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Philadelphia Phillies (MLB): The "Ruf"fled Offseason Thread

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Old
12-17-2012, 04:32 PM
  #826
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
I want to say Joseph and Pettibone are way too high, but, sadly, there really isn't anyone else that hands down deserves those spots.
Well BA was really big on Joseph prior to the trade so no surprise there. I agree on Pettibone, I'd flip him and Martin who I was very impressed with. I also like Austin Wright a lot, was named top pitcher in the FSL this year.

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12-17-2012, 04:40 PM
  #827
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Well BA was really big on Joseph prior to the trade so no surprise there. I agree on Pettibone, I'd flip him and Martin who I was very impressed with. I also like Austin Wright a lot, was named top pitcher in the FSL this year.
Joseph is a catcher that has a chance to be a pretty good hitter, decent defensively, and a very good thrower. That's a lot to like. He very well could turn out to be just average, but a catcher with his kind of ability is too much to overlook.

Pettibone is ranked that high due to his proximity to the bigs and his high floor. He looks like a fixture at the back end of the rotation with the ability to be an innings eater. Don't think he'll ever wow anyone but just be a solid starter. The organization thinks highly of him as well. Martin's upside is definitely higher, but there is some risk that he might not be able to stick as a starter.

From what I heard, in the BA chat, they said Wright might be a bullpen guy. This year in AA will be telling of his future.

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12-17-2012, 04:58 PM
  #828
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Originally Posted by FLYguy3911 View Post
Joseph is a catcher that has a chance to be a pretty good hitter, decent defensively, and a very good thrower. That's a lot to like. He very well could turn out to be just average, but a catcher with his kind of ability is too much to overlook.
I just don't see why Joseph is THAT much more highly thought of than Valle. Defensively, Joseph has thrown runners out better than Valle, but Valle has been better overall (though Joseph has gotten better since his 19 PB in 65 games in A in 2010). Offensively, they both have had similiar numbers (though admittedly with a 1 year age difference skewed towards Joseph) at every level (with A+ being the one marked difference with a 80 point OPS difference in Joseph's favor) particuliarly last year in AA (.715 vs. .716 OPS). Joseph takes walks better, but Valle has more power and, imo, the former is teachable and the latter is not.

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12-17-2012, 07:06 PM
  #829
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
I just don't see why Joseph is THAT much more highly thought of than Valle. Defensively, Joseph has thrown runners out better than Valle, but Valle has been better overall (though Joseph has gotten better since his 19 PB in 65 games in A in 2010). Offensively, they both have had similiar numbers (though admittedly with a 1 year age difference skewed towards Joseph) at every level (with A+ being the one marked difference with a 80 point OPS difference in Joseph's favor) particuliarly last year in AA (.715 vs. .716 OPS). Joseph takes walks better, but Valle has more power and, imo, the former is teachable and the latter is not.
Plate discipline is a skill. It can be taught to a certain point like many other skills, but in reality, you either have it or you don't. Valle doesn't have it.

Valle's plate discipline is going to keep him from being nothing more than a backup. He's got nice tools- good defender, nice pop, decent average, but it's a red flag when his walk rate goes down with every promotion and his K rate rises with each promotion. You can deal with strikeouts when a player is getting on base and/or hitting for power. Valle has nice pop, but its not enough to offset his horrendous discipline.

Joseph doesn't walk a ton at the moment, but he has improved since his professional debut. Valle hit more HRs last year, but Joseph has better raw power (if Joseph had Valle's approach he would have hit more HRs). Joseph hit 22 HRs in 2011 albeit in the CAL league. Valle is a better catcher right now, but Joseph is improving and is a better thrower and gets praised for his leadership. He has done this as a 20 year old in AA. This is a big year for Joseph in regards to his future. I hope they let him start in AA this season.

The organization was willing to part ways with Valle for a reliever. That right there tells you he isn't in their long term plans. Regardless, the Phillies have a lot of depth at the catching position. Joseph, Valle, Rupp, Lino, Ludy.

