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The Luongo Thread - "Make it stop, make it stop!"

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Old
12-15-2012, 03:19 PM
  #351
opendoor
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
Personally, I do not see the cap falling this significantly. 65m perhaps but not 58-60m
That's pretty much all been decided already. With the 50/50 split that both sides have already accepted, the cap will be about $60M with $3.3B in revenues.

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12-15-2012, 03:20 PM
  #352
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You can be an excellent posession player and still be horrible defensively. Kadri well would could be in that category. Booth certainly is.
Exactly. Corsi etc. are possession stats... not defensive stats like some have been using them.

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12-15-2012, 05:48 PM
  #353
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You can be an excellent posession player and still be horrible defensively. Kadri well would could be in that category. Booth certainly is.
I wasn't suggesting Kadris possession stats are directly tied to defensive ability, but it's often a good sign. Meaning, while he was on the ice at EV - more shots were directed towards the opponents net vs. shots directed towards his own net under the same criteria. When is general, his team was generally always outshot. He had moderate o-zone starts (51%), so that doesn't inflate his corsi. Unfortunately, we're working with small sample sizes.

His defensive #'s aren't bad either last season. Played 21 NHL games, was only on ice for 8 goals against and 11 goals for. Per ice time relative to team, that was the best for forwards. Very few forwards had a + goal differential on the Leafs team last yr - he was one of few.

If he was on a team that could protect his ice time (like Vancouver), I don't think he's sent down last season. He still has work to do on the defensive side, but he's in this category with virtually every other rookie NHL forward.

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12-15-2012, 06:33 PM
  #354
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
Aye, but look at the cap space available there. Burrows is an extra 2m and I doubt Edler signs for more than 5m, especially in a 60m cap world. Higgins and Lapierre are not liable to receive raises for that very reason.

Personally, I do not see the cap falling this significantly. 65m perhaps but not 58-60m
That's some serious wishful thinking.

I doubt the lowered cap will have much of an effect on what Edler's asking. It might affect what the Canucks offer, but there will be a team out there willing to pay Edler what he wants, lowered cap or not.

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12-15-2012, 09:13 PM
  #355
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
That's pretty much all been decided already. With the 50/50 split that both sides have already accepted, the cap will be about $60M with $3.3B in revenues.
Actually, it hasn't. The league brought up a specific amount once, only to subsequently back off it in future negotiation. I suspect they are hoping to use it as a ploy against the PA in the sense of "we'll keep it around x if you accept y."

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Originally Posted by 14s incisor View Post
That's some serious wishful thinking.

I doubt the lowered cap will have much of an effect on what Edler's asking. It might affect what the Canucks offer, but there will be a team out there willing to pay Edler what he wants, lowered cap or not.
Those other teams will have similar difficulties should the cap fall that low. Detroit has the most pressing need for a defenseman, yet they already have a cap hit of $61m and still have to resign Filppula and Howard. They are not going to clear more than six million, if that, and we can match any offer below.

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12-15-2012, 09:55 PM
  #356
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Originally Posted by 14s incisor View Post
That's some serious wishful thinking.

I doubt the lowered cap will have much of an effect on what Edler's asking. It might affect what the Canucks offer, but there will be a team out there willing to pay Edler what he wants, lowered cap or not.
Our best defensemen are making $4.6M. I would be hard pressed to give Edler more than that with a lowered cap.

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12-15-2012, 10:01 PM
  #357
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Our best defensemen are making $4.6M. I would be hard pressed to give Edler more than that with a lowered cap.
go kiss your gf, thought it was you anniversary.

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Old
12-15-2012, 10:04 PM
  #358
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Our best defensemen are making $4.6M. I would be hard pressed to give Edler more than that with a lowered cap.
Who's better in your opinion, Garrison or Edler?

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12-15-2012, 10:05 PM
  #359
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Our best defensemen are making $4.6M. I would be hard pressed to give Edler more than that with a lowered cap.
I just don't see Edler getting an Ehrhoff length contract for 4/5 either though. A compromise has to be made, and I'd be very surprised if we get him cheaper then 5. I am hopeful, but even with Bieksa, Hamhuis and Garrison making 4.6 or less, I don't think that restricts Edler when he could easily, easily, make 6 open market.

I could be wrong and he signs 4.6 for 10 years, but the current CBA arrangements being made by both sides seem intent on negating this.

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12-15-2012, 10:34 PM
  #360
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I predict 42 over 8 years at 5.25 per, if he re-signs with us. Otherwise something like 6 years at 5.75 per in UFA.

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12-16-2012, 12:09 AM
  #361
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I predict 42 over 8 years at 5.25 per, if he re-signs with us. Otherwise something like 6 years at 5.75 per in UFA.
6 years from another team? But that's a hill the NHL will die on...

What's your five year contract prediction?

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12-16-2012, 12:58 AM
  #362
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Originally Posted by cooker24 View Post
6 years from another team? But that's a hill the NHL will die on...

What's your five year contract prediction?
5 by 33 million from UFA and another team. 5 by 27.5 if cap is lowered close to 60 million.

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Old
12-16-2012, 11:22 AM
  #363
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
Aye, but look at the cap space available there. Burrows is an extra 2m and I doubt Edler signs for more than 5m, especially in a 60m cap world. Higgins and Lapierre are not liable to receive raises for that very reason.

Personally, I do not see the cap falling this significantly. 65m perhaps but not 58-60m
I hope the cap doesnt fall to 60M because even with not resigning Raymond, and Manny and trading Ballard and Luongo and filling their spots with ELCs we can't afford to resign Edler to something above 5.25M

65 would be manageable though

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Old
12-16-2012, 12:05 PM
  #364
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I thought the term was something like 7 years if your re-signing, or 5 years to a different team.

