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Old
12-18-2012, 09:37 PM
  #576
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
26 games is not enough context. There is alot of variance that can happen in 26 games compared to a whole season. If you don't understand the concept of regressing to the norm then look it up.

Over 80 games, over several seasons we see what a players norm is.

I would be curious to know what his shooting % was like in the last 2 years in a weaker league.

I looked it up 16 goals on 110 shots is 14.54 (37 games)

The season before is 18 goals on 108 shots which is 16.666 (43 games)

In his rookie year in the WCHA it was 6 goals on 61 shots good for 9.83

Compared to Smith from Detroit at the same school his shooting % is better but it's still a long way to translate that into the NHL.
Based on your own words:

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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
I'm not spending much time on this thread because math really bores me and I don't understand all the technical mumbo jumbo (more due to a lack of interest than anything else) but I do understand the concepts.
I am going to guess that it might be you who does not understand the concept of "regressing to the norm". (By the way, the reason I use quotes is because the actual term is regressing to the mean. In mathematics a typically norm is an abstract length function defined on a vector space over either real or complex scalars.

The concept you are quoting is repeatedly butchered on these boards. In the context in which you have used it it does virtually nothing for your argument. Let me give you an extreme example of why your previous statement suggesting that "all players regress to the norm" is dubious. Since you have not made a case that this principle only applies to SH% I can assume it also applies to goal scoring. The mean number of goals per player is about 10. If I buy what you wrote then I can conclude the Steven Stamkos should be expected to regress to that level in the near future. after all you have rejected the idea that it is possible that elite skill might lead to statistical outliers.

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12-18-2012, 11:53 PM
  #577
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
Based on your own words:


I am going to guess that it might be you who does not understand the concept of "regressing to the norm". (By the way, the reason I use quotes is because the actual term is regressing to the mean. In mathematics a typically norm is an abstract length function defined on a vector space over either real or complex scalars.

The concept you are quoting is repeatedly butchered on these boards. In the context in which you have used it it does virtually nothing for your argument. Let me give you an extreme example of why your previous statement suggesting that "all players regress to the norm" is dubious. Since you have not made a case that this principle only applies to SH% I can assume it also applies to goal scoring. The mean number of goals per player is about 10. If I buy what you wrote then I can conclude the Steven Stamkos should be expected to regress to that level in the near future. after all you have rejected the idea that it is possible that elite skill might lead to statistical outliers.

I'm not a mathematician but all players regress to their norm to me in simple terms means that over a long period of time a player finds his consistency or value point. His college shooting % is lower than his 26 game %, he will regress back to his norm (and then further adjust lower to the increased skill level of the AHL and NHL over time).

Maybe regressing to "the norm" was the wrong term to use, it sure would be in your Stamkos case. Stamkos is an elite goal scorer and his norm is at or near the top of the league in goal scoring and this translates into around 50 goals per season (although their is some variance here). his top goal scoring status should continue to be "his norm" over a season, despite peaks and valleys within those seasons, until something major happens, like aging, injury or Marty St. Loius retiring and the new line mate being a complete step down from him.

Every player has "their norm" and over any season they will have peaks and valleys, it is the rare 82 PPG player that gets points in every game or 10 points in every 10 game segment.

If I have butchered the term "regressing to the norm" I apologize for the confusion but it's alot more understandable than the "dead puck era" ripoff from baseball tern that gets thrown around even more often. the puck, unlike the baseball, was never dead.

Clutch and Grab era would be more accurate.

I have made it pretty clear on how his long range shooting % will most likely come down for a couple of reasons in previous posts.

I also think that Schultz's norm isn't 115 points in an AHL season but given the super 3 guys with major NHL experience in Eberle, RNH and Hall, he might have a 100 point season in him but I would bet really good money against it.

The bet would be made on logic and evaluating factors, I really like Schultz as a player.

