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Old
12-19-2012, 10:14 PM
  #451
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I think with McNally, the Canucks saw a guy with three or four good to very good attributes, and then a bunch of questions. He had good height, very good skating, and very good point production and energy / desire for the game. The questions about when he'd be ready for pro, his slight build, and his possible lack of defensive skill and conscience---those are why he was a fourth-rounder instead of maybe a second.

The strong points made him an excellent choice for his draft position, IMO. The odds against him are huge as a fourth, but if you can find a package of projectable pro skills or attributes there, your guy at least has a chance to work out. I think the questions about the (largely unknown) fine points of his play at this time--before ANY pro coaching or experience--are too picky. McNally has some good second-round skills, IMO, and now it's time for the Canucks to work on the whole package.

Who knows if he'll ever be a Canuck? I'm guessing that he skates, passes, and sees the ice better than Connauton; but he's weaker, less physical, and doesn't have as good a shot. Will he turn out to have Connauton's slow-learner problems with pivots and coverage, or will he have a small measure of Tanev's genius in that regard? In any case, he will probably be more offensively-gifted than Tanev. Whatever the eventual result with him, his known skills makes him a worthy fourth-rounder, and the rest is up to God and Gillis.

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12-19-2012, 10:21 PM
  #452
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Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
You still get Taylor Ellington, Daniel Rahimi and Alex Friesen's when you look for smart, safe players...

I would prefer Gillis swing for the fences with highly skilled, dynamic guys like McNally than draft safe players with limited upside. Detroit won championships on the backs of 2 high risk, high reward late rd picks in Datsyuk and Zetterberg...

Gillis went with the safer Sauve over the riskier Justin Schultz in the 2nd rd 4 years ago and that could haunt this franchise for over a decade. Playing a 'safe' game doesn't translate to it being a 'safe' pick.
Giving Gillis the BoD, he only arrived in April and likely wasn't involved in any scouting outside the 1st round. Ones things for sure the Canucks seem to have learned a few lessons -

No more 1st round picks on guys like Smith and White. Wasting 1st rounders on reaches with limited offensive up side. Now we just need to stop the reaches in the 2nd round for guys like Mallet. I'm not adverse to the occasional flyer on someone like Grenier, a potential difference maker with his skill and size boom/bust.

Focus has moved off big Dmen with questionable IQs (less than the sum of their parts) towards smart Dmen with good skill sets (better than the sum of their parts). I can't see us take a Sauve over a Schultz again (hopefully).

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12-19-2012, 10:22 PM
  #453
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Or it could be pointing out that McNally chooses to rush first, thereby reducing the need to pass first. He can pass, but will he be able to rely on it as a primary option?
I'm sorry but again, why are we forcing McNally to become a pass first player? Why must it be his primary option? As a few people have said, rushing is his strength, that he should stick to his strength and adapt his game around it. You seem content to "beat" his advantages out of him.

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I see the harm in taking chances if that is all this team is seen to do. There are steady guys, but none yet that have converted their games to the NHL level. Until such time, we have to question even the steadier options. By comparison, the rover seems even more out of place. Look at how people are viewing Connauten now: His NHL upside is very much in doubt because he's seen as a one trick pony. Does he have a defensive game to fall back on? Nope. The same could happen with McNally.

I'd rather the Canucks pack the system with high percentage, smart prospects than take chances on rovers that will have difficulty adjusting. But that's me.
Any 4th to 7th round pick is going to be considered as "taking a chance." As I've said, sometimes teams hit with their selections by taking chances on players and sometimes they miss in these late rounds.

But let me ask you this, are you lamenting taking Corrado? Because he too had considerable concern about his defensive decision making when he was drafted and was known to skate with the puck ice quite often, much more often then he does now. He was very much a risk taker, a project. He was a small PMD who liked to rush and had defensive concerns, the exact type of player you said you would have avoided selecting. However, he adapted and learned to play a better defensive game. He credits his old defensive coach Jeff Beukeboom in helping him develop into a steady D-man that he is today. Corrado so far is looking like a hit that may have been overlooked under your criteria .

Experience and coaching help develop these players and work around/with their flaws. I simply don't believe McNally is done developing. But we can agree to disagree.

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Old
12-19-2012, 10:42 PM
  #454
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
What?

