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Alex Galchenyuk Thread 6.0 - "Gally Got Backhand" Edition

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Old
12-12-2012, 07:06 PM
  #901
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
You are completely ignoring all of the potential positive improvements that can take place with this team. How will we ever replace the production from Cammalleri and Kostitsyn......considering they were both brutal last year I think it is more than reasonable to assume that Gionta and Bourque can surpass their measly production. You mention Subban and Gorges as our 1st pairing while conveniently leaving out the possibility that Markov could have been in that equation if he was healthy.

There is also the natural progression of youth such as Subban, Pacioretty, Desharnais, Eller, Emelin, Diaz and Price. Each one of these players are very capable of improving on their 2011-12 season. Let's also not dismiss the fact that there will be a change of attitude on the team with a new coaching staff and the addition of heart and soul players such as Prust, Armstrong and Bouillon.

It is likely that the team will improve to some extent but that has yet to be quantified. To ignore all of these factors for the sake of supporting a weak arguement was very transparent. It would be much more palatable for myself and others if you discussed this without displaying such a bias and clear agenda.
Plus, the horrendous coaching we've had after JM got fired.

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12-12-2012, 07:08 PM
  #902
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I don't get why people don't think Galchenyuk won't greatly improve this team.
An 18 year old Galchenyuk would probably put up around a 0.5 PPG in a 40 game-ish season as he learns the league. I think that would be a realistic expectation.

That's not changing much to the team's fortunes. Maybe it gets you an extra win or two.

All the more reason why he shouldn't be here this season.

As for this division debate, I think it's irrelevant. Boston would win it going away anyway. And chances are we'll play those division rivals the same amount of times we'll play the other teams in the Conference, so comparing us to Buffalo or Ottawa isn't any different than looking at the 10 other teams in the Conference. And I can't see us overtaking either BUF or OTT unless major injuries hit those teams.

I struggle to find 2 Eastern teams I'd be certain would finish after us, let alone 7. Especially with an average coach at best in place. The Islanders will likely add Strome and added Visnovsky. Toronto is most likely going to add a competent goalie because Burke's job is probably on the line and picking up JVR+McClement were steps forward. That leaves...huh? Carolina? A much better team compared to what they were after the season. Maybe Florida comes crashing back down to earth. Maybe. Tampa has a goalie now.

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12-12-2012, 07:34 PM
  #903
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Originally Posted by HankyZetts View Post
Ok, I will give it to you, there are definitely some similarities there.
God forbid he plays a similar game to the guy that is 4th in all-time scoring.

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12-12-2012, 07:42 PM
  #904
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
An 18 year old Galchenyuk would probably put up around a 0.5 PPG in a 40 game-ish season as he learns the league. I think that would be a realistic expectation.

That's not changing much to the team's fortunes. Maybe it gets you an extra win or two.

All the more reason why he shouldn't be here this season.

As for this division debate, I think it's irrelevant. Boston would win it going away anyway. And chances are we'll play those division rivals the same amount of times we'll play the other teams in the Conference, so comparing us to Buffalo or Ottawa isn't any different than looking at the 10 other teams in the Conference. And I can't see us overtaking either BUF or OTT unless major injuries hit those teams.

I struggle to find 2 Eastern teams I'd be certain would finish after us, let alone 7. Especially with an average coach at best in place. The Islanders will likely add Strome and added Visnovsky. Toronto is most likely going to add a competent goalie because Burke's job is probably on the line and picking up JVR+McClement were steps forward. That leaves...huh? Carolina? A much better team compared to what they were after the season. Maybe Florida comes crashing back down to earth. Maybe. Tampa has a goalie now.
You cant deny that Galchenyuk would improve our PP drastically and add a serious talent injection we badly need.. Im not saying he will be an impact player at his first lets say 15-20 games but taking in consideration how smart he is, its not unrealistic to think he will improve quick enough and be a key player for us in the second half..

With Galchenyuk in the line-up, we have the potential to roll 2 very very solid top lines and a very good checking line in Moen Eller Prust.. Without Gally, our depth is too thin to be considered playoffs material.. Considering Bergevin and Therrien wanna win right now, the Galchenyuk option is certainly a very good one..

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12-12-2012, 07:44 PM
  #905
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
An 18 year old Galchenyuk would probably put up around a 0.5 PPG in a 40 game-ish season as he learns the league. I think that would be a realistic expectation.

That's not changing much to the team's fortunes. Maybe it gets you an extra win or two.

All the more reason why he shouldn't be here this season.

As for this division debate, I think it's irrelevant. Boston would win it going away anyway. And chances are we'll play those division rivals the same amount of times we'll play the other teams in the Conference, so comparing us to Buffalo or Ottawa isn't any different than looking at the 10 other teams in the Conference. And I can't see us overtaking either BUF or OTT unless major injuries hit those teams.

I struggle to find 2 Eastern teams I'd be certain would finish after us, let alone 7. Especially with an average coach at best in place. The Islanders will likely add Strome and added Visnovsky. Toronto is most likely going to add a competent goalie because Burke's job is probably on the line and picking up JVR+McClement were steps forward. That leaves...huh? Carolina? A much better team compared to what they were after the season. Maybe Florida comes crashing back down to earth. Maybe. Tampa has a goalie now.
Toronto, Carolina, Tampa Bay and NYI were all awful to the point that small to medium improvements aren't likely to bring them back to average.

