00 PM
  #652
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Originally Posted by Xokkeu View Post
Who the heck were you watching in that game that's Top ten potential?
I don't get to choose which games are broadcast or available online. The point is more that I watch whatever hockey I can get my hands on regardless, so my viewership is far from limited to the local Halifax region. I was most interested in Kerdiles, though.

edit: And I forgot to mention last night that I also found out that the Portland Winterhawks' Nic Petan has an older brother playing at Michigan Tech, which makes an interesting tie-in.


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12-09-2012, 07:36 PM
  #653
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Originally Posted by weems View Post
I hate when people bring this up. Erik Johnson was a different player before his knee injury and the player you see today isnt the player he was when he stepped into the NHL and put up 33pts in less then 70 games as a rookie and had people saying he was a future Norris winner. It's easy in hindsight to say something like you are but the guy had a injury that some guys come back 100% but some others dont and Johnson has just never been as explosive since.
Not to knock Johnson specifically (I think most teams who have taken defensemen 1st overall in the past would take a "do over" if afforded the luxury of hindsight - Hamrlik and Potvin, I'd argue, being two of the few exceptions), but I don't think it's his skating that has disappointed anyone since going 1st overall.

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Originally Posted by weems View Post
I somewhat agree that Jones is still raw in some aspects but his hockeysense is actually decent and hes already producing at a elite point pace. For me Jones easily has the most exciting skillset in the draft because its not everyday you find a guy with his size/frame, skating ability and hockeysense. I get the quote about him maybe being more of a "athlete" right now then a hockey player but because he thinks the game very well I'm not really that concerned and feel he will develop quite nicely.
Look, let's be clear here and point out that we're not debating his potential to develop into an NHLer here. He enters some people's conversation for 1st overall, so benefit of the doubt on that level is pretty much earned. We're talking about the 1st overall pick in a draft year deep with top-end forwards. Size, athleticism, and solid play gets you a lot farther at an earlier age in junior than it does in the NHL, so without seeing more polish displayed while also handling more responsibility, I'm on the skeptical side of his "suitability" as a contender for the top pick, honestly. It's just a matter of "value" that you have to expect on the other end. When you consider MacKinnon, Barkov, even Drouin and Monahan... Admittedly I've seen relatively little of Jones, though, and it's not like the WJC is his first and only chance on a big stage before draft day, either. It's not like I'm decided for good on him or anything.

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12-09-2012, 08:04 PM
  #654
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Originally Posted by islandermaniac View Post
have you seen him play? the poster you responded to watches a lot of whl games. i'm betting you don't.
The guy (sorry, internet legend) made it sound like he was watching a combination of Brad Marsh and Eric Cairns out there. I merely pointed out he was +2 (the only one on his team) in a game that they outshot Tri-City 46 to 13 (so obviously the Portland goalie wasn't bailing Jones out when he made these egregious turnovers). I only listened to the game on KPAM, so maybe the PBP guy was sugarcoating things for his hometown audience when he failed to once mention said egregious turnovers.

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12-09-2012, 08:18 PM
  #655
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Not really, because it's possible that the coach is using that player in a more offensive role. If he has a pairing that he always sends out for defensive zone faceoffs, a pairing that is used in a more balanced method and then an offensive pairing, the offensive pairing will have a better +/- even if the shutdown pairing is providing a larger swing goals differential.
Exactly 1st pairing defensive matchups against the other teams top line matters so while plus/minus isn't a great stat on it's own, it can be use full along with other information.

Seth Jones is a dominating force on the back end and I expect him to have a great WJC.

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12-09-2012, 10:20 PM
  #656
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Not to knock Johnson specifically (I think most teams who have taken defensemen 1st overall in the past would take a "do over" if afforded the luxury of hindsight - Hamrlik and Potvin, I'd argue, being two of the few exceptions), but I don't think it's his skating that has disappointed anyone since going 1st overall.



