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Off-Season Madness the 9th: Tom Cheek Memorial Edition

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Old
12-10-2012, 12:44 PM
  #701
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Knight View Post
You know people have Jays Fever when they're getting ecstatic over a BP coach hire.
Well, I'm mostly happy cause Hentgen is one of my favourite people in the baseball world. Always seems like a down-to-earth easy-going type. I can't honestly say I even know exactly how important a bullpen coach is anyway or what one needs to do to be a good one.

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12-10-2012, 01:32 PM
  #702
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Drabek has top of the rotation stuff. I think he'll be fine after TJ.
This is his second TJ though. I can't find a list of pitchers who had to have 2 TJ surgeries, but to the best of my recollection it's a short list and not exactly tending toward those guys being top flight starters when they got back from surgery #2.

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Also, while I'm here, maybe a bit off topic, but what is our AAA squad likely to look like, considering there are no injuries beyond Drabek and Henderson prior to the start of the season and there are no new pickups?
Hard to predict at this point. Presumably Gose and d'Arnaud start the year in AAA, as would Sierra and possibly/probably David Cooper (I'm not sure if Cooper still has options). Ryan Goins, who was added to the 40-man this off-season could get promoted given that he played pretty much all of last year in AA. Ditto for Ryan Schimpf (that he was in AA all last year, not that he's on the 40-man). We'll probably also see more pitchers move up to AAA rather than going AA to MLB because Buffalo isn't the launching pad that Vegas was. So with that in mind, right now I think it's probably something like:

C: Travis d'Arnaud*, Eli Whiteside*
1B: David Cooper*
2B: Mike McCoy
3B: Ryan Schimpf
SS: Ryan Goins*
LF: Sawyer Carroll (Rule 5 selection from the AAA/AA phase)
CF: Anthony Gose*
RF: Moises Sierra*

* are on the 40-man roster, making them potential call-ups.

Pitchers: Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire maybe, Carreno if/when he's ready after being hit in the face recently... Honestly, you've got me at this point, it's a lot harder to predict what they might want to do with pitchers. Justin Germano is in there somewhere, but he's a reliever. Loup would be here if he ends up being squeezed out at the MLB level. Jeffress would be too if he doesn't make the MLB cut and clears waivers. the Bisons are also allowed to sign and field their own players to fill holes that can't be by players within the Jays' org.

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Santos and Janssen have arm problems, Rogers had a couple of good months in Cleveland don't know if that will translate here, he was terrible in Colorado. Delabar was out of baseball and he could break down at any time. None of these guys are lights out finishers, their certainly are not Ward and Hinke.
You've basically described 90% of bullpen pitchers ever. Rivera-type guys who have long, distinguished, consistent careers are a rare breed. Most relievers end up having short or journeyman careers. Whether it's because of injury or just because a guy gets figured out, the bullpen is always super volatile and that's the reason that it's usually foolish to spend big money there when you can use it elsewhere instead.

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12-10-2012, 01:41 PM
  #703
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Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post

Pitchers: Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire maybe, Carreno if/when he's ready after being hit in the face recently... Honestly, you've got me at this point, it's a lot harder to predict what they might want to do with pitchers. Justin Germano is in there somewhere, but he's a reliever. Loup would be here if he ends up being squeezed out at the MLB level. Jeffress would be too if he doesn't make the MLB cut and clears waivers. the Bisons are also allowed to sign and field their own players to fill holes that can't be by players within the Jays' org.
Can't forget about Vargas. Will probably be the vet down there... possibility for callup. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dyson in AAA as well... but more likely as a reliever. I will bet Stroman when he's done his suspy will start in NH but could fast tracked to Buffalo as well.


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You've basically described 90% of bullpen pitchers ever. Rivera-type guys who have long, distinguished, consistent careers are a rare breed. Most relievers end up having short or journeyman careers. Whether it's because of injury or just because a guy gets figured out, the bullpen is always super volatile and that's the reason that it's usually foolish to spend big money there when you can use it elsewhere instead.
This.

And on top of this... I don't think we'll ever see a Mariano Rivera type for another couple of decades. And I mean this in the sense that he's a lifelong dominant closer etc.

Seems today the trend is to take anybody who has early success as a BP arm and convert them. Bard, Feliz and now Chapman come to mind. Guys like this are dominating early and teams want to make them rotation arms. I think the jury is still out on whether or not this actually works.