Florida, Washington and Buffalo are well positioned to sink in the standings.

After the top 5 and Ottawa the depth of flaws in ever team in the East are such that they can sink to the bottom. Montreal just suffered for their flaws the most last time.



Markov is off course the X-Factor. If he can anchor a 2nd pairing and be a leader on the PP MTL goes from awful to average to above average on the blueline. That the Habs have been unusually heavily injured these past few years is essentially the story of Markov. They haven't been that unfortunate past him but he plays a very high leverage position and has missed a lot of time.

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12-12-2012, 07:52 PM
  #906
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Originally Posted by HankyZetts View Post
Imo that may be the worst one so far. Very different game compared to Francis, in my eyes. I still like Malkin the best, with bits of Hossa (the way he keeps his stick tight to his body) and maybe a bit of the stick checking of Toews on the forecheck. He's really good at takeaways.
Yes I am that poster who compares Galchenyuk to a young Ron Francis. I'm an older lad, I remember Francis playing lights out when Lemieux went down and took over the series against the Rangers I think. Lemieux came back and took the spotlight but the unsung hero was Franchise Francis. I think Gally will have a career similar to Francis. For the younger generation, Brad Richards is as close comparison to a poor Ron Francis.

I've also had a chance to see some of the Habs draftees and these are my comparisons.

Alex Galchenyuk = Ron Francis
Sebastian Collberg = Haven't seen enough to make comparison
Dalton Thrower = James Wisniewski
Tim Bozon = Haven't seen enough to make comparison
Brady Vail = Chad Kilger/Blake Geofferion
Charles Hudon = Mike Cammalleri
Nathan Beaulieu = Steve Duchesne
Jarred Tinordi = Hal Gill/Mark Tinordi lite
Morgan Ellis = Zbynek Michalek
Brendan Gallagher = Brian Gionta
Louis Leblanc = Valeri Kamensky
Michael Bournival = I really like this kid, if he was in Philly he'll be in the NHL by now, he's very strong on the puck and should develop into a 3rd line center. I can't think of any player right now, maybe David Bolland.
Gabriel Dumont = Darcy Tucker

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12-12-2012, 07:57 PM
  #907
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
There were no freak injuries last year, it was a comparable amount of injuries to what we suffer every single year except for 2007-08. I'll note that we had no injuries to our number 1 goalie (Price), no injuries to our 1st defensive pairing (Subban+Gorges), no injuries to our two best wingers (Cole, Pacioretty), and no injuries to our best forward and center (Plekanec), or any of our centers actually.

The second factor is that the roster we ended the year with is weaker than the roster we started the year with. We lost Hal Gill, Andrei Kostitsyn, and Michael Cammalleri, and replaced them with Francis Bouillon, Rene Bourque and Brandon Prust. Unlike last year, we wouldn't benefit from a 12th place team in the first 30 or 40 games racking up a safety margin over 15th place. We'd go straight to that 15th place.

The third factor is that the division got stronger. Boston will be about the same, but Ottawa, Toronto, and Buffalo should all improve. Buffalo is adding Cody Hodgson and John Scott (no more Lucic running into Miller), Toronto is rumored to be adding Roberto Luongo, and Ottawa is a young, good team.

***************

The 2012 draft will help this team, but not in the 2012-2013 season, and probably not in the 2013-2014 season.
You can't ignore that the team was expecting to have Markov. That's why we got rid of Hamrlik and the Wiz. Now that we can (for the most part) expect a healthy Markov it drastically changes the makeup of this team.

Losing Gionta was a huge blow as well. It greatly affected the makeup of our lines.

Cammy was as ineffective as Bourque was plain and simple. There's no guarantee that Bourque will do better than last year but it's a very good chance he will.

Armstrong if healthy is a great third liner. Who can score almost as many goals as AK has in the past few years.

I'm a little leary of analysis that looks at stats of leaving players and says 'where are those goals going to come from?'. It ignores a lot of intangibles that can measure success (albeit speculatively).Having team toughness addressed can bolster point totals IMO. Players play more confident.

You also have to count on our youth improving as well. Eller, PK, Diaz, Emelin, White. Even DD and Patches have a chance at improving as well.

Just to qualify all this, I kind of hope we stink this year to get a top 5 but some posters are a little too confident that that will be the case. Realistically we're a playoff bubble team but with a shortened season every team can be a contender.

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12-12-2012, 08:25 PM
  #908
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Originally Posted by makbowles View Post
You can't ignore that the team was expecting to have Markov. That's why we got rid of Hamrlik and the Wiz. Now that we can (for the most part) expect a healthy Markov it drastically changes the makeup of this team.

Losing Gionta was a huge blow as well. It greatly affected the makeup of our lines.

Cammy was as ineffective as Bourque was plain and simple. There's no guarantee that Bourque will do better than last year but it's a very good chance he will.

