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Old
12-12-2012, 04:40 PM
  #26
garret9
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post


When Little scores 40+ goals and wins a Selke, then maybe. Factoring a year when he was playing through injuries and such to twist advanced statistics doesn't change that.
I was showing how they scored at similar rates the last two years...

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12-12-2012, 04:52 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I was showing how they scored at similar rates the last two years...
In 2011 Kesler got 1.26 G/60, Little never came anywhere near that. If you want you can make an argument that Little is close to 2012 Kesler, who was playing through a torn labrum and had a revolving door of linemates. But no way in heck is he close to the 2011 Kesler.

EDIT: Also, before Kesler's injury in February, he was on pace for 63 points.


Last edited by Vankiller Whale: 12-12-2012 at 05:01 PM.
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12-12-2012, 05:30 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post


When Little scores 40+ goals and wins a Selke, then maybe. Factoring a year when he was playing through injuries and such to twist advanced statistics doesn't change that.
Garret is one of the more knowledgable hockey fans on this site, he's not trying to knock on Kes at all. Outside of physicality, Little and Kesler play similar game, as Little has a very good two way game.

I havent looked at the stats yet, but i'm pretty sure Garret didn't try to twist anything to make them look similar at all.

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12-12-2012, 05:35 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
In 2011 Kesler got 1.26 G/60, Little never came anywhere near that. If you want you can make an argument that Little is close to 2012 Kesler, who was playing through a torn labrum and had a revolving door of linemates. But no way in heck is he close to the 2011 Kesler.


1) similar =/= same... I never said they were same, just similar
2) injury doesn't mean increase of value, means decrease

Yes Kesler got 1.26 g/60... but Little's 0.85 g/60 is still better than any other year of Kesler's career...
I don't use Little's 1.12 g/60 year for evaluating the true Little?


hey I'm not against Kesler... I don't think Little = Kesler... but they did perform similarly (Selke nominations aside)... sorry... yes, for Kesler it may be due to injury, but you don't know if he will ever come back 100% which was my whole point... when dealing with trades we are discussing value

And Little had injuries too. The problem with using injuries as an excuse is everyone has them.


EDIT:
I'd like to also add that saying your second C is only slightly better than our 1C isn't really much of an insult.


Last edited by garret9: 12-12-2012 at 06:06 PM.
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12-12-2012, 06:05 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post


1) similar =/= same... I never said they were same, just similar
2) injury doesn't mean increase of value, means decrease

Yes Kesler got 1.26 g/60... but Little's 0.85 g/60 is still better than any other year of Kesler's career...
I don't use Little's 1.12 g/60 year for evaluating the true Little?


hey I'm not against Kesler... I don't think Little = Kesler... but they did perform similarly (Selke nominations aside)... sorry... yes, for Kesler it may be due to injury, but you don't know if he will ever come back 100% which was my whole point... when dealing with trades we are discussing value

And Little had injuries too. The problem with using injuries as an excuse is everyone has them.
You aren't supposed to respond to unecessary face palms with more legitimate evidence to support and clarify your position garret. It's not the hf way...

I as well was 100% Canucks before the Jets returned. Kesler was my favourite player on the team, but Vankiller knows he's being misleading when he champions Kesler as a 40 goal scorer in the perceived sense of the phrase. He's a 25/40/65 guy with Selke calibre defense. Awesome to have, but like garret is saying besides the defensive advantage they are closer than you'd think. Little is even more of a sniper, better finish than Kesler.

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12-12-2012, 06:15 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post


1) similar =/= same... I never said they were same, just similar
2) injury doesn't mean increase of value, means decrease

Yes Kesler got 1.26 g/60... but Little's 0.85 g/60 is still better than any other year of Kesler's career...
I don't use Little's 1.12 g/60 year for evaluating the true Little?


hey I'm not against Kesler... I don't think Little = Kesler... but they did perform similarly (Selke nominations aside)... sorry... yes, for Kesler it may be due to injury, but you don't know if he will ever come back 100% which was my whole point... when dealing with trades we are discussing value

And Little had injuries too. The problem with using injuries as an excuse is everyone has them.


EDIT:
I'd like to also add that saying your second C is only slightly better than our 1C isn't really much of an insult.
Well if you think that the Kesler of last year is the Kesler we'll be seeing from now on, then you would be correct. But if we assume that Kesler would likely get around 65 points with Selke calibre defense, and compare that to a smallish forward good for around 50 points, I find it really hard to say that they are similar players. Kesler can be compared to players like Mike Richards, Bergeron, Backes, etc. Not Little.

