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Philadelphia Phillies (MLB): The "Ruf"fled Offseason Thread

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Old
12-15-2012, 12:08 PM
  #801
CootaRoo
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
I like the John Lannan move.
His most representative season moving forward was 2011 (had a .301 BABIP) and he put up a decent enough stat line: 3.7 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, but I am concerned about how he'll fair in our park with such poor peripherals (career 1.39 K:BB ratio) so when his HR:9 starts to creep up above 1 (currently a career .9) which it inevitably in Philly then his lack of control and mediocre strikeout ability is going to bloat his ERA.

That being said, for 2.5M for 1 season, I'm more than fine penciling him as the #5 behind KK... particularly when Cloyd was our only other legitimate option.

Personally, while I don't agree with every move Ruben has made (Bill James agrees with me that Frandsen would have likely put in a better WAR next season than Young, btw) I do have to say that I am very happy with his approach to the offseason. No bloated, impending albatross contracts, no mass exodus of top prospects (though I did love Bonilla, and May was a top 50 guy last year), etc... just a bunch of patched holes with cheap stop-gaps. Is he... dare I say... learning? Or did the top brass come down and force his hand to adapt?

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12-15-2012, 12:26 PM
  #802
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utley is happy, he won't be getting drilled by him anymore

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12-15-2012, 12:27 PM
  #803
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so now we got a new RHP and LHP, who else should we get that's out there or make a trade? I hope lannaon and bastardo can hold the fort during the entire year as the 2 LHP's or hope dekeman can be consistent.

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12-15-2012, 12:38 PM
  #804
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Another LHP for the bullpen would be great but it's not necessary IMO. I would still like a corner outfielder but maybe they're thinking Brown/Mayberry can fill in at right and Ruf/Nix in left.

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12-15-2012, 12:46 PM
  #805
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Originally Posted by FlyersFan61290 View Post
Another LHP for the bullpen would be great but it's not necessary IMO. I would still like a corner outfielder but maybe they're thinking Brown/Mayberry can fill in at right and Ruf/Nix in left.
Well if Kendrick is our 5th pitcher this year, Lannan can replace him for a long relief pitcher.

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12-15-2012, 01:33 PM
  #806
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Sounds like the Mets are trading Dickey to the AL. I'm glad he'll be out of this division and the NL.

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12-15-2012, 01:34 PM
  #807
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Re Mike Adams: Stark said it was 2 years for $12M guaranteed with a 3rd year vested. I really like it - he is an established, very consistent (by stochastic bullpen standards) back of the bullpen guy and while the injury is concerning (apparently it causes numbness in your shoulder/neck and a weak grip) at least it isn't as bad as an elbow issue or something similar.
Very solid signing in my estimation.

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12-15-2012, 01:41 PM
  #808
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Still hoping for another outfielder. Might as well bring in Michael Bourne so we can really solidify our theory of singling teams to death.

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12-15-2012, 01:54 PM
  #809
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Originally Posted by SolidSnakeUS View Post
Well if Kendrick is our 5th pitcher this year, Lannan can replace him for a long relief pitcher.
If Kendrick is 5th then who's 4th?

1. Hamels
2. Halladay
3. Lee
4.
5.

With Worley gone the 4, 5 spots are open unless i missed someone. That means two of Lannan, Kendrick and Cloyd need to fill those spots. I just assumed Lannan would be the 5th starter behind Kendrick.

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12-15-2012, 02:37 PM
  #810
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The only thing I really like about the Lannon move is that it seems to be a vote of confidence for Pettibone, Ethan Martin and/or Adam Morgan. I really doubt the team sees Cloyd as a long term member of their rotation, or Lannon for that matter. They must feel like a real prospect will be ready to hold down a major league spot soon.

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12-15-2012, 03:31 PM
  #811
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zarley zelepukin View Post
The only thing I really like about the Lannon move is that it seems to be a vote of confidence for Pettibone, Ethan Martin and/or Adam Morgan. I really doubt the team sees Cloyd as a long term member of their rotation, or Lannon for that matter. They must feel like a real prospect will be ready to hold down a major league spot soon.
A 1 year deal is perfect. A multi-year contract on a 4/5 starter would have been a dumb move. At least one of these kids will be ready to step in next year if not sooner. Cloyd should be fine as a long-reliever/spot starter.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyersFan61290 View Post
If Kendrick is 5th then who's 4th?