Armstrong if healthy is a great third liner. Who can score almost as many goals as AK has in the past few years.

I'm a little leary of analysis that looks at stats of leaving players and says 'where are those goals going to come from?'. It ignores a lot of intangibles that can measure success (albeit speculatively).Having team toughness addressed can bolster point totals IMO. Players play more confident.

You also have to count on our youth improving as well. Eller, PK, Diaz, Emelin, White. Even DD and Patches have a chance at improving as well.

Just to qualify all this, I kind of hope we stink this year to get a top 5 but some posters are a little too confident that that will be the case. Realistically we're a playoff bubble team but with a shortened season every team can be a contender.
Almost identical to my post lol

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12-12-2012, 08:37 PM
  #909
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
Almost identical to my post lol
hahaha. It's funny because I glanced at your post and saw that I generally agreed with it but the specific details didn't register. I actually thought, 'that's a good post by EP, I think I'll add to it'. Didn't add much, hahaha.

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12-12-2012, 08:57 PM
  #910
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
There were no freak injuries last year, it was a comparable amount of injuries to what we suffer every single year except for 2007-08. I'll note that we had no injuries to our number 1 goalie (Price), no injuries to our 1st defensive pairing (Subban+Gorges), no injuries to our two best wingers (Cole, Pacioretty), and no injuries to our best forward and center (Plekanec), or any of our centers actually.

The second factor is that the roster we ended the year with is weaker than the roster we started the year with. We lost Hal Gill, Andrei Kostitsyn, and Michael Cammalleri, and replaced them with Francis Bouillon, Rene Bourque and Brandon Prust. Unlike last year, we wouldn't benefit from a 12th place team in the first 30 or 40 games racking up a safety margin over 15th place. We'd go straight to that 15th place.

The third factor is that the division got stronger. Boston will be about the same, but Ottawa, Toronto, and Buffalo should all improve. Buffalo is adding Cody Hodgson and John Scott (no more Lucic running into Miller), Toronto is rumored to be adding Roberto Luongo, and Ottawa is a young, good team.

***************

The 2012 draft will help this team, but not in the 2012-2013 season, and probably not in the 2013-2014 season.
Andrei Markov.

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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
An 18 year old Galchenyuk would probably put up around a 0.5 PPG in a 40 game-ish season as he learns the league. I think that would be a realistic expectation.

That's not changing much to the team's fortunes. Maybe it gets you an extra win or two.

All the more reason why he shouldn't be here this season.
That's a giant leap based on a gigantic assumption. I wouldn't limit Galchenyuk to anything really. Why not wait and see? I think he is better than most of our forwards already. No question that helps us win imo.

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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
As for this division debate, I think it's irrelevant. Boston would win it going away anyway. And chances are we'll play those division rivals the same amount of times we'll play the other teams in the Conference, so comparing us to Buffalo or Ottawa isn't any different than looking at the 10 other teams in the Conference. And I can't see us overtaking either BUF or OTT unless major injuries hit those teams.
I don't see anything about BUF or OTT that scares me, frankly.

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I struggle to find 2 Eastern teams I'd be certain would finish after us, let alone 7. Especially with an average coach at best in place. The Islanders will likely add Strome and added Visnovsky. Toronto is most likely going to add a competent goalie because Burke's job is probably on the line and picking up JVR+McClement were steps forward. That leaves...huh? Carolina? A much better team compared to what they were after the season. Maybe Florida comes crashing back down to earth. Maybe. Tampa has a goalie now.
Meh, we can beat any of those teams based on three simple facts, Andrei Markov, Pk Subban and Carey Price. You add Galchenyuk to our PP and to Plekanec or Ellers wing instead of Darche, and you're telling me that's not a big improvement? We have a very good team, imo. One more first rate forward and you're talking a deep run into the playoffs.

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God forbid he plays a similar game to the guy that is 4th in all-time scoring.

I didn't mean it as a slight to Ronny. I forgot how mobile he was as a younger player, that's all. There are some similarities there, but I still much rather the more common comparisons(Malkin, Hossa)

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12-12-2012, 09:13 PM
  #911
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Originally Posted by NewHabsEra View Post
You cant deny that Galchenyuk would improve our PP drastically and add a serious talent injection we badly need.. Im not saying he will be an impact player at his first lets say 15-20 games but taking in consideration how smart he is, its not unrealistic to think he will improve quick enough and be a key player for us in the second half..
I just think counting on an 18 year old - no matter how good he is - to suddenly make a big impact in a 40-50 game season that will be unique and likely crazy is a big leap of faith. I fully expect that the league will be at a very high level from the start due to shortened schedule, teams know there will be little margin for error.

20-25 points in that type of season would be realistic production.

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Considering Bergevin and Therrien wanna win right now, the Galchenyuk option is certainly a very good one..
If they were truly in ''win now'' mode, the UFA strategy would have been different. Bouillon was a bandaid type move because all the big stay-at-home D's got 2+ years on July 1 and it seemed obvious they did not want to block the way for a Tinordi or an Ellis or a Pateryn in that role next fall.

Armstrong and Prust are checkers. There was a far bigger need in the top 6 if they wanted to win now.