But if you think one bad year is enough to make Kesler a 50 point player(and we'll just throw out his defensive game, too), then that's fine. There's no way on earth we'd trade him for Dustin Byfuglien just because you think he's only a minor upgrade on Brian Little.

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12-12-2012, 06:34 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Well if you think that the Kesler of last year is the Kesler we'll be seeing from now on, then you would be correct. But if we assume that Kesler would likely get around 65 points with Selke calibre defense, and compare that to a smallish forward good for around 50 points, I find it really hard to say that they are similar players. Kesler can be compared to players like Mike Richards, Bergeron, Backes, etc. Not Little.

But if you think one bad year is enough to make Kesler a 50 point player(and we'll just throw out his defensive game, too), then that's fine. There's no way on earth we'd trade him for Dustin Byfuglien just because you think he's only a minor upgrade on Brian Little.
More putting words into someone's mouth. One guy said it would take Kesler+ or Hamhuis+. I even said that was wrong before any Canucks fans replied...explained it pretty well why it was even in value, but made little sense (NPI ).

Little hasn't scored 40, but he did score 30 earlier in his career. I had the biggest man crush on 2011 Kesler imaginable, but the man was possessed that whole year. No one could keep up that calibre of effort and determination forever..

Maybe do a little more brain learning on Little instead of rolling with smallish 50 point forward. Learn what he does well and struggles with the way you know Kesler and then beak someone who has actually done a fair bit of research on the comparison?

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12-12-2012, 06:53 PM
  #33
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Let's use the Brent Burns trade as a benchmark for value here. Hell, they're even the same kind of player, someone you can convert between F and D.

I'd play him on defense if Fletcher traded for him and wing on the PP. Suter could probably cover his defensive lapses. Maybe Setoguchi+Phillips+2014 1st+2013 2nd?

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12-12-2012, 07:01 PM
  #34
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Let's use the Brent Burns trade as a benchmark for value here. Hell, they're even the same kind of player, someone you can convert between F and D.

I'd play him on defense if Fletcher traded for him and wing on the PP. Suter could probably cover his defensive lapses. Maybe Setoguchi+Phillips+2014 1st+2013 2nd?
Brent Burns and Buff are not the same trade nor the same value. Burns was one season away from UFA, so that definitely hurt his value.

I highly doubt that Buff will be traded, because he's just irreplaceable to be honest. It would have to be an immediate impact player that replaces him. Keep in mind goligoski returned James Neal, so it has to be something close to that for us to consider it.

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12-12-2012, 07:06 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post


1) similar =/= same... I never said they were same, just similar
2) injury doesn't mean increase of value, means decrease

Yes Kesler got 1.26 g/60... but Little's 0.85 g/60 is still better than any other year of Kesler's career...
I don't use Little's 1.12 g/60 year for evaluating the true Little?


hey I'm not against Kesler... I don't think Little = Kesler... but they did perform similarly (Selke nominations aside)... sorry... yes, for Kesler it may be due to injury, but you don't know if he will ever come back 100% which was my whole point... when dealing with trades we are discussing value

And Little had injuries too. The problem with using injuries as an excuse is everyone has them.


EDIT:
I'd like to also add that saying your second C is only slightly better than our 1C isn't really much of an insult.
If you would have said they performed similarily last season I would have understood, but since you're looking at two seasons I can't quite wrap my head around it.

Kesler's averaged 61 points to Little's 47, which is quite a significant difference, and outproduced him in both goals and assists over the last two seasons.

Kesler puts 1.5 shots on goal for every 1 of Little's, and almost 3 times as many hits and blocks as Little does.

Little is also the beneficiary of more offensive zone starts, and better even strength linemates (although Kesler has a huge advantage on the PP). Not to mention Little's actually averaged more TOI than Kes the last two seasons.

I respect your opinion, and the thought put into it, however I just can't get over the sheer differences in production on the stat sheet. Advanced stats are great, and Little's are certainly impressive, but in this case they don't tell the whole story. I'll also clarify that I was never insulted by your claim, I just couldn't see it, and still can't for that matter.

Cheers


Last edited by StringerBell: 12-12-2012 at 07:15 PM.
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12-12-2012, 07:11 PM
  #36
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John Michael Liles, Nazem Kadri and a 2nd.