The only player I'd even consider over Jensen from that draft (taken outside the top 10) is Baertschi, and even then I think we needed the size and natural finishing Jensen provides more than a dynamic play maker (although Baertschi with kesler would be some kinda nice).

I don't think you can make a case for any pick 10-40 in that draft that I'd take over Jensen at this point.
Armia has been good in the SM-Liiga for the last three years and was one of the best Finns at the WJC last year. However outside of a few of those WJC games I haven't had much of a chance to see him play, hence 'maybe'. I like to withhold judgements on whose a better prospect until I can see both players play, so as of right now I'm not sure who I'd rather have.

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12-19-2012, 10:45 PM
  #455
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Originally Posted by me2 View Post
Giving Gillis the BoD, he only arrived in April and likely wasn't involved in any scouting outside the 1st round. Ones things for sure the Canucks seem to have learned a few lessons -

No more 1st round picks on guys like Smith and White. Wasting 1st rounders on reaches with limited offensive up side. Now we just need to stop the reaches in the 2nd round for guys like Mallet. I'm not adverse to the occasional flyer on someone like Grenier, a potential difference maker with his skill and size boom/bust.

Focus has moved off big Dmen with questionable IQs (less than the sum of their parts) towards smart Dmen with good skill sets (better than the sum of their parts). I can't see us take a Sauve over a Schultz again (hopefully).
I dunno if the Nucks have really 'learned' to not draft reaches in the 1st round, as MG seems to have had that down pat ever since his first pick - and done well in that regard too, even though I do agree with the principles you laid out anyway. If you're talking about the scouts though then maybe, yeah...

Now we just need to learn to take smart forwards with our mid-rounders. Hasn't that always been the mantra? Character, hockey sense and skill.

It seems though that we're finally picking up on identifying good, smart D-men with greater consistency, and hopefully this will soon extend to the forwards as well.

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12-19-2012, 10:53 PM
  #456
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For forwards we seem to be looking to build a team of power forwards. With the acquisition of Kassian and picks like Grenier, Mallet, Jensen, etc. this seems evident. Size seems to be a huge for forwards at least.

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12-19-2012, 10:59 PM
  #457
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Regardless of where they are drafted, I feel prospects have shown everything they have by age 21 - no amount of coaching or development will help after that... so we should judge them on whatever criteria and assumptions we have at age 21, and not pay any more attention to them.

S_C

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Old
12-19-2012, 11:36 PM
  #458
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
You still get Taylor Ellington, Daniel Rahimi and Alex Friesen's when you look for smart, safe players...

I would prefer Gillis swing for the fences with highly skilled, dynamic guys like McNally than draft safe players with limited upside. Detroit won championships on the backs of 2 high risk, high reward late rd picks in Datsyuk and Zetterberg...

Gillis went with the safer Sauve over the riskier Justin Schultz in the 2nd rd 4 years ago and that could haunt this franchise for over a decade. Playing a 'safe' game doesn't translate to it being a 'safe' pick.
Can't blame Gillis for Sauve over Schultz. Every team passed on Schultz, Sauve was highly touted.

Not to mention he was on the job a month by the time of the draft.

Last but not least Schultz chose to play where he wanted, I imagine since he didn't choose Vancouver when he had the chance, he would have done the same thing to us as he did with the Ducks.

Edit. Missed me2's post that I basically just paraphrased.

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12-19-2012, 11:42 PM
  #459
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Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
Armia has been good in the SM-Liiga for the last three years and was one of the best Finns at the WJC last year. However outside of a few of those WJC games I haven't had much of a chance to see him play, hence 'maybe'. I like to withhold judgements on whose a better prospect until I can see both players play, so as of right now I'm not sure who I'd rather have.
SEL is a tougher league than SM-LIiga by all accounts.

Jensen is putting up similar totals to Armia in a much tougher league this year that he had to readapt too.

I found Armia to be a floater. That's why I wouldn't move Jensen for him.

Baertchi is the only guy that's close for me.

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Old
12-19-2012, 11:45 PM
  #460
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Originally Posted by Southern_Canuck View Post
Regardless of where they are drafted, I feel prospects have shown everything they have by age 21 - no amount of coaching or development will help after that... so we should judge them on whatever criteria and assumptions we have at age 21, and not pay any more attention to them.

S_C
I'm taking this as sarcasm, considering you mentioned that we were being to hard on Friesen a page ago.

