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Off-Season Madness the 9th: Tom Cheek Memorial Edition

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Old
12-11-2012, 09:46 AM
  #776
p.l.f.
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only price has ever pitched 200 plus innings
where as buehrle johnson romero have pitched 200 plus innings

TAMPA

david price
age 27 -
most ip in majors: 224

matt moore
age 23 -
most ip in minors: 155
most ip in majors: 177

jeremy hellickson
age 25 -
most ip in minors: 152
most ip in majors: 189

jeff niemann
age 29 -
most ip in minors: 152
most ip in majors: 180

alex cobb
age 25 -
most ip in minors: 140
most ip in majors: 136

TORONTO

josh johnson
age 28 -
most ip in majors: 209

mark buehrle
age 33 -
most ip in majors: 245

ricky romero
age 28 -
most ip in majors: 228

brandon morrow
age 28 -
most ip in majors: 179

j.a. happ
age 30 -
most ip in majors: 166
most ip in minors: 160

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12-11-2012, 10:05 AM
  #777
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamond Joe Quimby View Post
You are correct that pitching WAR is highly unreliable when compared to position player WAR. I don't put a large amount of stock into it. It's still a decent metric, but in no way is it the end all be all. I agree that ERA+ is good. I'm a fan of SIERA, fip and xfip. They're pretty good measures of a pitchers underlying skill.
Fangraph uses FIP to calculate WAR though. Baseball reference uses runs allowed to calculate it so that's a bit unreliable but if you use FIP, then fangraph WAR is for you.

Of course, both FIP and WAR have its flaws as it can underrate players that outperform their stats like Cain, Weaver, Buehrle but if you look at multiple various stats, you should be able to come to a reasonable conclusion.

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12-11-2012, 10:44 AM
  #778
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Blue Jays sign RHPs Claudio Vargas and Richard Thompson, LHP Juan Perez, 3B Eugenio Velez and 1B/DH Luis Jimenez to Minor League contracts.

https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/278539617190412288

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12-11-2012, 10:52 AM
  #779
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Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
What the hell is this? I can make up numbers too.
I didn't make up numbers, just used their average over the past 2-3 seasons if they were having an outlier season in 2012. I know, I know, medians are the devils work, right?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason MacIsaac View Post
Realistic WAR
Buehrle - 2
Did you just proceed to actually make up your own random numbers? lol really? Buehrle has only had a 2 WAR once in his career


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Old
12-11-2012, 11:09 AM
  #780
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Originally Posted by BurkieHockeyGenius View Post
Blue Jays sign RHPs Claudio Vargas and Richard Thompson, LHP Juan Perez, 3B Eugenio Velez and 1B/DH Luis Jimenez to Minor League contracts.

https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/278539617190412288
luis jiminez
http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=jimene006lui

previous question now answered:

gose
mckoy
cooper
jiminez
sierra
d'arnaud

i only put d'arnaud 6th cuz he's a catcher who might sit the odd one out)

johnson makes a good AAA setup man

AA is stocking Buffalo with veteran castoffs this week apparently

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12-11-2012, 11:11 AM
  #781
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BurkieHockeyGenius View Post
Blue Jays sign RHPs Claudio Vargas and Richard Thompson, LHP Juan Perez, 3B Eugenio Velez and 1B/DH Luis Jimenez to Minor League contracts.

https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/278539617190412288
Good minor league depth move, Jimenez has had a consistently good bat, he'll be a nice fit in AAA.

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12-11-2012, 11:16 AM
  #782
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whats the AAA pitching staff as of now ?

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12-11-2012, 11:38 AM
  #783
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
whats the AAA pitching staff as of now ?
I don't know everyone.

I'm guessing Jenkins, and Mcguire will be two of the SP. Sean O'sullivan will likely be another on the starters. Dyson and Stroman maybe as relievers (when stroman comes back).

The pitching wont be as good as the batting thats for sure.

I think New Hampshire is the team that will be getting a little upgrade in its pitching from Dunedin this year as guys progress through the system.

