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Old
12-17-2012, 08:52 AM
  #301
Seventeen Twos
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Leafs fan here .. at the current moment Luo is top 5

That said, it is very difficult to predict how long he will stay there.. comparable to the Brodeur scenario of today.


Last edited by spiny norman: 12-19-2012 at 09:24 AM. Reason: not needed
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12-17-2012, 09:26 AM
  #302
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You are right, I am going to try and bring the love back. I love you LL... or maybe it's just "Santa" in your pic there.



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My lowered demands are just your first born child and a 1st...
Lol...just trying to input the spirit of Christmas.

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12-17-2012, 10:52 AM
  #303
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I'll give you Lundqvist and Quick for sure.

Price has never outperformed Luongo over a whole season based on save% (and they've been in the league together for six years). When Price actually starts outperforming Luongo, he'll be better than Luongo...until then, he's not.
I guess better isn't really the right word. I'd take Carey over Luongo because he is younger and is close in terms of talent wise. He has posted close to Lu's numbers over the last few years on a much less impressive team. His best season statistically he played 72 games, 12 more then Luongo's 60, and Luongo's SV% only beat him by .05. In this past season he played ten more games then Lu did and posted a save percentage that was only inferior to Luongo's by.03.

Its also worth noting that over the last two seasons he faced 2147 and 1914 shots respectively comapred to Luongo's 1753 and 1577 shots respectively. Thats almost four hundred more shots then Lu the first season and over three hundred the second.

Price also has more saves over the last two seasons by about six hundred. Given that he faced more shots, thats to be expected.

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12-17-2012, 04:03 PM
  #304
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
I guess better isn't really the right word. I'd take Carey over Luongo because he is younger and is close in terms of talent wise. He has posted close to Lu's numbers over the last few years on a much less impressive team. His best season statistically he played 72 games, 12 more then Luongo's 60, and Luongo's SV% only beat him by .05. In this past season he played ten more games then Lu did and posted a save percentage that was only inferior to Luongo's by.03.

Its also worth noting that over the last two seasons he faced 2147 and 1914 shots respectively comapred to Luongo's 1753 and 1577 shots respectively. Thats almost four hundred more shots then Lu the first season and over three hundred the second.

Price also has more saves over the last two seasons by about six hundred. Given that he faced more shots, thats to be expected.
Hey Sully you're pretty good at this, so I ask what is the relative average of both shots faced and save made if both goaltenders are playing the same amount of games.

I know 600 is quite a bit, but on average the Canucks allow 30 shots a game against so those 12 or so games start to really pull those two numbers together.


I'm not trying to bring Price's value down, I'm just curious if both goalies are playing the same amount are facing similar amounts of shots and still seeing the same amount of statiscal gap between the two.
I personally think Price is a great goalie and has the potential to be just as good as Luongo over his career but so far Price has only come close. Which is partially why I think save for Hank, Lu would be the 2nd best goaltender in the Eastern Conference

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12-18-2012, 09:24 PM
  #305
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Between Leafs and Canucks fans, would you trade Cody Franson for Christopher Tanev+3rd? Franson doesn't seem like he would want to resign but he's also an RFA. So we can trade the negotiation contract to Canucks. Canucks get their hometown boy and Leafs get their hometown boy.

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12-18-2012, 09:47 PM
  #306
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Originally Posted by TmlHockeyFan View Post
Between Leafs and Canucks fans, would you trade Cody Franson for Christopher Tanev+3rd? Franson doesn't seem like he would want to resign but he's also an RFA. So we can trade the negotiation contract to Canucks. Canucks get their hometown boy and Leafs get their hometown boy.
I'd rather not. Ballard-Tanev as a pairing was showing some good chemistry last year. I wouldn't want to break it up unless we are forced to trade Ballard due to salary reasons. I also think Tanev is more likely to continue his development than Franson, so I'd like to see how far he gets before selling him.