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Old
12-19-2012, 11:53 PM
  #461
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
SEL is a tougher league than SM-LIiga by all accounts.

Jensen is putting up similar totals to Armia in a much tougher league this year that he had to readapt too.

I found Armia to be a floater. That's why I wouldn't move Jensen for him.

Baertchi is the only guy that's close for me.
I think you greatly overestimate the difference in quality between the two leagues. My opinion is simply that the two prospects are close enough in quality/development that I would want to watch them both play more consistently before making a definitive determination. If you've watched Armia play enough to make a confident decision then all the power to you.

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12-20-2012, 12:03 AM
  #462
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Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
I think you greatly overestimate the difference in quality between the two leagues. My opinion is simply that the two prospects are close enough in quality/development that I would want to watch them both play more consistently before making a definitive determination. If you've watched Armia play enough to make a confident decision then all the power to you.
The difference is pretty big. Players that are point per game in SM-liiga usually put up around .6PPG in the SEL.

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12-20-2012, 12:10 AM
  #463
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Wait, but if you can't even handle the physicality in the AHL, how could you expect to be able to handle it in the big league?
Saying that if you can come over when you are bit more mature and stronger, you probably have better chance of handling the hits you get in the NA game. For example, if you give Jensen a couple of more years you are going to get a far more physically developed player and likely a player that can better deal with the tougher play on the smaller rinks. You look at a player like Rodin and you might wonder if getting him over was the best idea.

Moreover, I think the physicality in the AHL is probably as great as in the NHL. You get a lot of plodders down there that can bang bodies around (and not much else) . Difference is mostly in the skill level b/w NHL and AHL IMO.

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12-20-2012, 12:11 AM
  #464
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
The difference is pretty big. Players that are point per game in SM-liiga usually put up around .6PPG in the SEL.
The way I understand it is stats can get inflated in SM-liiga due to the more open, uptempo playing style, but the talent level is comparable in both leagues. The talent does tend to be more diluted than the SEL however due to the two extra teams.

I really like Jensen and have been very high on him since day 1, I'm just saying I'd like to see some other prospects play more before I claim Jensen to be superior. Really wish Denmark was in the WJC so we could see him go up against the best players his age again.

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12-20-2012, 12:12 AM
  #465
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Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
The way I understand it is stats can get inflated in SM-liiga due to the more open, uptempo playing style, but the talent level is comparable in both leagues. The talent does tend to be more diluted than the SEL however due to the two extra teams.

I really like Jensen and have been very high on him since day 1, I'm just saying I'd like to see some other prospects play more before I claim Jensen to be superior. Really wish Denmark was in the WJC so we could see him go up against the best players his age again.
Well, he certainly outproduced Armia in the last WJC, by a notable margin too.

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12-20-2012, 12:16 AM
  #466
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Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
The way I understand it is stats can get inflated in SM-liiga due to the more open, uptempo playing style, but the talent level is comparable in both leagues. The talent does tend to be more diluted than the SEL however due to the two extra teams.

I really like Jensen and have been very high on him since day 1, I'm just saying I'd like to see some other prospects play more before I claim Jensen to be superior. Really wish Denmark was in the WJC so we could see him go up against the best players his age again.
I can get on board with that.

My original point was that at this point in time there isn't anyone taken after the top 10 that I'd want more than Jensen.

The longer you wait the better idea you'll have, so I understand your reasoning.

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12-20-2012, 12:57 AM
  #467
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Sweatt just got a major hit to the head and last I checked he wasn't a "euro". Concussion in the AHL have nothing to do with your nationality. Lots of Canadian players have their careers ruined by them too.

Baertschi's injury history is a big question mark but I don't see how that follows into the rest of the argument about nationalities and what not. He's a smaller player that goes into tough areas, that's what happens to those types of guys and you have to be a very durable player to withstand it. Is he?
Difference is that lot of North American players come up thru Junior hockey and thus have to play in smaller rinks in a much more physical style. Right now, some Euros are coming over to play Junior just to get use to the kind of high intensity, highly physical nature of NA hockey.

You take someone like Rodin and its a major adjustment to playing here as compared to Swedish Junior hockey. What I'm saying is that it might have been better if you had given someone like Rodin more time to muscle up and develop his game before he played pro hockey in the AHL.

