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Off-Season Madness the 9th: Tom Cheek Memorial Edition

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Old
12-11-2012, 05:06 PM
  #801
Eyedea
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think we should add another lefty, i really like loup, but he is young, so we need a backup plan if loup can't deliver, who would it be
Well if Oliver does retire, then Cecil. Delabar could also be used as a part time LOOGY because of that devastating splitter.

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12-11-2012, 05:06 PM
  #802
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does that help us in someway
not ripping
just asking
Sure.

Chin will probably sign with the Reds, getting another quality OF with a good bat out of the AL. I just hope Asdrubal gets traded to a NL team (Arizona?) and not a contending AL team. Although the Arizone trade may mean Upton coming into the AL.

Definitely thinking Ubaldo Jiminez could be taken off their plate if they're selling off assets, and not for much either.

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12-11-2012, 05:17 PM
  #803
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Originally Posted by calcal798 View Post
Sure.

Chin will probably sign with the Reds, getting another quality OF with a good bat out of the AL. I just hope Asdrubal gets traded to a NL team (Arizona?) and not a contending AL team. Although the Arizone trade may mean Upton coming into the AL.

Definitely thinking Ubaldo Jiminez could be taken off their plate if they're selling off assets, and not for much either.

thanks man,
i wouldn't mind ubaldo as part of rotation

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12-11-2012, 05:21 PM
  #804
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thanks man,
i wouldn't mind ubaldo as part of rotation
ubaldo is signed to a really team-friendly contract. That being said, his drop in velocity is concerning, he's a different pitcher now than he was a couple years ago

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12-11-2012, 05:22 PM
  #805
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ubaldo is signed to a really team-friendly contract. That being said, his drop in velocity is concerning, he's a different pitcher now than he was a couple years ago


we will have to see, but if not him, im not concerned about happ, i think he will pitch okay this season,
but if we can get ubaldo, ill be happy with that

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12-11-2012, 05:24 PM
  #806
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ubaldo is signed to a really team-friendly contract. That being said, his drop in velocity is concerning, he's a different pitcher now than he was a couple years ago
If that explanation isn't enough for people to not want Lincecum its not going to help for Jiminez.

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12-11-2012, 05:27 PM
  #807
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If that explanation isn't enough for people to not want Lincecum its not going to help for Jiminez.

yeah, I watched highlights, and I'm like wat has happend to lincecum

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12-11-2012, 05:29 PM
  #808
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ubaldo is signed to a really team-friendly contract. That being said, his drop in velocity is concerning, he's a different pitcher now than he was a couple years ago
Yea I wouldnt expect him to be the 2010 Ubaldo again, but something similar to 2011 would be more then acceptable, especially considering he'd come in as a back of the rotation starter.

96 mph to 92.5, that is a scary drop.


Last edited by calcal798: 12-11-2012 at 05:41 PM.
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Old
12-11-2012, 05:31 PM
  #809
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4:20pm: There is now a three-team deal in the works between the Reds, Indians, and Diamondbacks, according to Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). Asdrubal Cabrera is not involved in the discussions at this stage.

3:01pm: The Reds and Indians are deep in talks that would send Shin-Soo Choo to Cincinnati, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. The Indians would receive center fielder Drew Stubbs and shortstop Didi Gregorius in return while the Reds are expected to receive another player in the deal.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#B6o0pDtV20CmD2yv.99

Sorry if it has been mentioned.

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12-11-2012, 05:38 PM
  #810
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tad late, but wat happend to lyon?
he's a free agent

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12-11-2012, 05:51 PM
  #811
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i hope we bring lyon back. We were finalists for Grilli, who posted similar numbers and is older. Jays offered more than what he signed for, which leads us to believe that another reliever will be signed. I'm hoping if we strike out on the other options, lyon is brought back at around 3.5 per year

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12-11-2012, 05:56 PM
  #812
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we will have to see, but if not him, im not concerned about happ, i think he will pitch okay this season,
but if we can get ubaldo, ill be happy with that
actually i think Happ will be decent as a #5 starter. He came in near the end of the season, and gave us 6 solid starts. I'd like to see what he could do over the full year, you never know he could surprise a lot of us. Especially having a full off-season to work and prepare.

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12-11-2012, 06:00 PM
  #813
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actually i think Happ will be decent as a #5 starter. He came in near the end of the season, and gave us 6 solid starts. I'd like to see what he could do over the full year, you never know he could surprise a lot of us. Especially having a full off-season to work and prepare.
His velocity and stuff have been improving over the last 2 years. He is clearly someone with more left in the tank then previously shown.

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12-11-2012, 06:04 PM
  #814
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I am pretty sure innings pitched is in the formula, it has to be. You can have a lower FIP but if you pitch something like 100 innings, while the other guy posts a worse FIP (not by a huge margin) but he gets 200ip, the latter will have the better WAR. You will notice that once you start looking through the pitchers in fangraph. Its also why relievers always post a low WAR despite how great their FIP is due to innings limit. I haven't looked at the formula though... just seems like something that would be common sense. Just as plate appeareances affect a position player WAR, likewise, pitcher's WAR is affected by innings pitched and how well you pitch those innings. It holds true for baseball reference WAR as well... I think.
Ah, I wasn't exactly clear at the end there. What I meant to say is since WAR accumulates over innings, so WAR doesn't necessarily express inning-by-inning effectiveness. But... that's not really saying anything at all since that's the case for position player WAR too haha.

