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What happened to Lecavalier?

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Old
12-14-2012, 09:31 AM
  #101
MrFunnyWobbl
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Injuries it would seem.

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12-14-2012, 10:35 AM
  #102
Yossarian54
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Originally Posted by Stephen View Post
You also have to understand that Tampa Bay was going into the toilet right as Lecavalier was hitting his peak. You cite 2008 and how the Lightning were outshot, but you completely ignore the fact that they were also in the midst of their worst season since the lockout, jettisoned Brad Richards at the deadline, and drafted first overall that June, picking Steven Stamkos.
That kind of plays into his initial point though, that Lecavalier's best years were (relative) statistical abberations when his shooting percentage and shots per game were concurrently elevated. Ergo, he was lucky/it was randomness (high shot percentage) and the team was bad, therefore he shot more himself or received more passes like another poster mentioned (shots per game massively increased). The statistics certainly reflect the situation the team was in, but they also indicate that the seasons in question were influenced somewhat by randomness.

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12-14-2012, 10:40 AM
  #103
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That's not exactly true. A lot has to do with his shoulder, thank you Matt Cooke. Last season was his first season since that injury, he said it felt 100% if not close, then he hurt his wrist.
That's exactly why. I believe it was 08-09, in one of the last games of the season, he separated his shoulder. Was never really the same after that.

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Old
12-14-2012, 10:46 AM
  #104
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If anyone has ever dealt with shoulder injuries you know that despite orthroscopic surgery and physical therapy, there are cases where you never regain full strength and mobility. And there is always a chance of reinjury or joint slippage/clicking.

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12-14-2012, 10:56 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Moosie View Post
That megacontract sure didn't help.
This and some injuries...I really think the big money has these guys lose their motivation...

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12-14-2012, 11:53 AM
  #106
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This and some injuries...I really think the big money has these guys lose their motivation...
I read that a lot around here but I don't think that's true. Just because he earns a **** load of money now, that shouldn't change his attitude towards hockey. If you love the game and playing it on the highest possible level as much as those guys do, it shouldn't (and probably doesn't) matter if they do it for $800k, $4 million or $10 million per year.

Honestly, I do think motivation is a part of his problem. But for other reasons than his contract / the money:

1. His shoulder hasn't felt right for so long now and in the meantime he has suffered a broken hand and underwent wrist surgery, too. That's frustrating. He has missed almost 20 games in each of his last two seasons.

2. He has lost his spot as the go-to guy and #1 C on the team to Steven Stamkos (except for the playoffs - but for how much longer?), doesn't get to play with his friend and favorite linemate Martin St. Louis that often anymore. He gets less total TOI, less TOI with the 1st PP unit (and thus less PP time in total), less TOI on the 4v4, in OT and other situations when we need a goal (well, that's only partly true since he's still our go-to guy for offensive faceoffs), and so on. St. Louis and him scored a ton of SHGs in the past but I can't even remember the last time Vinny was on the ice on the PK for more than 10 seconds because it's been that long ago.

3. He is married now and has two children with a third one on the way.

4. He has already won the Stanley Cup; and a gold medal (with him as the tournament's MVP).


Those things are definitely in his head. Then again, he's no Redden. He's still contributing - on and off the ice. He was a force for us in the playoffs a year ago. He has scored at least 20 goals in each of his last 12 seasons - despite all injuries, trade rumors, terrible ownership for years and all those bad teams he's played for before Vinik and Yzerman came into town.


Last edited by LightningStrikes: 12-14-2012 at 11:58 AM.
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Old
12-14-2012, 11:55 AM
  #107
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He got his lifetime contract, lost motivation.

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Old
12-14-2012, 12:08 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Crease View Post
If anyone has ever dealt with shoulder injuries you know that despite orthroscopic surgery and physical therapy, there are cases where you never regain full strength and mobility. And there is always a chance of reinjury or joint slippage/clicking.
Yeah, i got problems in my shoulder from going to the gym about a year ago. Before it got better i really felt what kind of devastating problem that is, not being able to lift your arm in different directions without at best pain, at worst a mechanical lock being there.

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Old
12-14-2012, 12:18 PM
  #109
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Yeah, i got problems in my shoulder from going to the gym about a year ago. Before it got better i really felt what kind of devastating problem that is, not being able to lift your arm in different directions without at best pain, at worst a mechanical lock being there.
The season after his shoulder surgery that Lecavalier played, he couldn't raise his arm high enough to put on his jersey in the normal manner. Shaved his head because he couldn't raise that arm high enough to even wash/comb his hair. He probably shouldn't have played at all that year but, since he's "unmotivated," chose to play through the pain. Stats-wise and fan-conclusion-leaping-wise, it was probably a bad choice.

Subsequent surgeries on both wrists, I believe both hands and a knee didn't exactly help, either.

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Old
12-14-2012, 05:12 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by eklunds source View Post
Well...

