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Red Sox/MLB 2012 Thread Part XXI-Maybe a Banner Year

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Old
12-19-2012, 06:02 PM
  #626
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I feel like Morales is more valuable than Vargas, but I guess the Angels had too many guys/not enough at-bats, so I guess they got a piece that might help, but I envisioned a bigger return for Morales.

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12-19-2012, 06:08 PM
  #627
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Sox and Pirates talking Hanrahan. I'd love to see Hanrahan here to close.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jo...loser-hanrahan

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12-19-2012, 06:13 PM
  #628
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is he a proven enough closer?

i mean, he closed games, but for the pirates! the pirates!

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12-19-2012, 06:26 PM
  #629
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He throws hard and has been successful for a few years now, but his command fell off a cliff this past year.

He would be a good addition at the right price. My roommate (a Pirates fan) isn't the highest on him- he likes him, but he is more than content going with Jason Grilli as a closer. That is telling to me.

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12-19-2012, 06:29 PM
  #630
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Originally Posted by robert terwilliger View Post
is he a proven enough closer?

i mean, he closed games, but for the pirates! the pirates!
I think he might be a better option than Bailey, IMO.

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12-19-2012, 07:08 PM
  #631
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Thanks, but no thanks.

The problem, in my mind, is that a closer is critical to a team's success. If the team is not going to be successful, the value of their closer goes way down. I think the Pirates could find a much better deal than what the Red Sox should be willing to offer.

That being said, I like Hanrahan. He's a good closer, and will be an asset for a good team. I've heard the Dodgers rumors for a while. They have a lot of pitching, and with the surplus of starters, I'd be surprised if they don't add at least a few pieces to their bullpen. They already have Jensen, League and Guerra. Hanrahan would make games a lot shorter for them. They just have to hope Beckett doesn't spoil it for everyone.

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12-19-2012, 08:30 PM
  #632
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we dealt for Bailey, we gotta at least see what he can do for a *hopefully* full year of being healthy.

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12-19-2012, 10:49 PM
  #633
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I've been a big advocate of finding better arms in the pen, especially a closer. If Bailey is healthy then great... they can switch off being setup and closing. But banking on Bailey being healthy for a full season isn't a smart plan IMO.

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12-20-2012, 12:13 AM
  #634
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I've been a big advocate of finding better arms in the pen, especially a closer. If Bailey is healthy then great... they can switch off being setup and closing. But banking on Bailey being healthy for a full season isn't a smart plan IMO.
They trade wasn't a smart plan. But now we gotta live with it. Hopefully he can do something because when he's healthy, he's got good stuff.

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12-20-2012, 08:01 AM
  #635
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Originally Posted by robert terwilliger View Post
is he a proven enough closer?

i mean, he closed games, but for the pirates! the pirates!
So you're saying he'll feel right at home here closing for a 70-75 win team?

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12-20-2012, 08:04 AM
  #636
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Originally Posted by 24giovanni View Post
Sox and Pirates talking Hanrahan. I'd love to see Hanrahan here to close.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jo...loser-hanrahan
This move would be pointless. The team is going to be terrible, so why go out and give up assets for a guy who is going to be looking for a big contract or going to walk at the end of the year? Although it makes some sense when you figure how infatuated this FO is about sandwich picks.

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12-20-2012, 08:10 AM
  #637
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They trade wasn't a smart plan. But now we gotta live with it. Hopefully he can do something because when he's healthy, he's got good stuff.
Why? Before the season started, Reddick was projecting to be a backup and nothing more for that team. The multiple injuries they had at the position aside, you always move a spare part to fill a gaping hole. Just because the guy went on to have a decent HR total, and Bailey got hurt, it doesn't mean they wouldn't make that trade every time.

If you want to be critical of them on the deal, I'd say it would be more logical to give them crap for thinking a that guy like Bailey (with his injury history) would stay healthy. Not for them moving Reddick, since he wasn't going to start on that team.

