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Justin Schultz

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Old
12-16-2012, 01:24 PM
  #526
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
So you see no reason he can't walk in as a rooking and have a top 5 shooting % among dmen?
have you seen his wrist shot? The kid can snipe with the best of them

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12-16-2012, 01:41 PM
  #527
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Haters gonna hate. The kid is an offensive juggernaut, please bring it up when it actually starts happening instead of your expert hypothesis probably supported by watching 0 games

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12-16-2012, 01:51 PM
  #528
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
So you see no reason he can't walk in as a rooking and have a top 5 shooting % among dmen?
I see absolutely no reason why he can't be around 10%. His shots are not primarily shots to just get on net, many of them are labeled and the kid has really good accuracy on his wrist shot. What do you think that he'll shoot? Gardiner shot 8.9% last year without top PP duty and without guys that can move the puck around as good as RNH and Eberle. Why can't Schultz shoot 1.1% better? For the record Gardiner is currently shooting at 12.2% or 3.2% better than last year in the NHL. At this point it should be clear that Schultz is the better goal scorer of the two and Gardiner was a top 25 shooting accuracy among D overall and top 15-20 among guys that played 40+ games last year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Once again you do realize that only 1 Dman shot over 10% in the NHL last year right?

All players regress to the norm, he is a great prospect and is off to a great start in the AHL but man you are just feeding an unrealistic hype machine here and it's not supported by actual NHL facts, in fact the hype ignores the reality of the NHL.
The reality is that like Eberle he doesn't just throw shots on net, if the shot isn't there he'd rather move it than let go of a poor shot. The reality is that he jumps into the play exceptionally well and that probably 1/4-1/5 of his shots will be from the faceoff circles and in. The reality is that he has a tremendous wrist shot with tremendous accuracy. The reality is that he'll be playing with high end passers with great hockey IQ and vision and that he is also a high end passer and has a great offensive hockey IQ. Again where do you see him at? IMO he'll be a 10% or better shooter, since you think that I'm wrong get your number out and let's see who's closer when the time comes.

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Old
12-16-2012, 02:10 PM
  #529
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
So you see no reason he can't walk in as a rooking and have a top 5 shooting % among dmen?
Yep. His wrist shot is exceptional for a dman.

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12-16-2012, 04:02 PM
  #530
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Originally Posted by jebs View Post
Yep. His wrist shot is exceptional for a dman.
So was ray bourque's. He topped 10% 3 times in his long career. It's not that it isn't possible, just that it is foolish to expect it. Shooting percentage is just about the most unpredictable stat out there. Year to year variance is huge.

I took a quick look at the guys with over 10% as d men last year and didn't come across any for which last year was not a career year in shooting percentage, so the moral is don't use ' shot % when making projections

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12-16-2012, 04:37 PM
  #531
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
So was ray bourque's. He topped 10% 3 times in his long career. It's not that it isn't possible, just that it is foolish to expect it. Shooting percentage is just about the most unpredictable stat out there. Year to year variance is huge.

I took a quick look at the guys with over 10% as d men last year and didn't come across any for which last year was not a career year in shooting percentage, so the moral is don't use ' shot % when making projections
I still haven't seen you chime in with a number.....

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12-16-2012, 04:51 PM
  #532
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I still haven't seen you chime in with a number.....
I'd be better off buying a lottery ticket, that's kinda the point.

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12-16-2012, 04:58 PM
  #533
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
So was ray bourque's. He topped 10% 3 times in his long career. It's not that it isn't possible, just that it is foolish to expect it. Shooting percentage is just about the most unpredictable stat out there. Year to year variance is huge.

I took a quick look at the guys with over 10% as d men last year and didn't come across any for which last year was not a career year in shooting percentage, so the moral is don't use ' shot % when making projections
Lubo Visnovsky topped 10% 4 times. Visnovsky >>> Bourque.

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12-16-2012, 04:59 PM
  #534
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Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
I'd be better off buying a lottery ticket, that's kinda the point.
You seem pretty certain that it won't be 10% or greater, so what's wrong with picking a number?

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12-16-2012, 05:06 PM
  #535
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
You seem pretty certain that it won't be 10% or greater, so what's wrong with picking a number?
You really don't get it. If I say he gets 8 and he hits 8 on the dot, I won't get any more satisfaction then if I guessed the right number when somebody says pick a number between 1 and10.