Sure everyone gets concussions and injuries, but slighter Europeans who have never played Junior hockey might be more likely to get hurt than battle hardened CHL players (and even here the switch from Junior to pro can be a physically daunting one)

As far as Beartschi goes, I think he is a player with a target on his back at the AHL level ( much like Tanev). Games I see him play he gets a rough time. He has to get use to pro hockey but you wonder if he might be better off developing in the Swiss League or somewhere else. To me, he doesn't seem very durable and if you are Calgary you might want to put him in a less exposed position. Baertschi has, I believe Zetterburg type talent and probably would have been better of following the course of Zetterburg by developing in Europe and then going directly to the NHL. You wonder if a player like Zetteburg would have developed as well if he had come over younger and banged around in the poorly officiated AHL. When you are that much more talented the rest of the League, teams will try to find ways of slowing you down. And that includes trying to nail you.

All in all I guess I'm saying a very ok with Jensen developing in Sweden. Let him fill out, let him get more awareness, and let him develop his skills. I think a lot of people have made this point and I think they are correct. He got a head injury in the AHL last year and if had gotten another one this year it could have been disastrous for his development. Trying to battle test players at the AHL level while they are still physically developing just for the sake of battle testing them doesn't seem all that wise to me.

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Old
12-20-2012, 01:00 AM
  #468
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Well, he certainly outproduced Armia in the last WJC, by a notable margin too.
Not really. They were both PPG. Jensen had 2 goals and 4 assists in 6 games, and Armia had 5 goals and 2 assists in 7 games. They seem to be very comparable prospects at this point.

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Old
12-20-2012, 03:12 AM
  #469
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Goaltenders:
Eddie Lack - Decent NHL Starter
Joe Cannata - AHL starter/NHL Backup

Defensemen:
- Chris Tanev - 2nd Pair D-man
- Frank Corrado - 2nd Pair D-man (Think)
- Yann Sauve - Depth D-man (Think Alberts/Rome)
- Kevin Connaution - 2nd/3rd Pair + PP QB (Think Ehrhoff's Role when he was here)
- Henrik Tommernes - Depth D-man/AHL top Pair (Think Alex Sulzer)
- Patrick NcNally - 3rd Pair OFD (Think Chris Campoli)

Forwards:
- Nick Jensen - 1st/2nd Liner (Borderline 1st Liner)
- Zack Kassian - Good 2nd Line PWF (Think Scott Hartnell)
- Brendan Gaunce - Good Two-way 2nd Line Center (Think Brooks Laich)
- Jordan Schroeder - 2nd Line Forward (Dangerous Scoring/Playmaking ability)
- Anton Rodin - 2nd/3rd line tweener forward (Raymond/Higgins)
- Alexander Mallet - 3rd/4th line Physical/Grinding TWF (Think Maxim Lappierre)

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12-20-2012, 04:39 AM
  #470
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Originally Posted by Smashian Kassian View Post
Goaltenders:
Eddie Lack - Decent NHL Starter
Joe Cannata - AHL starter/NHL Backup

Defensemen:
- Chris Tanev - 2nd Pair D-man
- Frank Corrado - 2nd Pair D-man (Think)
- Yann Sauve - Depth D-man (Think Alberts/Rome)
- Kevin Connaution - 2nd/3rd Pair + PP QB (Think Ehrhoff's Role when he was here)
- Henrik Tommernes - Depth D-man/AHL top Pair (Think Alex Sulzer)
- Patrick NcNally - 3rd Pair OFD (Think Chris Campoli)

Forwards:
- Nick Jensen - 1st/2nd Liner (Borderline 1st Liner)
- Zack Kassian - Good 2nd Line PWF (Think Scott Hartnell)
- Brendan Gaunce - Good Two-way 2nd Line Center (Think Brooks Laich)
- Jordan Schroeder - 2nd Line Forward (Dangerous Scoring/Playmaking ability)
- Anton Rodin - 2nd/3rd line tweener forward (Raymond/Higgins)
- Alexander Mallet - 3rd/4th line Physical/Grinding TWF (Think Maxim Lappierre)
This is all their absolute high ends for the most part and you are being too optimistic overall.

If Sauve becomes Aaron Rome I'd be estactic, but I don't think he will be as decent as Rome was, which is sad.

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12-20-2012, 10:09 AM
  #471
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This is all their absolute high ends for the most part and you are being too optimistic overall.

If Sauve becomes Aaron Rome I'd be estactic, but I don't think he will be as decent as Rome was, which is sad.
Discussion point: Would you say Sauve has a better set of tools to work with than Rome?

