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Leafs ranked 20th by Hockey's Future.

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12-12-2012, 12:06 AM
  #576
The Apologist
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Originally Posted by diceman934 View Post
My opinion is that it is not a slam dunk that he resigns here.....as well as he is not going to produce 80 point seasons on average for 10 more years if he does stay here that long....
My opinion is that he will be the first Leaf since Dougie to break the 100 point mark, several times. And will retire a Leaf. I have just as much proof of my opinion as you do of yours. Shall we call it a draw?

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12-12-2012, 12:07 AM
  #577
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Originally Posted by CrazeeEddie View Post
This is actually the first reply to this that makes any sense. I don't think overall Detroit's prospects are any better than ours (apparently THN agrees) but at least an argument such as yours can be made. Thank you for restoring my faith in HF.
Thanks I'm glad you understood what I was trying to say. I was worried that it wouldn't make sense. I don't post that often because sometimes I have a hard time articulating what's in my head to paper (computer) or even trying to explain in conversation to someone.

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12-12-2012, 12:09 AM
  #578
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Originally Posted by Urban Explorer View Post
Thanks I'm glad you understood what I was trying to say. I was worried that it wouldn't make sense. I don't post that often because sometimes I have a hard time articulating what's in my head to paper (computer) or even trying to explain in conversation to someone.
No problem, with that I need sleep. Got in some good discussion, some razzing of DO (day just isn't complete without it), and some pure nonsense. Job well done. Goodnight folks!

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12-12-2012, 12:11 AM
  #579
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Originally Posted by CrazeeEddie View Post
My opinion is that he will be the first Leaf since Dougie to break the 100 point mark, several times. And will retire a Leaf. I have just as much proof of my opinion as you do of yours. Shall we call it a draw?
We are only talking about opinions so there can be no winner.....so yes a draw at this point.

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12-12-2012, 12:11 AM
  #580
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Originally Posted by Disgruntled Observer View Post
So you're comparing players based entirely on a stats sheet.
Very intelligent.

Do you really think that that's how these prospect rankings are created? By just looking at stat sheets?
Unbelievable.
Nope. I don't have nearly that much faith in the guys who put them together.

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12-12-2012, 12:12 AM
  #581
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Originally Posted by diceman934 View Post
We are only talking about opinions so there can be no winner.....so yes a draw at this point.
A draw it is. Have a good one!

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12-12-2012, 12:25 AM
  #582
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Originally Posted by 7even View Post
Nope. I don't have nearly that much faith in the guys who put them together.
So even though you haven't even seen most of the prospects in the league play at any level... you think you know better than consensus formed from professional nhl scouts.

What's next?

You think the leafs won the stanley cup last year, and you don't care what those pesky standings tell you? The standings are just "biased".

Burkes fantastic. It doesn't matter that the team finished 5th last last season, or the consensus of professional nhl scouts think our prospecgts are pathetic.
Burke's a hero.

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12-12-2012, 02:14 AM
  #583
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Originally Posted by Disgruntled Observer View Post
So even though you haven't even seen most of the prospects in the league play at any level... you think you know better than consensus formed from professional nhl scouts.
As knowledgeable as the scouts are about the players they scout, players prove them wrong on every turn, either by busting, or becoming a "diamonds in the rough". Looking back on HF's previous years' top 5 prospects for each team, it's been shown that about half of them turned out to be busts, and from the rest, anyone with half a brain could have picked out players were going to be stars in the league.

When you take that less than 50% prediction accuracy from scouts observing a player, and you collect the observations from numerous scouts (with no real good way to standardize those observations), you end up with a pretty unreliable result. If they had to re-compile teams' prospect rankings from 5 years ago with 20-20 hindsight, the results would be vastly different.

They're doing the best they can, better than any of us could, most likely, but I wouldn't bet my life savings on any of their rankings.

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12-12-2012, 03:57 AM
  #584
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Originally Posted by 4evaBlue View Post
As knowledgeable as the scouts are about the players they scout, players prove them wrong on every turn, either by busting, or becoming a "diamonds in the rough". Looking back on HF's previous years' top 5 prospects for each team, it's been shown that about half of them turned out to be busts, and from the rest, anyone with half a brain could have picked out players were going to be stars in the league.