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12-12-2012, 07:21 PM
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John Michael Liles, Nazem Kadri and a 2nd.
JVR, Colbourne, 1st

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12-12-2012, 07:29 PM
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JVR, Colbourne, 1st
Nah. Leafs don't need him that badly.

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12-12-2012, 07:33 PM
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Nah. Leafs don't need him that badly.
Make Colbourne Biggs then?

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12-12-2012, 08:22 PM
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Make Colbourne Biggs then?
That's worse.

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12-12-2012, 10:46 PM
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If you would have said they performed similarily last season I would have understood, but since you're looking at two seasons I can't quite wrap my head around it.

Kesler's averaged 61 points to Little's 47, which is quite a significant difference, and outproduced him in both goals and assists over the last two seasons.

Kesler puts 1.5 shots on goal for every 1 of Little's, and almost 3 times as many hits and blocks as Little does.

Little is also the beneficiary of more offensive zone starts, and better even strength linemates (although Kesler has a huge advantage on the PP). Not to mention Little's actually averaged more TOI than Kes the last two seasons.

I respect your opinion, and the thought put into it, however I just can't get over the sheer differences in production on the stat sheet. Advanced stats are great, and Little's are certainly impressive, but in this case they don't tell the whole story. I'll also clarify that I was never insulted by your claim, I just couldn't see it, and still can't for that matter.

Cheers
To me, this will probably go in circles. Seems more of a "would you sleep with me for 10 million dollars" "yes" "5 dollars" "No; who do you think I am" "well we already established who you are; now we're just haggling price"

Yes their styles are a different. Kesler get's more points by shooting more and Little get's more by getting into sweet zones, thus raising his sh%. Kesler is edgier, and more physical, but Little isn't a pushover and gets a lot less penalties.
Little got more OZS (5%), but faced higher competition (which can be measured by corsi or opponents TOI if you don't like advance stats).
Little got more toi/gp but Kesler got more gp.
Little had "better linemates" but Kesler was on a stronger team.
The big difference between the, result wise, is in scoring occurs from the PP where Kesler > Little big time.

I guess it's all relative.

Cheers.

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12-12-2012, 11:17 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
To me, this will probably go in circles. Seems more of a "would you sleep with me for 10 million dollars" "yes" "5 dollars" "No; who do you think I am" "well we already established who you are; now we're just haggling price"

Yes their styles are a different. Kesler get's more points by shooting more and Little get's more by getting into sweet zones, thus raising his sh%. Kesler is edgier, and more physical, but Little isn't a pushover and gets a lot less penalties.
Little got more OZS (5%), but faced higher competition (which can be measured by corsi or opponents TOI if you don't like advance stats).
Little got more toi/gp but Kesler got more gp.
Little had "better linemates" but Kesler was on a stronger team.
The big difference between the, result wise, is in scoring occurs from the PP where Kesler > Little big time.

I guess it's all relative.

Cheers.
Nah, no circles, I'm not one of those guys on here seeking conflict. I respect your opinion, I just happen to disagree that they've been almost identical the past two seasons. On a related note, I think their games would compliment each other perfectly. A Kane/Booth-Kesler-Little line would be well worth the price of admission.

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12-12-2012, 11:29 PM
  #43
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Nah, no circles, I'm not one of those guys on here seeking conflict. I respect your opinion, I just happen to disagree that they've been almost identical the past two seasons. On a related note, I think their games would compliment each other perfectly. A Kane/Booth-Kesler-Little line would be well worth the price of admission.
I'd pay for that!

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12-14-2012, 03:25 AM
  #44
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In my opinion, as a Jets fan, Kesler is not even in Little's wheelhouse. After watching the Moose for years and subsequently being a Nucks fan until the Jets came back, it's not even close. Kesler is far better.

I agree with whoever said Buff's value is staying in Winnipeg. I like him here. Other teams adjust because he does what he does and that's unconventional. He's a D-man who is okay being behind the oppositions net. I think his pay off is too large to consider any deals. No dice from me.

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12-14-2012, 10:03 AM
  #45
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He scores a ton and racks up a lot of points, and plays top line minutes, but his defensive lapses sometimes lead people to question his ability. While he is a fan favourite in Winnipeg, I think the Jets management is looking to build a disciplined system from the top down and his freelancing style and interesting persona is kind of opposite of that philosophy. If he were to be dealt, what kind of return would teams be offering?
Is Winnipeg willing to pay the shipping to wherever he gets traded?

There is a lot of cost to move something that heavy...