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Toronto, Carolina, Tampa Bay and NYI were all awful to the point that small to medium improvements aren't likely to bring them back to average.
CAR, TB and NYI did more than us in the off-season and they finished ahead of us when we last saw NHL hockey.

Lindback should be an improvement over the atrocious, worst in the league type goaltending TB got. They also added Salo and Carle, who improve their weak D. They still have the 3 big guns up front. Connolly also seems poised for a breakout based on his AHL numbers. This is a potentially solid team.

Carolina added 2 legit top 6 forwards and only lost Sutter. They were also far better once Maurice was fired.

The Islanders could very well be terrible again, I'll grant you that. They are a star-crossed franchise. But their team IS better on paper than what they had last year at this point with Visnovsky and likely Strome added. I'm also looking at the stats of their AHL team and a kid like Nino could breakout.

Toronto...who knows as of now. No way they score as easily as they did at times last year under Carlyle's more conservative system. But if they get Luongo they definitely improve the GAA.

Quote:
Florida, Washington and Buffalo are well positioned to sink in the standings.
I agree with you on Florida, that team completely overachieved and will sink. But how much will they sink? Dineen is a good coach, I doubt they suddenly bottom out.

Washington I wouldn't be so certain...that's still a team with some high end talent despite some of the holes they now have. That's also a team that has absolutely owned us over last 8-10 meetings.

As for Buffalo, I disagree. Roy wasn't good at all last year, can't see how he's that big of a loss. I think you are selling Hodgson short as he'll flourish with more ice time (granted, I have him in a keeper league and hope he does well) and they'll also be adding Foligno full time. Ennis is now a center and played well in the last 2 months of last season. They've also also absolutely owned us over the last 10 meetings or so.

Quote:
Markov is off course the X-Factor. If he can anchor a 2nd pairing and be a leader on the PP MTL goes from awful to average to above average on the blueline. That the Habs have been unusually heavily injured these past few years is essentially the story of Markov. They haven't been that unfortunate past him but he plays a very high leverage position and has missed a lot of time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by makbowles View Post
You can't ignore that the team was expecting to have Markov. That's why we got rid of Hamrlik and the Wiz. Now that we can (for the most part) expect a healthy Markov it drastically changes the makeup of this team.
I'm not expecting anything out of Markov with how much time he's missed until he actually proves he's a quality NHLer again. I'm in wait and see mode with him. We've been saying what you guys just wrote in those 2 quotes for far too long and the team has been burned time and time again.

Quote:
Losing Gionta was a huge blow as well. It greatly affected the makeup of our lines.
As DA pointed out, he was basically the only legit long-term injury to our top 6 forwards last season. Almost every team goes through at least one of those during a season. Injuries will happen. His return helps, but odds are there'll be at least one top 6 injury.

Quote:
Cammy was as ineffective as Bourque was plain and simple. There's no guarantee that Bourque will do better than last year but it's a very good chance he will.
While I did not like the 2011-12 version of Cammalleri, he was eons better than what Bourque gave us. Bourque was absolutely horrible! And I have zero confidence in his ability to be better this season coming off his injury.

Quote:
Armstrong if healthy is a great third liner. Who can score almost as many goals as AK has in the past few years.
''If healthy'' is the key here, hasn't happened much in recent seasons. And his Toronto tenure saw the offence dry up significantly last season. He's another one I don't know what to expect from him. And you just know Therrien will overuse him since he's one of his ''guys'' - same with Bouillon.

Quote:
You also have to count on our youth improving as well. Eller, PK, Diaz, Emelin, White. Even DD and Patches have a chance at improving as well.
You can say this about many teams and their young players, every team has 5-7 of them that could swing their fortunes.

DD is about as good as he's going to be IMO and I think a regression is more likely than improvement.

There's also the fact a veteran like Cole is probably unlikely to repeat his superb season at his age.

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12-12-2012, 09:39 PM
  #912
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I think that once Markov comes back a lot of fans are going to be shocked that we're not 2nd place in the conference. A mythology has been built up that his injuries are the root of all our problems.

I'm so sick of "if only we had Markov". It's tiresome, weak, and ignorant.

In any given year some things go wrong and some things go right. Yes Markov was injured, but Subban, Gorges, Price, Plekanec, Cole, Pacioretty, Eller, Desharnais, were not.

Our three most important players are Price, Plekanec, and Subban. They were fine. They've been fine for a while.

If Price or Subban were injured, we wouldn't be last in the conference, we'd be last in the league.

The core problems with this team are a lack of grit, a lack of mean shutdown ability on the defense, a lack of a point shot from the defensemen, and a lack of goal-scoring aptitude among the forwards. They were the problems last year and they'll be the problems this year if there is a this year.

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12-12-2012, 09:41 PM
  #913
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Galchenyuk should not be depended on, that's for sure, but that doesn't mean that he can't contribute. If he gives us top-6 numbers while being a threat on the PP and responsible defensively then I don't see how that isn't a major improvement on whoever else would be in his spot? This is a lottery pick we're talking about here. He definitely has the ability, why would you deprive him of that chance for something as ridiculous as burning a year off his ELC?

