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Alex Galchenyuk Thread 6.0 - "Gally Got Backhand" Edition

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12-12-2012, 11:01 PM
  #926
DAChampion
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Originally Posted by HankyZetts View Post
The AHL is absolutely "inferior" relative to the NHL and none of those players even come close to Galchenyuk in terms of talent and ability. It is uncommon for a top-3 pick to see time in the AHL unless that "b" word is lingering around.
The reason for that is the dumb rule that CHL players can't play in the AHL until they're 20. Galchenyuk is not even allowed to play in the NHL next year let alone this year. I was speaking from the hypothetical standpoint that he would be allowed if a miracle happened, at which point I think a lot of top-5 picks would see more AHL time.

What do you think Huberdeau and Strome are doing in the CHL this year? Simple, they're wasting time due to a silly rule.

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Prime example of a guy who didn't have the confidence to bring his game to the NHL level. The NHL was too hard for him at first, and again, he's nowhere near the player Galchenyuk is.
I expect that 19 year-old Galchenyuk will not be a vastly superior to what 21 year-old Pacioretty was, and as such he'd benefit from comparable time in the AHL.

Also, Galchenyuk's confidence could grow from having a solid 40 games at the AHL level.

I'll also point it would help the other players in Hamilton. Tinordi, Beaulieu, Ellis, Gallagher, Holland, and next year perhaps Collberg and Kristo would all benefit from playing some games with Galchenyuk. Please think carefully before dismissing this point. I think there's benefit to having our future youth core spend time together.

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12-12-2012, 11:11 PM
  #927
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
These teams I'm calling terrible by and large didn't beat out the Habs by playing hockey. Its the glorified coin flip after a tie game where they came out ahead. Who does well on the shootout year to year is essentially random.

Goal differential (excluding SOs) means more for who is going to be good next year than ranks in the standings. A lot less randomness there than who wins 2 or 3 more or less games over 82. Look there and you can see the difference between the truly horrific (TOR, TB, NYI, CAR) and merely bad (like MTL, WPG).


For Buffalo, its not just a matter of point scoring. Roy was the only guy they had that could potentially control the game from the center of the ice. His absence hurts even worse considering their blueline isn't all that great either. Leino, Ennis, Hogdson etc. can't replace that. Hodgson had some nice numbers in Vancouver but they were doing an extensive minute managing program to put him in purely offensive minutes. Once outside Vancouver`s management he crumbled. He is simply not a credible replacement for a good all round centerman like Roy. Beating up on AHL opposition doesn`t really change that. Buffalo is easily in the running for the worst center group in the league. They simply don`t have a guy that can play both offense and defense simultaneously.


Finally, looking at how well these teams did against MTL recently really means nothing in terms of team quality. Montreal crushed Detroit in their last meeting.

Washington`s forwards past Ovechkin and Backstrom really aren`t very good. Semin was the only thing holding their 2nd line together and Riberio doesn`t compensate enough.

Florida, well the only thing they had that I think is any good was Campbell-Garrison and Garrison is gone now. Coaching doesn`t compensate for a lack of talent up and down the lineup. Especially since their goaltending is highly questionable.
I don't know why Florida is in this discussion. They had 94 points in 82 games compared to 78 for the Habs -- hard to see Garrison/Markov causing a 16 point shift. Meanwhile, your post opens with a criticism of luck-based standings, but Florida lead the entire NHL with 18 overtime consolation loser points last year. Montreal had 16.

Washington, Buffalo, and Ottawa may decline, but Toronto, Long Island, and Carolina in particular should all improve.

Meanwhile, even if every other team declined, it's not as though we were close. We were in 15th place, dead last in the conference, 14 points out of a playoff spot, that's a huge mountain of climb. We did this in spite of several things going our way last year -- imagine how bad it would have been if things had gone badly.

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Old
12-12-2012, 11:25 PM
  #928
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The reason for that is the dumb rule that CHL players can't play in the AHL until they're 20. Galchenyuk is not even allowed to play in the NHL next year let alone this year. I was speaking from the hypothetical standpoint that he would be allowed if a miracle happened, at which point I think a lot of top-5 picks would see more AHL time.

What do you think Huberdeau and Strome are doing in the CHL this year? Simple, they're wasting time due to a silly rule.
Agreed.
As for next year, I meant that he'd be able to join Hamilton for the playoffs if he were to stay in juniors again all year. I know he's not eligible to play in the Ahl.

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I expect that 19 year-old Galchenyuk will not be a vastly superior to what 21 year-old Pacioretty was, and as such he'd benefit from comparable time in the AHL.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if 19-20 year old Galchenyuk will be better than Pacioretty is right now. I'm actually kind of expecting it.

