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Unlikely Draft Scenario

View Poll Results: If the Wings select #1, what should they do?
Seth Jones 10 23.81%
Nathan MacKinnon 29 69.05%
Other 3 7.14%
Voters: 42. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
12-18-2012, 11:55 AM
  #26
The Zetterberg Era
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FissionFire View Post
You take the franchise center every single time. Unless you are talking a player the caliber of a Lidstrom/Bourque/Potvin you are always far better off with the center. They impact the game far more than any but the most elite of elite defenseman will. Not to mention centers can play immediately and have an impact while even the most polished defenseman will take several years to really become dominant and the Wings are definitely not a team with the luxury of time considering the aging core.

Think of it like this, if you could take any player now to start a team, how high on your list would the first defenseman be? Would you take Karlsson over Crosby? Weber over Stamkos? Pietrangelo over Getzlaf? Suter over Malkin? I'm not sure if I'd take a defenseman over any of the top 10 centers in the NHL and when you are talking about Jones vs. MacKinnon I feel Mac is far more likely to be a top 10 center one day than Jones is to be a Norris-level complete defenseman. Wasn't Hedman rated even higher than Jones is? Larsson? Just goes to show how long it takes to develop a defenseman to that elite level compared to a center who steps in day 1 and does it.
In point of fact I would probably take two of those over the guys you mentioned in that matchup the non-penguins matchups.

I actually do think Jones is a generational talent on the backend. I mean that as in the true generational not the cheap kind or anything like that but a dominant force for 15 years. But like I said I am ridiculously high on him. Really I wouldn't consider it with any recent d-man but him. That is part of why I asked in the first place, I would be very happy with either of the big two. The interesting one would be if the Wings brass really like Barkov and went that way. Holland, Nill and the scouting guys can probably do whatever they want. I know picking the D-man is way more dangerous, but Jones is going to be an absolute stud.

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12-18-2012, 11:58 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by 13 HockeyTown 40 View Post
MacKinnon. He can replace Datsyuk and I feel our biggest weakness is our lack of top 6 center prospects. I certainly wouldn't be angry if they'd pick Jones instead.
Hmm.

Jarnkrok. Maybe Sheahan. Emmerton could still do it (he was supposed to be a 2nd line playmaking center, and he's still only a year older than Nyquist).

Nyquist is slotted as a winger and probably will play a career as a winger, but is a natural center. Tatar too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
We've won cups with average defenses.
We've never won a cup without really good center depth
Which Cups did we win with average defense?

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Old
12-18-2012, 12:01 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by WingedWheel1987 View Post
You take the d-man and trade all of the over 30 assets minus Zetterberg. Zero problems trading Datsyuk for a prospect and a pick. You could completely change the team in one year and the rebuild might only take one season before you are a playoff team again.

The current core isn't good enough so adding MacKinnon won't make them contenders. I do not want to see the Wings turn into Calgary.
If you draft MacKinnon, I don't see the point in a full rebuild. Put him at #2 C and put Z with Dats and I think you'd be a contender. We have enough young talent to keep contending while getting younger, especially if we were to get MacKinnon.

Just thinking about getting a franchise player from the draft excites me. It would make the Wings contenders for another 10+ years. I would do anything to get a top 5 pick haha

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12-18-2012, 12:34 PM
  #29
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Ehhh, I prefer they focus on the defense first. You don't need elite forwards to win a cup anymore.

Also, i am sure you already know this, but I think the defense is really bad.

The foundation should be

1. Defense
2. Forwards
2. Goaltending

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12-18-2012, 12:47 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by WingedWheel1987 View Post
Ehhh, I prefer they focus on the defense first. You don't need elite forwards to win a cup anymore.

Also, i am sure you already know this, but I think the defense is really bad.

The foundation should be

1. Defense
2. Forwards
2. Goaltending
Good point, but we already have a ton of great defensive prospects so I see the priorities changing in the next 3-5 years, but who knows you could very well be correct.

