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Old
12-10-2012, 10:17 AM
  #251
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Originally Posted by SphinX View Post
With 3 balls we should have a good shot at minimum a top 5..

Eddy on the other hand should get the last one tho..

One more 1st Overall to them the next 5 years would be a parody..
I think you're overestimating the odds. Quick envelope math says the odds of us getting a top 5 pick are around 30%. That's less than one in three. The odds of a top 10 pick are around 65% or failing slightly more often than one in three times. In the 2005 draft (where there were substantially fewer "3 ball" teams, one of them ended up with the 13th pick (Buffalo) and one with the 16th pick (NYR) while the other two had 1st (Pittsburgh) and 6th (Columbus).

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12-10-2012, 11:58 AM
  #252
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I'd be greatly satisfied with a 5-8 pick, yet alone the 1st overall pick.

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12-10-2012, 01:06 PM
  #253
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
I think you're overestimating the odds. Quick envelope math says the odds of us getting a top 5 pick are around 30%. That's less than one in three. The odds of a top 10 pick are around 65% or failing slightly more often than one in three times. In the 2005 draft (where there were substantially fewer "3 ball" teams, one of them ended up with the 13th pick (Buffalo) and one with the 16th pick (NYR) while the other two had 1st (Pittsburgh) and 6th (Columbus).
I wanted to phrase something a little clearer out of this about the odds:

The odds of us picking top 5 are worse than the odds of us picking outside of the top 10 (assuming 2005 lottery rules). While we do have a decent chance of ending up with a high pick, "one in three" is far from a sure high pick. We could easily end up in the back half of the draft.

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12-10-2012, 01:27 PM
  #254
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I think if we don't see a season, we may see a trade. Just sooo many prospects would be in our system (another elite-ish, two medium tiers, etc - which isn't bad, I just think it's a good way to bait for someone like a Ryan, Pavelski, Vanek- someone on D actually might be more plausible) - but here's the thing..there actually isn't many players in this league that are tradeable right now. Even those three guys I just listed are more of me just naming three guys- I don't actually have evidence they could be traded for. And I certainly wouldn't be mad if we ended up with ANOTHER top ten pick, especially in this draft. Just we have so many prospects, we might be able to trade for proven talent. Cap space I suppose also must be kept in mind. Heatley might be replaced instead of resigned, PMB will not play another game, but I see Granlund, Coyle, and Zucker all coming into the line up next season (permanently). So maybe a defenseman if anything would be traded for,

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12-10-2012, 01:32 PM
  #255
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I kind of like the logjam. There's nothing wrong with having your young players coming into the NHL at 23-24, instead 20-21. A guy like Phillips, or Bulmer or Graovac or anybody could play in the AHL for 3-4 years before a spot opens up and I think that can be mostly beneficial. If he can get into the position where all of our young players spend at least a year or two down there, we'll be in good shape.

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12-10-2012, 01:41 PM
  #256
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Originally Posted by Dr Jan Itor View Post
I kind of like the logjam. There's nothing wrong with having your young players coming into the NHL at 23-24, instead 20-21. A guy like Phillips, or Bulmer or Graovac or anybody could play in the AHL for 3-4 years before a spot opens up and I think that can be mostly beneficial. If he can get into the position where all of our young players spend at least a year or two down there, we'll be in good shape.
And I totally agree with this. Nothing wrong- just was thinking of what admin may choose to do.

Too many top prospects in our farm system is by far the worst decision ever..said no one ever.

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Old
12-10-2012, 01:48 PM
  #257
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Originally Posted by Dr Jan Itor View Post
I kind of like the logjam. There's nothing wrong with having your young players coming into the NHL at 23-24, instead 20-21. A guy like Phillips, or Bulmer or Graovac or anybody could play in the AHL for 3-4 years before a spot opens up and I think that can be mostly beneficial. If he can get into the position where all of our young players spend at least a year or two down there, we'll be in good shape.
Yup. Pretty much the ideal system. Seems like how the Red Wings have done it since forever.

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Old
12-10-2012, 01:50 PM
  #258
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Haula can play another year at the U after this then 1-2 in Houston...that should give him plenty of time.

We've seen a lot of "meh" prospects that hit the A and fizzle out...like Foucault, Almond, and McMillan. Haula could be another one of those guys.

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12-10-2012, 01:53 PM
  #259
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Haula can play another year at the U after this then 1-2 in Houston...that should give him plenty of time.

