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Contraction a necessary evil for survival of NHL says economist

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Old
12-12-2012, 02:19 PM
  #376
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There was no need to issue that correction. I'm fully aware of this. More to the point though, the NHL still has to approve those visions, so nothing I said is even incorrect. There's always 5-6 times as many as expansion proposals as actually get approved, so for another franchise to show up in Atlanta, the NHL has to pass over other offers and "try again' in Atlanta.

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12-12-2012, 02:21 PM
  #377
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Atlanta was mainly because ASG may be one of the worst organizations ever to attempt to run anything.

But the comparison to Ottawa isn't fair, the last time Ottawa was tried before 1992, was during the original 6 era, it's not a remotely fair comparison and you know it, so if we're going to have this discussion, let's not make up random asides that have no bearing on anything

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12-12-2012, 02:28 PM
  #378
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Originally Posted by Coramoor View Post
Atlanta was mainly because ASG may be one of the worst organizations ever to attempt to run anything.

But the comparison to Ottawa isn't fair, the last time Ottawa was tried before 1992, was during the original 6 era, it's not a remotely fair comparison and you know it, so if we're going to have this discussion, let's not make up random asides that have no bearing on anything
[mod]

I'm not sure if you're even trying to make a point here, or if you're just being contradictory for its own sake. If I wanted to point out the failure of a Canadian NHL market I would have used Quebec or Winnipeg, not Ottawa. The modern failure is of course more relevant, you're very right about that.

More to the point, it seems to me that a lot of people are having a problem with the fact that market forces have moved the sport away from Canada in the last 40 years. Rather than celebrate the growth of the league they seem to resent that it is somehow no longer entirely theirs -- as if hockey ever really was. There's a few legit passionate QC fans that really deserve a franchise -- more than a few in all likelihood -- but all these Canadians crabbing and beating down southern US markets solely for their own gain would make me very glad if they never see another new team in Canada.

[mod]


Last edited by Hank Chinaski: 12-13-2012 at 09:02 AM. Reason: flaming/OT
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12-12-2012, 02:30 PM
  #379
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Just a point, but it's not up to the NHL to "try" a market. It's up to someone in that market to pony up the money and then ask the NHL if they are willing to try that market.

According to Bettman, there were 23 tire kickers in Atlanta that all looked at owning a team there, but they all walked for various reasons. Atlanta may yet get another team, but it won't happen until someone else comes along and convinces the NHL that their vision can work.
The first time the NHL put a team in Atlanta, it was just to even out the league after putting another team in NY to keep out a rival league putting a team in NY. The second time, the Thrashers eventually ended up with an owner that didn't want the Thrashers to play in the building that they owned. Then the city ended up losing both teams to cities west of Toronto and the eastern time zone in Canada.

The Atlanta market has never gotten a real chance in the NHL. It's not the greatest sports market to begin with, but the NFL, MLB, and NBA have teams there, if nothing else for the potential of such a big market.

I'd agree, for the NHL to try Atlanta again, it would have to have solid ownership, that cares at least somewhat about the game itself. And a place to play.

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12-12-2012, 02:35 PM
  #380
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[mod]

I'm not sure if you're even trying to make a point here, or if you're just being contradictory for its own sake. If I wanted to point out the failure of a Canadian NHL market I would have used Quebec or Winnipeg, not Ottawa. The modern failure is of course more relevant, you're very right about that.

More to the point, it seems to me that a lot of people are having a problem with the fact that market forces have moved the sport away from Canada in the last 40 years. Rather than celebrate the growth of the league they seem to resent that it is somehow no longer entirely theirs -- as if hockey ever really was. There's a few legit passionate QC fans that really deserve a franchise -- more than a few in all likelihood -- but all these Canadians crabbing and beating down southern US markets solely for their own gain would make me very glad if they never see another new team in Canada

[mod]
I want growth believe me, I want a strong 32 team league with 25% Canadian teams, mostly because barring a currency problem, Canadian teams are going to be stable and good for the league as a whole, as they will contribute to a good bottom line, especially considering the value of Canadian television contracts going forward.

Phoenix is a failure, and a lot of people, not just Canadians see it as a money pit and a blight on the league. I love Nashville and Carolina, I think they'll be fine, both are looking up, Florida will be fine cause the CEO is a brilliant Arena Manager. Brooklyn will help the Islanders make more money. Dallas and St Louis are in new hands so hopefully they are run better and become more successful.

I just want Phoenix gone and Quebec is the only viable option at the moment


Last edited by Hank Chinaski: 12-13-2012 at 09:05 AM. Reason: qep
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12-12-2012, 03:00 PM
  #381
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I'm not sure Quebec is

1: the only viable option
2: actually, you know, viable.
3: the best choice going forward considering the direction the rest of the league is trying to go.