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12-14-2012, 11:31 AM
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Is Winnipeg willing to pay the shipping to wherever he gets traded?

There is a lot of cost to move something that heavy...
HA HA you made a fat joke. Funny!

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12-15-2012, 12:34 AM
  #47
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For all the Buff at forward comments, it isn't going to happen. Buff has repeatedly said he wants to play D and only D. Something about less skating...

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12-16-2012, 02:02 PM
  #48
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From a trade standpoint, we'll keep him for this year for sure, maybe even 2014. The Jets would need a top 4 d-man to replace Buff's minutes, if we were to deal him. I don't see this move taking place anytime soon, since we'd need to build up our prospects in our system and develop them to the point that they could replace players on the roster (not currently there). The Jets are wanting to compete for a playoff spot as soon as possible. Moving Buff right now doesn't do that.

Now as a value of thread...

A) A single player with equal value (top pairing D, top 6 RW)

B) A top 4 defender + top prospect + 1st rounder.

Most fans would prefer option A, since we think we should be competing for the playoffs right now. A quantity for quality trade doesn't help us currently.
Well looking at the two options coming from the Senators aspect, I could see something being worked out.

A) Work out a deal revovling around Michalek for Byfuglien

Reasoning:

I would love to keep Michalek on our team, but no piece is to sacred for the right deal. His contract is up at the end of 13/14 so if we can pick up a good player on a long term deal in exchange then it might be worth the swap rather then risking his loss to free agency. Plus with a glut of young forwards coming up the pipes and the relative ease of aquiring forwards over defencemen in free agency the Senators could afford to make the swap.

Michalek is a great two-way speedster with hands enough to pot 35g last year. He can play the PK and the PP. The biggest knock is that Michalek is more of a complimentary player, and relies on others to make him a better player. Can easily slot in on either wing on the top 2 lines with ease.

For Ottawa they would take Byfuglien in order to shore up their Top 4 defencemen going into the future. With Karlsson and Cowen (out for the season) looking to lead the team on the back end, there is little else to look forward to in the system except for Ceci who may take a while to make the NHL.

Talent for talent.

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12-16-2012, 04:32 PM
  #49
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Well looking at the two options coming from the Senators aspect, I could see something being worked out.

A) Work out a deal revovling around Michalek for Byfuglien

Reasoning:

I would love to keep Michalek on our team, but no piece is to sacred for the right deal. His contract is up at the end of 13/14 so if we can pick up a good player on a long term deal in exchange then it might be worth the swap rather then risking his loss to free agency. Plus with a glut of young forwards coming up the pipes and the relative ease of aquiring forwards over defencemen in free agency the Senators could afford to make the swap.

Michalek is a great two-way speedster with hands enough to pot 35g last year. He can play the PK and the PP. The biggest knock is that Michalek is more of a complimentary player, and relies on others to make him a better player. Can easily slot in on either wing on the top 2 lines with ease.

For Ottawa they would take Byfuglien in order to shore up their Top 4 defencemen going into the future. With Karlsson and Cowen (out for the season) looking to lead the team on the back end, there is little else to look forward to in the system except for Ceci who may take a while to make the NHL.

Talent for talent.
I think this deal is good in principle, but Michalek needs to be added to I would think. Even at that, I think we could get a better deal elsewhere.

I'd be tempted to do it, with a plus, if our first line center was a player like Jason Spezza...but it's not. It's Bryan Little. There's really not alot there for Michalek to compliment.

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12-16-2012, 04:35 PM
  #50
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Knowing Vancouver's roster well myself, and given the OP's statements on the Jets are accurate IMO..

Jensen, Tanev and a 1st is probably about right. Three good prospects from Vancouver, certainly. But Byfuglien hasn't even reached his potential as an all around player. Probably never will, but he definitely grew as a defenseman a ton over the course of the year.

The two young guys and a 1st would certainly fill two of our long term spots. Claude Noel has been known for developing defenseman specifically. That alone makes me think the Jets should hang on to Buff. He's a game changer in a way not many defenseman are.

Put it this way, the package Vancouver would be giving up would put them in ultra win now mode, but short term Buff would be worth it.

Imagine Bieksa, but 275 lbs with better skating ability paired with Hamhuis...
Steep price. I'd pass on that, but understand why you'd ask for it.

Bieksa and Byfuglien aren't very comparable though. They're both tough guys, Bieksa is much better defensively while Byfuglien is better offensively and on the PP.

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