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Also, Galchenyuk's confidence could grow from having a solid 40 games at the AHL level.
If he shows to be too green at camp, then I'd subscribe to this hypothetical idea of yours. I just think he is really, really good. He'll fit right in and excel, imo.

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I'll also point it would help the other players in Hamilton. Tinordi, Beaulieu, Ellis, Gallagher, Holland, and next year perhaps Collberg and Kristo would all benefit from playing some games with Galchenyuk. Please think carefully before dismissing this point. I think there's benefit to having our future youth core spend time together.
Hypothetically? Sure. I agree, but I wouldn't put him down there if he showed the ability to be in the NHL.

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12-12-2012, 11:26 PM
  #929
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Question for you guys:

Jonathan Huberdeau or Alex Galchenyuk?

I'm torn...

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12-12-2012, 11:27 PM
  #930
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Originally Posted by Jabba11 View Post
Question for you guys:

Jonathan Huberdeau or Alex Galchenyuk?

I'm torn...
Huberdeau is closer to being NHL ready, but I still take Galchenyuk.

I know, homer vote.

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Old
12-12-2012, 11:45 PM
  #931
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
These teams I'm calling terrible by and large didn't beat out the Habs by playing hockey. Its the glorified coin flip after a tie game where they came out ahead. Who does well on the shootout year to year is essentially random.

Goal differential (excluding SOs) means more for who is going to be good next year than ranks in the standings. A lot less randomness there than who wins 2 or 3 more or less games over 82. Look there and you can see the difference between the truly horrific (TOR, TB, NYI, CAR) and merely bad (like MTL, WPG).
I do agree it's nearly impossible to be that atrocious for a 2nd straight year in the shootout. It's going to even out - although I struggle to think of anyone I would call ''good'' in the SO on the club. Gionta is probably the closest.

However, 6 of our 12 shootout loses came in games where we blew a lead by my count, often pretty late in the 3rd. Blowing leads was a major problem. Why did we blow so many leads? Because our D was small and couldn't clear the crease and our offence could not get that insurance goal to put a game away, mostly because we had 1 consistent offensive line.

Neither problem has been fixed and it's arguably worse in both accounts (Gill > Bouillon for sure and there's less talent up front than last season too).

There's also the fact that I think it'll take at least 10 games for this team to feel somewhat comfortable with what is supposed to be a brand new system, especially since training camp will likely be a week long at most. So a slow start is only normal. In a 40-50 game season, if you start 2-7-1, your season is probably over barring some incredible winning streak (which this team hasn't had in years).

You also have to wonder about Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Gorges, Cole and Gionta playing almost no hockey since last spring. Will these guys need 10+ games to get their A game back? 15? 20? And will some of the players who have been playing in Europe since September (Plekanec mainly) run out of gas by March playing 4+ games a week in a condensed schedule?

If this was a normal 82 game season, I'd be buying what you are selling because you can overcome a slow start. I just envision this team getting buried early due to the changes and other factors I just mentioned, Bergevin will then be a seller at the deadline (which will probably be after around 30-35 games) and the rest of the season will be just playing out the string.



Quote:
For Buffalo, its not just a matter of point scoring. Roy was the only guy they had that could potentially control the game from the center of the ice. His absence hurts even worse considering their blueline isn't all that great either. Leino, Ennis, Hogdson etc. can't replace that. Hodgson had some nice numbers in Vancouver but they were doing an extensive minute managing program to put him in purely offensive minutes. Once outside Vancouver`s management he crumbled. He is simply not a credible replacement for a good all round centerman like Roy. Beating up on AHL opposition doesn`t really change that. Buffalo is easily in the running for the worst center group in the league. They simply don`t have a guy that can play both offense and defense simultaneously.
We'll see. In 2010-11 they went on a tear in the 2nd half without Roy.

And their D is better than ours, I wouldn't be taking shots at their group. I'd love to have Myers or Regehr or McNabb.

They can roll out Vanek-Pominville-Stafford-Foligno-Foligno-Gerbe on the wings. That's a good group.

Miller is a high quality goalie.

Quote:
Finally, looking at how well these teams did against MTL recently really means nothing in terms of team quality. Montreal crushed Detroit in their last meeting.
You can't really look at a game against a team out of the conference that you face once a year. Especially since Lidstrom was out.

But you can certainly look at results against a conference rival you face 4-6 times.

The bottom line is we were completely outclassed by WSH in several of those meetings. We couldn't even score in most of them. Buffalo has also had our number, usually because we blow leads at home to them.