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12-18-2012, 11:58 PM
  #578
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Originally Posted by WhiskeyYourTheDevils View Post
I don't think I've ever seen anyone with a wrist shot from the point like his. His skating was very impressive. There was one play where he had to recover while zucker and granlund broke in shorthanded and he made it look easy. All this considering he looks like he's grown in the last 2 years - he's all of 6'2. His passing game is excellent. I think he could be a top 10 offensive dman coming into the league next year. And with the chemistry he's already shown with Eberle, I think 12+ goals 50+ points is within reach. He's got such a unique ability at the point, you can tell he's really aiming his wrist shots from there, trying to score, not just trying to get pucks through. One of the few guys I've seen do that on a consistent basis.

He's got a lot of Karlsson in his game, but his skating and vision aren't at the same level. But he is a good amount bigger. He should be a pretty consistent 15g+ 55p+ defenseman with a solid 2 way game once he hits his prime.
I missed it in your post, is he top 5 or top 10 elite NHL right now.

That's the question in response to your OP in which you stated that he was NHL elite.

We know that he is AHL and NCAA elite but nowhere else have I seen him described as NHL elite except in your OP.

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12-19-2012, 12:06 AM
  #579
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As a Leafs fan, I think Schultz will turn into a perennial 60-70 point dman, with the possibility of touching a PPG. He is a freaking beast. I'd much rather have him over Gardiner, who is also good, but IMO will be more of a 50ish pt dman.

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12-19-2012, 12:13 AM
  #580
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Come play for Canucks. Pleaseeeeeeeee. Man, that Oilers team has clutch written all over it. They are going to be an absolute nightmare to play against in the playoffs. I know it may be tough for them the next year or two, but if they get into the playoffs, they definitely have enough offensive power to run any team into the ground. Eberle is more clutch than anyone in the league. Yakupov, hall, eberle, rnh, schultz, SAM ****ING GA8NE. I even think Dubnyk is fairly solid. I'm already scared as a Canucks fan. Their high-end offensive skill is so much better than ours. Sure, the sedins have amazing plays, but the deking, sniping ability and speed on that oilers team is just incredible. There is a reason why they beatdown the Blackhawks a few times last season.

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12-19-2012, 12:16 AM
  #581
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Ya.

I'll be honest and say that I'm scared ****less of the Oilers.
****.

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12-19-2012, 12:18 AM
  #582
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
What norm are you talking about here? This notion of "regression to the norm" is one of the most badly abused concepts on these boards. In the context you use it it has almost no meaning.

If what you are trying to say is that 10% would be exceptional for an NHl player, then yes I agree. However, the reality is that Schultz has demonstrated exceptional qualities that make the probabilty of him being a statistical outlier rather significant.
the context is quite simple. Schultz has a shooting % of 19.2 (26 GP-14 G and 73 SOG). Schultz has taken 2.80 S/game.

Now let's look at all of the Dmen total's of shooting % who shoot over 2 shots per game, to take out guys that shoot a couple times a year and I'm actually being very beneficial to Schultz here.

I'll go back to all post lockout seasons.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

So all this talk about Schultz shooting % in the NHL between 10-12% is possible but extremely unlikely given only 9 guys have done it in the 7 seasons since the lockout (after taking out the 1 and 14 game guys).

Now let's take a closer look at how all Dmen have done overall since the lockout.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

we can see that those Dmen who averaged more than 10% have 2 things in common

First they all have very low shots totals and low SPG as well.

The only guy who has a large sample and plays full time on a PP, both of which Schultz is expected to do, is Visnovsky at 9.5%.

Now maybe Schultz will do better but the actual chances of him doing so, and at a 10% clip for any period of time seems really low, especially given that in the 1st list no player did it in 12 with the bigger shift to defensive play in then 2nd half of the season.

Quote:
However, the reality is that Schultz has demonstrated exceptional qualities that make the probabilty of him being a statistical outlier rather significant.
The REALITY is 26 games in the AHL, the history of the AHL is littered with many players who scored at exceptional rates for such short periods of time and many had little to no NHL success.