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Old
12-18-2012, 01:24 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
because the NHL has a rookie salary cap.
IMO it doesn't mean a thing in this case. Barkov was drafted by Lokomotiv Yaroslavl at KHL draft and they don't have money to buy him out from Tappara (signed until 2015). They still have enough economic problems to build the team after the airplane incident. 900k + 2.5 million possibility for performance bonuses should be enough.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WingedWheel1987 View Post
Ehhh, I prefer they focus on the defense first. You don't need elite forwards to win a cup anymore.

Also, i am sure you already know this, but I think the defense is really bad.

The foundation should be

1. Defense
2. Forwards
2. Goaltending
Maybe a newsflash for you, but our prospect core isn't weak on defence, even though our NHL defence is.

Biggest needs:

1. Center position

HUGE GAP

2. Defence
3. Wingers
4. Goaltending

Seth Jones is interesting player though. More than McKinnon. I'd like to have the 3rd pick at next summer, so picking Barkov would be pretty easy and pretty much better than normal 3rd pick at entry draft. Those American-born guys will go first because of their market-value. There's not enough balls in other organizations to pick Barkov first. Only Red Wings could do it IMO.


Last edited by Henkka: 12-18-2012 at 01:33 PM.
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Old
12-18-2012, 01:31 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by 13 HockeyTown 40 View Post
Good point, but we already have a ton of great defensive prospects so I see the priorities changing in the next 3-5 years, but who knows you could very well be correct.
I disagree.

Few have ton of good/ok defensive prospects.

Couple of great ones. Smith and Ouellet, wouldn't include Sproul there yet.

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12-18-2012, 01:45 PM
  #33
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I agree they have some great prospects that might be great 2-3 years from now, but I worry that they might not pan out and that would mean Brendan Smith would be the only young home grown d-man, and I don't want to gamble via free agency. We all saw how that turned out.

I think it's more likely 1-2 of the highly regarded forward prospects pan out as opposed to the defensive prospects.

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12-18-2012, 02:29 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FissionFire View Post
You take the franchise center every single time. Unless you are talking a player the caliber of a Lidstrom/Bourque/Potvin you are always far better off with the center. They impact the game far more than any but the most elite of elite defenseman will. Not to mention centers can play immediately and have an impact while even the most polished defenseman will take several years to really become dominant and the Wings are definitely not a team with the luxury of time considering the aging core.

Think of it like this, if you could take any player now to start a team, how high on your list would the first defenseman be? Would you take Karlsson over Crosby? Weber over Stamkos? Pietrangelo over Getzlaf? Suter over Malkin? I'm not sure if I'd take a defenseman over any of the top 10 centers in the NHL and when you are talking about Jones vs. MacKinnon I feel Mac is far more likely to be a top 10 center one day than Jones is to be a Norris-level complete defenseman. Wasn't Hedman rated even higher than Jones is? Larsson? Just goes to show how long it takes to develop a defenseman to that elite level compared to a center who steps in day 1 and does it.
Yeah, I agree with this. Even with guys like Erik Johnson and Victor Hedman you are not getting a guy who is going to have the immediate impact that Stamkos, Crosby, Tavares, Malkin and Toews have at the NHL level. The return is much, much quicker on a forward and as we all know we lack depth in our top 6. We've got solid if unspecatuclar d-men and I think you can fill needs there at a much cheaper cost than you can by trying to acquire top 6 forwards.

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12-18-2012, 03:10 PM
  #35
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I hope we get the 2nd pick to make our choice easier.

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12-18-2012, 03:57 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Henkka View Post
IMO it doesn't mean a thing in this case. Barkov was drafted by Lokomotiv Yaroslavl at KHL draft and they don't have money to buy him out from Tappara (signed until 2015). They still have enough economic problems to build the team after the airplane incident. 900k + 2.5 million possibility for performance bonuses should be enough.
While I don't think KHL is a factor here, the fact that Barkov was drafter by Lokomotiv is pretty irrelevant.

Iirc some other team could get Barkov's rights pretty easily. Maybe by giving money if Lokomotiv needs that.

To stir up the soup: Barkov's father is an assistant coach in KHL, Ak Bars Kazan.

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Originally Posted by sully61 View Post
I hope we get the 2nd pick to make our choice easier.
1st overall goes to Drouin. The what we do?