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Washington`s forwards past Ovechkin and Backstrom really aren`t very good. Semin was the only thing holding their 2nd line together and Riberio doesn`t compensate enough.
So is Semin very good or not? His arrival doesn't really impact CAR in your analysis, yet losing him is a possible fatal blow to WSH? Ribeiro should easily replace the 0.7 PPG they got out of him, IMO.

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12-12-2012, 11:58 PM
  #932
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
3 things:
Yakupov played 2 full years in the OHL, Gally hasn't done that yet.
It looks like he may not need to.
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Yakupov played way more hockey last year.
What does that matter? At the beginning of the year sure, this would be an acceptable argument in trying to predict how he'd play, but he's playing right now, and dominating games.
Yakupov is a year older in hockey years and turned 19 in October. It's a factor.
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If Gally had played a full season last season, I'd be singing a different tune.
I'm actually really surprised that you aren't inching closer to me on this. It's the best of both worlds really, we get to see him play half a season and most probably WJCs to show that he is 100% healthy and in game shape, like you wanted, and he dominates. Then, we get to see him play the second half in the pros(assuming he does well in camp), like I wanted, while he is already in stride. Really nothing to worry about unless they keep him in Montreal when he's not ready. You know that won't happen.
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Also, the breakdown of his stats vs the contending teams doesn't scream ''OHL is too easy'' at this stage.
With all due respect, watching the games does. He is absolutely too good for the OHL at this point.

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You are free to set whatever expectations you want. I've been burned the last 3 seasons on Markov being a key piece and I'm not going to be burned again.
I feel ya. Fact is, he's playing right now in Russia, looking good and getting into fights . I'm not going to be scared of another freak injury, it is what it is.

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This is a cap league and will continue to be one. You absolutely have to pay attention to this stuff as a GM and the effects of bringing up your future stud a year early.
And that would be purely from a performance and development standpoint.

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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Right now, our cap is set-up perfectly for re-signing Galchenyuk in 2016 as that summer the Plekanec-Bourque-Prust-Moen deals will be gone. If you bring him up this season, he now must be re-signed in 2015 and it could be a tight squeeze depending on what happens with the cap/HRR going forward.
I'm hard-pressed to remember a time that such a high profile prospect proved he was ready to play in the NHL and was held back in junior due to planning ahead 4 years on the salary cap. This isn't baseball.

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It's also far easier to build a contending team when you have a very high end young player on an ELC (2009-10 Chicago being a prime example) giving you 6-7 M type production for half of that as it frees up cap room to go get a quality veteran.
If Bergy can't work the cap to get Gally signed and still have a contending team around him, then he needs to be fired right now. He's already got Price, soon to be Subban, Pacioretty, Plekanec. Getting Gally for 6M on his second contract, as you infer, means he will be a superstar in the league, so I really don't see any way that his salary would be a burden to us.

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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Pretty much this. And how many points would he really rack up on the 2nd PP unit in 45-50 games? 10? 15?
If he is in Mtl, he will get his on the PP. Most talented forward we have, no doubt.

Holy, super post!
Zzzzz...

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Old
12-13-2012, 01:32 AM
  #933
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Originally Posted by Jabba11 View Post
Question for you guys:

Jonathan Huberdeau or Alex Galchenyuk?

I'm torn...
I asked this very same question to my younger cousin a few days ago and I was 100% certain he would say Galchenyuk and he said "I don't know". This is someone who is much younger than me but knows hockey much better than me and he doesn't give a rat's ass about nationality(like I tend to go for). Then I thought "wow maybe Huberdeau is much better than I thought!" (because I have a high opinion of Alex and would never trade him for the World)

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12-13-2012, 02:19 AM
  #934
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My first choice is for Galchenyuk to go to the AHL, but that option is not available.

However, now that I've thought about it, even though he is not suited for the Plekanec line and there is too little ice time on the Eller line, the 1st line might be a good idea. Galchenyuk at one end, Pacioretty at the other and DD in the middle. The sheltered minutes would put him in a position to succeed, and pushing Cole down the 2nd line would balance the lineup.

It's a good possibility. If there's a season I hope the 9-game tryout doesn't interfere with the WJC.

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12-13-2012, 03:00 AM
  #935
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
My first choice is for Galchenyuk to go to the AHL, but that option is not available.

However, now that I've thought about it, even though he is not suited for the Plekanec line and there is too little ice time on the Eller line, the 1st line might be a good idea. Galchenyuk at one end, Pacioretty at the other and DD in the middle. The sheltered minutes would put him in a position to succeed, and pushing Cole down the 2nd line would balance the lineup.