If anyone truly sees us as having a good chance at getting a lottery pick again with Markov and Price in our line-up, with the depth we have in our bottom-6 then I'd... kindly disagree

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12-12-2012, 09:50 PM
  #914
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Galchenyuk should not be depended on, that's for sure, but that doesn't mean that he can't contribute. If he gives us top-6 numbers while being a threat on the PP and responsible defensively then I don't see how that isn't a major improvement on whoever else would be in his spot? This is a lottery pick we're talking about here. He definitely has the ability, why would you deprive him of that chance for something as ridiculous as burning a year off his ELC?

If anyone truly sees us as having a good chance at getting a lottery pick again with Markov and Price in our line-up, with the depth we have in our bottom-6 then I'd... kindly disagree
The priority for Galchenyuk has to be his development. That is far more important than using his production to rise from 15th place to 13th place in the Eastern Conference.

Let him dominate the OHL for the remainder of the season, let him lead Team USA, let him have a deep OHL playoff run.

IMO, if it were possible for him to spend 2013-2014 in the AHL on the Bulldogs that would be even better. The more gradual his development, the better he'll become.

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12-12-2012, 09:58 PM
  #915
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I think that once Markov comes back a lot of fans are going to be shocked that we're not 2nd place in the conference. A mythology has been built up that his injuries are the root of all our problems.

I'm so sick of "if only we had Markov". It's tiresome, weak, and ignorant.

In any given year some things go wrong and some things go right. Yes Markov was injured, but Subban, Gorges, Price, Plekanec, Cole, Pacioretty, Eller, Desharnais, were not.

Our three most important players are Price, Plekanec, and Subban. They were fine. They've been fine for a while.

If Price or Subban were injured, we wouldn't be last in the conference, we'd be last in the league.
No, no and no. Markov is quite easily our best player. After him it is Price, and then Plekanec/Subban. Markov is our best offensive player and our best defensive player, all in one. He is so important to this team it's not even funny. Think Boston without Chara, Philly without Pronger, Detroit without Lidstrom. Pk will hopefully get there one day, but he isn't there yet.

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The core problems with this team are a lack of grit,
Fixed
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
a lack of mean shutdown ability on the defense,
Agreed on the mean part but not necessary until end of the year/playoffs, and relatively easy to find.
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
a lack of a point shot from the defensemen,
No we lacked a threat from the half boards on either side, teams could step up on Subban all day because of the lack of talent on the half boards. Cammy busted there, and Pacioretty is a down low player, not a guy who can hold the puck on the half boards.
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and a lack of goal-scoring aptitude among the forwards.
Exactly why we needed Galchenyuk!

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12-12-2012, 10:03 PM
  #916
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HZ, You are acting like we'll see the 2008 Markov right from the start, who was a fantastic defenceman back then.

That's a giant leap of faith considering how much time he has missed, his injuries and his age.

And burning off a year of Galchenyuk's ELC IS absolutely something important. A 21 year old Galchenyuk for 82 games at a rookie salary in 2015-16 > an 18 year old Galchenyuk for 40-50 games. By then we should hopefully be on the road to being a contender and having Galchenyuk at 3.2 M instead of 6 M could be huge.

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12-12-2012, 10:04 PM
  #917
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The priority for Galchenyuk has to be his development. That is far more important than using his production to rise from 15th place to 13th place in the Eastern Conference.

Let him dominate the OHL for the remainder of the season, let him lead Team USA, let him have a deep OHL playoff run.

IMO, if it were possible for him to spend 2013-2014 in the AHL on the Bulldogs that would be even better. The more gradual his development, the better he'll become.
Says who?
Why would it be better for him to play against inferior competition? That won't make him better. I'd understand if he showed that he wasn't ready or if he lacked the confidence, for whatever reason, to assert his style of play in whichever league he was trying out in, but somehow I doubt that will be a problem.

Hey, if he comes to camp(I'll be there, you can bet that) and doesn't look like he's ready, then I will agree with this notion wholeheartedly. I wouldn't rush him, but as of right now, he is too good for the OHL and the best thing for his development would be to play against the best competition he can handle. Where do you think Yakupov should be playing right now? Definitely not in the OHL, that's for sure. When you are so dominant in a junior league like these two, bad habits tend to form. Things won't be so easy for him in the pros, so I'd rather he get used to it sooner than later.

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12-12-2012, 10:15 PM
  #918
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HZ, You are acting like we'll see the 2008 Markov right from the start, who was a fantastic defenceman back then.

That's a giant leap of faith considering how much time he has missed, his injuries and his age.
I don't expect all-pro Markov right out of the gate, but I do expect he will be our best defenceman right out of the gate, that's for sure. He was already getting back into form last season, and from the little I've seen of him over in Russia, he looks to be in game shape. That's all I have to go off of, and there's no reason for me to expect otherwise. Markov is an elite player in this league, and the fact that he's been playing throughout this debacle only bodes well for him should there be a season here.