A "retreat" back into Canada for better gate revenue but a very limited overall market is a step backward if as a league you're trying to step away from gate driven revenue and capture more revenue from the rest of the market.

I can see the argument for a Quebec move being "safer" but I'm not sure that might not just be a false sense of security. Too many things have to be taken from the "on paper" reasoning and applied to muddled, confusing, unideal reality for me to think that Quebec is going to be the runaway success its fans desperately want it to be.

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12-12-2012, 03:17 PM
  #382
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where are the other owners? end of story. Brand new Arena, ready market, there is going to be good merch sales, a very good local tv contract that will ape anything aside from the major markets. Quebec is exceptionally viable, THEY NEVER LOST MONEY even during the downswing, how does that not show viability.

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12-12-2012, 03:19 PM
  #383
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Don't kid yourself. Other owners and ownership groups will appear when it becomes clearer that there's actually a reason for them to start showing up. Right now the only reason QC is making noise is because the fans in QC want to hear that noise made. It has literally no impact on the actual process. Once that situation changes we'll get a much better idea of what the field of possibilities is.

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12-12-2012, 03:29 PM
  #384
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Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
Don't kid yourself. Other owners and ownership groups will appear when it becomes clearer that there's actually a reason for them to start showing up. Right now the only reason QC is making noise is because the fans in QC want to hear that noise made. It has literally no impact on the actual process. Once that situation changes we'll get a much better idea of what the field of possibilities is.
MOD Seattle guy said he wasn't interested, no one has shown up in Kansas, the only potential left is maybe the Houston Rockets owner but that is unlikely. Getting rid of Phoenix would help make the league seem more viable(it's a money pit that no one wants to be near), and QC is the only option at the moment


Last edited by Killion: 12-12-2012 at 05:38 PM. Reason: easy there...
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12-12-2012, 06:31 PM
  #385
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In the very long run? I absolutely think Winnipeg is a setback. As economic conditions normalize that move will look worse and worse. And even if everything were going to stay the way it is right now, forever, Winnipeg is STILL a setback. No way the NHL wanted to abandon the Atlanta media market -- one of the biggest and most influential media markets in the US, bigger even than its huge size -- in favor of freaking Winnipeg. No way gate revenue makes up for the lack of prestige of not having a toehold at all in that market.

For as long as the NHL is still trying to figure out how to transition from a gate driven league to a media driven league, moving from one of America's biggest and most prestigious media markets (seriously, Canadians will probably underestimate the influence of the Atlanta media market because it's not our biggest city, but a number of big US media companies HQ there, including CNN and TBS, so its impact is TREMENDOUS) in favor of a gate driven location with very limited upside, was one of the worst things that could have happened to them.

There's a world of this sport that goes beyond the bankbook. Losing a franchise in a big media market entirely is a lot worse -- a LOT worse -- than losing a lot of money. There's always a chance while you have a presence in a market for someone to come along who can figure out how to thrive there. Once you leave, that chance is completely gone.

No doubt in my mind the NHL will try again in Atlanta at some point. Heck, Ottawa took three tries to get it right IIRC. No way they let Atlanta go at two. Once other markets are better established and more prestigious around them, and can offer both support and real opponents worth playing in their division, they'll give it another shot.
Read This.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=916116

cbcwpg remembers this, it was right after the move last year.

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12-13-2012, 12:11 AM
  #386
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MOD Seattle guy said he wasn't interested, no one has shown up in Kansas, the only potential left is maybe the Houston Rockets owner but that is unlikely. Getting rid of Phoenix would help make the league seem more viable(it's a money pit that no one wants to be near), and QC is the only option at the moment
The only option? Hardly. You just mentioned at least one very legitimate option. Houston was heavily involved in the last round of expansions and could make a strong case for itself. The Toyota Center has said that it'll only operate for an NHL team if it's owned by the owner of the Rockets. That clause would not exist if that owner were not at least somewhat interested in the NHL. Otherwise, as just a tenant at the venue, the NHL would probably be accepted by the owner with a resounding "meh."

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12-13-2012, 03:19 AM
  #387
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New hockey fans don't appear out of thin air. You can easily tap out every 'hockey city' capable of supporting an NHL team sans revenue sharing and have a 10 or 15 team league. That's not what the business is about. You take the strengths of the big markets, use it to help smaller markets and in the end everyone wins. It's the whole 'growing the game' argument that people like to ignore.

The NFL helps subsidize a few markets, and they're pretty damn successful. You can make a solid argument for more revenue sharing and help for the poor teams.
Great post


Btw let me add this. Do you think the NHLPA wants to see contraction? LOL, hell no.