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12-20-2012, 09:40 AM
  #638
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Originally Posted by LSCII View Post
This move would be pointless. The team is going to be terrible, so why go out and give up assets for a guy who is going to be looking for a big contract or going to walk at the end of the year? Although it makes some sense when you figure how infatuated this FO is about sandwich picks.
Hey, we agree on something!

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12-20-2012, 10:10 AM
  #639
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Why? Before the season started, Reddick was projecting to be a backup and nothing more for that team. The multiple injuries they had at the position aside, you always move a spare part to fill a gaping hole. Just because the guy went on to have a decent HR total, and Bailey got hurt, it doesn't mean they wouldn't make that trade every time.

If you want to be critical of them on the deal, I'd say it would be more logical to give them crap for thinking a that guy like Bailey (with his injury history) would stay healthy. Not for them moving Reddick, since he wasn't going to start on that team.
Reddick might have been projected to be a backup last year but not indefinitely -- he always had the potential to do what he did in Oakland. And once he did that this was a horrible trade.

People don't like the fact that Reddick isn't a patient hitter but he always had power, and Ross wasn't going to be here forever whatever happened.

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12-20-2012, 10:19 AM
  #640
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Reddick might have been projected to be a backup last year but not indefinitely -- he always had the potential to do what he did in Oakland. And once he did that this was a horrible trade.

People don't like the fact that Reddick isn't a patient hitter but he always had power, and Ross wasn't going to be here forever whatever happened.
You're doing nothing but pulling a Monday morning quarterback. You're looking at it from the reverse, which teams don't have the luxury of doing. At the time, Reddick was going to be a platoon player at best, and more likely a bench player. They moved him for a closer and a replacement for him in Sweeney, and it was the right move. It may not have worked out, but most teams would do the same in a heartbeat.

If you took out the names, and asked most GMs would they move a young player that projects to be a platoon OFer for you for an all star caliber closer and a similar platoon OFer and what do you think the answer would be? This second guessing after one year is nonsensical to me. What happens if Reddick stinks next year and Bailey returns to form? Does that mean the Sox were suddenly right?

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12-20-2012, 10:25 AM
  #641
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It's not Monday morning quarterbacking when I called it at the time. Which I did. The only surprise is that Reddick hit 30 HR's. I was expecting a bit less than that.

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12-20-2012, 10:32 AM
  #642
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It's not Monday morning quarterbacking when I called it at the time. Which I did. The only surprise is that Reddick hit 30 HR's. I was expecting a bit less than that.
Sure it is because you wouldn't be saying anything if he went there and sucked. The only reason you're constantly bringing this up is to stroke your own ego. We get it. You also had a lot to say about the move early in the season but tailed off dramatically....just like Reddick's production last year.

You also keep glossing over the fact that it was the right move, even if it didn't work out.

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12-20-2012, 10:49 AM
  #643
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Your hypothetical doesn't matter because Reddick didn't go elsewhere and suck. And we could have used 30 HR's out of left field this year. Try to deny that. It's not like Crawford's injuries weren't rather obviously going to be an issue by the end of Spring Training.

The fact is that we sacrificed young, cost-controlled depth because we had a guy here on a 1 year contract (Ross). After Ross's contract expired there was (and still is TBH) an opening in right field Reddick could have stepped right into. Add in the fact that Reddick had a ton of natural talent and it didn't take a lot of guessing to see him breaking out to a certain extent if he could finagle enough playing time. Like I said, the 30 HR's surprised me, but it's not like anyone didn't think he had the raw power to hit that many if he could find the ball enough with his bat.

So riddle me this, LSCII. Which would you rather have had. Reddick and no Bailey, or Bailey and Shane Victorino's $13M/year contract? If you can say with a straight face you'd prefer the latter, then maybe this wasn't an absolutely horrible trade. Otherwise it definitely was.

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12-20-2012, 10:54 AM
  #644
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Your hypothetical doesn't matter because Reddick didn't go elsewhere and suck. And we could have used 30 HR's out of left field this year. Try to deny that. It's not like Crawford's injuries weren't rather obviously going to be an issue by the end of Spring Training.