Now I'm fully confident that Schultz will ahve a very good NHL career but all this mumbo jumbo about elite NHL skills and maintaining a shooting % of 10-12% is just nonsense at this point.


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12-19-2012, 12:32 AM
  #583
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Originally Posted by luongo321 View Post
Come play for Canucks. Pleaseeeeeeeee. Man, that Oilers team has clutch written all over it. They are going to be an absolute nightmare to play against in the playoffs. I know it may be tough for them the next year or two, but if they get into the playoffs, they definitely have enough offensive power to run any team into the ground. Eberle is more clutch than anyone in the league. Yakupov, hall, eberle, rnh, schultz, SAM ****ING GA8NE. I even think Dubnyk is fairly solid. I'm already scared as a Canucks fan. Their high-end offensive skill is so much better than ours. Sure, the sedins have amazing plays, but the deking, sniping ability and speed on that oilers team is just incredible. There is a reason why they beatdown the Blackhawks a few times last season.

I really don't think we're that good. Not even close really lol.

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12-19-2012, 12:36 AM
  #584
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Originally Posted by luongo321 View Post
Come play for Canucks. Pleaseeeeeeeee. Man, that Oilers team has clutch written all over it. They are going to be an absolute nightmare to play against in the playoffs. I know it may be tough for them the next year or two, but if they get into the playoffs, they definitely have enough offensive power to run any team into the ground. Eberle is more clutch than anyone in the league. Yakupov, hall, eberle, rnh, schultz, SAM ****ING GA8NE. I even think Dubnyk is fairly solid. I'm already scared as a Canucks fan. Their high-end offensive skill is so much better than ours. Sure, the sedins have amazing plays, but the deking, sniping ability and speed on that oilers team is just incredible. There is a reason why they beatdown the Blackhawks a few times last season.
I do think we have only started to see what that offence can do to teams. Gimme an NHL season and lets see how good those kids can become.

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12-19-2012, 12:39 AM
  #585
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Have you even seen him play?

Or do you just extrapolate a players worth and predict his future from box scores?

This is a rookie dman who leads the league in points. Tied with Jordan Eberle.

Who gives a flying **** about his shooting %?

A bigger bunch of nonsense is hard to find. People were saying the same garbage about Eberle after last year. His shooting percentage is somewhere around 27% right now.
Eberle shot 18.9% last year which is probably unsustainable over teh long term in the NHL

Here is the list of shooting % leaders with at least 40 goals to rid the list of small samples

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

Maybe Jordan keeps it up in the NHL but the numbers say probably not.

Eberle shooting 27% in his AHL time doesn't mean squat to any improved shooting % in the NHL over any sustained period of time.

I've seen clips of him, haven't seen him live.

Do the people that watch him play realize the difference between the AHL and NHL. It's obvious here that soem really don't.

How do you factor in the 3 NHL guys he is playing with?

The thing is that you can't and with Pollyanna glasses Oiler fans see this translating into instant NHL elite type of player which is possible but also extremely remote as well.

Your argument is supported by hope and mine is supported by some basis in reality and NHL statistical data at least.

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12-19-2012, 12:41 AM
  #586
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As a Leafs fan, I think Schultz will turn into a perennial 60-70 point dman, with the possibility of touching a PPG. He is a freaking beast. I'd much rather have him over Gardiner, who is also good, but IMO will be more of a 50ish pt dman.
Gardiner IMO is underrated by many non Leafs fans, kid will be a damn good NHLer for many years to come. That said I agree and the facts that we got him for free and that he chose us when we have been spurned so many times in the past it just makes me smile ear to ear.