Last edited by Master Shake: 12-13-2012 at 03:28 AM.
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12-13-2012, 07:50 AM
  #388
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This article is correct but then it makes this point and which basically says that the article is pointless because this will never happen due to the "poorer owners" not randomly deciding to give up their cash cows one day (and maybe they aren't making $ but I don't exactly see the poorer owners trying to get out even if they are losing $ on the NHL side of business. They want those teams).
It'll never happen, but not because of the owners. The NHLPA would never stand seeing all those jobs for players cut.

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12-13-2012, 10:26 AM
  #389
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Problem with expansion was more diluting the talent pool than having unprofitable teams in southern markets.

You look at NHL rosters now, the talent level is a joke.

Teams used to be stacked in the 90's.

Who wants to watch these bums play, since most of these teams have no talent they have to resort to other ways in winning games which equals boring to the non-hardcore fans.

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12-13-2012, 10:32 AM
  #390
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How many teams are supposedly losing money in the NBA?

Are they going to contract? Should they?

NBA top to bottom is even a bigger joke than the NHL.

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12-13-2012, 10:49 AM
  #391
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I don't care if they lose money hand over fist. Abandoning your toe hold in the Atlanta market was the worst thing this sport could have done. Half the media companies in the United States have their HQ's in Atlanta since Ted Turner made it a CNN town. You have to have a squad in that market even if it is the epitome of mediocre, if you want to get the attention of the national media.

I mean no disrespect to the Winnipeg market, but a bird in the hand is not always worth 2 in the bush if you're a good enough hunter, and there's like 40 birds in the bush.

In order to capture US media attention there are 4 markets you absolutely need to penetrate and gain a strong holding in. New York, Chicago, LA, and Atlanta. All 4 are critical for the success of the sport in the long term due to their roles as media towns. Now we're not even competing for one of these 4.


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12-13-2012, 10:55 AM
  #392
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I don't care if they lose money hand over fist. Abandoning your toe hold in the Atlanta market was the worst thing this sport could have done. Half the media companies in the United States have their HQ's in Atlanta since Ted Turner made it a CNN town. You have to have a squad in that market even if it is the epitome of mediocre, if you want to get the attention of the national media.

I mean no disrespect to the Winnipeg market, but a bird in the hand is not always worth 2 in the bush if you're a good enough hunter, and there's like 40 birds in the bush.

In order to capture US media attention there are 4 markets you absolutely need to penetrate and gain a strong holding in. New York, Chicago, LA, and Atlanta. Now we're not even competing for one of these 4.
Boston and Bay Area, DC before atlanta. In fact we need atlanta AND Houston

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12-13-2012, 10:57 AM
  #393
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You say this about Winnipeg:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
In the very long run? I absolutely think Winnipeg is a setback. As economic conditions normalize that move will look worse and worse. And even if everything were going to stay the way it is right now, forever, Winnipeg is STILL a setback. No way the NHL wanted to abandon the Atlanta media market -- one of the biggest and most influential media markets in the US, bigger even than its huge size -- in favor of freaking Winnipeg. No way gate revenue makes up for the lack of prestige of not having a toehold at all in that market.
And then say this?

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Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
I mean no disrespect to the Winnipeg market
As a Winnipegger, I do take that as disrespect because you are saying that my city is not good enough to be in the NHL. How else do you want me to take that? To me, that seems very hypocritical of you. This is the exact attitude from the US that I'm talking about: how it's all about the US now and screw Canada. Well, comments like this make me not want to see anymore teams in the US, especially the south.

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12-13-2012, 11:07 AM
  #394
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When Atlanta moved to Winnipeg, the NHL saw the revenue of this franchise jump from ~$40M to $~$105M. An increase of $65M. They got rid of a problem and made more money in the process.

If all the NHL cared about was growing the American market, why didn't they move the Thrashers to an American city? Why didn't the NHL buy the Thrashers and keep them in Atlanta until they could find an owner? Because in the current situation in Atlanta it was a money loser and because there isn't anyone in the U.S. willing to buy a team at this time. Don't think for one second Bettman didn't put out all his feelers trying to find someone, somewhere to take the Thrashers and keep them in the U.S. Problem was nobody with real money to lose put up their hands.

As far as it being a retreat, it's neutral. The TV executives have spoken. They signed their 10 year TV deal and not having Atlanta ( or even losing Phoenix ) makes no difference to them. The NHL doesn't see putting a team in Winnipeg as having any affect on long term deals the NHL needs to make, otherwise the Thrashers never would have moved to Winnipeg.


Last edited by Killion: 12-13-2012 at 12:42 PM. Reason: qtd del...
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12-13-2012, 11:10 AM
  #395
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The supposedly tiny Winnipeg market came in 10th overall in operating income as per Forbes estimates, and Canadian markets represented 7 of the top 11 NHL markets in that category, so that says all we need to know about the US competition. Many posters obviously argue against more Canadian teams because it will make the marginal US markets appear even more irrelevant by comparison.