It's a good possibility. If there's a season I hope the 9-game tryout doesn't interfere with the WJC.
I honestly think he'd be a good fit for any of the top 3 lines. Let's say he doesn't play this year and he starts the one after. He could end up on a line with Eller and LL which I think would be a really fun one to see. Even playing with Pleks and Gio could be a pretty dynamic 2nd line. Your suggestion would probably be best case scenario and could turn into a hell of a 1st ine.

If Galchenyuk plays this year, I think he'd have a similar year to the one Eller just had with maybe a few more assists and maybe a couple less goals (and I mean on a PPG basis of course). If he started next year I think he'd be a 20/20 guy at the very least.

I know there's a pretty good margin of error in these predictions and they err a bit on the positive side but I think he's good enough to pull those type of #s off. His puck possession skills will make us that much better even if the points aren't there right away.

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Old
12-13-2012, 06:54 AM
  #936
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Originally Posted by Jabba11 View Post
Question for you guys:

Jonathan Huberdeau or Alex Galchenyuk?

I'm torn...
Galcheyuk has more size(Huberdeau is built like a 13 year old girl) and a bit more upside, I would take him. Plus Galcheyuk is outproducing him with a similar supporting cast and is a year younger.

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12-13-2012, 07:05 AM
  #937
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Galcheyuk has more size(Huberdeau is built like a 13 year old girl) and a bit more upside, I would take him. Plus Galcheyuk is outproducing him with a similar supporting cast and is a year younger.
Huberdeau has actually bulked up quite a bit. I remember somebody quoting Tallon at last years WJC saying that he expected him to play in the NHL at around 210 lbs.

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12-13-2012, 07:11 AM
  #938
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Huberdeau has actually bulked up quite a bit. I remember somebody quoting Tallon at last years WJC saying that he expected him to play in the NHL at around 210 lbs.
I saw him play a few times this year and I doubt he is 180lbs. Maybe 210lbs if he has 25lbs of anke and wrist weights, at 210 he'd have a beer belly.

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12-13-2012, 07:26 AM
  #939
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I saw him play a few times this year and I doubt he is 180lbs. Maybe 210lbs if he has 25lbs of anke and wrist weights, at 210 he'd have a beer belly.
I haven't seen him play live this season but when I have seen him on T.V. I thought he looked alot bigger than 180lbs.

Time will tell I suppose.......

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12-13-2012, 09:55 AM
  #940
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Does anyone knows gallys stick curve?

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12-13-2012, 10:03 AM
  #941
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Originally Posted by HankyZetts View Post
What does that matter? At the beginning of the year sure, this would be an acceptable argument in trying to predict how he'd play, but he's playing right now, and dominating games.
Development. Gally missed that 2nd OHL year and needs to play a full one this year to catch up.

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I'm actually really surprised that you aren't inching closer to me on this. It's the best of both worlds really, we get to see him play half a season and most probably WJCs to show that he is 100% healthy and in game shape, like you wanted, and he dominates.
I'm not inching closer to you because I am adopting a long-term vision. We're also not quite in the clear yet with regards to him playing in the WJC if their intention is to call him up when camp begins.

My biggest problem is I hate when a prospect who is doing well is suddenly called up to the NHL during the season and his development is disrupted. It nearly ****ed up Pacioretty in AHL rookie year of 2008-09, as an example. It took him 2 years to recover. And I fear for Leblanc and the idiotic way they yo-yo'd him last season. Gally's a better prospect than those two were/are, but there's a long list of top 10 picks who played at 18 in the league and have not become what was expected (Brule, L. Schenn, Bogosian, Filatov, Bailey, Gagner, Zherdev, Klesla, etc).

I just don't see the rush here. Let Galchenyuk continue on the development path he is on right now, play in the WJC, end the year with 100+ points in the OHL, hopefully win a playoff round if he stays in Sarnia and then end his season in Hamilton if they are still playing. You know, a whole bunch of things he hasn't experienced yet. Then next fall he comes into camp a more confident and accomplished player and should be ready.

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Then, we get to see him play the second half in the pros(assuming he does well in camp), like I wanted, while he is already in stride. Really nothing to worry about unless they keep him in Montreal when he's not ready. You know that won't happen.
But here's the thing how will they determine if he's ready or not though? We're looking at a 5-7 day camp. Everyone says there won't even be an exhibition game. There might be 2 scrimmages. They'd be making a decision based on 3 or 4 days of practice!

So basically he would need to play games to truly determine if he's ready or not. Which means he starts the season in Montreal.