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12-17-2012, 07:08 PM
  #830
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
I just don't see why Joseph is THAT much more highly thought of than Valle. Defensively, Joseph has thrown runners out better than Valle, but Valle has been better overall (though Joseph has gotten better since his 19 PB in 65 games in A in 2010). Offensively, they both have had similiar numbers (though admittedly with a 1 year age difference skewed towards Joseph) at every level (with A+ being the one marked difference with a 80 point OPS difference in Joseph's favor) particuliarly last year in AA (.715 vs. .716 OPS). Joseph takes walks better, but Valle has more power and, imo, the former is teachable and the latter is not.
Joseph's edge in plate discipline is significant, especially over the last two years. It might be more teachable than power but a guy like Valle with about a 3% walk rate in AA/AAA is never going to be a very disciplined hitter, barring a miracle. Joseph's edge there is big enough that they're not even very close, to me. I also think Joseph has more raw power, based on scouting reports, even though Valle showed it more last year. Plus, Joseph being a year younger is a big deal.

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12-17-2012, 07:14 PM
  #831
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The Jays are going to be pretty good this year. I wonder if they can sneak into the playoffs.

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12-17-2012, 07:23 PM
  #832
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The Jays are going to be pretty good this year. I wonder if they can sneak into the playoffs.
Teams built through trades and FA signings usually don't meet expectations, but they sure got better. They still play in the toughest division so it won't be easy.

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12-17-2012, 07:58 PM
  #833
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The Jays are going to be pretty good this year. I wonder if they can sneak into the playoffs.
Who is sneaking? They are going to win the AL East outright.

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12-18-2012, 09:39 AM
  #834
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Who is sneaking? They are going to win the AL East outright.
I wouldn't bet the house on that. It'll be pretty competitive if the Orioles can mimic their performance.

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12-18-2012, 09:58 AM
  #835
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Originally Posted by FLYguy3911 View Post
Joseph is a catcher that has a chance to be a pretty good hitter, decent defensively, and a very good thrower. That's a lot to like. He very well could turn out to be just average, but a catcher with his kind of ability is too much to overlook.

Pettibone is ranked that high due to his proximity to the bigs and his high floor. He looks like a fixture at the back end of the rotation with the ability to be an innings eater. Don't think he'll ever wow anyone but just be a solid starter. The organization thinks highly of him as well. Martin's upside is definitely higher, but there is some risk that he might not be able to stick as a starter.

From what I heard, in the BA chat, they said Wright might be a bullpen guy. This year in AA will be telling of his future.
I know a lot of people are high on Joseph so hopefully he gets there. I actually figured he would be ranked that high, my surprise from BA was more how high they had Quinn which I thought he might be a little lower. I haven't been impressed with Joseph yet but hopefully next season is a big one for him in Reading assuming that's where he ends up. It sucks the Pence trade blew up as losing Singleton still stings badly as it will be interesting to see how he does in the AL if/when he gets the call.

Pettibone I see as another KK so I would never have him top 4 despite how close he is to the bigs. I know that Martin had some troubles in his development but I'm only going off what i've seen since the trade, he's a guy I am really looking forward to seeing what he can do. With Biddle, Morgan and Wright, they have 3 LP's so perhaps one will be forced to the pen, really like all 3 a lot though so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next 2-3 years.

I know BA really like Kenny Gilies fastball, so it's going to be interesting to see how it goes for him in AA as if things go well he might not be that far from seeing ML time.

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Old
12-18-2012, 11:18 AM
  #836
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
I just don't see why Joseph is THAT much more highly thought of than Valle. Defensively, Joseph has thrown runners out better than Valle, but Valle has been better overall (though Joseph has gotten better since his 19 PB in 65 games in A in 2010). Offensively, they both have had similiar numbers (though admittedly with a 1 year age difference skewed towards Joseph) at every level (with A+ being the one marked difference with a 80 point OPS difference in Joseph's favor) particuliarly last year in AA (.715 vs. .716 OPS). Joseph takes walks better, but Valle has more power and, imo, the former is teachable and the latter is not.
Their power numbers are pretty similar.

ISO

Valle:

2010: .174
2011: .109
2012: .174 at AA (83 games), .179 at AAA (22 games)

Joseph:

2010: .165
2011: .198
2012: .132 at AA San Fran (80 games), .170 at AA Phillies (28 games)

Joseph was better last year at AA while being a full year younger.

Joseph is just a better prospect.

