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James Shields and Wade Davis to KC for Wil Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery & Leonard

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Old
12-10-2012, 09:02 PM
  #101
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Really good read on why this doesn't look good for the Royals:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...de-aint-pretty

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12-10-2012, 10:51 PM
  #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darko View Post
And Shields probably walks in 2 years and all Royals get in return is a lone supplementary draft pick. It's not like we are talking about a borderline playoff team where a guy like Shields can put you over the top. This is a bigger risk for Royals than it is for Rays.
If the Royals are out of it in two years, they can always deal Shields off to a contender and get some assets back. I'm not sure what KC is supposed to do, though. They're clearly not going to throw down some big money for quality free agents, and they need some help. Meanwhile, they've been hip deep in prospects for a decade now and they either don't pan out or they end up trading them before all of their pieces come together anyway.

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12-10-2012, 10:58 PM
  #103
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I don't think this is as bad for KC as many are making it out to be. It will look real good if they can get an extension on Shields and if Davis can be a decent starter.

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12-10-2012, 11:17 PM
  #104
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I don't think this is as bad for KC as many are making it out to be. It will look real good if they can get an extension on Shields and if Davis can be a decent starter.
Yeah, but getting Shields to sign an extension is going to a.) be tough because it's the Royals and b.) be dangerous because he's going to be in his mid-30s...on the back-end of any deal signed there he's not going to be worth the money he's making. Shields has a lot of innings on his arm...which is a great sign of durability, but he could also be more likely to break down because of that. Six consecutive seasons of 200+ innings (with only one coming in under 215) is a lot of mileage, especially for a guy who lost a season to a serious shoulder injury before.

This is the sort of deal that has me, as a Pirates fan, worried. The fans demand winning and there is a deep prospect pool to deal from, but the Major League team is far more than a player away from being a legitimate contender...KC overpaid dearly for a very good pitcher on a reasonable deal...but he's likely to be ending his tenure as a Royal as the team around him is actually primed for a run in their limited window.

Maybe time will be kind to this deal, top baseball prospects flame out at an alarming rate, but still...the potential given up for the short-term is brutal. The thought of the Pirates trading a guy like Gerrit Cole for a 31 year-old (in a couple weeks) with two years left on his contract would have me rioting.

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Old
12-11-2012, 10:36 AM
  #105
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Shades of the Kessel trade from this Bruins fan...

As in that trade, the team receiving the star (KC/Toronto), really isn't a position to win, and the team receiving the prospects (TB/Boston) wants to win soon.

It's counter-intuitive.

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Old
12-11-2012, 12:28 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by gudas View Post
Really good read on why this doesn't look good for the Royals:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...de-aint-pretty
Puff piece is all that is. Its interesting that he took the time to erase all of those who flamed out and instead only pointed to those who actually made it. I mean, John Rauch was a BBA POTY also, so that atricle has to taken with a nice grain of salt.

Jim Callis wrote and interesting write up on the trade. The Royals needed to make this trade and got the better player. Myers, for all he has accomplished, struck out 140 times last year. This isnt as big a guarentee for the Rays as many here think it is. Nor is this trade something that was the main cog to put the already impressive Rays as the team to beat in the east when they already were before it.

If I had to predict the East as of right now, and this is whitout confirmation that the Yankees will resign Ichiro, I would put it as;


Rays
Yankees
O's
Red Sox
Jays

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12-11-2012, 01:43 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Martini View Post
Puff piece is all that is. Its interesting that he took the time to erase all of those who flamed out and instead only pointed to those who actually made it. I mean, John Rauch was a BBA POTY also, so that atricle has to taken with a nice grain of salt.

Jim Callis wrote and interesting write up on the trade. The Royals needed to make this trade and got the better player. Myers, for all he has accomplished, struck out 140 times last year. This isnt as big a guarentee for the Rays as many here think it is. Nor is this trade something that was the main cog to put the already impressive Rays as the team to beat in the east when they already were before it.