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12-20-2012, 10:20 AM
  #472
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I'm sorry but again, why are we forcing McNally to become a pass first player? Why must it be his primary option? As a few people have said, rushing is his strength, that he should stick to his strength and adapt his game around it. You seem content to "beat" his advantages out of him.


The advantage will be beat out of him when he gets to the Canucks. Rushing the puck frequently can be seen as adding undue risk to the play. Passing the puck is preferred. You can see it on this team when the forwards constantly blow the zone looking for that pass. It's a part of their style. They play "on top" of the opposition defense as strategy.


It's not about me wanting to take his advantage away from him, it's recognizing that this advantage will be curbed if/when he gets here. So why not try and draft a player that plays that way in the first place?




Quote:
Any 4th to 7th round pick is going to be considered as "taking a chance." As I've said, sometimes teams hit with their selections by taking chances on players and sometimes they miss in these late rounds.

But let me ask you this, are you lamenting taking Corrado? Because he too had considerable concern about his defensive decision making when he was drafted and was known to skate with the puck ice quite often, much more often then he does now. He was very much a risk taker, a project. He was a small PMD who liked to rush and had defensive concerns, the exact type of player you said you would have avoided selecting. However, he adapted and learned to play a better defensive game. He credits his old defensive coach Jeff Beukeboom in helping him develop into a steady D-man that he is today. Corrado so far is looking like a hit that may have been overlooked under your criteria .

Experience and coaching help develop these players and work around/with their flaws. I simply don't believe McNally is done developing. But we can agree to disagree.



Assuming McNally develops to even end up where Corrado is now. This is far from a given. He will have to curb a primary instinct of his to get there. Many don't make that adjustment.


Maybe using this different strategy at the draft misses a Corrado. However, with those misses other things are "hits". Perhaps they pick up a Nyquist/Tatar/Oullete instead? I just prefer the high IQ players it seems.

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12-20-2012, 10:44 AM
  #473
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I dunno if the Nucks have really 'learned' to not draft reaches in the 1st round, as MG seems to have had that down pat ever since his first pick - and done well in that regard too, even though I do agree with the principles you laid out anyway. If you're talking about the scouts though then maybe, yeah...

Now we just need to learn to take smart forwards with our mid-rounders. Hasn't that always been the mantra? Character, hockey sense and skill.

It seems though that we're finally picking up on identifying good, smart D-men with greater consistency, and hopefully this will soon extend to the forwards as well.



Except that it won't. The Canucks have placed a premium on PWFs and PMDs. So expect the Canucks to continue to reach for that bigger forward, especially early in the draft where they seem to target their forwards.



I think the Canucks need to simplify their process further: Just draft players that you think will make the NHL. That's it. Looking at characteristics like is said player a PWF or a PMD is nice, but when you have big question marks on your ability to produce NHL talent in general, one would think that you would try to take aesthetics out of the equation.



This is something NSH does well IMO. They continually target players that have a strong chance of conversion, especially on D. Their forwards tend to be 2way capable, and their Dmen poised and good defensively. Needless to say, their record speaks for itself. Granted, the downside for them is that they haven't been able to produce high-end offensive forwards because of this, but I'd take that trade off as a Canucks fan any day.

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12-20-2012, 10:48 AM
  #474
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Except that it won't. The Canucks have placed a premium on PWFs and PMDs. So expect the Canucks to continue to reach for that bigger forward, especially early in the draft where they seem to target their forwards.



I think the Canucks need to simplify their process further: Just draft players that you think will make the NHL. That's it. Looking at characteristics like is said player a PWF or a PMD is nice, but when you have big question marks on your ability to produce NHL talent in general, one would think that you would try to take aesthetics out of the equation.



This is something NSH does well IMO. They continually target players that have a strong chance of conversion, especially on D. Their forwards tend to be 2way capable, and their Dmen poised and good defensively. Needless to say, their record speaks for itself. Granted, the downside for them is that they haven't been able to produce high-end offensive forwards because of this, but I'd take that trade off as a Canucks fan any day.
Sorry, it's early and this coffee is terrible, what exactly do you mean by conversion?

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12-20-2012, 11:12 AM
  #475
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Sorry, it's early and this coffee is terrible, what exactly do you mean by conversion?
Convert to an NHLer I'd assume.

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