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12-18-2012, 09:51 PM
  #307
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Originally Posted by TmlHockeyFan View Post
Between Leafs and Canucks fans, would you trade Cody Franson for Christopher Tanev+3rd? Franson doesn't seem like he would want to resign but he's also an RFA. So we can trade the negotiation contract to Canucks. Canucks get their hometown boy and Leafs get their hometown boy.
As a Canuck fan I wouldn't trade Tanev for Franson straight up. Tanev has improved too much over the last 3 years to let go at this point and his mobility, defensive accumen and quick puck movement fit the Canucks like a glove.

Franson doesn't move well enough to excel in the Canucks up-tempo system IMO. I would take a flyer on him for a 3rd rd pick or marginal prospect but that's about it...

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12-19-2012, 08:50 AM
  #308
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Originally Posted by Seventeen Twos View Post
Leafs fan here .. at the current moment Luo is top 5

That said, it is very difficult to predict how long he will stay there.. comparable to the Brodeur scenario of today.
i disagree that luongo is still a top 5 goalie in the league. i guess it depends on how you quantify it but i think over and beyond stats age and contract HAVE to be factored in. i recognize that at 33 luongo could easily have 5 solid seasons left but in comparison to someone like quick or price it factors in.

statistically (as per nhl.com).....

top 5 gaa average:

1. elliot
2. quick
3. schneider
4. lundqvist
5. halak

16. luongo

elliot, schneider, and halak played less then 50 games, so not using goalies who played less then 50 games (luongo played 55) luongo is still 11th in gaa average.

top 5 save percentage;

1. elliot
2. schneider
3. smith
4. lundqvist
5. quick

12. luongo

again, taking out goalies with less then 55 games luongo is 9th.

top 5 goalies in wins;

1. rinne
2. fleury
3. lundqvist
4. smith
5. quick

14. luongo

taking out goalies with less then 50 games luongo is still 14th.

top 5 in shutouts;

1. quick
2. elliot
3. lundvist
4. smith
5. howard

12. luongo

removing goalies playing less then 50 games luongo is tied for 10th.

so i guess what im saying is that despite having really good numbers that are far better then anything the leafs can even come close to luongo is not really a top 5 goalie in the league. id say he is barely top 10 goalie and at 33 it is more likely that he is going to decline rather then improve. i would say that his numbers have not really dipped statistically but rather there is a higher caliber of goaltender in the nhl today (just not on the leafs ).

again its difficult to go strictly by one year of stats as i think it is safe to say that elliot probably wont repeat his numbers from last year and neither will smith. on the flip side there are a lot of younger up and coming goalies who probably will be at the top 5 in goalie stats for many years such as quick and price. also lundvist and rinne are consistently solid.

imo statistically luongo is 10-15th in the nhl but if given a choice i would put him in the 6-10 range of goalies who i personally would want on the leafs. the number one issue i have is the contract. ignoring the contract though there are still easily 5 goalies i would take on my team over luongo whether it is just personal preference, stats, age, contract, or a combination on of all of them.


Last edited by spiny norman: 12-19-2012 at 09:25 AM. Reason: qmep
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Old
12-19-2012, 09:14 AM
  #309
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Originally Posted by gabeliscious View Post
top 5 save percentage;

1. elliot
2. schneider
3. smith
4. lundqvist
5. quick

12. luongo

again, taking out goalies with less then 55 games luongo is 9th.
Save% is kind of the big stat for me...as in the most important goalie stat and none of the others are that close...who cares how many shutouts a goalie gets? You are 100% correct that it is really dumb to base things off of one year. If that's how the real world worked, the Canucks would have traded Daniel and Henrik for Crosby and Malkin when they had the chance.

1. Elliot - Luongo better 2 out of 3 years, 4 out of 5.
2. Schneider - Luongo better 0 out of 3 years, 2 out of 5 including one a no contest...0 out of 3 is why Schneider will get a chance when the NHL starts again.
3. Smith - Luongo better 2 out of 3 years, 4 out of 5.
4. Lundqvist - Luongo better 1 out of 3 years, 3 out of 5.
5. Quick - Luongo better 2 out of 3 years, 3 out of 5.

Others:
-Price - Luongo better 3 out of 3, 5 out of 5...Price having been better 0 out of 5 years is why I can't rate him above Luongo.
-Rinne - Luongo better 1 out of 3, 3 out of 5 including one no contest (Rinne played 1 game five years ago)
-Vokoun - Luongo 2 out of 3, 2 out of 5.
-Kiprusoff - Luongo 1 out of 3, 3 out of 5.
-Ward - Luongo 2 out of 3, 4 out of 5.