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12-18-2012, 04:02 PM
  #37
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Easily MacKinnon. Datsyuk and Zetterberg aren't exactly young anymore, and someone has to fill the shoes when they leave. I feel Detroit is in a position to fill in defensive positions much more effectively at the moment, so stock up on talented forwards.

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12-18-2012, 04:19 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by kemisti View Post
While I don't think KHL is a factor here, the fact that Barkov was drafter by Lokomotiv is pretty irrelevant.

Iirc some other team could get Barkov's rights pretty easily. Maybe by giving money if Lokomotiv needs that.

To stir up the soup: Barkov's father is an assistant coach in KHL, Ak Bars Kazan.



1st overall goes to Drouin. The what we do?

Trade Quincey for a 1st that ends up as #3 and draft both. Then trade Sammy and coliacovo for another 1st which ends up as #4 and then get Barkov and then celebrate

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12-18-2012, 04:22 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by sully61 View Post
Trade Quincey for a 1st that ends up as #3 and draft both. Then trade Sammy and coliacovo for another 1st which ends up as #4 and then get Barkov and then celebrate
I wish we could get that much for them but we'd most likely not get close to that.

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12-18-2012, 10:48 PM
  #40
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Here's a quick list of the past few defenseman taken in the top 5 of their draft.....

Adam Larsson (4th, 2011)
Erik Gudbranson (3rd, 2010)
Victor Hedman (2nd, 2009)
Drew Doughty (2nd, 2008)
Zack Bogosian (3rd, 2008)
Alex Pietrangelo (4th, 2008)
Luke Schenn (5th, 2008)
Thomas Hickey (4th, 2007)
Karl Alzner (5th, 2007)
Erik Johnson (1st, 2006)
Jack Johnson (3rd, 2005)

Solid list, but not that great. One of them hasn't even played a game in the NHL yet (Hickey). None of them were really stud players until about 3 years after their draft season, aside from Doughty. Of that list probably only Doughty, Pietrangelo, and maybe Larsson still appear to be top tier #1 D guys or perennial Norris candidates. None of the rest would be worth trading away a franchise center for.

Speaking of that, a glance at centers drafted in the top 5 of those drafts.....

Tyler Seguin (2nd, 2010)
Ryan Johansen (4th, 2010)
John Tavares (1st, 2009)
Matt Duchene (3rd, 2009)
Brayden Schenn (5th, 2009)
Steven Stamkos (1st, 2008)
Kyle Turris (3rd, 2007)
Jordan Staal (2nd, 2006)
Jonathan Toews (3rd, 2006)
Nicklas Backstrom (4th, 2006)
Sidney Crosby (1st, 2005)

By contrast, all but 3 players on this list look like bona-fide #1 centers or better. Schenn and Turris are the exceptions and the jury is still out on Staal. You can even toss in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1st, 2011) to this list.

Most important of all may be the simple supply-and-demand dynamics. Like it or not, Norris caliber defenseman are much easier to draft and develop in later rounds than trophy caliber centers. Consider that the last time a center not drafted with a top 5 pick won the Hart was Joe Sakic in 2000-01. Before that? Fedorov in 1993-94. The lowest drafted center to ever win the Richard was taken 1st overall (Crosby, Stamkos, Lecavalier). By contrast the Norris list is a hodge-podge of draft positions. Karlsson was 15th overall. Niedermayer and Pronger were top 3 picks. Lidstrom and Chara were 3rd rounders. Keith was drafted in the 2nd. For ever Ray Bourque drafted in the top 5, you have a Rob Blake taken in the 4th round. Heck, Shea Weber wasn't even a 1st rounder. Stud defenseman routinely pop up later in the draft. Stud centers like a Datsyuk or Zetterberg showing up beyond the top picks is almost unheard of. You take the commodity that is only available up there (franchise center) and you rely on your scouting and development to produce the next wave of stud D with your picks in the 20s and later.

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12-19-2012, 06:34 AM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FissionFire View Post
Here's a quick list of the past few defenseman taken in the top 5 of their draft.....

