That's not an "elite" talent" when there's no strong slap shot to go with it.
The fact that he relies on the wrist shot so much masks an underlying deficiency - Schultz's slap shot is along the lines of your average NHL defensive defenseman. Ladislav Smid, Luke Schenn, etc. It's average (if that) for an NHL player. Sure his wrist shot is nice, but how many NHL defenseman pot 10+ goals a year with a wrist shot (last one I can remember is Tom Gilbert in his rookie season)?
Goalies in the NHL aren't going to let in wrist shots from the point to the tune of 15-20 goals a season, no matter how hard they're shot. They're just too damn good.
Schultz's advantage is that these shots aren't necessarily coming from the point - he's skating down to the faceoff dots to unleash them.
Once NHL opposition realizes they don't have to fear him at the point, they're just going to work to neutralize his passing and ability to get to his "prime" scoring areas in the circles.
I have faith in his passing ability. He'll put up points regardless. For those doubting his point-scoring ability - consider that he's joining the top NHL PP unit from a season before - a unit that had NO Dman even close to his calibre to anchor the PP. It's a scary thought.
I project 35-45 points his first year - but there's no reason why if things go well he can't put up 50+
His wrist shot is more dangerous than most guy's slap shot. The goal he scored last night was zipped in from the blue line right inside the far post after receiving a (bad) pass from Hall on his backhand. He can just put it exactly where he wants it. He'll score a lot of goals (and get a lot of assists from this ability) at the NHL level.
Mike Green and Erik Karlsson both primarily rely on their wrist shots and it seems to work out ok for them. Same with Rafalski - and I'm pretty sure my wrist shot is harder than his. A quick snap from the blue line can be incredibly dangerous.
So by elite do you mean top 5 or top 10 level from the back end?
I don't think I've ever seen anyone with a wrist shot from the point like his. His skating was very impressive. There was one play where he had to recover while zucker and granlund broke in shorthanded and he made it look easy. All this considering he looks like he's grown in the last 2 years - he's all of 6'2. His passing game is excellent. I think he could be a top 10 offensive dman coming into the league next year. And with the chemistry he's already shown with Eberle, I think 12+ goals 50+ points is within reach. He's got such a unique ability at the point, you can tell he's really aiming his wrist shots from there, trying to score, not just trying to get pucks through. One of the few guys I've seen do that on a consistent basis.
He's got a lot of Karlsson in his game, but his skating and vision aren't at the same level. But he is a good amount bigger. He should be a pretty consistent 15g+ 55p+ defenseman with a solid 2 way game once he hits his prime.
I was at the OKC game tonight. Schultz was an absolute dominant force the entire game. His skating, vision, and wrist shot from the point are already at an elite NHL level.
So was I, and I echo those comments. He needs some work defensively (teachable things), but his talent and offensive ability was off-the-charts good. It doesn't surprise me one bit that's lighting up the scoresheet. What he can do with the puck, and how confidently he does it, was amazing.
He's definitely one of the very best NHL prospects. I know I'd consider him for #1.
Once again you do realize that only 1 Dman shot over 10% in the NHL last year right?
All players regress to the norm, he is a great prospect and is off to a great start in the AHL but man you are just feeding an unrealistic hype machine here and it's not supported by actual NHL facts, in fact the hype ignores the reality of the NHL.
What norm are you talking about here? This notion of "regression to the norm" is one of the most badly abused concepts on these boards. In the context you use it it has almost no meaning.
If what you are trying to say is that 10% would be exceptional for an NHl player, then yes I agree. However, the reality is that Schultz has demonstrated exceptional qualities that make the probabilty of him being a statistical outlier rather significant.
What norm are you talking about here? This notion of "regression to the norm" is one of the most badly abused concepts on these boards. In the context you use it it has almost no meaning.
If what you are trying to say is that 10% would be exceptional for an NHl player, then yes I agree. However, the reality is that Schultz has demonstrated exceptional qualities that make the probabilty of him being a statistical outlier rather significant.
26 games is not enough context. There is alot of variance that can happen in 26 games compared to a whole season. If you don't understand the concept of regressing to the norm then look it up.
Over 80 games, over several seasons we see what a players norm is.
I would be curious to know what his shooting % was like in the last 2 years in a weaker league.
I looked it up 16 goals on 110 shots is 14.54 (37 games)
The season before is 18 goals on 108 shots which is 16.666 (43 games)
In his rookie year in the WCHA it was 6 goals on 61 shots good for 9.83
Compared to Smith from Detroit at the same school his shooting % is better but it's still a long way to translate that into the NHL.
Last edited by Hardyvan123: 12-17-2012 at 10:26 PM.