Quote:
Originally Posted by luongo321 View Post
Come play for Canucks. Pleaseeeeeeeee. Man, that Oilers team has clutch written all over it. They are going to be an absolute nightmare to play against in the playoffs. I know it may be tough for them the next year or two, but if they get into the playoffs, they definitely have enough offensive power to run any team into the ground. Eberle is more clutch than anyone in the league. Yakupov, hall, eberle, rnh, schultz, SAM ****ING GA8NE. I even think Dubnyk is fairly solid. I'm already scared as a Canucks fan. Their high-end offensive skill is so much better than ours. Sure, the sedins have amazing plays, but the deking, sniping ability and speed on that oilers team is just incredible. There is a reason why they beatdown the Blackhawks a few times last season.
I'm not sure that Gagner will be a long term fit TBH, that said once we start adding some solid vets to the mix we should be a pretty good team.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
the context is quite simple. Schultz has a shooting % of 19.2 (26 GP-14 G and 73 SOG). Schultz has taken 2.80 S/game.

Now let's look at all of the Dmen total's of shooting % who shoot over 2 shots per game, to take out guys that shoot a couple times a year and I'm actually being very beneficial to Schultz here.

I'll go back to all post lockout seasons.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

So all this talk about Schultz shooting % in the NHL between 10-12% is possible but extremely unlikely given only 9 guys have done it in the 7 seasons since the lockout (after taking out the 1 and 14 game guys).

Now let's take a closer look at how all Dmen have done overall since the lockout.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

we can see that those Dmen who averaged more than 10% have 2 things in common

First they all have very low shots totals and low SPG as well.

The only guy who has a large sample and plays full time on a PP, both of which Schultz is expected to do, is Visnovsky at 9.5%.

Now maybe Schultz will do better but the actual chances of him doing so, and at a 10% clip for any period of time seems really low, especially given that in the 1st list no player did it in 12 with the bigger shift to defensive play in then 2nd half of the season.



The REALITY is 26 games in the AHL, the history of the AHL is littered with many players who scored at exceptional rates for such short periods of time and many had little to no NHL success.

Now I'm fully confident that Schultz will ahve a very good NHL career but all this mumbo jumbo about elite NHL skills and maintaining a shooting % of 10-12% is just nonsense at this point.
You can downplay his accomplishments in the AHL all that you want, but this isn't your normal AHL. No matter how you slice it when a defenseman is top 10 in league scoring that is amazing, let alone when he's leading the league. I still stand by my statement that he will shoot 10% or better a number of times in his career. His wrist shot is exceptional in velocity and placement and he gets it through almost at will.

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12-19-2012, 12:44 AM
  #587
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Ya.

I'll be honest and say that I'm scared ****less of the Oilers.
****.

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12-19-2012, 12:48 AM
  #588
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Eberle shot 18.9% last year which is probably unsustainable over teh long term in the NHL

Here is the list of shooting % leaders with at least 40 goals to rid the list of small samples

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

Maybe Jordan keeps it up in the NHL but the numbers say probably not.

Eberle shooting 27% in his AHL time doesn't mean squat to any improved shooting % in the NHL over any sustained period of time.

I've seen clips of him, haven't seen him live.

Do the people that watch him play realize the difference between the AHL and NHL. It's obvious here that soem really don't.

How do you factor in the 3 NHL guys he is playing with?

The thing is that you can't and with Pollyanna glasses Oiler fans see this translating into instant NHL elite type of player which is possible but also extremely remote as well.

Your argument is supported by hope and mine is supported by some basis in reality and NHL statistical data at least.
Let me ask you this, where would you rank Eberle's stickhandling in terms of NHL forwards in terms of percentiles? The same for his shooting accuracy, backhand, and the distance of his shots.

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12-19-2012, 12:54 AM
  #589
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"Unsustainable" has to be one of my favourite words now.

I always get a chuckle when the stats crowd labels a statistical outlier "unsustainable" or "lucky" and refuse to admit the player could just possibly be better than average.

We've already heard it for Jones and Eberle. We'll hear it for Schultz and I have a feeling we'll be hearing it about Yakupov too.

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12-19-2012, 12:57 AM
  #590
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"Unsustainable" has to be one of my favourite words now.

I always get a chuckle when the stats crowd labels a statistical outlier "unsustainable" or "lucky" and refuse to admit the player could just possibly be better than average.