Adam Larsson (4th, 2011)
Erik Gudbranson (3rd, 2010)
Victor Hedman (2nd, 2009)
Drew Doughty (2nd, 2008)
Zack Bogosian (3rd, 2008)
Alex Pietrangelo (4th, 2008)
Luke Schenn (5th, 2008)
Thomas Hickey (4th, 2007)
Karl Alzner (5th, 2007)
Erik Johnson (1st, 2006)
Jack Johnson (3rd, 2005)

Solid list, but not that great. One of them hasn't even played a game in the NHL yet (Hickey). None of them were really stud players until about 3 years after their draft season, aside from Doughty. Of that list probably only Doughty, Pietrangelo, and maybe Larsson still appear to be top tier #1 D guys or perennial Norris candidates. None of the rest would be worth trading away a franchise center for.

Speaking of that, a glance at centers drafted in the top 5 of those drafts.....

Tyler Seguin (2nd, 2010)
Ryan Johansen (4th, 2010)
John Tavares (1st, 2009)
Matt Duchene (3rd, 2009)
Brayden Schenn (5th, 2009)
Steven Stamkos (1st, 2008)
Kyle Turris (3rd, 2007)
Jordan Staal (2nd, 2006)
Jonathan Toews (3rd, 2006)
Nicklas Backstrom (4th, 2006)
Sidney Crosby (1st, 2005)

By contrast, all but 3 players on this list look like bona-fide #1 centers or better. Schenn and Turris are the exceptions and the jury is still out on Staal. You can even toss in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1st, 2011) to this list.

Most important of all may be the simple supply-and-demand dynamics. Like it or not, Norris caliber defenseman are much easier to draft and develop in later rounds than trophy caliber centers. Consider that the last time a center not drafted with a top 5 pick won the Hart was Joe Sakic in 2000-01. Before that? Fedorov in 1993-94. The lowest drafted center to ever win the Richard was taken 1st overall (Crosby, Stamkos, Lecavalier). By contrast the Norris list is a hodge-podge of draft positions. Karlsson was 15th overall. Niedermayer and Pronger were top 3 picks. Lidstrom and Chara were 3rd rounders. Keith was drafted in the 2nd. For ever Ray Bourque drafted in the top 5, you have a Rob Blake taken in the 4th round. Heck, Shea Weber wasn't even a 1st rounder. Stud defenseman routinely pop up later in the draft. Stud centers like a Datsyuk or Zetterberg showing up beyond the top picks is almost unheard of. You take the commodity that is only available up there (franchise center) and you rely on your scouting and development to produce the next wave of stud D with your picks in the 20s and later.
Yeah but some of those dman shouldn't have been taken at top 5. Hickey for example. He was a reach.

Schenn was never projected to have big offensive upside. Same with Alzner. Neither of them were projected to go 1st overall, same with JJ.

It's way too early to say that Gudbranson and Hedman won't have #1D ability or they won't compete for Norris. Same with Bogosian.

I think only Doughty and Hedman were competing for 1st overall and Larsson too?

EJ could have been much better if he hadn't blown out his knee. And he's still fairly young and can/will improve. Maybe not enough to warrant he's draft status, though.


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12-19-2012, 07:27 AM
  #42
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That forwards vs. defencemen can be a misleading comparison. Defencemen's development needs more seasoning, so most them catch their career peak later than young forwards usually have. So it's easier to say that "forwards were better", if you just look the latest years.

So with forwards you get faster help, but on long run those defencemen can be as important to the organization than the forwards.

I'm doing this "GM-book way" in some keeper league. First I draft a great defence with lots of quantity in early years, then I start drafting forwards with quality. They should peak at the same time and the championships will come.

In a cap world, if you draft a great offence first, you just get a high scoring team with bad defence and expensive contracts (like Edmonton). But like St. Louis, drafting a great defence that turns to be a low-scoring team even with great offensive forwards that jump in later (like St. Louis) you control the salary cap pretty easily.

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12-19-2012, 08:52 AM
  #43
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Yeah but some of those dman shouldn't gave been taken at top 5. Hickey for example. He was a reach.

Schenn was never projected to have big offensive upside. Same with Alzner. Neither of them were projected to go 1st overall, same with JJ.

It's way too early to say that Gudbranson and Hedman won't have #1D ability or they won't compete for Norris. Same with Bogosian.