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12-10-2012, 01:57 PM
  #704
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glad we have Hentgen to round out the coaching staff.

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12-10-2012, 01:58 PM
  #705
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...lue-jays-pt-3/

Part 3 of Fangraphs' look at Jays prospects from "instructs" focuses on a pair of supplemental round picks last year: Tyler Gonzales and Chase deJong

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12-10-2012, 02:01 PM
  #706
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Originally Posted by Dark Knight View Post
Drabek has top of the rotation stuff. I think he'll be fine after TJ.
Sure, but he can't harness it. Guy can't throw strikes.

Im with Woodman, given the 2nd TJ, i think he'll be coming out of the pen.

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12-10-2012, 02:03 PM
  #707
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Sure, but he can't harness it. Guy can't throw strikes.

Im with Woodman, given the 2nd TJ, i think he'll be coming out of the pen.
Coming back from 2 TJ in itself is a victory, people should not be greedy and be happy if he turns into another K man out of the pen.

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12-10-2012, 02:08 PM
  #708
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Can't forget about Vargas. Will probably be the vet down there... possibility for callup. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dyson in AAA as well... but more likely as a reliever. I will bet Stroman when he's done his suspy will start in NH but could fast tracked to Buffalo as well.




This.

And on top of this... I don't think we'll ever see a Mariano Rivera type for another couple of decades. And I mean this in the sense that he's a lifelong dominant closer etc.

Seems today the trend is to take anybody who has early success as a BP arm and convert them. Bard, Feliz and now Chapman come to mind. Guys like this are dominating early and teams want to make them rotation arms. I think the jury is still out on whether or not this actually works.
Only if they keep him in the Pen. If they're going to have him starting, he'll be down in Dunedin

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12-10-2012, 02:13 PM
  #709
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Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...lue-jays-pt-3/

Part 3 of Fangraphs' look at Jays prospects from "instructs" focuses on a pair of supplemental round picks last year: Tyler Gonzales and Chase deJong
Not much exciting about the two from that article but nice to get such in depth breakdowns.

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12-10-2012, 02:24 PM
  #710
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Only if they keep him in the Pen. If they're going to have him starting, he'll be down in Dunedin
If i'm not mistaken Stroman and the Jays both said the plan is to keep him in the 'pen. He was in the pen right up until the failed that test.

I personally don't think they should bother with him as a starter... get him into a relief role and groom him.

Would be interested to know how many pitchers his size are starters in the league today.

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12-10-2012, 02:24 PM
  #711
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Can't forget about Vargas. Will probably be the vet down there... possibility for callup. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dyson in AAA as well... but more likely as a reliever. I will bet Stroman when he's done his suspy will start in NH but could fast tracked to Buffalo as well.
Vargas, that was the name I was forgetting. Yeah, he'll be there for sure. Agreed on the other two as well.

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12-10-2012, 02:36 PM
  #712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topched View Post
Can't forget about Vargas. Will probably be the vet down there... possibility for callup. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dyson in AAA as well... but more likely as a reliever. I will bet Stroman when he's done his suspy will start in NH but could fast tracked to Buffalo as well.
I bet Jays give Stroman the chance to start. Even if he is not a long-term starter, if you can get him to be a good starter for the first few seasons in the big, you take that. Most guys are starters anyways even if their role in the bigs isn't as a starter unless they prove they can't handle the load.

Nolin and Stilson are guys that will likely start in AA as well but could reach Buffalo towards the end.

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12-10-2012, 02:52 PM
  #713
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
Hard to predict at this point.
I figured. Still curious to see the opinions.

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Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
Presumably Gose and d'Arnaud start the year in AAA, as would Sierra and possibly/probably David Cooper (I'm not sure if Cooper still has options).
Maybe just me, but if we don't sign anyone else, we do still have a bench spot to fill, no? Probably one of Gose and d'Arnaud would fill it, at least until we can find someone else.

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Ryan Goins, who was added to the 40-man this off-season could get promoted given that he played pretty much all of last year in AA.
I took a look at Goins numbers the other day and they're not overly impressive. I'm guessing he's just the best option available? I also saw Kevin Howard who had pretty good numbers in Las Vegas. Is he still under contract?