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12-16-2012, 05:13 PM
  #536
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Originally Posted by Roo Mad Bro View Post
"He is an elite player"









"He is an elite player"







"He is an elite player"

LOL please. ****er hasn't even stepped foot on NHL ice and he's already being called an "elite" player.

****ing lol.
He has as many points as a guy who had 78 pts in the NHL last year in his FIRST professional season in hockey. He is absolutely ****** the **** out of the 2nd best league in NA. On pace for 115+ points. Yes, Justin Schultz is an elite player right now. The most impressive season thus far in all professional hockey leagues.

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12-16-2012, 05:15 PM
  #537
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Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
You really don't get it. If I say he gets 8 and he hits 8 on the dot, I won't get any more satisfaction then if I guessed the right number when somebody says pick a number between 1 and10.
No I think that you don't get it, you seem rather certain that he won't hit or exceed 10%. It's not a matter of getting a number on the button, he could shoot 11% or 5%, anything is possible. However I have said that I could see him reaching or exceeding 10%, not sure why you can't just pick a number since you are so certain that 10% is too high.

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12-16-2012, 05:20 PM
  #538
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
No I think that you don't get it, you seem rather certain that he won't hit or exceed 10%. It's not a matter of getting a number on the button, he could shoot 11% or 5%, anything is possible. However I have said that I could see him reaching or exceeding 10%, not sure why you can't just pick a number since you are so certain that 10% is too high.
here ya go, http://www.random.org/integers/?num=...t=html&rnd=new

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12-16-2012, 05:55 PM
  #539
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Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
19% eh? Are you sure you're not being a little ambitious?

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12-16-2012, 07:42 PM
  #540
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Originally Posted by The Nuge View Post
19% eh? Are you sure you're not being a little ambitious?
Go big or go home

The point is, every year, about 20 d-men hit 10%+, and only about half of them actually play 40+ games. The other important thing to notice is that the list is pretty much a completely new set of guys every year. He could hit 19, or 2 just as easily.

None of this will take away from him being a fantastic prospect, who any team or fan would love to have playing for them, it's just that Sh% is a coin flip not really worth making any prediction on.

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12-16-2012, 08:44 PM
  #541
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
I see absolutely no reason why he can't be around 10%. His shots are not primarily shots to just get on net, many of them are labeled and the kid has really good accuracy on his wrist shot. What do you think that he'll shoot? Gardiner shot 8.9% last year without top PP duty and without guys that can move the puck around as good as RNH and Eberle. Why can't Schultz shoot 1.1% better? For the record Gardiner is currently shooting at 12.2% or 3.2% better than last year in the NHL. At this point it should be clear that Schultz is the better goal scorer of the two and Gardiner was a top 25 shooting accuracy among D overall and top 15-20 among guys that played 40+ games last year.



The reality is that like Eberle he doesn't just throw shots on net, if the shot isn't there he'd rather move it than let go of a poor shot. The reality is that he jumps into the play exceptionally well and that probably 1/4-1/5 of his shots will be from the faceoff circles and in. The reality is that he has a tremendous wrist shot with tremendous accuracy. The reality is that he'll be playing with high end passers with great hockey IQ and vision and that he is also a high end passer and has a great offensive hockey IQ. Again where do you see him at? IMO he'll be a 10% or better shooter, since you think that I'm wrong get your number out and let's see who's closer when the time comes.
Why are you comparing gardiner's NHL time to the AHL? The AHL is better this year than in the past but it still isn't anywhere near the NHL.

Sure Gardiner shot at 8.9% but he only took 79 SOG. The stats show pretty clearly that players more involved in the offense, ie guys on d who take more shot cannot sustain that type of shooting %.

It's the exception rather than the norm.

If Schultz only takes his best 79 SOG in a season then sure maybe he makes your 10% mark but it would be hurting his team and karma has a way of catching up to any such effort anyways (which is 100% unlikely to occur in real life anyways)

Below is the shooting % of all Dmen who shot more than 160 SOG last year which is just under 2 per game.

Schultz in the AHL this year has 73 SOG in 26 games which is a 2.80 SOG/Game average.