What if they give him the 9 game trial and puts up 4 points but isn't that effective overall? The media/fans will make this a major soap opera in the days leading up to the decision and there'll be tons of pressure on the organization to keep him up, especially if the alternative is the despised Rene Bourque in the top 6. It will be the Latendresse situation all over again basically.

I'd rather just avoid all of that.

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With all due respect, watching the games does. He is absolutely too good for the OHL at this point.
Fair enough, I can't watch them like you can, but I do know the opinion that he's beaten up on a lot of the bad/average teams and hasn't been as good against the high end OHL teams is shared by several who have watched his games on this forum.

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And that would be purely from a performance and development standpoint.
Which is a good chunk of what we are arguing about.

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I'm hard-pressed to remember a time that such a high profile prospect proved he was ready to play in the NHL and was held back in junior due to planning ahead 4 years on the salary cap. This isn't baseball.
Obviously it wouldn't be just for the cap down the road. Above all this is about developing him the right way. However, there's also starting his UFA clock a year early if you keep him up. That matters.

I would argue that Florida left Gudbranson and Huberdeau in junior months after they were drafted in part because of UFA/Cap/contract reasons, for one.

And how many high profile prospects played all but 8 games the year before? This is a unique situation.

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If Bergy can't work the cap to get Gally signed and still have a contending team around him, then he needs to be fired right now. He's already got Price, soon to be Subban, Pacioretty, Plekanec. Getting Gally for 6M on his second contract, as you infer, means he will be a superstar in the league, so I really don't see any way that his salary would be a burden to us.
It wouldn't be a ''burden''. But I'd rather have him at 3.2 M for 2015-16, when by then I would hope we are a good team and we are looking for impact pieces to complete the squad (which means we need cap room) and the following summer the increase to Galchenyuk will be easily paid by the big money deals expiring, then have him at 6 M+ for that season because we just had to have him play 40-50 games in a shortened 2012-13 season.

Every dollar adds up.

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If he is in Mtl, he will get his on the PP. Most talented forward we have, no doubt.
Giroux was #1 in the league last year with 38 PP points.

In basically half as many games and considering he's a rookie, how many do you think Galchenyuk could put up on the PP? I think 10 to 15. If he's on the PP, that means someone like Eller isn't. How many would Eller put up with that type of PP time? Probably at least 5-7 if he's playing with Plekanec and Gionta on the 2nd unit. The difference in production isn't big.

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12-13-2012, 10:37 AM
  #942
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It's pretty simple guys. Give him his 8 games or whatever in the NHL and then go from there. If he's ready let him stick, if he's not send him down.

I know there's a lockout, but is this really worthy of a lengthy discussion?

The question is whether you think he will be ready or not, not if he is. Personally I think he'll play well enough to stick around.

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12-13-2012, 11:03 AM
  #943
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I think too many people have an obsession with height and weight.

A conditioned 6'1 athlete who is carrying 185-190 pounds at around 9% body fat is an absolute monster.




Everyone has a different body type and morphology, but Hudon will likely play at around 175 and Gally 200.

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12-13-2012, 11:23 AM
  #944
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I do agree it's nearly impossible to be that atrocious for a 2nd straight year in the shootout. It's going to even out - although I struggle to think of anyone I would call ''good'' in the SO on the club. Gionta is probably the closest.

However, 6 of our 12 shootout loses came in games where we blew a lead by my count, often pretty late in the 3rd. Blowing leads was a major problem. Why did we blow so many leads? Because our D was small and couldn't clear the crease and our offence could not get that insurance goal to put a game away, mostly because we had 1 consistent offensive line.

Neither problem has been fixed and it's arguably worse in both accounts (Gill > Bouillon for sure and there's less talent up front than last season too).
The blown leads are about a general problem with losing close games last season. That`s not so much a problem of a soft defense (bad defenses give up goals all the time not just in key situations) as the Habs had trouble translating their level of play into wins. Like shootouts that usually isn`t something that a team is good or bad at year to year.



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There's also the fact that I think it'll take at least 10 games for this team to feel somewhat comfortable with what is supposed to be a brand new system, especially since training camp will likely be a week long at most. So a slow start is only normal. In a 40-50 game season, if you start 2-7-1, your season is probably over barring some incredible winning streak (which this team hasn't had in years).

You also have to wonder about Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Gorges, Cole and Gionta playing almost no hockey since last spring. Will these guys need 10+ games to get their A game back? 15? 20? And will some of the players who have been playing in Europe since September (Plekanec mainly) run out of gas by March playing 4+ games a week in a condensed schedule?