1. Hamels
2. Halladay
3. Lee
4.
5.

With Worley gone the 4, 5 spots are open unless i missed someone. That means two of Lannan, Kendrick and Cloyd need to fill those spots. I just assumed Lannan would be the 5th starter behind Kendrick.
Lannan and Kendrick are your 4/5 starters. Lannan probably 5th to have a L-R-L-R-L rotation.

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Originally Posted by SolidSnakeUS View Post
Well if Kendrick is our 5th pitcher this year, Lannan can replace him for a long relief pitcher.
No Lannan is a starter. Has never pitched out of the pen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyersFan61290 View Post
Another LHP for the bullpen would be great but it's not necessary IMO. I would still like a corner outfielder but maybe they're thinking Brown/Mayberry can fill in at right and Ruf/Nix in left.
Signing one late inning veteran was enough. You could make an argument that they didn't even need to sign any. They don't have a lot of proven guys, but they do have an abundance of capable bullpen pieces. I'm optimistic about the pen.

RHP:
Papelbon
Adams
Aumont
DeFratus
Schwimer
Stutes
Rosenberg (possible long man)
Cloyd (possible long man)

LHP:
Bastardo
Horst
Diekman
Valdez
Savery
Robles

In this case quantity might be better than quality. There's just too many good arms on that list for 5 guys to not step up. Bastardo's stuff is too good for him to have another year like last year. That right there is worth a couple wins. I'm optimistic about the pen.

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Old
12-15-2012, 03:43 PM
  #812
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Originally Posted by RussianRocket10 View Post
Sounds like the Mets are trading Dickey to the AL. I'm glad he'll be out of this division and the NL.
I heard for D'Arnaud and Gose. I really like Toronto's management.

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12-15-2012, 03:54 PM
  #813
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
I heard for D'Arnaud and Gose. I really like Toronto's management.
If that's what they get I also like that deal for the Mets. Talk about selling high. Dickey would probably be gone in a year anyway and they could pull in the best catching prospect in baseball and a good OF prospect too. Both guys were Phillies draft picks.

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12-15-2012, 04:37 PM
  #814
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
I like the John Lannan move. As far as Ultey is concerned, they are professionals. I doubt there would be any bad blood remaining.
I agree with you here. Lannan as a 4 or 5 is fine with me and I really like Adams as our set up guy. Still need the bat to complete the puzzle and that is key.

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Old
12-15-2012, 06:18 PM
  #815
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Originally Posted by zarley zelepukin View Post
If that's what they get I also like that deal for the Mets. Talk about selling high. Dickey would probably be gone in a year anyway and they could pull in the best catching prospect in baseball and a good OF prospect too. Both guys were Phillies draft picks.
This I agree with. If it's d'Arnaud and Gose for Dickey, the Mets look like geniuses. You should be able to get a lot better asset for prospects of that caliber than a 37-year old knuckleballer. Either of the Cliff Lee trades possessed worse prospects.

Yes, Dickey has been good for the last 3 years, but sooner or later time will catch up with him as it did Wakefield.

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12-15-2012, 06:52 PM
  #816
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Wow I didn't realize Dickey was that old. I think it's an alright trade. After that trade with the Marlins, the Blue Jays are certainly in "win now" mode and getting Dickey will help that. I'm not really too familiar with baseball prospects at all so I don't know how good these prospects are projected to be but you're going to pay a pretty penny for a guy coming off a Cy Young winning season.

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Old
12-16-2012, 05:46 PM
  #817
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Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
but sooner or later time will catch up with him as it did Wakefield.
At age 43 after 18 years in the majors - Dickey is 37 with 10.

If Toronto has a reliable 1/2 at considerably under market value (5M next year and he wanted 2/13M per extension) then you can't help but love it from their perspective.

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12-17-2012, 12:35 AM
  #818
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At age 43 after 18 years in the majors - Dickey is 37 with 10.

If Toronto has a reliable 1/2 at considerably under market value (5M next year and he wanted 2/13M per extension) then you can't help but love it from their perspective.
I am not a Dickey believer I guess. I expect at least a modest regression this season, particularly moving to the AL East. Citi Bank is definitely a friendly place than Rogre Center.

I also see d'Armaud as a potential middle of the order contributor who is probably ready to play in the big leagues this season.

This is every bit what we gave up for Roy Halladay and I definitely don't view Dickey in the same way as I viewed Halladay, particularly considering you were talking about a decade of greatness versus 2 and a half seasons and a significant different in age.