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And burning off a year of Galchenyuk's ELC IS absolutely something important. A 21 year old Galchenyuk for 82 games at a rookie salary > an 18 year old Galchenyuk for 40-50 games.
21 yr old gally + 18 yr old Gally >>> 21 yr old Gally

Salary cap can be dealt with, you don't affect a youngsters development because of something that trivial. He would only get paid more as an RFA than the 3.5 or wtv on the salary cap for his ELC, if he deserved it. Soo... I would gladly pay a 21 year old Galchenyuk whatever he's worth if he's ripping up the league.

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12-12-2012, 10:17 PM
  #919
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Says who?Why would it be better for him to play against inferior competition? That won't make him better. I'd understand if he showed that he wasn't ready or if he lacked the confidence, for whatever reason, to assert his style of play in whichever league he was trying out in, but somehow I doubt that will be a problem.
It's basically a result from psychology research. Human learning is maximized at a certain challenge level, if things are either too easy or too hard people learn less. People need to perform decently or else they're not learning. This hasn't been demonstrated for hockey, but I assume it applies.

I don't know why you're calling the AHL "inferior competition". The competition level is high, it's a large step-up from the CHL. Brendan Gallagher went from 1.43 ppg in the CHL last year to 0.57 ppg in the AHL this year (Aside: I didn't realize he was doing that well). Patrick Holland fell from 1.51 ppg to 0.33 ppg. David Desharnais went from 1.77 ppg in the CHL to 0.78 ppg in Hamilton two seasons later.

Given all that, if he's given 1st line time in Hamilton, and 1st unit PP, like he has in Sarnia, I expect him to struggle to score at a 0.8-0.9 ppg pace, maybe moving up to 1.0 ppg in the second half of the season, which to me sounds like optimal development zone.

Even if he is ready to play on the 3rd line for 12 minutes a game at the NHL, I think 1st line for 22 minutes a game in Hamilton might be better.

Remember what it did for Pacioretty? Remember the scandal when he said he would rather play a lot of minutes in Hamilton than 3rd/4th line minutes in Montreal? He was right, but it's a surprise Gauthier didn't trade him for this insubordination. A lot of fans were angry.

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Where do you think Yakupov should be playing right now?
In the KHL where he has 18 points in 22 games.

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No, no and no. Markov is quite easily our best player. After him it is Price, and then Plekanec/Subban. Markov is our best offensive player and our best defensive player, all in one. He is so important to this team it's not even funny. Think Boston without Chara, Philly without Pronger, Detroit without Lidstrom. Pk will hopefully get there one day, but he isn't there yet.
I don't agree that Markov is better than Price and Subban, and I certainly don't agree that he's "easily" better.

He's not Chara, Ponger, or Lidstrom. Andrei Markov was never that good defensively, and he doesn't contribute that mean streak that the first two contribute.

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12-12-2012, 10:17 PM
  #920
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I think that once Markov comes back a lot of fans are going to be shocked that we're not 2nd place in the conference. A mythology has been built up that his injuries are the root of all our problems.

I'm so sick of "if only we had Markov". It's tiresome, weak, and ignorant.

In any given year some things go wrong and some things go right. Yes Markov was injured, but Subban, Gorges, Price, Plekanec, Cole, Pacioretty, Eller, Desharnais, were not.

Our three most important players are Price, Plekanec, and Subban. They were fine. They've been fine for a while.

If Price or Subban were injured, we wouldn't be last in the conference, we'd be last in the league.

The core problems with this team are a lack of grit, a lack of mean shutdown ability on the defense, a lack of a point shot from the defensemen, and a lack of goal-scoring aptitude among the forwards. They were the problems last year and they'll be the problems this year if there is a this year.
Just to clarify my stance. I don't think we're a contender. All I'm saying is we're not a perennial bottom 5-10 team.

I'm not convinced Markov can stay healthy but so far his knee has held up so for the sake of argument let's say he can at least play the majority of a full season. Even if he's not quite the same player or a top 10 D in the league he can still very effective because of his style of play and can only make us better.

Even if Galchenyuk scores 15-20g and 20-25a in his rookie year, it will be a huge boost. His ability to just get the puck across the blue line will pay dividends and will change the makeup of our PP drastically.

Like I said, I'd love a top 5 pick and I'm not saying it won't happen but it's definitely not as likely as some seem to think. In a shortened season anything can happen.

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12-12-2012, 10:21 PM
  #921
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I consider Markov's injuries to be freak injuries. I expect him to come back and to be the player he was in 2006-2009.

However, even if he's not the one to be injured, we'll have one or two major injuries either way, that is the standard. If Markov comes back and we lose Subban, we'll hear the same old song: "the only reason we sucked is that Subban was injured, next year he won't be injured and we'll be better".

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Even if Galchenyuk scores 15-20g and 20-25a in his rookie year, it will be a huge boost. His ability to just get the puck across the blue line will pay dividends and will change the makeup of our PP drastically.
I don't think he'll be on the 1st line.

He can't possibly score that from the Plekanec shutdown line.

And there's not enough ice time to score 45 points from the Eller line, otherwise Eller would have already done so.


