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Off-Season Madness the 9th: Tom Cheek Memorial Edition

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Old
12-10-2012, 08:43 PM
  #751
Thorntonfan97
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IIRC Jason Frasor also had two TJ surgeries

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12-10-2012, 10:04 PM
  #752
dredeye
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Originally Posted by Thorntonfan97 View Post
IIRC Jason Frasor also had two TJ surgeries
I don't know how I missed that he even had one

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Old
12-10-2012, 10:22 PM
  #753
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
gose
mckoy
cooper
---
sierra
d'arnaud

who's the AAA DH to bat cleanup?
Nanita probably at DH. I thought I saw somewhere he was brought back

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Old
12-10-2012, 10:22 PM
  #754
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Originally Posted by GeneralSwell View Post
I'm assuming d'Arnaud will be batting in the three or four hole if he starts the season in AAA.
I agree

Gose
Mckoy
D'arnaud
Cooper
Sierra

We already have a good bench as it is at the MLB level but it's nice to see so much depth behind the bench. All those guys are good guys to have during the season for injury call ups... All of them likely will some MLB AB's. Seems like we have a ridiculous amount of depth compared to last season...

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Old
12-10-2012, 10:25 PM
  #755
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So who has a better rotation after the Shields/Davis trade, the Jays or the Rays? I'll still give the edge to the Rays but it just got a lot closer.

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Old
12-10-2012, 10:35 PM
  #756
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Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
So who has a better rotation after the Shields/Davis trade, the Jays or the Rays? I'll still give the edge to the Rays but it just got a lot closer.
Price>Our rotation

So Price plus whatever else they are throwing out is better then us lol.

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Old
12-10-2012, 10:49 PM
  #757
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So who has a better rotation after the Shields/Davis trade, the Jays or the Rays? I'll still give the edge to the Rays but it just got a lot closer.
Rays easily. While they may suffer in the 'stability' department with Shields leaving, the talent level in those kids is off the hook.

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Old
12-10-2012, 11:25 PM
  #758
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Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
So who has a better rotation after the Shields/Davis trade, the Jays or the Rays? I'll still give the edge to the Rays but it just got a lot closer.
The Rays. While it did get closer, they still have Price and a lot of depth. Big time season coming for Matt Moore.

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Old
12-10-2012, 11:48 PM
  #759
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Originally Posted by GeneralSwell View Post
The Rays. While it did get closer, they still have Price and a lot of depth. Big time season coming for Matt Moore.
Having a top ten pitcher in baseball definitely gives them an advantage over most teams in the league.

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Old
12-10-2012, 11:54 PM
  #760
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It really depends on Moore tbh. I'm betting he will be fantastic, but then again if he falters I think the edge goes to the Jays in terms of pitching if their pitchers perform adequately.

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12-10-2012, 11:57 PM
  #761
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woodman19 View Post
Price>Our rotation

So Price plus whatever else they are throwing out is better then us lol.
Price is only one pitcher. He's not a staff.

WAR:

price - 4.4 (6.4) [assuming last season was an outlier and not the standard]
hellickson - 3
moore - 1.2
cobb - .7
niemann - .6
= 9.9 (to 11.9)

johnson - 5 (6.8)
beuhrle - 3.4
morrow - 3.2*+
romero - 4.5 (-2 - +6)
happ - .6
= 16.7 (to 18.5 if johnson goes top, 20 if romero bounces back fully, and more if morrow completes the season as he started it for us in '12)


Last edited by Sokil: 12-11-2012 at 12:24 AM.
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Old
12-11-2012, 12:28 AM
  #762
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Moore's WAR will be higher. He had a great 2nd half after struggling a lot early on.

If Jays pitchers stay healthy I like their staff better.

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Old
12-11-2012, 12:32 AM
  #763
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tb's rotation looks a tad inexperienced
helps to have season vets like buerhle

hopefully they wont have our no. this yr
those games with tb could be huge

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Old
12-11-2012, 02:13 AM
  #764
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
tb's rotation looks a tad inexperienced
helps to have season vets like buerhle


hopefully they wont have our no. this yr
those games with tb could be huge
Unfortunately, it helps even more to have young arms with little to no tax on them.

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12-11-2012, 02:28 AM
  #765
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riiiiiight

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scion View Post
Unfortunately, it helps even more to have young arms with little to no tax on them.
Drabek and Hutchinson and McGowan and Litsch say hi.