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12-17-2012, 12:55 AM
  #819
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Really like the moves that RAJ has made so far. I think Mike Adams should be good, and Lannan's numbers against teams not named the Phillies are actually pretty decent as well.

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12-17-2012, 11:35 AM
  #820
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This is every bit what we gave up for Roy Halladayand I definitely don't view Dickey in the same way as I viewed Halladayand
Idk... at the time of the deal Drabek was penciled in as an ace and Taylor was a can't miss all-star - on top of D'Arnaud. I do agree that there isn't much comparison between Halladay and Dickey, either. One was the undisputed most dominant pitcher in baseball, the other is a parlor trick #1/2 that happened to win the Cy Young last year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
a significant different in age.
Devils advocate: I think you could make the argument that there is a very real chance that Dickey, at 37 (being a knuckle-baller), will probably hang around relevancy longer post-trade than Halladay after being moved at 33. Especially since Halladay had 2 extra ML seasons of wear and tear on him at the time of his trade than Dickey now, despite the age difference.

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12-17-2012, 12:42 PM
  #821
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Idk... at the time of the deal Drabek was penciled in as an ace and Taylor was a can't miss all-star - on top of D'Arnaud. I do agree that there isn't much comparison between Halladay and Dickey, either. One was the undisputed most dominant pitcher in baseball, the other is a parlor trick #1/2 that happened to win the Cy Young last year.
Its close. The deal isn't finalized, but D'Arnaud now is just about major league ready. He's a lot less risky than when we traded him to Toronto. Syndergaard just turned 20 and dominated A ball. Much further away from the bigs than Drabek was, but his upside is a lot higher. Michael Taylor wasn't a "can't miss" all-star. He was a very good hitter at the time, but there were questions about his ability to hit big league stuff. Toronto obviously didn't think that highly of him as they quickly flipped him to Oakland.

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12-17-2012, 02:09 PM
  #822
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Michael Taylor wasn't a "can't miss" all-star. He was a very good hitter at the time, but there were questions about his ability to hit big league stuff. Toronto obviously didn't think that highly of him as they quickly flipped him to Oakland.
Eh, maybe it was the Phillies shades of the forums I inhabit, but I read countless debates about whether Brown or Taylor was the better prospect - with both being all-stars, of course.

I mean, hindsight is 20/20, but I'm trying to put myself back in the mindset of when that Halladay trade went through and I just can't help but remember how highly I regarded the prospects leaving the org (particuliarly Drabek).

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12-17-2012, 02:15 PM
  #823
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the deal is done. Dickey gets a 2 year/25 million dollar extension with Toronto.
Hard to believe Alderson squeezed 2 top prospects for Dickey when many thought he couldnt.
Thole and Buck both suck so that is a wash. Guess there is a PTBN prospect on both sides included in the deal as well.

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12-17-2012, 04:57 PM
  #824
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Eh, maybe it was the Phillies shades of the forums I inhabit, but I read countless debates about whether Brown or Taylor was the better prospect - with both being all-stars, of course.

I mean, hindsight is 20/20, but I'm trying to put myself back in the mindset of when that Halladay trade went through and I just can't help but remember how highly I regarded the prospects leaving the org (particuliarly Drabek).
Yeah, I had high hopes for Taylor as well, but I always had doubts about his game at the highest level. He was a big recruit coming out of HS, went to Stanford and under performed, got drafted and pretty much dominated, and then he got to AAA and fell on his face.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneFullHolmgren View Post
the deal is done. Dickey gets a 2 year/25 million dollar extension with Toronto.
Hard to believe Alderson squeezed 2 top prospects for Dickey when many thought he couldnt.
Thole and Buck both suck so that is a wash. Guess there is a PTBN prospect on both sides included in the deal as well.
Thole was a package deal with Dickey- he's his personal catcher lol. I'm just glad the Mets didn't get Gose too. That would have been awful.

Baseball America released the Phillies top 10 prospects today: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...3/2614445.html

Quote:
1. Jesse Biddle, lhp
2. Roman Quinn, ss
3. Tommy Joseph, c
4. Jon Pettibone, rhp
5. Adam Morgan, lhp
6. Ethan Martin, rhp
7. Cody Asche, 3b
8. Maikel Franco, 3b
9. Darin Ruf, 1b/of
10. Carlos Tocci, of

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12-17-2012, 05:14 PM
  #825
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I want to say Joseph and Pettibone are way too high, but, sadly, there really isn't anyone else that hands down deserves those spots.

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