I think only Doughty and Hedman were competing for 1st overall and Larsson too?

EJ could have been much better if he hadn't blown out his knee. And he's still fairly young and can/will improve. Maybe not enough to warrant he's draft status, though.
That's precisely my point. The window for this team to win Cups is probably only open for another 3-5 years max with this core, probably less. Unless you plan to blow it up and do a full rebuild drafting D means you are essentially not going for it now and just hoping to build for the future. Ilitch may not want to wait for the next wave of players (he probably won't be around then) so he'll want to win now in all likelihood. The franchise center helps him do that. The franchise D probably doesn't pay off until 5+ years down the road, if at all.

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12-19-2012, 09:52 AM
  #44
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hmm.

Jarnkrok. Maybe sheahan. Emmerton could still do it (he was supposed to be a 2nd line playmaking center, and he's still only a year older than nyquist).

Nyquist is slotted as a winger and probably will play a career as a winger, but is a natural center. Tatar too.



Which cups did we win with average defense?
98 02

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12-19-2012, 10:53 AM
  #45
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98 02
How can the 2002 defence be average if there was current Norris Trophy Winner and another candidate?

It was a good defence, not great, but definitely not average either.

Lidström - Olausson
Fischer - Chelios
Duschene - Dandenault

Duschene and Olausson were over 1000 game realiable NHL veterans, great puckmoving defencemen. Only Dandenault was a weak link of that group.

I'd say the 1998 was maybe the weakest, but very hard to think that as an average either.

Lidström - Murphy
Fetisov - Eriksson
Macoun - Rouse

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12-19-2012, 11:01 AM
  #46
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[QUOTE=eva unit zero;56646423]Hmm.Jarnkrok. Maybe Sheahan. Emmerton could still do it (he was supposed to be a 2nd line playmaking center, and he's still only a year older than Nyquist).

Jarnkrok will probably be a top 6 center. Sheahan at best will be a 2nd line center if he improves his offensive game. I see him as a third line shutdown center though.

I see nothing that Emmerton has done in the AHL or the NHL for that matter that shows us that he will be a full-time NHL center, let alone a 2nd line playmaking center. Emmerton to face-off against the top 6 of other teams around the league? Not going to happen. We one very good center (Jarnkrok), a couple of average to above average centers (Sheahan, Andersson) and a lot of mediocre centers in our prospect pool (Raedeke, Aubry, Emmerton, Quine). I prefer Ferraro on the wing.

Quote:
Nyquist is slotted as a winger and probably will play a career as a winger, but is a natural center. Tatar too.
I am not counting these two as centers. Tatar plays wing and is more than capable of playing in the NHL at that position. As a center? I don't think so. Nyquist is better as a playmaking LW/RW. Haven't seen him play C as much (maybe in college? )

Our center depth is awful and I would go for MacKinnon ahead of Jones. I was very impressed with his performances at WJC camp. But no way Detroit drafts this high anyways.

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12-19-2012, 11:23 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by FissionFire View Post
Here's a quick list of the past few defenseman taken in the top 5 of their draft.....

Victor Hedman (2nd, 2009)
Drew Doughty (2nd, 2008)
Erik Johnson (1st, 2006)

Speaking of that, a glance at centers drafted in the top 5 of those drafts.....

Tyler Seguin (2nd, 2010)
John Tavares (1st, 2009)
Steven Stamkos (1st, 2008)
Jordan Staal (2nd, 2006)
Sidney Crosby (1st, 2005)
I pared this down even further since we're talking top 2 and whether we select a forward or d-man so I've narrowed it down to guys who were selected in the top 2. 33% of the dmen have turned into dominant players within a season or two, that is obviously Doughty. 80% of the forwards turned into dominant players very quickly with only Staal having not proven himself as a scoring line forward.

If we pare it down one more spot to #1 picks Johnson hasn't proven to be worth that place in the draft while Tavares, Stamkos and Crosby are all superstars.