We've already heard it for Jones and Eberle. We'll hear it for Schultz and I have a feeling we'll be hearing it about Yakupov too.
Eberle has the intangibles to keep up that shot percentage.

That Oilers team is going to be so fun to watch. If they break Schneider, I'm going to cry.

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12-19-2012, 12:58 AM
  #591
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Gardiner IMO is underrated by many non Leafs fans, kid will be a damn good NHLer for many years to come. That said I agree and the facts that we got him for free and that he chose us when we have been spurned so many times in the past it just makes me smile ear to ear.
Gardiner will be a good solid NHL Dman I agree but he won't be a consistent 50 point Dmen, if ever, he just isn't elite offensively.



Quote:
I'm not sure that Gagner will be a long term fit TBH, that said once we start adding some solid vets to the mix we should be a pretty good team.
Gagner will be moved within 2 years IMO as the team has enough skilled players and needs to better fill out their lineup with that big tall skilled tough centerman that every teams craves. He is a good secondary player on the 2nd line but needs the right place and team to succeed and the Oilers aren't a good fit IMO.




Quote:
You can downplay his accomplishments in the AHL all that you want, but this isn't your normal AHL. No matter how you slice it when a defenseman is top 10 in league scoring that is amazing, let alone when he's leading the league. I still stand by my statement that he will shoot 10% or better a number of times in his career. His wrist shot is exceptional in velocity and placement and he gets it through almost at will.
He is off to a great start but it's a small sample size and your're right, in a real AHL season RNH, Hall and Eberle are in the NHL.

Over 82 games Schult'z points pace is for 119 points, even with the big 3 staying down it's doubt full that he hits 100, that's what I mean about regressing back to his norm and tempering expectations.

That would be 62 points in his next 56 games which seems impressive until we look at who is playing with and that Mike Kostka has 22 points in 25 games right now.

Still a great 1st AHL season but not as impressive now is it?

all that being said I think he ends up with 90 something points (not really sure how long AHL season is) and will be a great offensive Dman in the NHL, especially with those big 3 and other talent on the Edmonton PP but the hype train here is just unreal at times.

As for shooting % over 10% it's extremely unlikely if he keeps shooting over 2 shots per game in the NHL, maybe 1 or 2 seasons but that's it.

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12-19-2012, 12:59 AM
  #592
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Originally Posted by luongo321 View Post
Eberle has the intangibles to keep up that shot percentage.

That Oilers team is going to be so fun to watch. If they break Schneider, I'm going to cry.
what % is that 27% or 18.9%

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12-19-2012, 01:14 AM
  #593
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what % is that 27% or 18.9%
Both at the same time. He's Jordan ****ING Eberle.

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12-19-2012, 01:23 AM
  #594
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Eberle shot 18.9% last year which is probably unsustainable over teh long term in the NHL

Here is the list of shooting % leaders with at least 40 goals to rid the list of small samples

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

Maybe Jordan keeps it up in the NHL but the numbers say probably not.

Eberle shooting 27% in his AHL time doesn't mean squat to any improved shooting % in the NHL over any sustained period of time.

I've seen clips of him, haven't seen him live.

Do the people that watch him play realize the difference between the AHL and NHL. It's obvious here that soem really don't.

How do you factor in the 3 NHL guys he is playing with?

The thing is that you can't and with Pollyanna glasses Oiler fans see this translating into instant NHL elite type of player which is possible but also extremely remote as well.

Your argument is supported by hope and mine is supported by some basis in reality and NHL statistical data at least.
He is tied with Jordan Eberle in points. Leading the entire league. As a defenseman.

Is Eberle not facing the same watered down competition as Schultz in the AHL? They are, after all, playing on the same team against the same opposition are they not?

Your argument is amusing, but not nearly as funny as seeing you try to spoon feed your jabberwocky to Fourier.

Now THAT, is truly freakin hilarious.