If this was a normal 82 game season, I'd be buying what you are selling because you can overcome a slow start. I just envision this team getting buried early due to the changes and other factors I just mentioned, Bergevin will then be a seller at the deadline (which will probably be after around 30-35 games) and the rest of the season will be just playing out the string.
Habs aren`t any different than your typical NHL team in this regard.


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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
We'll see. In 2010-11 they went on a tear in the 2nd half without Roy.

And their D is better than ours, I wouldn't be taking shots at their group. I'd love to have Myers or Regehr or McNabb.

They can roll out Vanek-Pominville-Stafford-Foligno-Foligno-Gerbe on the wings. That's a good group.

Miller is a high quality goalie.
Buffalo has some depth on defense, better than Montreal`s but the top of their group isn`t nearly so good. There is no Gorges-Subban pairing in that bunch. Reghr is a fraction of his former self and isn`t making that much impact anymore, McNabb may be something some day but for the here and now is hardly better than the likes of Emelin and Diaz. And unfortunately for them, Myers hasn`t been all that great after Lydman and Tallinder left. Overall it isn`t an embarassing group by any means but it isn`t a strong one. A collection of secondary players that aren`t particularly great as a unit is how I`d put it.

Without Markov Montreal`s group is weaker, with him its better and we`re not going to know which is going to be the case until the season starts.



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You can't really look at a game against a team out of the conference that you face once a year. Especially since Lidstrom was out.

But you can certainly look at results against a conference rival you face 4-6 times.

The bottom line is we were completely outclassed by WSH in several of those meetings. We couldn't even score in most of them. Buffalo has also had our number, usually because we blow leads at home to them.
6-8 games is a piddling sample size for NHL hockey. How a team does over that time frame means almost nothing.

Buffalo owns Montreal last season, but in turn gets owned by Tampa Bay.
Montreal in turn owns Winnipeg and Ottawa.

None of that means anything.


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So is Semin very good or not? His arrival doesn't really impact CAR in your analysis, yet losing him is a possible fatal blow to WSH? Ribeiro should easily replace the 0.7 PPG they got out of him, IMO.
Its not about the points, hockey as about far more than that. Semin is a rare winger that can carry a forward line. Without him the Caps` second unit is positioned to be pretty weak. 3 years ago Riberio would have been perfect to lead a 2nd line but he`s declined. Dallas had to manage his minutes pretty hard to make him useful last season.


Carolina helped themselves a lot getting Semin as well as Staal. The thing is that they were 30 goals back from average last year and getting 2 impact players probably doesn`t get them all the way out of the hole. Their top six is brilliant, but they have the same problem that has bedeviled other teams with good top sixes in Anahiem and the Island, their bottom six is a trainwreck. Its the same problem Minnesota has, they aren`t good enough for two great aquisitions to get them all the way back.

So Carolina is a bad team that has pulled themselves up to subpar, while Washington is an average team that is falling. Both are looking like being somewhat below average next time they play.

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12-13-2012, 11:28 AM
  #945
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I haven't seen him play live this season but when I have seen him on T.V. I thought he looked alot bigger than 180lbs.

Time will tell I suppose.......
I saw him in an interview in the last week and looks small in the shoulders and chest.

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12-13-2012, 12:58 PM
  #946
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Development. Gally missed that 2nd OHL year and needs to play a full one this year to catch up.
I don't get it? How much better can he do? He may already be the best player in the OHL.
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My biggest problem is I hate when a prospect who is doing well is suddenly called up to the NHL during the season and his development is disrupted. It nearly ****ed up Pacioretty in AHL rookie year of 2008-09, as an example. It took him 2 years to recover. And I fear for Leblanc and the idiotic way they yo-yo'd him last season. Gally's a better prospect than those two were/are, but there's a long list of top 10 picks who played at 18 in the league and have not become what was expected (Brule, L. Schenn, Bogosian, Filatov, Bailey, Gagner, Zherdev, Klesla, etc).
Bogosian is still a beast, but not one of these guys were the prospect that Galchenyuk is. It's not Bergevin's fault that players like Bailey were rushed or that players like Filatov busted, he's still got to do his due diligence. The list of guys that played at 18 years old and did well is a much nicer list btw.
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I just don't see the rush here. Let Galchenyuk continue on the development path he is on right now, play in the WJC, end the year with 100+ points in the OHL, hopefully win a playoff round if he stays in Sarnia and then end his season in Hamilton if they are still playing. You know, a whole bunch of things he hasn't experienced yet. Then next fall he comes into camp a more confident and accomplished player and should be ready.
Why wait until next fall if he is confident and ready now?
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But here's the thing how will they determine if he's ready or not though? We're looking at a 5-7 day camp. Everyone says there won't even be an exhibition game. There might be 2 scrimmages. They'd be making a decision based on 3 or 4 days of practice!
That's why they're paid the big bucks. They won't have a problem evaluating him practicing and scrimmaging against his peers.