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12-19-2012, 11:39 AM
  #48
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I am not counting these two as centers. Tatar plays wing and is more than capable of playing in the NHL at that position. As a center? I don't think so. Nyquist is better as a playmaking LW/RW. Haven't seen him play C as much (maybe in college? )

Our center depth is awful and I would go for MacKinnon ahead of Jones. I was very impressed with his performances at WJC camp. But no way Detroit drafts this high anyways.
Yeah, last time Nyquist has been a center was at Swedish juniors. I just don't think he ever moves back, this is his fifth season in-a-row as a winger. You don't have any faceoff ability, it's really hard to build back from zero.

Same for Tatar. When is the last time he has been a center? At Slovakian days? I don't remember any center games at any season after he was drafted by Wings (at 2009). At slovakian national team he has been a wing.

You just can't change wingers back to center (even with some junior history) as easy as centers can adapt to wingers.

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12-19-2012, 12:17 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by FissionFire View Post
Here's a quick list of the past few defenseman taken in the top 5 of their draft.....

Adam Larsson (4th, 2011)
Erik Gudbranson (3rd, 2010)
Victor Hedman (2nd, 2009)
Drew Doughty (2nd, 2008)
Zack Bogosian (3rd, 2008)
Alex Pietrangelo (4th, 2008)
Luke Schenn (5th, 2008)
Thomas Hickey (4th, 2007)
Karl Alzner (5th, 2007)
Erik Johnson (1st, 2006)
Jack Johnson (3rd, 2005)

Solid list, but not that great. One of them hasn't even played a game in the NHL yet (Hickey). None of them were really stud players until about 3 years after their draft season, aside from Doughty. Of that list probably only Doughty, Pietrangelo, and maybe Larsson still appear to be top tier #1 D guys or perennial Norris candidates. None of the rest would be worth trading away a franchise center for.

Speaking of that, a glance at centers drafted in the top 5 of those drafts.....

Tyler Seguin (2nd, 2010)
Ryan Johansen (4th, 2010)
John Tavares (1st, 2009)
Matt Duchene (3rd, 2009)
Brayden Schenn (5th, 2009)
Steven Stamkos (1st, 2008)
Kyle Turris (3rd, 2007)
Jordan Staal (2nd, 2006)
Jonathan Toews (3rd, 2006)
Nicklas Backstrom (4th, 2006)
Sidney Crosby (1st, 2005)

By contrast, all but 3 players on this list look like bona-fide #1 centers or better. Schenn and Turris are the exceptions and the jury is still out on Staal. You can even toss in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1st, 2011) to this list.

Most important of all may be the simple supply-and-demand dynamics. Like it or not, Norris caliber defenseman are much easier to draft and develop in later rounds than trophy caliber centers. Consider that the last time a center not drafted with a top 5 pick won the Hart was Joe Sakic in 2000-01. Before that? Fedorov in 1993-94. The lowest drafted center to ever win the Richard was taken 1st overall (Crosby, Stamkos, Lecavalier). By contrast the Norris list is a hodge-podge of draft positions. Karlsson was 15th overall. Niedermayer and Pronger were top 3 picks. Lidstrom and Chara were 3rd rounders. Keith was drafted in the 2nd. For ever Ray Bourque drafted in the top 5, you have a Rob Blake taken in the 4th round. Heck, Shea Weber wasn't even a 1st rounder. Stud defenseman routinely pop up later in the draft. Stud centers like a Datsyuk or Zetterberg showing up beyond the top picks is almost unheard of. You take the commodity that is only available up there (franchise center) and you rely on your scouting and development to produce the next wave of stud D with your picks in the 20s and later.
Overall I would rather have a top Dman. I'd rather build my own team like the Preds than the Oilers. But you bring up a really good point of drafting accuracy and to that point I would take MacKinnon.

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12-19-2012, 05:17 PM
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[QUOTE=ProPAIN;56670341]
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Hmm.



I am not counting these two as centers. Tatar plays wing and is more than capable of playing in the NHL at that position. As a center? I don't think so. Nyquist is better as a playmaking LW/RW. Haven't seen him play C as much (maybe in college? )

Our center depth is awful and I would go for MacKinnon ahead of Jones. I was very impressed with his performances at WJC camp. But no way Detroit drafts this high anyways.
Nyquist NEVER NEVER played center in college.

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