The fact is that we sacrificed young, cost-controlled depth because we had a guy here on a 1 year contract (Ross). After Ross's contract expired there was (and still is TBH) an opening in right field Reddick could have stepped right into. Add in the fact that Reddick had a ton of natural talent and it didn't take a lot of guessing to see him breaking out to a certain extent if he could finagle enough playing time. Like I said, the 30 HR's surprised me, but it's not like anyone didn't think he had the raw power to hit that many if he could find the ball enough with his bat.

So riddle me this, LSCII. Which would you rather have had. Reddick and no Bailey, or Bailey and Shane Victorino's $13M/year contract? If you can say with a straight face you'd prefer the latter, then maybe this wasn't an absolutely horrible trade. Otherwise it definitely was.
There's no denying that the team could have used that type of production. What you can deny is whether or not Reddick would have provided it. He wasn't going to start. He wasn't likely to get anywhere near the playing time he got in Oakland. It's hard to hit 30+ HRs, when you're not starting/not playing. So your example of taking his numbers and extrapolating them over here doesn't hold water because he was not going to get that type of chance right from the jump.

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12-20-2012, 11:04 AM
  #645
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We were using Daniel Nava as our starting LF for most of the year and you think Reddick wouldn't have started?

Come on, LSCII, you need to not let refusing to admit the possibility of you being wrong push you into more and more absurd statements. The trade was a terrible idea that hurt us in the long run and didn't help us in the short run. Accept that and move on.

And the move wasn't "the right thing to do." The right thing to do would have been to retain the services of both Josh Reddick... and Jonathan Papelbon.

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12-20-2012, 11:13 AM
  #646
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This team reminds me of the Florida Panthers last year- went out and got a lot of lower end second liners and third line guys and it worked pretty well.

Sox first four with health stacks up with most- Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia, and Ortiz

best case scenario: 2 guys who finished in top two of MVP voting and still under 30; and the best DH in baseball last year when healthy (biggest concern of the four)

second four- Napoli, Middlebrooks, Gomes, and Drew (these guys all have question marks mostly due to health- but they have done it, permoned well and have something to prove; I had Drew on my APBA team and for 3 years 2007-09 was a beast and still what? 29, 30....sort of an infield version of Ellsbury)

starting pitching

Five guys who can win 12 (likely wont happen but all have in the past two seasons)

Buccholz
Lester
Dempster
Lackey
Doubront

two power arms that can start but certainly add value

Franklin Morales (LH) like him
Ruby Dela Rossa- has a lights out arm

bullpen- lot of questions but lot of good arms

Tazawa- looked great last half- one of few guys
Uehrea
Aceves
Melanson
Bard- biggest question
Bailey-second biggest question

Andrew Miller- can start, throws left and hard, offers value

Rich Hill- poor sob was destroyed by Valentine (jerk0

overall, for a bridge team, I'm going second place and don't forget how great the job Ross did with Atl pitchers

demise premature

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12-20-2012, 11:27 AM
  #647
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Originally Posted by Dojji View Post
We were using Daniel Nava as our starting LF for most of the year and you think Reddick wouldn't have started?

Come on, LSCII, you need to not let refusing to admit the possibility of you being wrong push you into more and more absurd statements. The trade was a terrible idea that hurt us in the long run and didn't help us in the short run. Accept that and move on.

And the move wasn't "the right thing to do." The right thing to do would have been to retain the services of both Josh Reddick... and Jonathan Papelbon.
Stop trying to twist and play games with words to put your own view in a better position. All along I've qualified the argument about the trade as being about that point in time. They had no clue Ellsbury was going to get hurt. They didn't think Crawford was going to miss all that time. When the trade was made, Reddick was a spare part. This projection of the injuries into the argument is irrelevant since it wasn't known when they made the deal. If it had been, they would never have done it.

In terms of the right thing to do, sure it was. They determined they weren't going to keep Paps because of the years and dollars he wanted. To cover for that, they traded an asset that was not likely going to get much playing time for a closer and said assets replacement. Plus they liked another prospect more than him, and felt that Kalish had the higher upside. The deal may have not worked out because of injuries, but again, the logic behind the move was sound. If anything, the reason they got Bailey so cheap was because of his inability to stay healthy. Nobody (aside from the great and powerful seer, Dojji) expected the guy to hit anywhere near the number of HRs he has last year.