Look, let's be clear here and point out that we're not debating his potential to develop into an NHLer here. He enters some people's conversation for 1st overall, so benefit of the doubt on that level is pretty much earned. We're talking about the 1st overall pick in a draft year deep with top-end forwards. Size, athleticism, and solid play gets you a lot farther at an earlier age in junior than it does in the NHL, so without seeing more polish displayed while also handling more responsibility, I'm on the skeptical side of his "suitability" as a contender for the top pick, honestly. It's just a matter of "value" that you have to expect on the other end. When you consider MacKinnon, Barkov, even Drouin and Monahan... Admittedly I've seen relatively little of Jones, though, and it's not like the WJC is his first and only chance on a big stage before draft day, either. It's not like I'm decided for good on him or anything.
I'm not saying hes gone from a great skater to a poor one but he doesnt look nearly as powerfull or explosive as he was in college or his first season in the league. It also could be a combination of that but also not having the confidence in himself to make the plays he used too and put his body in danger. Whatever the case is he looked like a future beast after his first 70 games in the league and I think its a little unfair to use him as some benchmark of failed all around defensmen who went #1 who didnt turn out because I really believe he hasnt been the same since the injury and we dont know how he would have developed if that never happened.

Sure size, athleticism and solid play gets you further at lower levels but the draft is also about projecting what a player will become 5-7 years down the road not whos the best player at age 17-18. You look at a players full skillset and project what kind of player they can turn into with added strength and maturity. To me this is where Jones is such a exciting prospect. To think of him as a 6"4, 225lb extremely mobile 2 way defensemen is very exciting. I would be more worried about what your arguing if when I watched him he had poor hockeysense or didnt really know how to read the game but I havent really seen that with Jones.

Everytime I watch him play he reminds me of Pietrangelo.

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12-09-2012, 10:23 PM
  #657
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Jones with a goal and assist tonight.

Now 28pts in 30 games and tied for 3rd overall in pts by defensemen with Morgan Rielly.

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12-09-2012, 11:10 PM
  #658
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Originally Posted by weems View Post
Jones with a goal and assist tonight.

Now 28pts in 30 games and tied for 3rd overall in pts by defensemen with Morgan Rielly.
This will put the stats compiler to rest.

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Old
12-10-2012, 01:03 PM
  #659
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Who is the best comparison for Jones? Larry Robinson perhaps?

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12-10-2012, 01:26 PM
  #660
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I think Pietrangelo is a fair comparison in today's NHL, though I think Jones is quite a bit better than Alex was at this age.

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12-10-2012, 01:41 PM
  #661
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Originally Posted by Ashasx View Post
I think Pietrangelo is a fair comparison in today's NHL, though I think Jones is quite a bit better than Alex was at this age.
More offensive acumen IMO. Pietrangelo was taking his time due to his offense wasn't coming out as many predicted.

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12-10-2012, 02:37 PM
  #662
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Is Jones better than Doughty was at his age?

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Old
12-10-2012, 05:12 PM
  #663
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Originally Posted by Leaf Rocket View Post
More offensive acumen IMO. Pietrangelo was taking his time due to his offense wasn't coming out as many predicted.
Don't know about that. Same age comparison (18 at "start" of the regular season):

Pietrangelo: 8 goals, 29 pts in 36 games on a conference 7th out of 10 team
Jones: 7 goals, 20 points in 26 games on a 1st place team

That's pretty similar in terms of numbers (everything considered), and Pietrangelo actually had better numbers the year before (to cover the October vs January birthday thing). The "taking his time" was at the NHL level more so than the junior level. He had 58 pts in 61 OHL games (and 12 more in 6 WJC games) around his 3 pts in 17 NHL game initiation. I think Pietrangelo is easily more skilled than Jones, but that doesn't guarantee he proves to be the more effective guy years later in hindsight. I personally wouldn't bank on Jones being better than Pietrangelo in the long term, but hey, it's possible.