We've seen a lot of "meh" prospects that hit the A and fizzle out...like Foucault, Almond, and McMillan. Haula could be another one of those guys.
Pretty sure Haula can become a Free-agent this summer if the Wild dont sign him. I dont think he signs with the Wild if they ask him to play his senior year.

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Old
12-10-2012, 02:02 PM
  #260
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Haula can play another year at the U after this then 1-2 in Houston...that should give him plenty of time.

We've seen a lot of "meh" prospects that hit the A and fizzle out...like Foucault, Almond, and McMillan. Haula could be another one of those guys.
I don't think Foucault has fizzled. Just a meh prospect doing meh. Hes a very good AHL role player. This is only his second season. As for Haula, let's hope not.

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Old
12-11-2012, 08:58 PM
  #261
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I've posted this on the Trade board, but what about Setoguchi+2nd for Volchenkov? Seto can fill their hole at wing and Volchenkov can anchor our second pairing with Spurgeon/Gilbert. I think Volchenkov would be willing to waive his NTC since he at least has Parise on the team.

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Old
12-11-2012, 09:21 PM
  #262
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kris Chreider View Post
I've posted this on the Trade board, but what about Setoguchi+2nd for Volchenkov? Seto can fill their hole at wing and Volchenkov can anchor our second pairing with Spurgeon/Gilbert. I think Volchenkov would be willing to waive his NTC since he at least has Parise on the team.
We shouldn't be throwing 2nd round picks around like candy. Setoguchi can fetch a very decent return from some teams.

Besides, as I've stated earlier, it won't do Scandy any harm to play on the 2nd pairing. He seems to have some good chemistry going with Gilbert, and it's still developing. And we need Seto for our 2nd line.

Let's look at it this way: If the NHL returns in 12-13, our lines will be something like this:

21 ****ing millions
Cullen-FBJ-Setoguchi
Bouchard-Brodziak-Clutterbuck
Mitchell-Konopka-Powe
Veilleux

If Bouchard decides he's done or hits his head on the pillow too hard, we're moving Mitchell to 3rd line LW and Veilleux to 4th. Matt Cullen might be fine on the 2nd line, and we have Coyle, Zucker, Phillips and potentially Larsson in case we need a top-6 call-up.

Now to the D:

Suter - Spurgeon
Scandella-Gilbert
Falk-Stoner
Prosser

The biggest hole we have is the lack of a #3/4 guy. Scandella could/should develop into one, but it's unsure whether he is one right now or not. Our 3rd pairing... Well... Less said about it, the better I guess. The good thing is that we have some depth for that, and Brodin might be able to help with our problem already this season when he comes back from the injury. That being said, a gem like him shouldn't be rushed to the NHL.

Our goaltending's fine as it has been since Bäcks arrived.


Conclusion? Don't make a trade just for the sake of making one. We already look vastly different than just two years ago, no need to shake it up even further. This is already a playoff team, and if the kids develop as expected, we might be a contender inside five years or so.

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Old
12-11-2012, 10:01 PM
  #263
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I'd rather improve the right side of our D than the left. The Processor better not be in the starting roster on the 3rd pairing next to Stoner.

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Old
12-11-2012, 10:21 PM
  #264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kris Chreider View Post
I've posted this on the Trade board, but what about Setoguchi+2nd for Volchenkov? Seto can fill their hole at wing and Volchenkov can anchor our second pairing with Spurgeon/Gilbert. I think Volchenkov would be willing to waive his NTC since he at least has Parise on the team.
He's had a hard enough time staying healthy in his prime years (missing an average of 16 games per year over the last 5; none of which were fully healthy), I don't see that improving. Plus it adds salary, which is probably something we shouldn't do at the moment. Chuck seems to like his 2nd rounders lately as well. Pass for me.

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12-12-2012, 08:33 AM
  #265
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Trading a young winger whose value is at an all-time low, plus a pick, for an old(er) defenseman sounds unwise.

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Old
12-12-2012, 09:45 AM
  #266
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kris Chreider View Post
I've posted this on the Trade board, but what about Setoguchi+2nd for Volchenkov? Seto can fill their hole at wing and Volchenkov can anchor our second pairing with Spurgeon/Gilbert. I think Volchenkov would be willing to waive his NTC since he at least has Parise on the team.
No thanks.