Lastly, I'm pretty sure that just because you projected the guy to be a can't miss prospect solely off of your love for OPS+, that doesn't necessarily translate to how the Sox viewed him.

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12-20-2012, 11:38 AM
  #648
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Reddick hit a whopping .215 in the 2nd half and ~.240 overall. Hell of a player. And even if you go by that OPS+ stat, he was barely an above average hitter. He was actually better with us the year before. And Nava wasn't even too far off his OPS number either.

You do that trade 10/10 if you can get back a cost controlled, all star closer.

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12-20-2012, 11:53 AM
  #649
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This team reminds me of the Florida Panthers last year- went out and got a lot of lower end second liners and third line guys and it worked pretty well.

Sox first four with health stacks up with most- Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia, and Ortiz

best case scenario: 2 guys who finished in top two of MVP voting and still under 30; and the best DH in baseball last year when healthy (biggest concern of the four)

second four- Napoli, Middlebrooks, Gomes, and Drew (these guys all have question marks mostly due to health- but they have done it, permoned well and have something to prove; I had Drew on my APBA team and for 3 years 2007-09 was a beast and still what? 29, 30....sort of an infield version of Ellsbury)

starting pitching

Five guys who can win 12 (likely wont happen but all have in the past two seasons)

Buccholz
Lester
Dempster
Lackey
Doubront

two power arms that can start but certainly add value

Franklin Morales (LH) like him
Ruby Dela Rossa- has a lights out arm

bullpen- lot of questions but lot of good arms

Tazawa- looked great last half- one of few guys
Uehrea
Aceves
Melanson
Bard- biggest question
Bailey-second biggest question

Andrew Miller- can start, throws left and hard, offers value

Rich Hill- poor sob was destroyed by Valentine (jerk0

overall, for a bridge team, I'm going second place and don't forget how great the job Ross did with Atl pitchers

demise premature
I tend to agree with this assessment DKH.

As much as I don't love a guy like Victorino or Dumpster, if Lester doesn't kill this team by himself like he almost managed the last two seasons, this isn't a bad team.

- The rotation is decent. No top-flight guys but no clear holes like last season with Cooke and Dice-K. If Lester can pitch like a real #2 and Clay the same, it's probably an above average rotation. Again, no stopper in the group and a terrible playoff rotation, but it's a decent regular season group.

- The lineup is solid. Weak at the bottom with the likes of Gomes, Salty, 2 Flaps, and Drew, but the first 5 is very good. Not great, but very good. I don't love Gomes or 2 Flaps, but if they're good that's a solid lineup

- The bullpen is good. It's not great, but it has some lively arms, plenty of lefties, and no real holes. I'm assuming Bard never makes the team. If he does, well that means there's a hole.

Altogether I'd say this is a minimum 78 win team, reasonable shot at 84-88. With a much better manager and a likely much better clubhouse culture, I'd expect they can remain competitive and entertaining for the majority of the season.

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12-20-2012, 12:04 PM
  #650
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Reddick hit a whopping .215 in the 2nd half and ~.240 overall. Hell of a player. And even if you go by that OPS+ stat, he was barely an above average hitter. He was actually better with us the year before. And Nava wasn't even too far off his OPS number either.

You do that trade 10/10 if you can get back a cost controlled, all star closer.
No you don't. Not when you needed what Reddick could have provided at home.

Look, best case scenario with that trade you're still looking for an RF this year who can provide a bit more production for a lot more money. And that's while ignoring the very real fact that the real answer to the quandary of picking up a top closer involved throwing money at Jonathan Papelbon.

The ONLY way to justify that trade is if either Kalish or Sweeney were your everyday RF. Right now neither one has proven themselves up to the task. Meaning that trading Reddick for Bailey was an exercise in making one hole to fill another one. Sideways progress

We had to sign Victorino because all the reasons to trade a kid like Reddick turned out to be so much nonsense and the franchise got too cute with its resources and focused too much on the 1 year plan.

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