Of course age, future projection, magnitude of wins, and "proveness" matter. That's why Quick, due to his age, is ahead of Luongo despite not being better most years while Vokoun goes below. In regards to magnitude of wins, when Kiprusoff beats Luongo its usually fairly close but Luongo beats Kipper in seasons by huge amounts (like .15-.20). In terms of proveness guys like Schneider get killed because despite putting up amazing stats (better than all the goalies on this list) he hasn't played that many games while a guy like Price is a similar age but has played a lot of games.

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12-19-2012, 10:06 AM
  #310
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Hey Sully you're pretty good at this, so I ask what is the relative average of both shots faced and save made if both goaltenders are playing the same amount of games.

I know 600 is quite a bit, but on average the Canucks allow 30 shots a game against so those 12 or so games start to really pull those two numbers together.


I'm not trying to bring Price's value down, I'm just curious if both goalies are playing the same amount are facing similar amounts of shots and still seeing the same amount of statiscal gap between the two.
I personally think Price is a great goalie and has the potential to be just as good as Luongo over his career but so far Price has only come close. Which is partially why I think save for Hank, Lu would be the 2nd best goaltender in the Eastern Conference
Lu is definitely more proven then Carey Price is. No argument about that here, but taking into account Price's youth, talent level, and where the Jets are in their rebuild....I'd take Price every time. However, Price isn't an option and if given a chance I'd trade for Luongo in a heart beat regardless.

He's still elite, we're talking top five either way here.

EDIT: As or your question...

Over 55games this season, Luongo faced 1577 shots. By dividing his games played, by the shots he faced we can see a rough average of how many shots he faced per game. that equals out to 28.7 shots per game roughly thirty, like you said. Price played ten more games, so multiply that by the 28.7 and you get 287 more shots. You add that to the 1577 and you get 1864...so basically Price faced fifty more shots over the same amount of games last season.

However, shots alone does not tell the full story. Most goaltenders are pretty solid when stopping the first shot. Its the second, third, fourth so one that get put in the net a lot of the time. I'll take the LA kings for example. I know alot of people will say that Jonathan Quick won the kings the cup, and do not get me wrong he was pretty spectacular, however I would say that in combination with their amazing goaltending they were amazing at eliminating the scoring chances and rebounds. In fact they did it so well that they effectively rendered Vancouver's PP useless and even scored a pack of shorthanded goals and went on the break away again...until bieksa tripped him. It got to the point where we all groaned to see Vancouver on the PP.

So in conclusion, I would think a more telling stat would be to see how successful a goalie was at stopping legitimate scoring chances, and how many they face in a season. We all watch hockey, we all know how many of those point shots get gloved or cleared away before anything comes of it. Best way to do that, I think, is to see how good a goalie is on the second, third, fourth shot, you get the idea.


Last edited by sully1410: 12-19-2012 at 10:37 AM.
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Old
12-19-2012, 10:25 AM
  #311
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Lu is definitely more proven then Carey Price is. No argument about that here, but taking into account Price's youth, talent level, and where the Jets are in their rebuild....I'd take Price every time. However, Price isn't an option and if given a chance I'd trade for Luongo in a heart beat regardless.

He's still elite, we're talking top five either way here.
Most, if not everyone would take Price as well. He would cost a ton more than Luongo though, if he were to be available.

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12-19-2012, 10:38 AM
  #312
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Most, if not everyone would take Price as well. He would cost a ton more than Luongo though, if he were to be available.
Absolutely. The fact that he's twenty five and has held down the starting gig in a very offensive montreal, and been quite good at doing it shows that he is a huge talent.

Now go back and read my edit

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12-19-2012, 10:45 AM
  #313
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I don't even think that Vancouver should even trade Luongo tbh, not until Schneider has started at least 50% of the games.