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Old
12-11-2012, 02:34 AM
  #766
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sokil View Post
Price is only one pitcher. He's not a staff.

WAR:

price - 4.4 (6.4) [assuming last season was an outlier and not the standard]
hellickson - 3
moore - 1.2
cobb - .7
niemann - .6
= 9.9 (to 11.9)

johnson - 5 (6.8)
beuhrle - 3.4
morrow - 3.2*+
romero - 4.5 (-2 - +6)
happ - .6
= 16.7 (to 18.5 if johnson goes top, 20 if romero bounces back fully, and more if morrow completes the season as he started it for us in '12)
What the hell is this? I can make up numbers too.

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12-11-2012, 02:41 AM
  #767
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Realistic WAR

Tampa:
Price - 5
Moore - 4
Cobb - 3
Hellickson - 2 - 2.5
Niemann - 2

This will be better than the Jays staff.


Johnson - 4.5
Morrow - 3.5 (could be higher)
Buehrle - 2
Romero - 3
Happ - 1.5


Last edited by Jason MacIsaac: 12-11-2012 at 02:48 AM.
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Old
12-11-2012, 03:02 AM
  #768
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It seems there's 2 many question marks... Anything can happen obviously but what we do no is while the rotation comparison might be close, our offence is miles better. The last couple of seasons our offence was relying on the long ball to win 2 many games, now with the added speed it seems like the complexion of our offence has changed. I don't see the Rays dominating us this year like they have the last few seasons. I don't care how good a rotation is, when you have speed to burn on the base pads any pitcher will have trouble keeping runs off the board.

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Old
12-11-2012, 03:25 AM
  #769
Scion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sokil View Post
Drabek and Hutchinson and McGowan and Litsch say hi.
What is your point?

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Old
12-11-2012, 07:09 AM
  #770
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What is your point?
Presumably that young guys can still have arm injuries.

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Old
12-11-2012, 07:22 AM
  #771
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Originally Posted by Scion View Post
What is your point?
You know... Young guys have little to no tax on them.

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Old
12-11-2012, 09:02 AM
  #772
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I'd actually argue that you're more likely to see arm breakdowns with the young guys. Guys like Buehrle have pitched so many innings that you know they're not going to break down.

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Old
12-11-2012, 09:23 AM
  #773
Diamond Joe Quimby
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
Realistic WAR

Tampa:
Price - 5
Moore - 4
Cobb - 3
Hellickson - 2 - 2.5
Niemann - 2

This will be better than the Jays staff.


Johnson - 4.5
Morrow - 3.5 (could be higher)
Buehrle - 2
Romero - 3
Happ - 1.5
Hellickson will have a sub 2 WAR. His luck will run out, and even with that ridiculous luck over the past two years, his WAR still never topped 1.5. The rest I would agree with.

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Old
12-11-2012, 09:41 AM
  #774
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
Realistic WAR

Tampa:
Price - 5
Moore - 4
Cobb - 3
Hellickson - 2 - 2.5
Niemann - 2

This will be better than the Jays staff.


Johnson - 4.5
Morrow - 3.5 (could be higher)
Buehrle - 2
Romero - 3
Happ - 1.5
I still fail to see why anyone would use WAR as a reliable measure in any player's ability/value. It's an unstandardized method, making it possible that many different sources will provide many different numbers under that statistic, which could result in many different comparative results, but more than that, it also means that one cannot be sure exactly what the stat represents.

I'll still think WHIP and ERA+ are the most useful stats to measure the ability of a pitcher, at least until a standardized system of WAR is created, allowing for a statistical analysis of the process and a clear ability to understand what it means.


Last edited by Leafsdude7: 12-11-2012 at 09:47 AM.
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Old
12-11-2012, 09:49 AM
  #775
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Originally Posted by Leafsdude7 View Post
I still fail to see why anyone would use WAR as a reliable measure in any player's ability/value. It's an unstandardized method, making it possible that many different sources will provide many different numbers under that statistic, which could result in many different comparative results.

I'll still think WHIP and ERA+ are the most useful stats to measure the ability of a pitcher.
You are correct that pitching WAR is highly unreliable when compared to position player WAR. I don't put a large amount of stock into it. It's still a decent metric, but in no way is it the end all be all. I agree that ERA+ is good. I'm a fan of SIERA, fip and xfip. They're pretty good measures of a pitchers underlying skill.

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