If I had to predict the East as of right now, and this is whitout confirmation that the Yankees will resign Ichiro, I would put it as;


Rays
Yankees
O's
Red Sox
Jays
What makes the Rays favourites? Did you not see their lineup, which wasn't good to begin with, lost two of its best hitters, and now have lost its #2 starting pitcher? At this point, they could be looking at 4th.

Also, your lack of respect for the Blue Jays is disgusting. On paper, they have what it takes to finish first, but I guess you're already assuming injuries for them while not doing the same thing for the other teams. Let me remind you that Longoria only played 74 games last season. If he has to miss any more games next season, the Rays will be in a whole lot of trouble. Without Longoria, the Rays have a AAA line-up

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Old
12-11-2012, 02:13 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Martini View Post
Puff piece is all that is. Its interesting that he took the time to erase all of those who flamed out and instead only pointed to those who actually made it. I mean, John Rauch was a BBA POTY also, so that atricle has to taken with a nice grain of salt.
Read more carefully, chief. That was a list of all the position players to win the BA POTY award, Jon Rauch isn't included because he is a pitcher.

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12-11-2012, 02:19 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Martini View Post
Puff piece is all that is.
Puff pieces are rarely seen on Grantland, and that article was no different.

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Old
12-11-2012, 03:23 PM
  #110
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I actually enjoy Joe Posnanski's view on things the most of who I've read.

He's generally pretty great.

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12-11-2012, 04:34 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by kanuck87 View Post
What makes the Rays favourites? Did you not see their lineup, which wasn't good to begin with, lost two of its best hitters, and now have lost its #2 starting pitcher? At this point, they could be looking at 4th.

Also, your lack of respect for the Blue Jays is disgusting. On paper, they have what it takes to finish first, but I guess you're already assuming injuries for them while not doing the same thing for the other teams. Let me remind you that Longoria only played 74 games last season. If he has to miss any more games next season, the Rays will be in a whole lot of trouble. Without Longoria, the Rays have a AAA line-up
no he just realizes we will bite on his bait everytime... well we used to, now its just hilarious how far he reaches

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Old
12-11-2012, 04:51 PM
  #112
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no he just realizes we will bite on his bait everytime... well we used to, now its just hilarious how far he reaches
more importantly is, who the **** cares what Martini thinks?

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Old
12-11-2012, 05:57 PM
  #113
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more importantly is, who the **** cares what Martini thinks?
Wow. Dots have been connected. I was wondering why I haven't see him around in a while.

I'm starting to come around to this deal being less of a landslide I first thought it was. I mean, yes, in terms of assets the rays win out. The Royals wanted a top of the rotation starter so they can attempt to contend in the next 2-3 years. Both teams got what they wanted even if the payment was over the top.

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12-11-2012, 06:19 PM
  #114
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Wow. Dots have been connected. I was wondering why I haven't see him around in a while.

I'm starting to come around to this deal being less of a landslide I first thought it was. I mean, yes, in terms of assets the rays win out. The Royals wanted a top of the rotation starter so they can attempt to contend in the next 2-3 years. Both teams got what they wanted even if the payment was over the top.
Yeah, I doubt the Royals could have gotten a better pitcher than Shields, at that salary, with Myers. Getting James Shields might be a bit of a downer considering what some people thought Myers could be, but at the end of the day, he's still just a prospect.

Besides, even if they keep Myers, what good is that lineup going to be if the team's top two pitchers are Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana???? With Shields, at least there is a shot. They'd be wasting away Alex Gordon ( who is 28 btw), and effectively all of their other younger players prime seasons as well. The fans hate it, but Myers producing at a Ryan Braun-level (being very generous here) probably still doesn't get the Royals to the playoffs.

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12-11-2012, 10:53 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by kanuck87 View Post
What makes the Rays favourites? Did you not see their lineup, which wasn't good to begin with, lost two of its best hitters, and now have lost its #2 starting pitcher? At this point, they could be looking at 4th.