26 games is not enough context. There is alot of variance that can happen in 26 games compared to a whole season. If you don't understand the concept of regressing to the norm then look it up.
Over 80 games, over several seasons we see what a players norm is.
I would be curious to know what his shooting % was like in the last 2 years in a weaker league.
I looked it up 16 goals on 110 shots is 14.54 (37 games)
The season before is 18 goals on 108 shots which is 16.666 (43 games)
In his rookie year in the WCHA it was 6 goals on 61 shots good for 9.83
Compared to Smith from Detroit at the same school his shooting % is better but it's still a long way to translate that into the NHL.
Have you even seen him play?
Or do you just extrapolate a players worth and predict his future from box scores?
This is a rookie dman who leads the league in points. Tied with Jordan Eberle.
Who gives a flying **** about his shooting %?
A bigger bunch of nonsense is hard to find. People were saying the same garbage about Eberle after last year. His shooting percentage is somewhere around 27% right now.
His wrist shot is more dangerous than most guy's slap shot. The goal he scored last night was zipped in from the blue line right inside the far post after receiving a (bad) pass from Hall on his backhand. He can just put it exactly where he wants it. He'll score a lot of goals (and get a lot of assists from this ability) at the NHL level.
Mike Green and Erik Karlsson both primarily rely on their wrist shots and it seems to work out ok for them. Same with Rafalski - and I'm pretty sure my wrist shot is harder than his. A quick snap from the blue line can be incredibly dangerous.
this. you dont need a cannon of a slap shot to score goals. nieds never had a bomb of a shot. but he was great at placing his shot. and obviously his ridiculous IQ and fluid skating were assets.
26 games is not enough context. There is alot of variance that can happen in 26 games compared to a whole season. If you don't understand the concept of regressing to the norm then look it up.
Over 80 games, over several seasons we see what a players norm is.
I would be curious to know what his shooting % was like in the last 2 years in a weaker league.
I looked it up 16 goals on 110 shots is 14.54 (37 games)
The season before is 18 goals on 108 shots which is 16.666 (43 games)
In his rookie year in the WCHA it was 6 goals on 61 shots good for 9.83
Compared to Smith from Detroit at the same school his shooting % is better but it's still a long way to translate that into the NHL.
Well he's playing with better players now, some players find that the game is easier when you play with better players who can think the game at a quicker pace.
Also his NCAA shooting % is less relevant than his AHL shooting % as small of a sample size as there is simply because the AHL is a lot closer to the NHL than the NCAA. That said his NCAA shooting % shows that he shot a high % then too which shows that he is a very effective defenseman in terms of scoring goals.
Here's some food for thought, over his last 3 seasons he has scored 48 goals in 104 games, not bad for a defenseman.
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26 games is not enough context. There is alot of variance that can happen in 26 games compared to a whole season. If you don't understand the concept of regressing to the norm then look it up.
Over 80 games, over several seasons we see what a players norm is.
It seems like you don't understand the concept.
Regression to the norm can "prove" he could be a 20% shooter in the NHL too.
Or do you just extrapolate a players worth and predict his future from box scores?
This is a rookie dman who leads the league in points. Tied with Jordan Eberle.
Who gives a flying **** about his shooting %?
A bigger bunch of nonsense is hard to find. People were saying the same garbage about Eberle after last year. His shooting percentage is somewhere around 27% right now.
IATL, it is funny to see the bitter Canuck fans try to smear Schultz. They think because a guy grew up in Kelowna he should automatically sign in Vancouver. There are good reasons those of us who grew up in BC have left the province.
Ducks fan and long time Schultz admirer, Justin will become a top pairing high scoring defenseman. I've always believed in it. He just has too much tools. At the Oilers, pair him up with a steady defenseman and he will be great.
Most of my disappointment is gone by now and I think he is doing great things. Just look at him where his head is, always up. The oilers will have a lot of fun with him. Sadly for the Ducks, they needed him badly!
IATL, it is funny to see the bitter Canuck fans try to smear Schultz. They think because a guy grew up in Kelowna he should automatically sign in Vancouver. There are good reasons those of us who grew up in BC have left the province.
wow are all your posts like this?
Anyways I see Schultz, outside of Doughty, Pietrangelo and Karlsson in the same league as other young established defensemans. Said I thought he should be the first defenseman taken, ahead of Murray and Rielly if he was avaliable in the draft during that time too. I'm not surprised that there are still doubters but he's proving them wrong.
Anyways I see Schultz, outside of Doughty, Pietrangelo and Karlsson in the same league as other young established defensemans. Said I thought he should be the first defenseman taken, ahead of Murray and Rielly if he was avaliable in the draft during that time too. I'm not surprised that there are still doubters but he's proving them wrong.
Of course he should have. What does he have, 5 years development on those guys?