Winnipeg may be a small market but apparently it is a large hockey market and that is all that matters at the bank.


Last edited by Killion: 12-13-2012 at 12:46 PM. Reason: qtd del...
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12-13-2012, 11:13 AM
  #396
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As a Winnipegger, I do take that as disrespect because you are saying that my city is not good enough to be in the NHL. How else do you want me to take that? To me, that seems very hypocritical of you. This is the exact attitude from the US that I'm talking about: how it's all about the US now and screw Canada. Well, comments like this make me not want to see anymore teams in the US, especially the south.
He's talking about the longterm marketability of the sport and league. Simply put, Atlanta was a major piece of the southern expansion push. Giving up on it and it's tremendous potential media market in favor of Winnipeg was clearly not what the NHL wanted for its longterm goals.

Winnipeg simply cannot offer to the NHL and it's longterm expansion the same exposure that Atlanta could have. It's really not a knock against Winnipeg to suggest that it isn't some massive media market. It can potentially be a small market niche city for the NHL akin to Edmonton, but doesn't possess the major marketing opportunities of Atlanta. It's not offensive to simply state a fact like that.

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12-13-2012, 11:25 AM
  #397
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He's talking about the longterm marketability of the sport and league. Simply put, Atlanta was a major piece of the southern expansion push. Giving up on it and it's tremendous potential media market in favor of Winnipeg was clearly not what the NHL wanted for its longterm goals.

Winnipeg simply cannot offer to the NHL and it's longterm expansion the same exposure that Atlanta could have. It's really not a knock against Winnipeg to suggest that it isn't some massive media market. It can potentially be a small market niche city for the NHL akin to Edmonton, but doesn't possess the major marketing opportunities of Atlanta. It's not offensive to simply state a fact like that.
I agree. Of course the NHL wanted to keep a team in Atlanta, but IMO the NHL didn't give up on Atlanta, the people that could have bought the team and kept it there, gave up on Atlanta. The NHL doesn't "normally" buy and sell and own teams ( the Coyotes being the exception ), but when I look at Atlanta I see a very large city with some serious companies and individuals with money, yet none of them came forward to keep the Thrashers. Why? The people with money have spoken, and at this time they don't see it as a viable market. As much as the NHL may want to stay, they had no choice.

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12-13-2012, 11:40 AM
  #398
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Boston and Bay Area, DC before atlanta.
Not true from the perspective I'm talking about.

You need to hit the media where it lives. More of the media lives in Atlanta than lives in New England or the Bay Area. Purely from a HRR standpoint yes, those other three markets outrank, but not from a media standpoint. Washington's never been a media-critical place to make a stand from a sports standpoint, but Atlanta has since the day Ted Turner used his media empire to make the Braves a national team. You absolutely need a presence in that town, and to hope that ownership eventually figures out how to make it there.

Put it this way. You'd be surprised how many marketing decisions are made by media companies based at least partly on the personal, anecdotal experience of their own executives. It tends to be the tiebreaker in any close call for obvious reasons. If those executives have no chance of watching a local NHL game, but can watch MLB, NBA and NFL at will, there's no way the NHL can sell itself to that company as a rival of the NBA, MLB and NFL. You basically take a series of competitors to bid for The Big National Media Deal, right off the board if you don't have a presence in towns where the media types gather.

Even a mediocre Atlanta team with at least some likeability has a chance to put the sport on the map of executive boardrooms of the media companies that HQ in the town it plays in. That's pure money, and walking away from it in favor of yet another midsize Canadian town, even if it does better at the gate, is still a huge loss


Last edited by Dojji*: 12-13-2012 at 11:50 AM.
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12-13-2012, 12:12 PM
  #399
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Even a mediocre Atlanta team with at least some likeability has a chance to put the sport on the map of executive boardrooms of the media companies that HQ in the town it plays in. That's pure money, and walking away from it in favor of yet another midsize Canadian town, even if it does better at the gate, is still a huge loss
And that's exactly what Atlanta had. A mediocre team with some likeability, yet when it was time for one of the locals to step up and buy the team, they all walked away.

Seems to me the people writing the cheques in Atlanta feel differently about the prospects of having a team there.

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12-13-2012, 12:14 PM
  #400
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And again you miss the point..... [Mod]

It's not about whether Atlanta was succeeding. Any dope could see it wasn't. The point is that the upside if Atlanta did succeed is worth far more than the difference between whever Winnipeg makes and the money Atlanta was losing. If there was a team the NHL should have Phoenixed, it was the Thrashers.

Heck, they really should consider moving the Coyotes to Atlanta. A solid team in that market could do a lot of good. And I doubt the players would complain too loudly.


Last edited by Killion: 12-13-2012 at 12:44 PM. Reason: not reqd...
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