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Lockout V: Take the Long Way Home

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Old
12-20-2012, 04:32 PM
  #526
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Originally Posted by schminksbro View Post
I think they want to not be locked out and told to concede more for every cba.
Then stop trying to figure out ways to get nearly 60% and more of HRR every CBA when your league doesn't have a pot to crap in as far as comparing NHL profit to other major sports, which have a far more equitable HRR split

Maybe, just maybe if you have a system that actually works for the majority of teams, the owners wouldn't be running to press the lockout button after every CBA.

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12-20-2012, 04:33 PM
  #527
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Originally Posted by McLlwain View Post
I don't get it.
You mean Fehr wants revenge for what the league has done to Goodenow?
I didn't say it made sense. But I have trouble believing the vast (or any) majority of the 700 players is in favour of how this has turned out and the stalling tactics used.

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12-20-2012, 04:33 PM
  #528
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Decertify and contract voids will kill the League

If Decertify, the players will file anti-trust suit
- No more Salary Caps
- No more Revenue Sharing
- Non-profitable teams will fold or relocate
- Salaries would rise
- Back to the 80s and 90s we go

Contract Voided:
- Every NHL player up for grabs
- Feeding Frenzy
- Players being sold to the highest bidder

As you all can see these 2 things will hurt our game and franchises

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12-20-2012, 04:37 PM
  #529
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Originally Posted by tantalum View Post
Really, the way the last negotiations went down were their own fault. They refused to acknowledge the situation the league was in and sit down and negotiation. They allowed Goodenow to put forth a strategy that they ultimately didn't agree with and cost them a season. When they finally sat down and negotiated (Linden and Saskin) they negotiated a strong deal for themselves under the framework the league was happy with. That was what Kelly wanted to continue to do...maximize the money for the players under a system the league was happy with. Avoid costing the players millions.

The league was never out to "crush" the union last time either IMO (I don't disagree that in the end it can and likely did become personal and that right now the same thing is happening but at the start it wasn't). They were out to make a fair deal based on current economic conditions. Bob MacKenzie said it best the other day on the radio...you have two difference philosophies (and I'm paraphrasing). The League like most businesses are trying to make a budget based on the here and now. They are starting with a pie and dividing it up. What that division looked like last time has no bearing on what it looks like this time. The players on the other hand can only seem to look at the differences between the two pies. As a result we have the standoff we have. One is a strategy based on business practice and the other based on emotion. The problem is that the players turfed the guy who could approach it as a business in favor of the guy who fans the flames of the passion.


In the end it ought to come down to this for each individual players "is what the league offered by and large fair?" And honestly, I have no idea how they answer no.
Exactly. And if you look at the progression of pro sports, even in the NFL it has basically been:

Free Agency = more than 65% of revenue in salary

which leads to salary cap and slightly reduced player share like 57%

which leads to 50/50 split. Actually less than 50% for the players in NBA and NFL.

Saskin and Linden did a good job IMO since the union was essentially over a barrel. And the league could have pounded it in even more in, but they didn't - which was why that whole 'partnership' rhetoric came out of that last lockout negotiation.

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12-20-2012, 04:38 PM
  #530
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It's not just that the players gave up a lot in 2004 ... it's that Bettman had a blank canvas to do basically whatever he wanted to fix the system and he did such a crappy job that he was complaining again five years later.

There's no reason to trust Bettman's competence in this go round, and it can't be surprising that Fehr and the players really aren't buying in. (There's, of course, less than zero reason to repose any trust in Bettman personally, or in his word -- but that's very old news.)

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12-20-2012, 04:41 PM
  #531
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tantalum View Post
Really, the way the last negotiations went down were their own fault. They refused to acknowledge the situation the league was in and sit down and negotiation. They allowed Goodenow to put forth a strategy that they ultimately didn't agree with and cost them a season. When they finally sat down and negotiated (Linden and Saskin) they negotiated a strong deal for themselves under the framework the league was happy with. That was what Kelly wanted to continue to do...maximize the money for the players under a system the league was happy with. Avoid costing the players millions.

The league was never out to "crush" the union last time either IMO (I don't disagree that in the end it can and likely did become personal and that right now the same thing is happening but at the start it wasn't). They were out to make a fair deal based on current economic conditions. Bob MacKenzie said it best the other day on the radio...you have two difference philosophies (and I'm paraphrasing). The League like most businesses are trying to make a budget based on the here and now. They are starting with a pie and dividing it up. What that division looked like last time has no bearing on what it looks like this time. The players on the other hand can only seem to look at the differences between the two pies. As a result we have the standoff we have. One is a strategy based on business practice and the other based on emotion. The problem is that the players turfed the guy who could approach it as a business in favor of the guy who fans the flames of the passion.