Last edited by DAChampion: 12-12-2012 at 10:29 PM.
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12-12-2012, 10:37 PM
  #922
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Yes I am that poster who compares Galchenyuk to a young Ron Francis. I'm an older lad, I remember Francis playing lights out when Lemieux went down and took over the series against the Rangers I think. Lemieux came back and took the spotlight but the unsung hero was Franchise Francis. I think Gally will have a career similar to Francis. For the younger generation, Brad Richards is as close comparison to a poor Ron Francis.

I've also had a chance to see some of the Habs draftees and these are my comparisons.

Alex Galchenyuk = Ron Francis
Sebastian Collberg = Haven't seen enough to make comparison
Dalton Thrower = James Wisniewski
Tim Bozon = Haven't seen enough to make comparison
Brady Vail = Chad Kilger/Blake Geofferion
Charles Hudon = Mike Cammalleri
Nathan Beaulieu = Steve Duchesne
Jarred Tinordi = Hal Gill/Mark Tinordi lite
Morgan Ellis = Zbynek Michalek
Brendan Gallagher = Brian Gionta
Louis Leblanc = Valeri KamenskyMichael Bournival = I really like this kid, if he was in Philly he'll be in the NHL by now, he's very strong on the puck and should develop into a 3rd line center. I can't think of any player right now, maybe David Bolland.
Gabriel Dumont = Darcy Tucker
Interesting comparison. I just don't see it. Kamemsky was slick, quick and gritty. Very offensivly smart and could undress a goalie better then most.

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12-12-2012, 10:47 PM
  #923
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It's basically a result from psychology research. Human learning is maximized at a certain challenge level, if things are either too easy or too hard people learn less. People need to perform decently or else they're not learning. This hasn't been demonstrated for hockey, but I assume it applies.
I agree with that entirely. The OHL is simply too easy for him. We don't know yet if the NHL is too hard, but I sincerely doubt it. In either case we should absolutely give him the chance to show us.

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I don't know why you're calling the AHL "inferior competition". The competition level is high, it's a large step-up from the CHL. Brendan Gallagher went from 1.43 ppg in the CHL last year to 0.57 ppg in the AHL this year (Aside: I didn't realize he was doing that well). Patrick Holland fell from 1.51 ppg to 0.33 ppg. David Desharnais went from 1.77 ppg in the CHL to 0.78 ppg in Hamilton two seasons later.
The AHL is absolutely "inferior" relative to the NHL and none of those players even come close to Galchenyuk in terms of talent and ability. It is uncommon for a top-3 pick to see time in the AHL unless that "b" word is lingering around.

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Given all that, if he's given 1st line time in Hamilton, and 1st unit PP, like he has in Sarnia, I expect him to struggle to score at a 0.8-0.9 ppg pace, maybe moving up to 1.0 ppg in the second half of the season, which to me sounds like optimal development zone.
I don't even want to think of him playing a minute in Hamilton to be honest. They won't make the playoffs imo so even if he stays in the O this year, there isn't a chance he's not with the big club next year.

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Even if he is ready to play on the 3rd line for 12 minutes a game at the NHL, I think 1st line for 22 minutes a game in Hamilton might be better.
That's a big disagree from me. If he can play with Eller in the NHL I'd rather that than him playing in the WJCs even.

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Remember what it did for Pacioretty? Remember the scandal when he said he would rather play a lot of minutes in Hamilton than 3rd/4th line minutes in Montreal? He was right, but it's a surprise Gauthier didn't trade him for this insubordination. A lot of fans were angry.
Prime example of a guy who didn't have the confidence to bring his game to the NHL level. The NHL was too hard for him at first, and again, he's nowhere near the player Galchenyuk is.

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In the KHL where he has 18 points in 22 games.
My point exactly. Why couldn't Galchenyuk do the same? If he didn't blow out his knee last year, would you have had a problem with him joining Galchenyuk in the KHL? Now that the concerns about his health are gone, I don't see any legit argument as to why he shouldn't be in the pros if he can hack it.

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I don't agree that Markov is better than Price and Subban, and I certainly don't agree that he's "easily" better.
Just my opinion. I'm not saying he is that much better than Price, but that it's easy for me to see that he's the key to our team. Subban is not even in the discussion yet, imo.

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He's not Chara, Ponger, or Lidstrom. Andrei Markov was never that good defensively, and he doesn't contribute that mean streak that the first two contribute.
He's not as good as Pronger or Lidstrom were for sure, but it was certainly debatable between him and Chara a couple years ago. Point is that he is in that category of defencemen and importance to his team.


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12-12-2012, 10:59 PM
  #924
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Where do you think Yakupov should be playing right now? Definitely not in the OHL, that's for sure. When you are so dominant in a junior league like these two, bad habits tend to form. Things won't be so easy for him in the pros, so I'd rather he get used to it sooner than later.
3 things:

Yakupov played 2 full years in the OHL, Gally hasn't done that yet.

Yakupov played way more hockey last year.

Yakupov is a year older in hockey years and turned 19 in October. It's a factor.

If Gally had played a full season last season, I'd be singing a different tune.

Also, the breakdown of his stats vs the contending teams doesn't scream ''OHL is too easy'' at this stage.