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12-10-2012, 05:48 PM
  #664
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I really like the Pietrangelo comparison and have been throwing it out for a few months now. I would agree that Pietrangelo is prolly the more naturally gifted player but Jones skillset and upside might be higher especially when you factor in the defensive side. When I watch Jones it looks like a guy whos insanely gifted but also extremely raw at the same time and thats almost the most exciting part. I think hes the best prospect in the draft even tho he isnt the best player today in the draft.

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Old
12-10-2012, 06:20 PM
  #665
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Originally Posted by weems View Post
I really like the Pietrangelo comparison and have been throwing it out for a few months now. I would agree that Pietrangelo is prolly the more naturally gifted player but Jones skillset and upside might be higher especially when you factor in the defensive side. When I watch Jones it looks like a guy whos insanely gifted but also extremely raw at the same time and thats almost the most exciting part. I think hes the best prospect in the draft even tho he isnt the best player today in the draft.
I think the defensive side is where he has the most potential actually - and possibly more than pretty much all of his draft competition - for semi-obvious reasons. The problem I have in pegging his upside higher is because I think the weaker (it's all relative) parts of his game are the kinds of things that are most affected by the adjustment to the NHL game from junior, and might reduce him to "ordinary" offensively. Size and athleticism can get you pretty far, but your execution gets tested when there's less space and time to make decisions/plays against bigger/faster players. Maybe if he looked more sure with the puck on his stick, or pulled off more than just the "safe/smart" play in a secondary role that I've been witness to, I'd feel differently. To this point, though, the only "elite" potential I've seen is on the defensive side. Having said that, I think we can all agree that he's far from a finished project at this point.

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12-10-2012, 11:22 PM
  #666
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
That's pretty similar in terms of numbers (everything considered), and Pietrangelo actually had better numbers the year before (to cover the October vs January birthday thing).
Except the most important fact: This is Jones' first season in the WHL. Pietrangelo had a year of experience in the OHL already when his draft year came around. It makes all the difference.

Jones has more skill than you give him credit for. You're comparing numbers from his first games in the league where he was adjusting and still reserved when jumping into the play. He's since adjusted and his numbers have reflected that.

I find it funny that it's always the people who are geographically farthest away from the players that are the most critical of their play.

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12-10-2012, 11:46 PM
  #667
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Except the most important fact: This is Jones' first season in the WHL. Pietrangelo had a year of experience in the OHL already when his draft year came around. It makes all the difference.

Jones has more skill than you give him credit for. You're comparing numbers from his first games in the league where he was adjusting and still reserved when jumping into the play. He's since adjusted and his numbers have reflected that.

I find it funny that it's always the people who are geographically farthest away from the players that are the most critical of their play.
Well, actually, I've spent most of the thread without referring to stats at all - just observation. It only made sense to refer to offensive numbers at that point because of the introduction of the idea of "offensive acumen". People farthest away geographically also have an easier time avoiding the Kool-aid in the water supply, btw. But backing up, how little skill do you think I'm giving him credit for? Does my not considering him the best choice for 1st overall somehow equate to under-rating him?

Also, Jones played a 50+ game schedule with the US Development squad and 20 more games in USHL matches last year. How different is that, really, from 60 games in the OHL? Jones probably ended up with more experience against older and stronger players in the process given games against NCAA opponents, and how do we then weigh/compare how their environments may or may not have contributed to the strengths in their game today - if one is supposed to be deemed advantageous over the other?

But rest assured, if he has made as significant an improvement as you suggest, I won't turn a blind eye to it.