In the end it ought to come down to this for each individual players "is what the league offered by and large fair?" And honestly, I have no idea how they answer no.
Agreed.
And by how they got rid of Kelly you get an idea of how emotional they already were three years ago. They didn't see him as the guy tough enough to negotiate in their best interest. They felt he was too close with the league. And that sentiment only grew bigger and stronger, especially after they found their leader, who said the right things at the right time through those years leading up to these negotiations.

I also agree, it will come down to each individual player's decision. And maybe that's why the last offer by the league has never been put to a full vote. Maybe Fehr had a hunch the players would have accepted that deal.

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12-20-2012, 04:41 PM
  #532
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Originally Posted by Ronk View Post
What does that have to do with LA and Anaheim markets being the reason for the watered down product? Anaheim had 2 HHOF defense-men lined up together for god sakes.
Anaheim is one of the teams that are losing money. An example of the lowest common denominator that the league is dragging everyone else down to. In other words the goal of a cap is so that even the economically weakest team can have a roster that is equal to the strongest team. Inevitably all teams become mediocre. Balanced, but mediocre. We get too have 2.5 lost seasons to achieve this goal of parity and at the end of whatever cba is eventually signed, we will have another. Great huh? This has really improved hockey!

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12-20-2012, 04:43 PM
  #533
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Originally Posted by McLlwain View Post
F It IS the one big issue, that the players feel (or Fehr makes them believe) they got screwed over last time around. Seven years is not that long ago. There's enough active players left who have suffered through that last battle and lost.
They didn't lose. It's simple math. Bettman even said as much to their collective faces after that farce press conference Fehr called. I don't know if they've been deluded, are ignorant or are actively trying to deceive. In every case, the players absolutely did not "lose" the last CBA. If anything was lost, it was due to their stubborn refusal in the face of a salary cap. A cap which drove up salaries all around the league, rather than blunting them. Fehr's argument that a cap blunts salary growth only works if every team is spending to the cap. They aren't. Teams like Phoenix and Nashville run budgets higher than they'd like, because they are forced to qualify for revenue sharing.

The players have benefited greatly from this [mod]. We'd be on our way to another year of revenue growth, with 2 expansion teams on the horizon, had they not pulled this ********. Why they think they are special and deserve a higher percentage than other leagues I do not know.


Last edited by Fugu: 12-20-2012 at 06:18 PM. Reason: ...
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12-20-2012, 04:47 PM
  #534
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Originally Posted by McLlwain View Post
Agreed.
And by how they got rid of Kelly you get an idea of how emotional they already were three years ago. They didn't see him as the guy tough enough to negotiate in their best interest. They felt he was too close with the league. And that sentiment only grew bigger and stronger, especially after they found their leader, who said the right things at the right time through those years leading up to these negotiations.

I also agree, it will come down to each individual player's decision. And maybe that's why the last offer by the league has never been put to a full vote. Maybe Fehr had a hunch the players would have accepted that deal.
What's wrong with the idea that they feel they lost last time and they hired a guy who they believe will help them lose less this time? They got their salaries capped. That is a big hit for any union no matter how you slice it. They are in a situation where every cba the owners lock them out, cry poor and ask them to pick up the tab. I would think that they are trying to break that cycle. Until the act of locking them out causes real pain the owners will keep going back to the well. They have to make a stand somewhere or they will keep getting locked out and keep giving up more.

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12-20-2012, 04:47 PM
  #535
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wpgJetsfan View Post
Decertify and contract voids will kill the League

If Decertify, the players will file anti-trust suit
- No more Salary Caps
- No more Revenue Sharing
- Non-profitable teams will fold or relocate
- Salaries would rise
- Back to the 80s and 90s we go

Contract Voided:
- Every NHL player up for grabs
- Feeding Frenzy
- Players being sold to the highest bidder

As you all can see these 2 things will hurt our game and franchises
I'm guessing that player rights would not be vacated, just the contract. So only UFA players would be "up for grabs" (or if RFAs are allowed offer sheets....).

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12-20-2012, 04:50 PM
  #536
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Originally Posted by mossey3535 View Post
I didn't say it made sense. But I have trouble believing the vast (or any) majority of the 700 players is in favour of how this has turned out and the stalling tactics used.
Really, I have no idea how good and convincing a leader Fehr is. Maybe he still has his sheep together. Maybe he lost some on the way.

Since everybody was talking about January 15th as the deadline to start the season basically from the get go, I think the PA has yet to go through a real test. Everything up to now was kind of expected to happen. At least the PA / Fehr expected it and most likely told the players.