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12-11-2012, 12:33 PM
  #784
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo Getz View Post
Presumably that young guys can still have arm injuries.
Anyone can have injuries, that doesn't change the fact that all things being equal a younger pitcher is likely to have more durability and velocity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Amazing Ralph View Post
I'd actually argue that you're more likely to see arm breakdowns with the young guys. Guys like Buehrle have pitched so many innings that you know they're not going to break down.
As pitchers age they tend to see a regression in their fast ball velocity, and their arm accumulates more wear and tear. This is especially prevalent when a pitch enters into his age 30 and above seasons. No one would have predicted Halladay and Haren to break down last season, but it happened, and it is not uncommon.

This is not to say that an unknown 24 year old SP is more reliable than Mark Buehrle, rather that all things being equal a younger SP tends to be a more valuable asset because they have less wear and tear on their arms, and velocity loss. It is also true that as you age it becomes harder and harder to recover from injury.


Last edited by Scion: 12-11-2012 at 01:48 PM.
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12-11-2012, 12:35 PM
  #785
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I still fail to see why anyone would use WAR as a reliable measure in any player's ability/value. It's an unstandardized method, making it possible that many different sources will provide many different numbers under that statistic, which could result in many different comparative results, but more than that, it also means that one cannot be sure exactly what the stat represents.

I'll still think WHIP and ERA+ are the most useful stats to measure the ability of a pitcher, at least until a standardized system of WAR is created, allowing for a statistical analysis of the process and a clear ability to understand what it means.
Why not dig into the different WAR measures and decide for yourself which is best?

WAR isn't just drawn from thin air by arbitrary choice, there's theory and empirical evidence to back them up. There's debate about the theory and evidence, so from there you can make judgments yourself.

When I see WAR, I usually just assume its Fangraphs' version, mentally add/subtract 0.5 wins or so (depending on the sample size) to give a general range, and then a debate can begin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Fangraph uses FIP to calculate WAR though.
I'm pretty sure Fangraphs' WAR is entirely based on FIP (with league/park adjustments I think? too lazy/busy to check through Fangraphs' glossary), so it has always struck me as a strange way to summarize a pitcher without consideration for innings pitched.

I tend to grab a summary of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and perhaps tERA, to give me a general read out of a pitcher's performance.

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Old
12-11-2012, 12:43 PM
  #786
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I keep hearing all over the place, not as much here but other forums/blogs...

"If the jays lose 2 starters to injury they're screwed/season is over/no chance"

Makes me laugh. If any team in the majors loses two starters to injury this is the case. Everyone is so uptight after last season.

Im really hoping we have a reversal of fortune this year... and we go mostly injury free

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Old
12-11-2012, 01:01 PM
  #787
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topched View Post
I keep hearing all over the place, not as much here but other forums/blogs...

"If the jays lose 2 starters to injury they're screwed/season is over/no chance"

Makes me laugh. If any team in the majors loses two starters to injury this is the case. Everyone is so uptight after last season.

Im really hoping we have a reversal of fortune this year... and we go mostly injury free
Yup last year we lost 3 sp in 4 games not a team in the mlb can over come that. Add in ricky's epic fall at about the same time and we had 1 out of 5 opening roster sp going and that was a rookie pitcher. then we lose like 4 important bats in a span of a week.
Injuries are not an excuse ........ but come on.

This year we can only hope it gets better

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Old
12-11-2012, 01:01 PM
  #788
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topched View Post
I keep hearing all over the place, not as much here but other forums/blogs...

"If the jays lose 2 starters to injury they're screwed/season is over/no chance"

Makes me laugh. If any team in the majors loses two starters to injury this is the case. Everyone is so uptight after last season.

Im really hoping we have a reversal of fortune this year... and we go mostly injury free
Yea I hope so, as long as Gibbons doesn't try and push the more injury prone starters to much to throw more pitches and stay in for more innings that will hopefully help prevent injuries. I remember hearing last year how Farrell was trying to get the starters to pitch 200 innings or something, that over working them is probably what got them injured.

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Old
12-11-2012, 01:33 PM
  #789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlienWorkShop View Post
Why not dig into the different WAR measures and decide for yourself which is best?

WAR isn't just drawn from thin air by arbitrary choice, there's theory and empirical evidence to back them up. There's debate about the theory and evidence, so from there you can make judgments yourself.