When you take that less than 50% prediction accuracy from scouts observing a player, and you collect the observations from numerous scouts (with no real good way to standardize those observations), you end up with a pretty unreliable result. If they had to re-compile teams' prospect rankings from 5 years ago with 20-20 hindsight, the results would be vastly different.

They're doing the best they can, better than any of us could, most likely, but I wouldn't bet my life savings on any of their rankings.
I don't base my opinions on prospects solely on ranking lists either.

But I certainly trust the opinions of dozens of professional nhl scouts MUCH more than random people on an internet message board who have a proven track record of being dramatically influenced by their pro-leaf bias.

When we show hf threads from four years ago, leaf fans rant and rave about how great the leafs prospects are. Those same leaf fans now call that team an "empty cupboard" and use it as an excuse for Burke's failures.
So you really can't trust what a lot of leaf fans say.
And I don't think most fans of other teams are like that. When most fans see their team (after four years) finish 5th last and have pathetically rated prospects, they get mad.... They don't make lame excuses.

I personally think the leafs prospects are entirely mediocre. I've been saying it very often for over a year now.
And it just so happens that both HF and the professional nhl scouts at the Hockey News entirely agree with me.

So it does beg the question...
being that Burke's team finished 5th last last season, and both HF and the professional nhl scouts at the hockey news think we have utterly mediocre prospects... how could people possibly still support Burke?
It really really is getting a little out of hand.

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Old
12-12-2012, 06:45 AM
  #585
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazeeEddie View Post
My opinion is that he will be the first Leaf since Dougie to break the 100 point mark, several times. And will retire a Leaf. I have just as much proof of my opinion as you do of yours. Shall we call it a draw?
I think he can be a regular 75-85 point guy, Not sure about 100+ considering he's a pretty streaky player. Not sure he will resign with the Leafs though.

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Old
12-12-2012, 06:54 AM
  #586
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It scares me that Phil Kessel would want to re-sign here. Muskoka 5 fear. This team has not competed on any level since he's arrived - and he's ok with that? Ok with the status quo? No thanks.

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12-12-2012, 07:02 AM
  #587
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The problem with our prospect pool (at least, in the context of forwards), is that most are at or near their best-before date.

If Kadri & Frattin don't make the NHL as soon as it's back, they'll fall into the bust category. Joe Colborne might already be there. Carter Ashton definitely has to step up his offensive game to avoid going the way of Luca Caputi.

In terms of quality prospects (using a somewhat arbitrary measure of minimum 7.0C rating on HF), that basically leaves Tyler Biggs, Greg McKegg, and Brad Ross.

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12-12-2012, 07:34 AM
  #588
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bomber0104 View Post
This changes nothing.

With Raycroft: almost playoffs
With AUbin: no playoffs

With Kessel: no playoffs
WIthout Kessel: no playoffs

Kessel cost a metric ton of prospects
Raycroft cost one excellent prospect.
Raycroft cost us a goalie prospect that could have been the #1 goalie that we've been looking for since Eddie left, not to mention he was rated the best goalie prospect in the world at the time. So yeah, Raycroft knid of did cost us a metric tonne of a prospect.

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12-12-2012, 07:36 AM
  #589
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Originally Posted by Bomber0104 View Post
Its possible but unlikely by all accounts. Dougie Hamilton is the highest rated defensive prospect on the planet right now.

Kessel doesnt cycle and play a puck game like Jagr.

I miss Wade Belak. Reminds me of the days when the Leafs werent an AHL club.
You do realize that Aki Berg was once a highly rated D prospect as well don't you?

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Old
12-12-2012, 07:38 AM
  #590
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Originally Posted by 4evaBlue View Post
They're doing the best they can, better than any of us could, most likely, but I wouldn't bet my life savings on any of their rankings.
That is why the 20th ranking should be of concern. Yeah most likely lol are better equipped to make an unbiased judgement than anyone here.

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12-12-2012, 08:12 AM
  #591
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Originally Posted by Stix and Stones View Post
That is why the 20th ranking should be of concern. Yeah most likely lol are better equipped to make an unbiased judgement than anyone here.
It's ok. Individually, our prospects are better than those of the 11th ranked team, all is good.

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12-12-2012, 09:22 AM
  #592
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Do the experts at HF cross the country to watch these prospects play?

I always assumed the were no different than anyone else here, just more time on their hands.

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