Whether or not Fehr has a majority among the membership will be in question from here on out, I think.

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12-20-2012, 04:52 PM
  #537
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Originally Posted by Greschner4 View Post
It's not just that the players gave up a lot in 2004 ... it's that Bettman had a blank canvas to do basically whatever he wanted to fix the system and he did such a crappy job that he was complaining again five years later.

There's no reason to trust Bettman's competence in this go round, and it can't be surprising that Fehr and the players really aren't buying in. (There's, of course, less than zero reason to repose any trust in Bettman personally, or in his word -- but that's very old news.)
Agreed. If Bettman is the man advising the owners on a strategy to make their franchises profitable then he has failed miserably. A major piece of evidence is the lack of a meaningful tv contract. ESPN used to cover hockey. Not anymore. In all the years as commissioner Bettman hasn't been able to improve the product enough to get a tv deal and he wants the players to pay for his failure.

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12-20-2012, 04:54 PM
  #538
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Originally Posted by schminksbro View Post
Anaheim is one of the teams that are losing money. An example of the lowest common denominator that the league is dragging everyone else down to. In other words the goal of a cap is so that even the economically weakest team can have a roster that is equal to the strongest team. Inevitably all teams become mediocre. Balanced, but mediocre. We get too have 2.5 lost seasons to achieve this goal of parity and at the end of whatever cba is eventually signed, we will have another. Great huh? This has really improved hockey!
Anaheim is currently losing money because they were horrible last year. And the state has been in a massive recession. They were a cap team for several years, don't let that get int the way of your argument though.

It's a logical fallacy that all the teams will become mediocre. The top teams simply won't be AS elite but there's a fair case that the bottom teams are just as bad. Having a larger number of good teams actually leads to a larger number of entertaining games. High end games between 4-5 elite teams who steamroller everyone else (as in, not good hockey) vs slightly less high end games between 14-16 good teams leads to a lot more entertainment league-wide IMO.

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12-20-2012, 04:55 PM
  #539
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Originally Posted by wpgJetsfan View Post
Decertify and contract voids will kill the League

If Decertify, the players will file anti-trust suit
- No more Salary Caps
- No more Revenue Sharing
- Non-profitable teams will fold or relocate
- Salaries would rise
- Back to the 80s and 90s we go

Contract Voided:
- Every NHL player up for grabs
- Feeding Frenzy
- Players being sold to the highest bidder

As you all can see these 2 things will hurt our game and franchises
It won't hurt the good franchises. On the contrary.

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12-20-2012, 04:55 PM
  #540
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I think it goes both ways-The owners may have underestimated Fehr (though if they had done their homework they shouldn't have), but I Fehr also is rather how "old boys club" the owners actually are, and seems at times stunned at how absolutely stubborn they are-I do think he went in thinking "they wouldn't dare lose another season after record revenues", and I think Fehr is a little surprised to see how close the brink they actually are-IMO I think Fehr thought this would have been playing hockey late Nov at the latest.

With MLB it was easier-"America's game" ect, ect-and he had more US fan leverage-he doesn't seem to understand the Canadian fans, and, more importantly IMO-he struggles with the-for most part-apathy from the US fan base-he hasn't been able to use it as leverage as he did with MLB.

My total speculation anyway
The bolded part I don't agree with.
I really think this January 15th deadline by the league to start a meaningful 48-game season has been floating around for way too long for Fehr not to catch wind of it early on.

The question now is who will blink first. Everything up to this point was mere posturing from both sides.
Eliotte Friedman said it best in his tweet on the cancellation of games through January 14th:
"Hearing NHL will cancel up to Jan. 14. No more BS, we're at the end. "

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12-20-2012, 04:59 PM
  #541
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
Anaheim is currently losing money because they were horrible last year. And the state has been in a massive recession. They were a cap team for several years, don't let that get int the way of your argument though.

It's a logical fallacy that all the teams will become mediocre. The top teams simply won't be AS elite but there's a fair case that the bottom teams are just as bad. Having a larger number of good teams actually leads to a larger number of entertaining games. High end games between 4-5 elite teams who steamroller everyone else (as in, not good hockey) vs slightly less high end games between 14-16 good teams leads to a lot more entertainment league-wide IMO.
Personally I would rather watch elite hockey but then I don't care if every team gets their turn with the cup. It isn't special if everyone gets to do it. It is an insult to the history of the cup itself.

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12-20-2012, 04:59 PM
  #542
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Not negotiating and closing the deal when it's this close is yet more evidence of Bettman's poor leadership.