His shooting % is 19.17 (not sure if that includes tonight's game or not)

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

You say he will shoot 10% or better right?
I'll take 7% with an occasional flirtation over 8% maybe.

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Old
12-16-2012, 09:02 PM
  #542
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What this kid is doing is absolutely phenomenal at this point, but I agree that he probably won't shoot 10+% more than a couple times in his NHL career.

I'm never sure how to figure out AHL level of play correlates to NHL, I find it easier to scout junior prospects, maybe just due to more exposure. Something that comes to mind for me is Shattenkirk's 0 AHL points and thoroughly average defensive play suddenly turning into an impact player and top 4 player in the NHL. I'm fairly confident Schultz is going to be an offensive force in the NHL, especially considering who he'll be playing with, but I don't really think it makes sense to try to project point totals based on his AHL scoring rate and shooting %. I do think in Edmonton that he'll have 50+ potential though.

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12-16-2012, 09:47 PM
  #543
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I was at the OKC game tonight. Shultz was an absolute dominant force the entire game. His skating, vision, and wrist shot from the point are already at an elite NHL level.

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12-16-2012, 09:50 PM
  #544
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Originally Posted by Kegs View Post
Hard to find ahl games.
no it's not.

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12-16-2012, 09:53 PM
  #545
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Originally Posted by WhiskeyYourTheDevils View Post
I was at the OKC game tonight. Shultz was an absolute dominant force the entire game. His skating, vision, and wrist shot from the point are already at an elite NHL level.
So by elite do you mean top 5 or top 10 level from the back end?

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Old
12-16-2012, 10:25 PM
  #546
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Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
Go big or go home

The point is, every year, about 20 d-men hit 10%+, and only about half of them actually play 40+ games. The other important thing to notice is that the list is pretty much a completely new set of guys every year. He could hit 19, or 2 just as easily.

None of this will take away from him being a fantastic prospect, who any team or fan would love to have playing for them, it's just that Sh% is a coin flip not really worth making any prediction on.
most D are just taking point slapshots and dont jump into the play letting off deadly wrist shots or doing nice dekes

i dont think you can compare schultz to most dmen... def over 10% in the NHL

i hope people who post about him translating to the nhl or about what his shooting% will be actually watch him a lot..

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12-17-2012, 04:06 AM
  #547
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Why are you comparing gardiner's NHL time to the AHL? The AHL is better this year than in the past but it still isn't anywhere near the NHL.

Sure Gardiner shot at 8.9% but he only took 79 SOG. The stats show pretty clearly that players more involved in the offense, ie guys on d who take more shot cannot sustain that type of shooting %.

It's the exception rather than the norm.

If Schultz only takes his best 79 SOG in a season then sure maybe he makes your 10% mark but it would be hurting his team and karma has a way of catching up to any such effort anyways (which is 100% unlikely to occur in real life anyways)

Below is the shooting % of all Dmen who shot more than 160 SOG last year which is just under 2 per game.

Schultz in the AHL this year has 73 SOG in 26 games which is a 2.80 SOG/Game average.

His shooting % is 19.17 (not sure if that includes tonight's game or not)

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

You say he will shoot 10% or better right?
I'll take 7% with an occasional flirtation over 8% maybe.
Gardiner has a similar amount of shots this year and his % while better hasn't been through the roof. It's not as if he shot 2% last year and 14% this year or something. The point is that while you'd expect a guys shooting % to be higher at the AHL level, it's not like a whole bunch of guys are doing what Schultz is.

Currently the AHL's leading D scorers goal totals look like this:

Schultz 14
Brennan 9
Gardiner 9
8
7
7
7
then a bunch of guys with 6 goals.

That is a very sizable lead on the competition and shows that he can really fill the net. Tonight on the Barons broadcast the Barons announcer said that he's NEVER seen a defenseman live that can get his shot through like Schultz can. Now I don't know how many years he's been watching games live and if they include NHL games, but that was a pretty big compliment.

Lastly thanks for picking a number or a couple of numbers, I personally think that he'll shoot a little better, but 7-8% is far from bad for a D.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiskeyYourTheDevils View Post
I was at the OKC game tonight. Shultz was an absolute dominant force the entire game. His skating, vision, and wrist shot from the point are already at an elite NHL level.
Thanks for chiming in.