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Ditto for Ryan Schimpf (that he was in AA all last year, not that he's on the 40-man).
Perhaps I'm thinking too much in MLB terms, but Schimpf isn't really your prototypical 3B. If he's in AAA, he's probably a bench/utility guy. If it's open, would Mark Sobolewski be an option, or did his 80 AB stint last year relegate him to a AA roster spot to start the season?

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We'll probably also see more pitchers move up to AAA rather than going AA to MLB because Buffalo isn't the launching pad that Vegas was.
That's really more what I was thinking about when I posed the question. I'm expecting AA guys from last year to be in AAA this year, but that of course brings the question of who in AAA last year was legitimately a AAA-level pitcher and who was there just to be cannon fodder for the hitter-friendly PCL?

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So with that in mind, right now I think it's probably something like:

C: Travis d'Arnaud*, Eli Whiteside*
1B: David Cooper*
2B: Mike McCoy
3B: Ryan Schimpf
SS: Ryan Goins*
LF: Sawyer Carroll (Rule 5 selection from the AAA/AA phase)
CF: Anthony Gose*
RF: Moises Sierra*

* are on the 40-man roster, making them potential call-ups.
Is McCoy still in the organization? I was under the impression that he was pretty much gone after he was taken off the 40-man.

I would imagine Carroll is here for a while. I can't seem to find another good outfielder to fill spots. Ricardo Nanita and Danny Perales seem to be the next options.

Is Koby Clemens likely still stuck at A+/AA, or might he get a look at AAA this year?

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Pitchers: Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire maybe, Carreno if/when he's ready after being hit in the face recently... Honestly, you've got me at this point, it's a lot harder to predict what they might want to do with pitchers. Justin Germano is in there somewhere, but he's a reliever. Loup would be here if he ends up being squeezed out at the MLB level. Jeffress would be too if he doesn't make the MLB cut and clears waivers. the Bisons are also allowed to sign and field their own players to fill holes that can't be by players within the Jays' org.
My guess is we'll see a lot of the guys that were forced into the Majors due to the injuries being sent to in AAA next year: Carreno, Jenkins, Dyson, Crawford, Loup, Coello, Laffey. I also don't see Jeffress finding a spot, unless it's over Lincoln. I would guess the rotation will look something like Laffey, McGuire, Jenkins, Carreno and someone else. Were O'Sullivan and Chavez legit AAA guys or were they those fodder-types? Are they options for the other starter? Is Scott Richmond likely to be resigned, or is he gone for good?

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12-10-2012, 03:01 PM
  #714
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Not gonna address the rest of the post because really I can't speak with great familiarity on all the players in the system, but I filled that lineup in based on there being no additional moves made at any level. So for the likes of Goins and Schimpf it's partially a case of them being the best available options at this point.

Specific to McCoy, he was optioned off the 40-man roster, but wasn't picked up on waivers and accepted assignment to Buffalo, so he is sort of in the org in a manner of speaking.

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12-10-2012, 03:06 PM
  #715
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I forget how the Rule-5 process works. Are we free to send Carroll or any draftee up and down from the Jays?

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12-10-2012, 03:10 PM
  #716
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Originally Posted by Diamond Joe Quimby View Post
Just while everyone is on the subject; Wil Myers is considered by some experts the best hitting prospect in baseball. In the PCL last year, his metrics were .400 wOBA, 137 wRC+, and .250 ISO.

The Blue Jays top prospect Travis d'Arnaud's PCL numbers last year: .415 wOBA, 147 wRC+, .262 ISO. He also struck out less frequently than Myers. That should help paint a picture of how special the young catcher is.
Can we please get this guy up already?

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12-10-2012, 03:13 PM
  #717
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I forget how the Rule-5 process works. Are we free to send Carroll or any draftee up and down from the Jays?
Up and down between their current level and a higher one, yes I think. Down below where they were drafted to, no. If they want to send a player down, they have to offer him back to his original team first, while also agreeing to pay half of the player's salary if the team does re-claim him. Just like players picked at the MLB phase of the draft.

TBH, I'm not positive because I can't ever recall a situation of a minor league phase rule 5 pick getting promoted above where he was drafted to.

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12-10-2012, 03:29 PM
  #718
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Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
Not gonna address the rest of the post because really I can't speak with great familiarity on all the players in the system, but I filled that lineup in based on there being no additional moves made at any level. So for the likes of Goins and Schimpf it's partially a case of them being the best available options at this point.