Put aside the fact that he's something of a dwarfish troll personally, if you're a player, he simply engenders little confidence that he knows what he's doing business-wise. He has teams in what are obviously the wrong places, and his agenda is far too driven by the perceived needs of the lamest markets and franchises in the league.

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12-20-2012, 05:00 PM
  #543
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Now we're getting all these dates and the chances of things going off the rails is slightly increased.

2nd jan: NHLPA can't use disclaimer of interest past this date
7th-8th jan: likely drop dead date if the league is unwilling to start playing later than 15th jan
15th jan: last scheduled game
20th-ish january: last possible date for a 48 game season and even then it's tight

Endgame, here we come.

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12-20-2012, 05:03 PM
  #544
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Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
Anaheim is currently losing money because they were horrible last year. And the state has been in a massive recession. They were a cap team for several years, don't let that get int the way of your argument though.

It's a logical fallacy that all the teams will become mediocre. The top teams simply won't be AS elite but there's a fair case that the bottom teams are just as bad. Having a larger number of good teams actually leads to a larger number of entertaining games. High end games between 4-5 elite teams who steamroller everyone else (as in, not good hockey) vs slightly less high end games between 14-16 good teams leads to a lot more entertainment league-wide IMO.
Not true. Far too many games now -- including playoff games -- are low-scoring, one-goal games where the winner is decided on a fluke goal -- a bounce off a defenseman's skate or the like.

I haven't bothered to try to find data, but the number of own goals and unintended goals, as a percentage of goals, has to be at least triple what it was 20 years ago. It wouldn't shock me if it's ten times higher.

That's "parity" hockey.

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12-20-2012, 05:06 PM
  #545
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kuklaskorner 2:33pm via TweetDeck Wow. RT @darenmillard: Confirmed the @NHLPA is planning an outdoor game on Lake Louise for february if a cba can't be worked out.

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12-20-2012, 05:07 PM
  #546
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Not true. Far too many games now -- including playoff games -- are low-scoring, one-goal games where the winner is decided on a fluke goal -- a bounce off a defenseman's skate or the like.

I haven't bothered to try to find data, but the number of own goals and unintended goals, as a percentage of goals, has to be at least triple what it was 20 years ago. It wouldn't shock me if it's ten times higher.

That's "parity" hockey.
Yes, and if the top league in the world isn't playing hockey at the highest level then nobody is.

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12-20-2012, 05:10 PM
  #547
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It's not just that the players gave up a lot in 2004 ... it's that Bettman had a blank canvas to do basically whatever he wanted to fix the system and he did such a crappy job that he was complaining again five years later.

There's no reason to trust Bettman's competence in this go round, and it can't be surprising that Fehr and the players really aren't buying in. (There's, of course, less than zero reason to repose any trust in Bettman personally, or in his word -- but that's very old news.)
So instead of closely looking at the elements of each offer (and how they differ from the previous CBA), you're not going to bother and just say, 'It's Bettman. Can't be good. I hate that guy.'

That's idiotic. That's committing suicide because you think the guy in front of you is holding a gun, when you're not even bothering to look at what's in his hand. 'I'll be damned if I let this guy shoot me! So I'll just shoot myself!'

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12-20-2012, 05:18 PM
  #548
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Not true. Far too many games now -- including playoff games -- are low-scoring, one-goal games where the winner is decided on a fluke goal -- a bounce off a defenseman's skate or the like.

I haven't bothered to try to find data, but the number of own goals and unintended goals, as a percentage of goals, has to be at least triple what it was 20 years ago. It wouldn't shock me if it's ten times higher.

That's "parity" hockey.
So your contention is that trap hockey, defensive systems, larger goalies with larger pads, and shot blocking, and the return of clutch and grab hockey are all due to the salary cap? Interesting theory.

Regardless, you miss my point. I like regular season hockey too. Watching elite teams breeze through a league of doormats and having to wait until the conference finals to see the actual elite teams play each other is less interesting for more of the season for me. To each their own.

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12-20-2012, 05:22 PM
  #549
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So your contention is that trap hockey, defensive systems, larger goalies with larger pads, and shot blocking, and the return of clutch and grab hockey are all due to the salary cap? Interesting theory.

Regardless, you miss my point. I like regular season hockey too. Watching elite teams breeze through a league of doormats and having to wait until the conference finals to see the actual elite teams play each other is less interesting for more of the season for me. To each their own.
In a parity league the conference finals don't have elite teams either. Even the cup winner is just the average team that made it to the end.

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12-20-2012, 05:23 PM
  #550
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In a parity league the conference finals don't have elite teams either. Even the cup winner is just the average team that made it to the end.
Again, it's a fallacy that all teams become mediocre. The top teams just aren't AS good as they would be otherwise. There's still a clear pecking order in the league.

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