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Old
12-17-2012, 04:22 AM
  #548
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post

You say he will shoot 10% or better right?
I'll take 7% with an occasional flirtation over 8% maybe.
If he shoots 7% or 8% consistently on a couple hundred shots (ie 15 goals a year), he'll be fantastic and I'll be ecstatic. I think your estimate is extremely fair.

Based on the historical graph you added and knowing the substantial difference in the defense and goaltending he will face (playing with essentially the same forward set), I think 10% is asking a bit much.

Also, those of you using the 19% as your basis, that's on an awfully small sample size. If he's still shooting 19% at the end of the year, should we get that far, that changes things a bit.

As an Oiler fan, I pray I'm wrong and he shoots 16%, along with 80 assists every year. :-)

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12-17-2012, 04:40 AM
  #549
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Originally Posted by WhiskeyYourTheDevils View Post
I was at the OKC game tonight. Shultz was an absolute dominant force the entire game. His skating, vision, and wrist shot from the point are already at an elite NHL level.
That's not an "elite" talent" when there's no strong slap shot to go with it.

The fact that he relies on the wrist shot so much masks an underlying deficiency - Schultz's slap shot is along the lines of your average NHL defensive defenseman. Ladislav Smid, Luke Schenn, etc. It's average (if that) for an NHL player. Sure his wrist shot is nice, but how many NHL defenseman pot 10+ goals a year with a wrist shot (last one I can remember is Tom Gilbert in his rookie season)?

Goalies in the NHL aren't going to let in wrist shots from the point to the tune of 15-20 goals a season, no matter how hard they're shot. They're just too damn good.
Schultz's advantage is that these shots aren't necessarily coming from the point - he's skating down to the faceoff dots to unleash them.

Once NHL opposition realizes they don't have to fear him at the point, they're just going to work to neutralize his passing and ability to get to his "prime" scoring areas in the circles.

I have faith in his passing ability. He'll put up points regardless. For those doubting his point-scoring ability - consider that he's joining the top NHL PP unit from a season before - a unit that had NO Dman even close to his calibre to anchor the PP. It's a scary thought.

I project 35-45 points his first year - but there's no reason why if things go well he can't put up 50+


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12-17-2012, 06:47 AM
  #550
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That's not an "elite" talent" when there's no strong slap shot to go with it.

The fact that he relies on the wrist shot so much masks an underlying deficiency - Schultz's slap shot is along the lines of your average NHL defensive defenseman. Ladislav Smid, Luke Schenn, etc. It's average (if that) for an NHL player. Sure his wrist shot is nice, but how many NHL defenseman pot 10+ goals a year with a wrist shot (last one I can remember is Tom Gilbert in his rookie season)?

Goalies in the NHL aren't going to let in wrist shots from the point to the tune of 15-20 goals a season, no matter how hard they're shot. They're just too damn good.
Schultz's advantage is that these shots aren't necessarily coming from the point - he's skating down to the faceoff dots to unleash them.

Once NHL opposition realizes they don't have to fear him at the point, they're just going to work to neutralize his passing and ability to get to his "prime" scoring areas in the circles.

I have faith in his passing ability. He'll put up points regardless. For those doubting his point-scoring ability - consider that he's joining the top NHL PP unit from a season before - a unit that had NO Dman even close to his calibre to anchor the PP. It's a scary thought.

I project 35-45 points his first year - but there's no reason why if things go well he can't put up 50+
Mike Green put up some pretty great numbers and his wrist shot is better than his slap shot. Schultz ability to think the game at a high level, sneak down low and the fact that he has arguably the best PP quarterback in the league on the half wall I am thinking he will not only put up points but will probably be good for 15-20 goals a year which would put him in the discussion with the league leaders in the category. His accuracy with it is very important, the players with Howitzers usually make the players who are in front trying to screen the goalie a little more timid, a strong net front presence will help a great deal in padding his totals, when the goalie can't see a puck coming how fast it is coming means a great deal less. Players who shoot the puck at the 100+ MPHR range like Weber and Chara are nowhere near as consistent as Schultz is at getting pucks on net, while the Chara/Weber's of the world are more capable of beating a goalie clean, Schultz can put a higher volume of shots on the net, and he is on a better powerplay with more threats to score than either of those two teams boast making it a little easier to sneak into positions that may not be afforded to a Chara or a Weber.

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