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12-11-2012, 03:51 PM
  #668
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Well, actually, I've spent most of the thread without referring to stats at all - just observation. It only made sense to refer to offensive numbers at that point because of the introduction of the idea of "offensive acumen". People farthest away geographically also have an easier time avoiding the Kool-aid in the water supply, btw. But backing up, how little skill do you think I'm giving him credit for? Does my not considering him the best choice for 1st overall somehow equate to under-rating him?
You've admittedly seen very little of him and what you have are most likely internet streams. Yet you talk about certain abilities like execution. The lack of this ability suggest he has miscues when making passes or plays, particularly offensively. I've not seen many miscues, in fact, quite the opposite. His execution on the offensive has been fantastic, partly due to his skill, partly due to his IQ. He's made some pro-caliber plays that you just know he had predetermined because he executed them quickly and efficiently. He makes passes that he knew to make before he even receives the puck. That's the type of stuff you look for -- thinking ahead and executing the play quickly. Which he does quite well and you're the first to suggest execution is a weakness of his.
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Also, Jones played a 50+ game schedule with the US Development squad and 20 more games in USHL matches last year. How different is that, really, from 60 games in the OHL? Jones probably ended up with more experience against older and stronger players in the process given games against NCAA opponents, and how do we then weigh/compare how their environments may or may not have contributed to the strengths in their game today - if one is supposed to be deemed advantageous over the other?
Coming from someone who used to live in Ann Arbor and watched a lot of those games in the past and now lives on the West Coast and sees a lot of WHL games -- no comparison. The WHL is tougher. Keep in mind, not one player has jumped from the USNTDP to the pros. Whereas it is a common theme in the WHL and CHL in general. It's a faster paced, more pro-style game.
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But rest assured, if he has made as significant an improvement as you suggest, I won't turn a blind eye to it.
He's become more comfortable offensive and it shows. His skill was always there. He's had a bad game here and there, but overall has adjusted seamlessly.

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12-11-2012, 04:59 PM
  #669
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It would be interesting to see how he performed playing for a bottom feeder squad like Everett, Brandon, Moose Jaw, Regina etc.

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12-11-2012, 06:19 PM
  #670
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Originally Posted by Sundinisagod View Post
Who is the best comparison for Jones? Larry Robinson perhaps?
I still see Erik Johnson without the physicality of course.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashasx View Post
I think Pietrangelo is a fair comparison in today's NHL, though I think Jones is quite a bit better than Alex was at this age.
I actually do like the Pietrangelo comparison as well.

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12-11-2012, 06:55 PM
  #671
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I still use the Tyler Myers comparison. Both are good skaters for their size, have great stick and body positioning, have offensive skill with a big shot and can be very physical, but only when they need to be.

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12-12-2012, 01:29 AM
  #672
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Originally Posted by Renegade Stylings View Post
I still use the Tyler Myers comparison. Both are good skaters for their size, have great stick and body positioning, have offensive skill with a big shot and can be very physical, but only when they need to be.
I like Jones' upside more than Myers' (which is definitely saying something), but I agree with your comparison

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12-12-2012, 08:27 AM
  #673
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Originally Posted by Renegade Stylings View Post
I still use the Tyler Myers comparison. Both are good skaters for their size, have great stick and body positioning, have offensive skill with a big shot and can be very physical, but only when they need to be.
I like this comparison, both have a raw element to their game in junior, Jones most certainly should be able to make the leap to the NHL at 19 like Myers hopefully.

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12-12-2012, 09:16 AM
  #674
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renegade Stylings View Post
I still use the Tyler Myers comparison. Both are good skaters for their size, have great stick and body positioning, have offensive skill with a big shot and can be very physical, but only when they need to be.
I like it a lot more than the Pietrangelo comparison, that's for sure; mostly because of the blend of size/skating, positioning and rawness.

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12-12-2012, 09:55 AM
  #675
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Originally Posted by The Nuge View Post
I like Jones' upside more than Myers' (which is definitely saying something), but I agree with your comparison
Yeah, for my comparisons I don't usually consider top-end upside too much. It's more about who the player actually plays like. So then people who don't watch him can actually imagine what he looks like on the ice.

I would agree that Jones has higher upside than Myers.

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