When I see WAR, I usually just assume its Fangraphs' version, mentally add/subtract 0.5 wins or so (depending on the sample size) to give a general range, and then a debate can begin.

I'm pretty sure Fangraphs' WAR is entirely based on FIP (with league/park adjustments I think? too lazy/busy to check through Fangraphs' glossary), so it has always struck me as a strange way to summarize a pitcher without consideration for innings pitched.

I tend to grab a summary of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and perhaps tERA, to give me a general read out of a pitcher's performance.
I am pretty sure innings pitched is in the formula, it has to be. You can have a lower FIP but if you pitch something like 100 innings, while the other guy posts a worse FIP (not by a huge margin) but he gets 200ip, the latter will have the better WAR. You will notice that once you start looking through the pitchers in fangraph. Its also why relievers always post a low WAR despite how great their FIP is due to innings limit. I haven't looked at the formula though... just seems like something that would be common sense. Just as plate appeareances affect a position player WAR, likewise, pitcher's WAR is affected by innings pitched and how well you pitch those innings. It holds true for baseball reference WAR as well... I think.

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Old
12-11-2012, 02:15 PM
  #790
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more likely tampa's starters get hurt trying to stretch those young arms out to 200 ip
only concern for me would be morrow

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12-11-2012, 02:38 PM
  #791
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more likely tampa's starters get hurt trying to stretch those young arms out to 200 ip
only concern for me would be morrow
Well Morrow and Johnson both. I'd try and aim for 170-180 for Morrow and 180-190 for Johnson. If Romero can get backt to his oldself we should be good for 2 starters pitching 200 innings. Which will really help our BP out.

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12-11-2012, 02:43 PM
  #792
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so how are the people's view on the bullpen and the pitching coach, i missed it, sorry lol. is it good or bad for us

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12-11-2012, 02:55 PM
  #793
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so how are the people's view on the bullpen and the pitching coach, i missed it, sorry lol. is it good or bad for us
Much improved in terms of strikeout capability. Still a few question marks, especially if Oliver decides to retire, but overall it should be a position of strength for us.

Jays hired ex-jay Pat Hentgen for the pen coaching job. Not a particularly 'demanding' job. It will be nice to see Pat pacing around the pen though. I'm sure he can spread some words of wisdom.

Janssen, Delabar and Loup should be consistent workhorses in their own scenarios. Lincoln and Cecil hold down the long relief. Santos, Rogers, and Jeffress are question marks in their own varying degree.

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Old
12-11-2012, 03:07 PM
  #794
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is luis perez healed by spring ?
loup and perez can be our situation lefties

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12-11-2012, 03:09 PM
  #795
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is luis perez healed by spring ?
loup and perez can be our situation lefties
TJ in july. He'll be gone for the season almost certainly.

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12-11-2012, 03:54 PM
  #796
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Jon Heyman is saying that Cleveland is in the works of trading Choo Shin-Soo + another player for Didi Gregorius and Drew Stubbs of the Reds.

He also says this would free up Asdrubal for a trade

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12-11-2012, 04:01 PM
  #797
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tad late, but wat happend to lyon?

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12-11-2012, 04:02 PM
  #798
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Originally Posted by calcal798 View Post
Jon Heyman is saying that Cleveland is in the works of trading Choo Shin-Soo + another player for Didi Gregorius and Drew Stubbs of the Reds.

He also says this would free up Asdrubal for a trade


does that help us in someway
not ripping
just asking

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12-11-2012, 04:03 PM
  #799
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think we should add another lefty, i really like loup, but he is young, so we need a backup plan if loup can't deliver, who would it be

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12-11-2012, 04:04 PM
  #800
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Everlong View Post
Much improved in terms of strikeout capability. Still a few question marks, especially if Oliver decides to retire, but overall it should be a position of strength for us.

Jays hired ex-jay Pat Hentgen for the pen coaching job. Not a particularly 'demanding' job. It will be nice to see Pat pacing around the pen though. I'm sure he can spread some words of wisdom.

Janssen, Delabar and Loup should be consistent workhorses in their own scenarios. Lincoln and Cecil hold down the long relief. Santos, Rogers, and Jeffress are question marks in their own varying degree.
thanks for the input pal, as always appreciate it.

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