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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
What if they give him the 9 game trial and puts up 4 points but isn't that effective overall? The media/fans will make this a major soap opera in the days leading up to the decision and there'll be tons of pressure on the organization to keep him up, especially if the alternative is the despised Rene Bourque in the top 6. It will be the Latendresse situation all over again basically.

I'd rather just avoid all of that.
It goes much deeper than simply "points", I'd hope. They'll be breaking down every shift at every practice on this kid. They won't mess around with our potential franchise player here. If they let media pressure affect their final decision(which they won't), then they need to be fired yesterday, seriously.

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Fair enough, I can't watch them like you can, but I do know the opinion that he's beaten up on a lot of the bad/average teams and hasn't been as good against the high end OHL teams is shared by several who have watched his games on this forum.
Well yeah, I'd disagree with that sentiment. Sarnia as a whole just plain sucks against good, structured teams because they play shinny hockey style with stretch and drop passes a la masse. They get picked apart by good forechecking teams. This is another reason why I'd want Gally out of there if he can handle it, I want him to learn a real NHL system.
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Obviously it wouldn't be just for the cap down the road. Above all this is about developing him the right way. However, there's also starting his UFA clock a year early if you keep him up. That matters.
I just don't think it matters as much as you make it seem.

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I would argue that Florida left Gudbranson and Huberdeau in junior months after they were drafted in part because of UFA/Cap/contract reasons, for one.
Maybe. Maybe they were on the fence and that had something to do with it. But, I'd bet it had a heck of a lot more to do with how NHL ready they were. Look no further than their very own Dmitri Kulikov, who played right away, for an example of a guy who had nothing left to learn in junior.

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And how many high profile prospects played all but 8 games the year before? This is a unique situation.
How many times has there been a lockout that allows a lottery pick the time to prove he is recovered from missing a year? He's top-3 in scoring in the OHL at 18, and could be higher, I think we can forget about the fact he didn't play last year.
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
In basically half as many games and considering he's a rookie, how many do you think Galchenyuk could put up on the PP? I think 10 to 15. If he's on the PP, that means someone like Eller isn't. How many would Eller put up with that type of PP time? Probably at least 5-7 if he's playing with Plekanec and Gionta on the 2nd unit. The difference in production isn't big.
I don't want to argue predictions, but all I know is that he is probably our most talented forward already. Thrown him on a PP with Markov and Subban, and sky is the limit.

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12-13-2012, 12:59 PM
  #947
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So... hum.. when will Galch play next? I wanna see some more dirty video...

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12-13-2012, 01:01 PM
  #948
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Habs aren`t any different than your typical NHL team in this regard.
That's your take and I respect it.

I personally think that having a 7 day camp won't be enough for players who, aside from Pacioretty, haven't played real hockey since early April. They'll need several games to get back into their top form. Especially Gionta who hasn't played in a year.

There's a reason why Pierre Groulx was almost begging Price to sign in Europe early in the fall.

Quote:
Buffalo has some depth on defense, better than Montreal`s but the top of their group isn`t nearly so good. There is no Gorges-Subban pairing in that bunch. Reghr is a fraction of his former self and isn`t making that much impact anymore, McNabb may be something some day but for the here and now is hardly better than the likes of Emelin and Diaz. And unfortunately for them, Myers hasn`t been all that great after Lydman and Tallinder left. Overall it isn`t an embarassing group by any means but it isn`t a strong one. A collection of secondary players that aren`t particularly great as a unit is how I`d put it.
To be clear, I'd take Regehr in the Bouillon role because at least he'd bring some size to the table. Obviously he's not a guy you want playing top pairing minutes anymore.

Gorges-Subban is a very nice pair, but the Habs have a major ? on the 2nd pair, which can't be ignored. Can Markov last more than 10 games playing 20 minutes a night? Can Markov-Emelin play well together? (they did not play well as a unit when Markov came back). If they can't, then everything is up in the air, with the possibility of having to break up Gorges-Subban to get both on the right side.

Quote:
6-8 games is a piddling sample size for NHL hockey. How a team does over that time frame means almost nothing.

Buffalo owns Montreal last season, but in turn gets owned by Tampa Bay.
Montreal in turn owns Winnipeg and Ottawa.
That's true on OTT and WPG, I probably got a bit too carried away bringing up the BUF and WSH examples and how we did against them.