Also, your lack of respect for the Blue Jays is disgusting. On paper, they have what it takes to finish first, but I guess you're already assuming injuries for them while not doing the same thing for the other teams. Let me remind you that Longoria only played 74 games last season. If he has to miss any more games next season, the Rays will be in a whole lot of trouble. Without Longoria, the Rays have a AAA line-up
Pitching? The Jays still have issues with that rotation, with the only one really standing out being Buerhle.

The Rays were atrocious defensively last year, and have improved that quite a bit by getting rid of Brooks Conrad, Drew Sutton, Wil Rhymes from the infield. Not only did they improve defensively, they're looking pretty healthy to get more production offensively by having a healthy Longo, Escobar, replacing Pena with Loney which is fairly meh, but Loney can at least make contact with the ball. Penas batspeed and discipline really fell off last year. They should be able to put up more runs next year.

The Jays rotation is still a pretty massive question mark. MB is going to be MB, which is pretty damned good. Josh Johnson is going to be.... hard to say. Will you get 2009 JJ who is going to eat some innings for you, or are you going to get the 07-08-11 version where he can't stay healthy and is an expensive DL trip? Romero was awful last year, and which one of him will you get? Normally i'd say it was something like Shields a few years ago, but he lost velo as well which is a bit scary. Happ is serviceable.

When it comes to offense, the Jays trump the Rays and I don't think you'll find anyone contesting that, but when it comes to runs saved and turning that into wins (while also stomaching a ******** of one run losses), the Rays still have that covered.

If JJ and RR can return to form the division will get real interesting. If.

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12-11-2012, 11:01 PM
  #116
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Pitching? The Jays still have issues with that rotation, with the only one really standing out being Buerhle.

The Rays were atrocious defensively last year, and have improved that quite a bit by getting rid of Brooks Conrad, Drew Sutton, Wil Rhymes from the infield. Not only did they improve defensively, they're looking pretty healthy to get more production offensively by having a healthy Longo, Escobar, replacing Pena with Loney which is fairly meh, but Loney can at least make contact with the ball. Penas batspeed and discipline really fell off last year. They should be able to put up more runs next year.

The Jays rotation is still a pretty massive question mark. MB is going to be MB, which is pretty damned good. Josh Johnson is going to be.... hard to say. Will you get 2009 JJ who is going to eat some innings for you, or are you going to get the 07-08-11 version where he can't stay healthy and is an expensive DL trip? Romero was awful last year, and which one of him will you get? Normally i'd say it was something like Shields a few years ago, but he lost velo as well which is a bit scary. Happ is serviceable.

When it comes to offense, the Jays trump the Rays and I don't think you'll find anyone contesting that, but when it comes to runs saved and turning that into wins (while also stomaching a ******** of one run losses), the Rays still have that covered.

If JJ and RR can return to form the division will get real interesting. If.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...hp?cid=1091208

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12-11-2012, 11:25 PM
  #117
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As a Rays fan I don't mind this trade really. Davis lost a competition for the last starting spot in spring training after a pretty meh 2011. He was a decent middle relief guy but our bullpen is fine even without him and we do still have Niemann, Cobb, Archer and now Odorizzi to plug into the final two rotation spots. Really nothing lost in moving Davis.

I liked Shields a lot but he was expendable and was going to be commanding some big time money. We free up cap space and bring in a potential middle of the lineup guy which we desperately need. I don't think our offense will be as god awful this year as it was last year.

The Rays still need a big bat from the DH position, if you ask me, since it's obvious they are content with Molina et al behind the plate. I think that'll be the key to our offense this year. I already think it looks better just by subtracting some of the plugs we had filling in at 3B and SS for most of the year. It would be great to get a new hitting coach as well but Maddon is too loyal.

It'll be fun to watch the AL East this year because I think the Jays will compete for a lot longer, the O's shouldn't regress, the Yankees are the Yankees, and I don't think the Red Sox will be as bad. You'll have 3 playoff teams from the East no doubt.