Edler at 5.25 mil for 7 years I could live with.

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Old
12-16-2012, 12:27 PM
  #365
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I thought the term was something like 7 years if your re-signing, or 5 years to a different team.

Edler at 5.25 mil for 7 years I could live with.
They are still fighting over it, thats what the owners want, the players are asking for 8 yrs across the board.

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Old
12-16-2012, 12:50 PM
  #366
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We just gave Schneider slightly more then Edler, based on a higher cap at the time, and I don't think it's out of the question to give Edler slightly more then Luongo money if we can get the term. 7 years as a resign or 8 if the players get a say in it.

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12-16-2012, 01:33 PM
  #367
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
go kiss your gf, thought it was you anniversary.
I did, just wanted to check in for a bit.

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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Who's better in your opinion, Garrison or Edler?
I need to see how Garrison fits in with our system so it's tough to say. But based on what we saw last season I would say it's very close. Garrison is superior defensively, while Edler has chemistry with our forwards. Garrison though does have that booming shot and could have success manning the point on our PP.

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Originally Posted by Cogburn View Post
I just don't see Edler getting an Ehrhoff length contract for 4/5 either though. A compromise has to be made, and I'd be very surprised if we get him cheaper then 5. I am hopeful, but even with Bieksa, Hamhuis and Garrison making 4.6 or less, I don't think that restricts Edler when he could easily, easily, make 6 open market.

I could be wrong and he signs 4.6 for 10 years, but the current CBA arrangements being made by both sides seem intent on negating this.
I could live with Edler at $5M, but if he's trying to hold out for closer to $6M then I look to move him. I perhaps push Toronto harder for Jake Gardiner, and then look to subsequently move Edler to another team (Philly?) for a young forward who could play in our top 6.

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Old
12-16-2012, 09:38 PM
  #368
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
I could live with Edler at $5M, but if he's trying to hold out for closer to $6M then I look to move him. I perhaps push Toronto harder for Jake Gardiner, and then look to subsequently move Edler to another team (Philly?) for a young forward who could play in our top 6.
Someone said they'd do Kessel for Schneider and Edler Kessel+Gardiner for Luongo+Edler+ or Schneider+Edler and I'd look forward to that...good luck getting that from Leafs fans though.

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12-16-2012, 09:49 PM
  #369
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
That's pretty much all been decided already. With the 50/50 split that both sides have already accepted, the cap will be about $60M with $3.3B in revenues.
Hasn't the league already concede a gradual move to 50%?

So wouldn't the percentage be 55% dropping by 2% every year (which should be less than what's gained through revenue growth) until it hits 50%?

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12-16-2012, 10:16 PM
  #370
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
Actually, it hasn't. The league brought up a specific amount once, only to subsequently back off it in future negotiation. I suspect they are hoping to use it as a ploy against the PA in the sense of "we'll keep it around x if you accept y."
Unless they completely change how they calculate the cap, it'll have to drop roughly as much as the players' share does.

Right now the NHLPA is pushing for a higher cap because they're still trying to get escrow limits, but I see that as a non-starter for the NHL. Maybe they'll push it up a bit, but a $65M cap would likely lead to massive escrow payments from the players.

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12-16-2012, 10:18 PM
  #371
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Hasn't the league already concede a gradual move to 50%?

So wouldn't the percentage be 55% dropping by 2% every year (which should be less than what's gained through revenue growth) until it hits 50%?
No, the plan both sides have been talking about would see an immediate drop to 50/50 with about $300M in "make whole" money for the players that wouldn't be counted against the cap or players' share. A 50/50 split given current revenue levels means a cap in the $59-62M range assuming the ceiling is calculated similarly to how it is now and how much the next CBA's benefits are worth. The NHL proposed a 1 year transition with a $70M cap but in 13-14 it'd drop down to wherever 50% of HRR puts it.

That's all negotiable, but the cap level doesn't change the amount of money the players get at all, so I expect things like contract rights or make whole money are going to take precedence over fighting over how the cap is calculated.

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12-17-2012, 02:00 AM
  #372
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Re; the thread title...

Oh, they made it stop, all right.

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12-17-2012, 06:42 AM
  #373
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
I could live with Edler at $5M, but if he's trying to hold out for closer to $6M then I look to move him. I perhaps push Toronto harder for Jake Gardiner, and then look to subsequently move Edler to another team (Philly?) for a young forward who could play in our top 6.
We would only get Gardiner out of Toronto if Schneider were who we parted with. Not that I have any qualms with that scenario; quite the contrary, I prefer it. However, I cannot see them giving up Gardiner for Lu.

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12-17-2012, 11:44 AM
  #374
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
We would only get Gardiner out of Toronto if Schneider were who we parted with. Not that I have any qualms with that scenario; quite the contrary, I prefer it. However, I cannot see them giving up Gardiner for Lu.
So the Leafs get the Canucks' starting goalie, and the Canucks get Ian White 2.0...

Better hope the Canucks get a starting goalie back for Luongo, if this happens.

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12-17-2012, 05:25 PM
  #375
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Originally Posted by 14s incisor View Post
So the Leafs get the Canucks' starting goalie, and the Canucks get Ian White 2.0...

Better hope the Canucks get a starting goalie back for Luongo, if this happens.
It'd be Gardiner plus and equating him to Ian White is a severe underrating. Evidently, we evaluate Luongo differently.

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