Specific to McCoy, he was optioned off the 40-man roster, but wasn't picked up on waivers and accepted assignment to Buffalo, so he is sort of in the org in a manner of speaking.
Gotcha. It's a downside of baseball-reference that they don't seem to keep track of minor league movements/contracts, though I guess since a google search find even less as far as contract/rights holders for minor leaguers, it's not wholly their fault. I guess it's one of those questions we'll have to wait for the organization itself to answer at the end of spring training instead of predictions from people in the know.

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12-10-2012, 03:43 PM
  #719
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Gotcha. It's a downside of baseball-reference that they don't seem to keep track of minor league movements/contracts, though I guess since a google search find even less as far as contract/rights holders for minor leaguers, it's not wholly their fault. I guess it's one of those questions we'll have to wait for the organization itself to answer at the end of spring training instead of predictions from people in the know.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/201...arreno_mcdade/

From that move the Jays lost McDade on waivers, but were able to assign both McCoy and Carreno off the 40-man

In other news, Buster Olney is apparently saying that the Indians have signed Mark Reynolds. Perhaps this puts them either out of or at least in the background of the Kevin Youkilis derby, possibly meaning the Yankees are in top spot. Which isn't a big deal anyway because Youk isn't what he once was offensively, and he's awful defensively. he's a bench guy at best right now.

EDIT: and Jason Grilli is apparently going to stay in Pittsburgh too. He might've been another nice piece for the Jays pen, but it's still a resounding "meh". We've got options.

EDIT 2: Links

Reynolds to Cle - http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/201..._for_one_year/

Grilli in Pit - http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/201..._with_pirates/


Last edited by The Nemesis: 12-10-2012 at 03:49 PM.
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12-10-2012, 03:50 PM
  #720
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Grilli re-signs with the Pirates for 2yr/7M. I would like to see to the team bring on another late inning reliever. The pen has arms with upside but also little track record and I'm not sure what Delabar/Lincoln/Rogers will give you next season. Gives you insurance too in case Santos isn't ready to go.

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12-10-2012, 03:56 PM
  #721
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Grilli re-signs with the Pirates for 2yr/7M. I would like to see to the team bring on another late inning reliever. The pen has arms with upside but also little track record and I'm not sure what Delabar/Lincoln/Rogers will give you next season. Gives you insurance too in case Santos isn't ready to go.
I honestly think Villanueva is going to be a Blue Jay come ST.

Its going to be tough for him to find a guaranteed rotation role anywhere, and if so its going to be with a basement team looking for a bargain.

Once he realizes this I think he'll be looking to us. He has been dynamite out of the pen the last few years, despite coming in and out of the rotation.

If we get Oliver and sign CV... I'd put our pen up against anyone's. Oliver is that late inning guy we need.

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12-10-2012, 03:57 PM
  #722
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Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale
Grilli gets two-years, $6.75 million from #Pirates, after turning down bigger deal from #BlueJays

Looks like Jays still have some money left over to spend.

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12-10-2012, 03:59 PM
  #723
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Seems today the trend is to take anybody who has early success as a BP arm and convert them. Bard, Feliz and now Chapman come to mind. Guys like this are dominating early and teams want to make them rotation arms. I think the jury is still out on whether or not this actually works.
I decided to look at players that were used as relievers and then converted/reconverted back to a starter and the most valuable are (in no specific order)

Sale
Wilson
Morrow
Ogando
McCarthy
Samardzija
Wainwright
Medlen

Teams obviously realize that while they are good as relievers, they could get so much more value if they start. Injuries are always a risk, but they might as well milk all that value by starting them.

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12-10-2012, 03:59 PM
  #724
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Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale
Grilli gets two-years, $6.75 million from #Pirates, after turning down bigger deal from #BlueJays

Looks like Jays still have some money left over to spend.
That *******! Don't they know who we are now!

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12-10-2012, 04:01 PM
  #725
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I honestly think Villanueva is going to be a Blue Jay come ST.

Its going to be tough for him to find a guaranteed rotation role anywhere, and if so its going to be with a basement team looking for a bargain.

Once he realizes this I think he'll be looking to us. He has been dynamite out of the pen the last few years, despite coming in and out of the rotation.

If we get Oliver and sign CV... I'd put our pen up against anyone's. Oliver is that late inning guy we need.
I think that deal between KC and Tampa removed Villanueva's only major suitor (KC). Them acquiring Wade Davis likely eliminates him for any starting gig there.

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