Quote:
Carolina helped themselves a lot getting Semin as well as Staal. The thing is that they were 30 goals back from average last year and getting 2 impact players probably doesn`t get them all the way out of the hole. Their top six is brilliant, but they have the same problem that has bedeviled other teams with good top sixes in Anahiem and the Island, their bottom six is a trainwreck. Its the same problem Minnesota has, they aren`t good enough for two great aquisitions to get them all the way back.

So Carolina is a bad team that has pulled themselves up to subpar, while Washington is an average team that is falling. Both are looking like being somewhat below average next time they play.
Here's the thing, who are the real Hurricanes?

They were an atrocious -20 under Maurice in 25 games.

They were a more respectable -10 under Muller in the final 57 games.

Add Staal and Semin to the team that was -10 in 70% of the season and that team looks far better.

As for the Capitals, don't forget that Backstrom missed half the season in 2011-12 and most likely as a result of that, Ovechkin had a horrible year by his standards. The team also often looked lost in Hunter's restrictive system. Oates is going to open it up more, which should help.

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Old
12-13-2012, 01:43 PM
  #949
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I don't get it? How much better can he do? He may already be the best player in the OHL.
Let him be the best player in the OHL for more than 25 games is what I am saying.

Quote:
The list of guys that played at 18 years old and did well is a much nicer list btw.
How many were coming off playing 8 games in the previous season? I've already made it clear that if he had played a full season last year we would not be having this debate because I'd share your view.

Quote:
Why wait until next fall if he is confident and ready now?
Why not wait 8 months and be certain he's more ready next September? We have far more to lose than to gain here. What's the reward...he puts up a 0.6 PPG in 40-50 games?

Quote:
It goes much deeper than simply "points", I'd hope. They'll be breaking down every shift at every practice on this kid. They won't mess around with our potential franchise player here. If they let media pressure affect their final decision(which they won't), then they need to be fired yesterday, seriously.
By already stating to the world they pretty don't value the WJC experience THAT much, they are showing that they are willing to take a risk with his development. So yes, there is reason to be concerned that they are not thinking this with the team's long-term interests and Gally's development in mind.

They've also created media pressure by coming out and saying he'd be at camp. Talk radio here has had plenty of Galchenyuk talk since Bergevin said he'd skip the WJC to come to a camp if there is one. The ''average'' fan now expects Galchenyuk to be on the roster.

Quote:
Well yeah, I'd disagree with that sentiment. Sarnia as a whole just plain sucks against good, structured teams because they play shinny hockey style with stretch and drop passes a la masse. They get picked apart by good forechecking teams. This is another reason why I'd want Gally out of there if he can handle it, I want him to learn a real NHL system.
I know that Sarnia plays pond hockey basically. Since it looks like he won't be traded, Galchenyuk carrying that team and their flaws to the 2nd round would be a very solid accomplishment for his development.

And if he can't do that, there should still be around 10 games left in the Hamilton season by my count.

Quote:
I just don't think it matters as much as you make it seem.
Fine then. I won't try to convince you otherwise on this point. If you can't see how having control of Galchenyuk's rights from age 19 to 26 > having control of his rights from age 18 to 25, I don't know what to add.

Quote:
Look no further than their very own Dmitri Kulikov, who played right away, for an example of a guy who had nothing left to learn in junior.
Good example of a kid who, through 3 years of his career, hasn't reached the stardom level people expected. Now why is that? Could it be because he needed more seasoning in the Q? Could it be because he was on a rotten team to start his NHL career?

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How many times has there been a lockout that allows a lottery pick the time to prove he is recovered from missing a year? He's top-3 in scoring in the OHL at 18, and could be higher, I think we can forget about the fact he didn't play last year.
It's a unique situation.

Has he recovered? It sure looks like it.

Is it the best thing for his development to throw him into a 40-50 game condensed NHL schedule on a questionable team when he can finish off a brilliant full season in the OHL? I say no.

Quote:
I don't want to argue predictions, but all I know is that he is probably our most talented forward already. Thrown him on a PP with Markov and Subban, and sky is the limit.
We all know that's unlikely to happen, Therrien has made it clear as day he's keeping the DD line together and they'll obviously be the #1 PP unit.

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Old
12-13-2012, 03:20 PM
  #950
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Huberdeau is closer to being NHL ready, but I still take Galchenyuk.

I know, homer vote.
Gally.

Even more so because of annoying hab fans who want to trade the world for Huberdeau. He's tremendously talented, but over blown by Hab fans who want him and not even Florida fans who should be pimping the guy.

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