I guess in my mind, with pitcher injuries so common, I find extrapolating a pitcher's WAR across a whole season kind of a silly exercise. But... perhaps that's just me being conditioned as a Jays fan and being a big Morrow fan haha.

On a more philosophical note, I interpret stats like FIP as a way of wiping away the noise to look at a pitcher's true fundamentals over a long timeframe. In any given season, you'll find guys with low ERAs and high FIP, as pitchers can get lucky for an entire season with their BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB. However, even if they were "lucky", I still think it's fine to say a starter had a good season if he's got a lot of wins and a low ERA, despite his FIP.

As a quick example, Jonathan Sanchez was 13-9 with an ERA of 3.09, FIP 4.00 in 2010. He had a WAR of 2.2, roughly an average year for a starter, but, in my view, he had a very good year. In terms of predicting next year's success, I'd bet against Sanchez (and would've succeeded in this case, as his ERA jumped to 4.26 in 2011 and he was 4-7), but I don't take that 2010 year away from him.

So... I guess I'm just stating the obvious that FIP, and hence WAR, is very volatile, so it doesn't necessarily predict a pitcher's contribution to "wins" in a given year, but it's certainly the best tool in doing so over a longer timeframe.

There are the same drawbacks in position player WAR, but I suspect it's less volatile given there's a wider array of inputs, plus a batter's contribution to the offense via wOBA is far less abstract than FIP's assumptions of a pitcher's contribution to defence (single, double, etc. vs. BABIP, LOB%, BB%, K%, HR/FB, etc.)

I'm pretty sure I just wrote a bunch of drivel, but I've spent enough time on this post that I'm posting it anyway! Discern from it what you can...

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12-11-2012, 06:08 PM
  #815
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yankees sign youkilis 1 year, 12 million. He was pretty mediocre last season, thats a lot for him IMO

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12-11-2012, 06:11 PM
  #816
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Originally Posted by Woodman19 View Post
His velocity and stuff have been improving over the last 2 years. He is clearly someone with more left in the tank then previously shown.
Yea man. they probably started working with him on developing his pitches right away. He came in and gave us a 1.1 WAR in six starts. I'd like to see how he does over a season. I'm gonna guess they're really working on his slider this off season too (a few pitchers we have have good sliders *cough*morrow and johnson*cough*). Happ has potential to surprise a lot of people, hes a big guy, that has a good arsenal of pitches. With the amount of good pitchers in our organization that he has to work with, and a lot of good staff I'm sure it will help him develope.

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Old
12-11-2012, 06:18 PM
  #817
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Who do you think John Gibbons will have as his opening day starter? I think he might throw a curve ball and start Buerhle on opening day. Although, most likely it will be Morrow.

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12-11-2012, 06:21 PM
  #818
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Originally Posted by Suntouchable13 View Post
Who do you think John Gibbons will have as his opening day starter? I think he might throw a curve ball and start Buerhle on opening day. Although, most likely it will be Morrow.
Got to be Morrow, he was our best pitcher last year and Johnson will be used against Boston in our home opener I think.

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12-11-2012, 06:22 PM
  #819
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Originally Posted by Suntouchable13 View Post
Who do you think John Gibbons will have as his opening day starter? I think he might throw a curve ball and start Buerhle on opening day. Although, most likely it will be Morrow.
I don't think it's gonna be a lefty. I'd guess it would be JJ tbh. Although it definitely could be Morrow.

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12-11-2012, 06:22 PM
  #820
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Originally Posted by Suntouchable13 View Post
Who do you think John Gibbons will have as his opening day starter? I think he might throw a curve ball and start Buerhle on opening day. Although, most likely it will be Morrow.
Josh Johnson.

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Old
12-11-2012, 06:23 PM
  #821
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i told you a week ago yankees signed youkilis

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Old
12-11-2012, 06:24 PM
  #822
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Originally Posted by Suntouchable13 View Post
Who do you think John Gibbons will have as his opening day starter? I think he might throw a curve ball and start Buerhle on opening day. Although, most likely it will be Morrow.
I'd guess Morrow. Getting me excited for the season already.

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12-11-2012, 06:24 PM
  #823
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LMFAO! My goodness the Yankees are so desperate. 12 mil for Youk..haha! They are turning out to be a joke. One minute they are saying they want to get behind the luxury tax the next they are begging players to sign with them. Swisher isn't coming back but wow, this is unreal.

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Old
12-11-2012, 06:26 PM
  #824
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Got to be Morrow, he was our best pitcher last year and Johnson will be used against Boston in our home opener I think.
The first series (Cleveland) is actually the home opener, but I do think we'll see Morrow or JJ start the series against Boston.

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i told you a week ago yankees signed youkilis
No he got an offer a week ago. There was no official signing.

I think everyone knew he was going there anyways since everybody was pulling out of the race for him.

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12-11-2012, 06:28 PM
  #825
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is this right?

JETER
SUZUKI
CANO
TEXIERA
DH
YOUKILIS
GRANDERSON
C
GARDINER

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