I trust you make yearly visits to the Lightning board, telling them all how Stamkos is going to "regress to the norm" one of these years, but he never does. Dont let that fact get in the way of a good story though.

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12-19-2012, 02:17 AM
  #595
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Watching some higlight packages, Schultz has a diverse game. I'm very impressed with him so far, only thing I can criticze is a lack of a slapper. He has a tremendous wrist shot, however to continue his dominant play into the NHL his wrist shot may not be enough.

It's looking like he'll have all year to work on it the NHL though.

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12-19-2012, 03:08 AM
  #596
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Watching some higlight packages, Schultz has a diverse game. I'm very impressed with him so far, only thing I can criticze is a lack of a slapper. He has a tremendous wrist shot, however to continue his dominant play into the NHL his wrist shot may not be enough.

It's looking like he'll have all year to work on it the NHL though.
He can onetime the puck, however his skating is very good and he uses it to open up shooting lanes. His passing and decision making with the puck is also very good in the O zone. Wrist shots get off a lot quicker than slappers do and as such are often times harder to block. The kid gets pucks through at an incredible rate and he picks spots with it as well, he's not just throwing hail Mary's at the net hoping that they go in, most of his shots are labeled.

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12-19-2012, 04:25 AM
  #597
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Schultz's shooting percentage has always been very high, so I wouldn't be surprised to see that translate well to the NHL. He'll probably lose a few percent off of his college numbers, but that would still put him in the 10-12% range.

I wouldn't put too much stock into the exact magnitude of the AHL numbers, since it is hard to predict how a small sample size translates into the NHL (Jake Gardiner's on pace for nearly 30 goals over a whole season for example).

He's better than I thought he'd be though, and does look like he could be a star in the NHL. Might be able to put together some offensive seasons like Visnovsky's during 2005-2007.

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12-19-2012, 07:28 AM
  #598
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Let me ask you this, where would you rank Eberle's stickhandling in terms of NHL forwards in terms of percentiles? The same for his shooting accuracy, backhand, and the distance of his shots.
Not sure what you mean by distance of his shots but if you mean how he gets his chances in close then it's 90% in those areas you mention.

But that is only part of the equation, as the Oilers get better they will need more from Eberle than 35 goals/season if they want to be SC contenders.

The big question for him is how he develops when he gets more and less sheltered minutes.

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12-19-2012, 07:45 AM
  #599
Hardyvan123
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
"Unsustainable" has to be one of my favourite words now.

I always get a chuckle when the stats crowd labels a statistical outlier "unsustainable" or "lucky" and refuse to admit the player could just possibly be better than average.

We've already heard it for Jones and Eberle. We'll hear it for Schultz and I have a feeling we'll be hearing it about Yakupov too.
Sure two 115 point pace is sustainable and translates into better than last season NHL success, for Eberle.

That's a huge difference than "just better than average" that no one is promoting here.

No doubt we will be hearing about all of the over hype on all these players though and some level of realism needs to be in play here to counteract balance some of the godly projections for these players.

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12-19-2012, 07:49 AM
  #600
Hardyvan123
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
He is tied with Jordan Eberle in points. Leading the entire league. As a defenseman.

Is Eberle not facing the same watered down competition as Schultz in the AHL? They are, after all, playing on the same team against the same opposition are they not?

Your argument is amusing, but not nearly as funny as seeing you try to spoon feed your jabberwocky to Fourier.

Now THAT, is truly freakin hilarious.

I trust you make yearly visits to the Lightning board, telling them all how Stamkos is going to "regress to the norm" one of these years, but he never does. Dont let that fact get in the way of a good story though.
The AHL is not the NHL but you seem to gloss over that point.

I rarely visit team pages and have already discussed Stamkos and his level of play which is as an elite goal scorer in the NHL with a proven track record.

Until Eberle gets to the same level, and Schultz plays in the NHL, it's all hopes and dreams and realistic projections are treated as Jibberish by "informed fans with no bias" such as yourself.

and you want to talk about facts? really?

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