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12-18-2012, 11:34 AM
  #837
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
I just don't see why Joseph is THAT much more highly thought of than Valle. Defensively, Joseph has thrown runners out better than Valle, but Valle has been better overall (though Joseph has gotten better since his 19 PB in 65 games in A in 2010). Offensively, they both have had similiar numbers (though admittedly with a 1 year age difference skewed towards Joseph) at every level (with A+ being the one marked difference with a 80 point OPS difference in Joseph's favor) particuliarly last year in AA (.715 vs. .716 OPS). Joseph takes walks better, but Valle has more power and, imo, the former is teachable and the latter is not.
Valle and Joseph have similar SLG, which many scouts would say is probably a better predictor than HR totals. Joseph definitely didn't show much progression last year, whereas Valle has been pretty stagnant for 2 seasons.

I am really not that excited about either, but as catchers, they get a "we'll see" tag.

Overall, I hate BA's rankings and frankly have found them to be a generally poor predictor of future success at the big league level. I love guys like Maikel Franco a lot more than are typically reflected in BA rankings. They tend to be extremely cautious about guys that make rapid, but progressive improvements and linger too long on higher draft picks that don't develop that much.

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12-18-2012, 01:13 PM
  #838
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Who is sneaking? They are going to win the AL East outright.
I'd be happy with that. I only have fleeting memories of 1993 World Series, so I don't hold any serious ill will toward the Blue Jays. They are better than the alternative (although I'd prefer if the Orioles could just take over the AL East for a while).

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12-18-2012, 02:46 PM
  #839
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We signed a dude.

Source: Some other dude.

I am just terrible at following baseball

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12-18-2012, 03:40 PM
  #840
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
Who is sneaking? They are going to win the AL East outright.
I could see this. I voted for the Jays to win the AL East on Sportnation (and traditionally I always pick the Yankees.)

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12-18-2012, 11:01 PM
  #841
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Phils are rumored to be interested in Cody Ross and Vernon Wells.

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12-18-2012, 11:29 PM
  #842
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Phils are rumored to be interested in Cody Ross and Vernon Wells.
Knew we would try for Wells once we lost out on Hamilton

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12-18-2012, 11:38 PM
  #843
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The only way I will take Vernon Wells is if the Angels give him to us and pay all of his salary. and if his name is Peter Bourjos.

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12-19-2012, 12:06 AM
  #844
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Phils are rumored to be interested in Cody Ross and Vernon Wells.
I thought Cody Ross had a good year in Boston last year. Not saying he is a superstar or anything but hes a good hitter. Solid clubhouse guy too.
Vernon Wells is a guy I would stay far away from

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12-19-2012, 08:48 AM
  #845
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Sometimes I feel like our organization is run by the dudes in the Moneyball film, talking about how this prospect has a good jawline, this one has an ugly girlfriend etc.

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12-19-2012, 09:20 AM
  #846
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I thought Cody Ross had a good year in Boston last year. Not saying he is a superstar or anything but hes a good hitter. Solid clubhouse guy too.
.790, .735, .730, .807 - those are his last 4 seasons of OPS. Even if that last number (the one he put up in Boston last year) wasn't heavily tainted by H vs. A splits it still would only be mediocre for a corner OFer (Mayberry hit .854 OPS the year Cholly threw him under the bus and forced Amaro to gut the farm for Pence - speaking of mediocre corner OFers!) and the prior 2 years were well below average (he actually posted a -0.1 WAR in 2010).

Ross would: 1) Stunt Brown/Ruff development (because, unlike Hairston, I doubt he'd be willing to be a platoon bat - even though that is exactly what both are), 2) Reportedly cost 10M for 3 years (even counting his CF seasons [which are over now] which bloated his WAR he has only been good for roughly 1 WAR/season - so that is massive overpayment for production), 3) Add nothing - litterally - if Brown or Ruff post under a .750 OPS (Ross' likely projection away from Fenway) then we aren't winning anything anyway - or at the very least we can trade for something midseason.

I'd rather trade for Vernon Wells (assuming at least 25-30M of that contract is footed by Anaheim) and hope for a bounce back from him. I mean, we are already counting on a 36 year old defensive sieve to bounce back this year - why can't we give a 34 year old who can actually at least catch a ball the benefit of the doubt, too?

One of the things I hate most about Amaro/Cholly (and there is quite a bit) is that they has to have their roster set for October in January (minus a farm gutting deadline deal, of course). Why couldn't we let Galvis/Frandsen play 3B, Ruff/Brown/Mayberry play the OF and then in mid-May assess whether or not we need to make a move? Even if they are just terrible, in 1.5 months they are only going to cost us maybe half a WAR... not exactly the end of the world. Instead we go after guys like Ross, Young, Wells, Soriano, etc. whom are potentially DOWNGRADES to what we already have because we just need that "proven commodity". Moronic. I'd rather an unproven commodity that has potential to be good over a commodity that has already been "proven" to be mediocre/bad, personally.