Need Setoguchi. Bouchard and Cullen are on their way out.

Wild have been great with their 2nd rounders.

Pretty eh on Volchenkov.

Confident in our blueline moving forward.

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12-12-2012, 10:03 AM
  #267
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Would have loved Volchenkov 5 years ago, not now. He's going to break down quickly at his age and playing style.

Seto reportedly is in much better shape and I would guess he has a real nice bounce-back year.

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12-12-2012, 10:55 AM
  #268
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Out of all of our top six wingers not named Parise, Setoguchi is the one that I want to see on the team for awhile. Heatley is still talented and a great leader but by the time his deal is up, all of our top forward prospects on the Aeros should be developed enough to be in pushing for a stop on the team. The other top six winger on the Wild is Bouchard and I think it's a unanimous decision to just let him go after this season.

Setoguchi is still young and I understand he'll probably never get close to repeating that 30+ goal season but I want to see what he can do with more talent in our top six.

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12-12-2012, 11:13 AM
  #269
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One of the reasons I really want to see hockey this season is to see how Bouchard does...if he performs well and up to his potential I wouldn't mind offering him a short inexpensive contract.

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12-12-2012, 11:32 AM
  #270
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He's as good as gone.

All indications are the salary cap will be about $60M in 2013-14 and the Wild have $51M committed but need to sign another goalie, new deals for Clutter, Scandella, Spurgeon, and Falk, and replace Butch and Cullen up front.

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12-12-2012, 12:21 PM
  #271
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He's as good as gone.

All indications are the salary cap will be about $60M in 2013-14 and the Wild have $51M committed but need to sign another goalie, new deals for Clutter, Scandella, Spurgeon, and Falk, and replace Butch and Cullen up front.
Scandella. Sure.
Spurgeon. Why?
Falk. Why?

Just curious as to what hole Spurgeon fills that can't be filled by someone better...

Suter, Gilbert, Scandella, Brodin

With Prosser, Falk, Stoner, Spurgeon, et. al... Fighting for the 5-6?

With Genoway being on a 1-way next season?

/shrug

Falk really needs a season because he won't have a job next year if the season is missed...

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12-12-2012, 12:24 PM
  #272
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One of the reasons I really want to see hockey this season is to see how Bouchard does...if he performs well and up to his potential I wouldn't mind offering him a short inexpensive contract.
Butch still isn't recovered fully from his concussion. He needs to retire or go play in the swiss league for his long-term health. Cullen is likewise gone, unless re-signed as a 4th line center top-9 fill-in. Clutterbuck, I also feel like maybe on the way out, especially if he asks for a lot.

Got to think Setoguchi, Coyle, and Zucker are the future wingers starting next season.

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12-12-2012, 12:26 PM
  #273
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Originally Posted by bozak911 View Post
Scandella. Sure.
Spurgeon. Why?
Falk. Why?

Just curious as to what hole Spurgeon fills that can't be filled by someone better...

Suter, Gilbert, Scandella, Brodin

With Prosser, Falk, Stoner, Spurgeon, et. al... Fighting for the 5-6?

With Genoway being on a 1-way next season?

/shrug

Falk really needs a season because he won't have a job next year if the season is missed...
Spurgeon has shown enough for us to not just let him walk. He can play 3rd pairing/secondary PP minutes.

I don't think Genoway is on a 1-way either.

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12-12-2012, 12:27 PM
  #274
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Spurgeon has shown enough for us to not just let him walk. He can play 3rd pairing/secondary PP minutes.
Sure can... However, I wouldn't get my pantaloons in a twist if he was packaged in a trade... It won't happen. Evar. At least as long as Yeo is coach.

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12-12-2012, 12:29 PM
  #275
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Originally Posted by bozak911 View Post
Scandella. Sure.
Spurgeon. Why?
Falk. Why?

Just curious as to what hole Spurgeon fills that can't be filled by someone better...

Suter, Gilbert, Scandella, Brodin

With Prosser, Falk, Stoner, Spurgeon, et. al... Fighting for the 5-6?

With Genoway being on a 1-way next season?

/shrug

Falk really needs a season because he won't have a job next year if the season is missed...
Spurgeon, ideally, is fighting Kampfer, Genoway, and Connelly for the bottom-pairing, puck-mover role. I'm very comfortable with him in that spot across from Stoner or Falk. He's been a step above those guys in the past.

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