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I don't expect all-pro Markov right out of the gate, but I do expect he will be our best defenceman right out of the gate, that's for sure. He was already getting back into form last season, and from the little I've seen of him over in Russia, he looks to be in game shape. That's all I have to go off of, and there's no reason for me to expect otherwise. Markov is an elite player in this league, and the fact that he's been playing throughout this debacle only bodes well for him should there be a season here.
You are free to set whatever expectations you want. I've been burned the last 3 seasons on Markov being a key piece and I'm not going to be burned again.

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21 yr old gally + 18 yr old Gally >>> 21 yr old Gally

Salary cap can be dealt with, you don't affect a youngsters development because of something that trivial. He would only get paid more as an RFA than the 3.5 or wtv on the salary cap for his ELC, if he deserved it. Soo... I would gladly pay a 21 year old Galchenyuk whatever he's worth if he's ripping up the league.
This is a cap league and will continue to be one. You absolutely have to pay attention to this stuff as a GM and the effects of bringing up your future stud a year early.

Right now, our cap is set-up perfectly for re-signing Galchenyuk in 2016 as that summer the Plekanec-Bourque-Prust-Moen deals will be gone. If you bring him up this season, he now must be re-signed in 2015 and it could be a tight squeeze depending on what happens with the cap/HRR going forward.

It's also far easier to build a contending team when you have a very high end young player on an ELC (2009-10 Chicago being a prime example) giving you 6-7 M type production for half of that as it frees up cap room to go get a quality veteran.

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Even if Galchenyuk scores 15-20g and 20-25a in his rookie year, it will be a huge boost.
I assume you mean over an 82 game season? I'd be stunned if he produced that in a 40-50 game season at age 18.

Basically those are Andrei Kostitsyn type numbers over an 82 game season...I wouldn't call it a huge boost.

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I don't think he'll be on the 1st line.

He can't possibly score that from the Plekanec shutdown line.

And there's not enough ice time to score 45 points from the Eller line, otherwise Eller would have already done so.
Pretty much this. And how many points would he really rack up on the 2nd PP unit in 45-50 games? 10? 15?

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12-12-2012, 11:56 PM
  #925
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CAR, TB and NYI did more than us in the off-season and they finished ahead of us when we last saw NHL hockey.

Lindback should be an improvement over the atrocious, worst in the league type goaltending TB got. They also added Salo and Carle, who improve their weak D. They still have the 3 big guns up front. Connolly also seems poised for a breakout based on his AHL numbers. This is a potentially solid team.

Carolina added 2 legit top 6 forwards and only lost Sutter. They were also far better once Maurice was fired.

The Islanders could very well be terrible again, I'll grant you that. They are a star-crossed franchise. But their team IS better on paper than what they had last year at this point with Visnovsky and likely Strome added. I'm also looking at the stats of their AHL team and a kid like Nino could breakout.

Toronto...who knows as of now. No way they score as easily as they did at times last year under Carlyle's more conservative system. But if they get Luongo they definitely improve the GAA.



I agree with you on Florida, that team completely overachieved and will sink. But how much will they sink? Dineen is a good coach, I doubt they suddenly bottom out.

Washington I wouldn't be so certain...that's still a team with some high end talent despite some of the holes they now have. That's also a team that has absolutely owned us over last 8-10 meetings.

As for Buffalo, I disagree. Roy wasn't good at all last year, can't see how he's that big of a loss. I think you are selling Hodgson short as he'll flourish with more ice time (granted, I have him in a keeper league and hope he does well) and they'll also be adding Foligno full time. Ennis is now a center and played well in the last 2 months of last season. They've also also absolutely owned us over the last 10 meetings or so.
These teams I'm calling terrible by and large didn't beat out the Habs by playing hockey. Its the glorified coin flip after a tie game where they came out ahead. Who does well on the shootout year to year is essentially random.

Goal differential (excluding SOs) means more for who is going to be good next year than ranks in the standings. A lot less randomness there than who wins 2 or 3 more or less games over 82. Look there and you can see the difference between the truly horrific (TOR, TB, NYI, CAR) and merely bad (like MTL, WPG).


For Buffalo, its not just a matter of point scoring. Roy was the only guy they had that could potentially control the game from the center of the ice. His absence hurts even worse considering their blueline isn't all that great either. Leino, Ennis, Hogdson etc. can't replace that. Hodgson had some nice numbers in Vancouver but they were doing an extensive minute managing program to put him in purely offensive minutes. Once outside Vancouver`s management he crumbled. He is simply not a credible replacement for a good all round centerman like Roy. Beating up on AHL opposition doesn`t really change that. Buffalo is easily in the running for the worst center group in the league. They simply don`t have a guy that can play both offense and defense simultaneously.


Finally, looking at how well these teams did against MTL recently really means nothing in terms of team quality. Montreal crushed Detroit in their last meeting.

Washington`s forwards past Ovechkin and Backstrom really aren`t very good. Semin was the only thing holding their 2nd line together and Riberio doesn`t compensate enough.

Florida, well the only thing they had that I think is any good was Campbell-Garrison and Garrison is gone now. Coaching doesn`t compensate for a lack of talent up and down the lineup. Especially since their goaltending is highly questionable.

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