SeasonShots per gameShooting percentage
98-991.5210.4%
99-002.0815.1%
00-012.4313.9%
01-022.1612.2%
02-033.4312.0%
03-042.9913.2%
05-063.8611.3%
06-074.1315.3%
07-083.9312.6%
08-093.7810.0%
09-103.608.1%
10-113.2311.9%
11-122.8412.1%

Those two seasons his shots per game were only slightly up from the surrounding years, and when that happens with a bump in shooting percentage, you get outlier years which are very unlikely to be repeated. Look at any player who shoots more than 3% over their career average in a given season.

It's no different than Corey Perry shooting 17%+ and scoring 50, or any other player who had a spike in shooting percentage. It makes them look a lot better than they actually are.

TLDR: Lecavalier wasn't actually as good as his point totals indicate those two seasons, but he's also struggled the last 2 seasons with injuries (as you can see by his shots per game) and less prime offensive minutes (see: Stamkos).
Sadly, hes been injured the last four seasons. Hes had a pretty ridiculous streak of bad luck when it comes to injuries. It took almost two full seasons for him to get back to using his shoulder correctly, and just when he looked alive again, he ****s up his wrist and breaks some bones in his hand.

This has been a pretty big topic in the past on the TB board as well as on boltprospects, trying to figure out if its injuries, lack of motivation, poor usage, facing better opponents...

I think you're not looking deep enough at his stats, actually - while I agree that a temporary bump in shooting percentage is simply that and will regress to career averages, up to his 52 goal season he was averaging about 12.5% so it isn't as huge of a jump as it seems, and had actually shot over 13% in 2003-2004 on a much more stacked team that won the cup. After he found his spot on the circles and cleaned up his technique a bit, he found the back of the net more with only a slight increase of shooting percentage. In 2007-2008, he scored 40 while sitting at his career average shooting percentage and was really more indicitive of his true talent level (pre injury, of course). From there you see where his numbers have dropped off which he later admitted was because of a lack of power in his shooting/follow through and lack of trust to be able to hit people with this shoulder and use his body more towards his advantage. He was most effective when he was over the 305 shots/year mark and hasn't touched that since.

He at least worked on his all around game which was a refreshing change of pace, if you look at his numbers last year, yes he was injured but still played over 60 games, managed a plus two on a team that was littered with negatives because we carried two goaltenders who were under .890 save percentage almost all of the year, only managed 182 shots but still shot over 12% and had 49 points. If that hand and wrist are solid and he can pull the trigger like he used to, I think its possible he could have 1-3 seasons as a 35-35-70 player again. I'd bet against it... but its possible.

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Old
12-14-2012, 05:22 PM
  #111
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Is it likely Lecavalier would be bought out if there was an amnesty buyout? A couple buddies who are Lightning fans think it's possible. Though we don't know what will happen with the buyouts anyway.

I think he's still a number 1 center, and will be for a couple more seasons, but he's just on a bad contract. I would love Lecavalier on the Devils, but I think he'd still come at a price that isn't cheap.

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Old
12-14-2012, 05:57 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Bleedred View Post
Is it likely Lecavalier would be bought out if there was an amnesty buyout? A couple buddies who are Lightning fans think it's possible. Though we don't know what will happen with the buyouts anyway.

I think he's still a number 1 center, and will be for a couple more seasons, but he's just on a bad contract. I would love Lecavalier on the Devils, but I think he'd still come at a price that isn't cheap.
Why he could be: Not in favor of management, don't believe he'll rebound, cost

Why he wouldn't be: Lack of available options matching an injured VL4

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Old
12-14-2012, 05:57 PM
  #113
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injury, guaranteed contract, and easy enjoyable lifestyle.

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Old
12-14-2012, 06:53 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Yossarian54 View Post
That kind of plays into his initial point though, that Lecavalier's best years were (relative) statistical abberations when his shooting percentage and shots per game were concurrently elevated. Ergo, he was lucky/it was randomness (high shot percentage) and the team was bad, therefore he shot more himself or received more passes like another poster mentioned (shots per game massively increased). The statistics certainly reflect the situation the team was in, but they also indicate that the seasons in question were influenced somewhat by randomness.
That's a silly assertion, to assume a highly touted player entering his prime seasons taking a bad team and putting it on his shoulders offensively is somehow "randomness".

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Old
12-14-2012, 07:42 PM
  #115
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He's always been overrated at least in my opinion.

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Old
12-14-2012, 09:08 PM
  #116
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22-23 minutes down to 18-19 min per game. that's a big difference, around 4 shifts a game.

truth is if you actually watch vinny live he's still one of the more dominant centers in the game when he's on the ice.

and don't forget stammer gets to play with marty now too. no sqwaking from vinny there either. vinny will never make a peep about it but he doesn't have much to work with out there.

the contract (and the cup)allow him to stay out of the dumb sh@# during the regular season, so that contributes the #'s decline a bit too.

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Old
12-14-2012, 09:20 PM
  #117
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Lmfao, ya right
actually, he is right. hate to break it to you.

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