Quote:
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Sometimes I feel like our organization is run by the dudes in the Moneyball film, talking about how this prospect has a good jawline, this one has an ugly girlfriend etc.
I have always had the sinking feeling that some of the portrayals of the 'old basebally guys' that refused to conform to the doctrine of Beane were based off of Gillick (whom, if I remember correctly, was outspoken about his disdain for MoneyBall). Of course, I take Gillick over Beane 9 times out of 10, but Amaro is Pat's Frankenstein monster and he tries to emulate him, but he just isn't him. I rank him as a below average, bording poor GM, personally. If he didn't inherit a championship caliber core (from Gillick) and a booming payroll this team would have gone nowhere - and it really is remarkable how quickly he closed our old window and began to run this team into the ground... the blueprint to keep this thing going was so simple, too... that is the most frustrating part.


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Old
12-19-2012, 10:19 AM
  #847
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With Ryan Howard AND Vernon Wells, we'll have one complete position player.

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12-19-2012, 10:36 AM
  #848
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Vernon Wells really stinks. His OBP the last two years is .258. Aside from his 2010, he hasn't been any good since 2006. Even if the Angels pay most of his salary and don't require a good prospect in return, I don't want him. He'll just take away at-bats from the younger guys who might not suck.

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12-19-2012, 10:40 AM
  #849
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With Ryan Howard AND Vernon Wells, we'll have one complete position player.
I know this was a joke, but...

If players/managers could suck up their pride (not that either ever would), a Howard/Ruff platoon at 1B and Wells/Brown/Ruff platoon in the corner OF would actually probably be pretty effective.

vs. LHP
1B Ruff
LF Brown/Mayberry
RF Wells

vs. RHP
1B Howard
LF Ruff/Wells
RF Brown

I bet we get over .800+ OPS out of all 3 positions with that type of setup.

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Vernon Wells really stinks. His OBP the last two years is .258. Aside from his 2010, he hasn't been any good since 2006. Even if the Angels pay most of his salary and don't require a good prospect in return, I don't want him. He'll just take away at-bats from the younger guys who might not suck.
I don't want him either, but would prefer him at 4-5M for 2 years over Ross at 10M for 3 years.

Even in my above scenario you could supplant Mayberry for everywhere Wells is listed and probably get the same (or better) production, but god forbid Cholly have a couple rookies and/or platoons in his lineup. "You gotta get dem dere, uhhh, dem vets, uhhh dey know how ta play ta, uhhh, game and stuff, you know?"

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12-19-2012, 11:56 AM
  #850
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Originally Posted by CootaRoo View Post
I know this was a joke, but...

If players/managers could suck up their pride (not that either ever would), a Howard/Ruff platoon at 1B and Wells/Brown/Ruff platoon in the corner OF would actually probably be pretty effective.

vs. LHP
1B Ruff
LF Brown/Mayberry
RF Wells

vs. RHP
1B Howard
LF Ruff/Wells
RF Brown

I bet we get over .800+ OPS out of all 3 positions with that type of setup.



I don't want him either, but would prefer him at 4-5M for 2 years over Ross at 10M for 3 years.

Even in my above scenario you could supplant Mayberry for everywhere Wells is listed and probably get the same (or better) production, but god forbid Cholly have a couple rookies and/or platoons in his lineup. "You gotta get dem dere, uhhh, dem vets, uhhh dey know how ta play ta, uhhh, game and stuff, you know?"
Anyone giving Ross 3 years isnt very bright. He hasnt shown enough to warrant giving a 3 year deal. me personally I would see if Ross takes a 1 year deal then giving up a asset to acquire Vernon Wells who barely hit his weight last year.
if Ross wants 3 years, hell even 2 I would say fine have fun playing elsewhere.
I am not sure about this, but I think Ross was willing to platoon in Boston before Ellsbury got hurt and he most of the season.
I dont know what his options are, if the Sox wanted him they probably would of signed him over Victorino was got severely overpaid by Boston. The Mets need an OF, doubt he goes to a last place team. Who else needs an OF gotta think the guy is running out of options and they are maybe even less options if he REALLY, REALLY wants an everday job.

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