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12-12-2012, 12:08 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by Still All In View Post
Pitching? The Jays still have issues with that rotation, with the only one really standing out being Buerhle.

The Rays were atrocious defensively last year, and have improved that quite a bit by getting rid of Brooks Conrad, Drew Sutton, Wil Rhymes from the infield. Not only did they improve defensively, they're looking pretty healthy to get more production offensively by having a healthy Longo, Escobar, replacing Pena with Loney which is fairly meh, but Loney can at least make contact with the ball. Penas batspeed and discipline really fell off last year. They should be able to put up more runs next year.

The Jays rotation is still a pretty massive question mark. MB is going to be MB, which is pretty damned good. Josh Johnson is going to be.... hard to say. Will you get 2009 JJ who is going to eat some innings for you, or are you going to get the 07-08-11 version where he can't stay healthy and is an expensive DL trip? Romero was awful last year, and which one of him will you get? Normally i'd say it was something like Shields a few years ago, but he lost velo as well which is a bit scary. Happ is serviceable.

When it comes to offense, the Jays trump the Rays and I don't think you'll find anyone contesting that, but when it comes to runs saved and turning that into wins (while also stomaching a ******** of one run losses), the Rays still have that covered.

If JJ and RR can return to form the division will get real interesting. If.
Your explanation is the exact problem I mentioned in that post. That you're assuming the Blue Jays will suffer problems while assuming that the Rays go problem-free the entire season. Speaking of Josh Johnson's inability to stay healthy, Evan Longoria hasn't ever played an entire 162-game season either.

Like I said, the only way we can evaluate the teams right now is on paper. On paper, the Blue Jays are the better team right now.

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12-12-2012, 12:10 AM
  #119
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The Jays are not a better team on paper than TB.

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12-12-2012, 12:42 AM
  #120
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The Jays are not a better team on paper than TB.
I know the Rays still have a very good pitching staff, but their offense is a mess right now.

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12-12-2012, 07:02 PM
  #121
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Your explanation is the exact problem I mentioned in that post. That you're assuming the Blue Jays will suffer problems while assuming that the Rays go problem-free the entire season. Speaking of Josh Johnson's inability to stay healthy, Evan Longoria hasn't ever played an entire 162-game season either.

Like I said, the only way we can evaluate the teams right now is on paper. On paper, the Blue Jays are the better team right now.
Offensively yes, pitching no, and say what you will but the two offenses weren't that far apart last year... 19 runs. Both have upgraded, and dumped some dead weight.

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12-12-2012, 08:54 PM
  #122
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Offensively yes, pitching no, and say what you will but the two offenses weren't that far apart last year... 19 runs. Both have upgraded, and dumped some dead weight.
No, not really. The Jays added Reyes and Melky Cabrera while the Rays lost Upton and Keppinger, while only adding Yunel Escobar, who's very inconsistent with the bat.

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12-13-2012, 08:57 AM
  #123
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I hope Wil Myers is what the hype around him says to be. Would be awesome to have him reach his potential and have a crazy rookie year. I am just curious as to when he is going to get his shot on the big club.

AL East is always kinda weird though really hard to argue who will win it. Last year how many of us picked the O's to contend and show up like they did. Best to just wait and see how the season starts to go. Injuries will be the telling factor though i think.

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12-13-2012, 10:12 AM
  #124
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I hope Wil Myers is what the hype around him says to be. Would be awesome to have him reach his potential and have a crazy rookie year. I am just curious as to when he is going to get his shot on the big club.

AL East is always kinda weird though really hard to argue who will win it. Last year how many of us picked the O's to contend and show up like they did. Best to just wait and see how the season starts to go. Injuries will be the telling factor though i think.
Why Wil Myers will start the year in AAA

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12-13-2012, 10:40 AM
  #125
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Good article thanks for the link.

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