The biggest weakness in Corey's game is his inability to control his rebounds. He doesn't try to absorb it like a lot of other goalies do, he just lets them bounce off and go god knows where. Its probably why his SV% is as high as it is. Lots of times, and every hockey fan has seen this, where though goalie tries to cover or catch or just hold onto it and it slowly trickles in. The fact that Schneider just deflects it, will result in a higher success rate. When was the last time that you tried to catch something going 80-90+ mph?

I think if AV and Gillis are truly serious about CS being the goalie of the future of the team, they really need to take as look at their defensive stylings and really eliminate that rebound. Or get Corey to eliminate them more himself.

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12-19-2012, 11:14 AM
  #314
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I don't even think that Vancouver should even trade Luongo tbh, not until Schneider has started at least 50% of the games.

The biggest weakness in Corey's game is his inability to control his rebounds. He doesn't try to absorb it like a lot of other goalies do, he just lets them bounce off and go god knows where. Its probably why his SV% is as high as it is. Lots of times, and every hockey fan has seen this, where though goalie tries to cover or catch or just hold onto it and it slowly trickles in. The fact that Schneider just deflects it, will result in a higher success rate. When was the last time that you tried to catch something going 80-90+ mph?

I think if AV and Gillis are truly serious about CS being the goalie of the future of the team, they really need to take as look at their defensive stylings and really eliminate that rebound. Or get Corey to eliminate them more himself.
He's also pretty bad at playing the puck, not that we are really used to having a good puck playing goalie anyways.

Would like to know how CS responds to a losing streak and some adversity.

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12-19-2012, 11:39 AM
  #315
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He's also pretty bad at playing the puck, not that we are really used to having a good puck playing goalie anyways.

Would like to know how CS responds to a losing streak and some adversity.
How did I forget that? God he's terrible at playing the puck!

But so is Lu, so thats nothing new.

I'd like to see that as well, but also...not? I think their best shot at winning the cup is with both goalies, so I strongly believe that they should definitely have them splitting time throughout the season and through the playoffs. Its a great strength to have.

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12-19-2012, 11:41 AM
  #316
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Absolutely. The fact that he's twenty five and has held down the starting gig in a very offensive montreal, and been quite good at doing it shows that he is a huge talent.

Now go back and read my edit
Price also has a much higher cap hit.

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12-19-2012, 11:42 AM
  #317
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Price also has a much higher cap hit.
At this point in their careers, Price is also much better.

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12-19-2012, 11:44 AM
  #318
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At this point in their careers, Price is also much better.
Not so much.

If you look at my break down, Luongo is better and more proven. Thats to be expected though, Price is only 25. Which is why more people would like him on their team.

However the point is moot...because last I checked, Price is not available.

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12-19-2012, 11:56 AM
  #319
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Not so much.

If you look at my break down, Luongo is better and more proven. Thats to be expected though, Price is only 25. Which is why more people would like him on their team.

However the point is moot...because last I checked, Price is not available.
Last i checked, due to this piece of **** lockout...nobody is.

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12-19-2012, 12:06 PM
  #320
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Last i checked, due to this piece of **** lockout...nobody is.
DAMNIT! I totally forgot that there wasn't hockey going on right now. Thanks for clarifying that


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12-19-2012, 12:14 PM
  #321
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DAMNIT! I totally forgot that there wasn't hockey going on right now. Thanks for clarifying that

Oh sorry....did i say something obvious? Kind of like saying "last i checked...Price isn't available".

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12-19-2012, 12:37 PM
  #322
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Oh sorry....did i say something obvious? Kind of like saying "last i checked...Price isn't available".
Well...if you ask palindrom...

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12-19-2012, 12:56 PM
  #323
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Well...if you ask palindrom...
Ah yes....any goalie who makes more thamn 500K should be traded.

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12-19-2012, 02:21 PM
  #324
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Ah yes....any goalie who makes more thamn 500K should be traded.
Ok so Luongo? Luongo.

Make your best offer. Just go. Don't even think about it...just go from the gut.

Do it.

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12-19-2012, 04:29 PM
  #325
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At this point in their careers, Price is also much better.
Price is ten times the goalie Luongo is.

He's just happened to have the inferior SV% in each and every of his 5 seasons.

Let it soak in. Then get back to me.

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