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NHL Lockout Discusion XXXIII: It's the same old song. **MOD WARNING POST 274

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12-21-2012, 01:59 AM
  #676
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Originally Posted by Krnuckfan View Post
Sorry, but your dream of Bettman getting fired will not be coming true I can guarantee you that. Bettman isnt there to make the average fan happy, his job is to put money in the owners pockets and he's done a good job of growing the league from when he first took over.
He's done a great job at selling existing owners with the idea of expansions fees. He has done an awful job at growing the league. The last tv contract - after the OLN fiasco - is living proof.

That's right, under Bettman's watch they signed with the Outdoor Network then signed a "free" deal afterwards.

Great job Gary. Are you kidding me?

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12-21-2012, 02:11 AM
  #677
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Sorry, but your dream of Bettman getting fired will not be coming true I can guarantee you that. Bettman isnt there to make the average fan happy, his job is to put money in the owners pockets and he's done a good job of growing the league from when he first took over.
You forgot his most important job, taking the heat for the owners. He get's paid to be the figure head and take all blame for the owner's decisions. All 30 owners voted for the lockout, but you don't hear how the 30 owners should lose their jobs because of the lockout, just pages and pages of Bettman hate.

People cheer when their owner raises the Cup each year, those same people boo Bettman when he hands the cup to their captain. Think about that.

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12-21-2012, 02:12 AM
  #678
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Originally Posted by CommonMeans View Post
He's done a great job at selling existing owners with the idea of expansions fees. He has done an awful job at growing the league. The last tv contract - after the OLN fiasco - is living proof.

That's right, under Bettman's watch they signed with the Outdoor Network then signed a "free" deal afterwards.

Great job Gary. Are you kidding me?
He's grown it from around 200-300mil(correct me here if im wrong) in the early 90's to 3.3b.

the national contract with NBC was around 220m, small for sure, but much bigger than all the other ones. It's a niche national sport really, much more popular in the north than the south, so all things considering its not a bad deal.

He's done a solid job of growing it really, just check out the post lockout numbers, many franchises have flourished since then, alot of teams were in jeopardy last time around. This time around was more about perfecting the system or at least making it as good as possible.

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12-21-2012, 02:30 AM
  #679
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Originally Posted by rdawg1234 View Post
He's grown it from around 200-300mil(correct me here if im wrong) in the early 90's to 3.3b.

the national contract with NBC was around 220m, small for sure, but much bigger than all the other ones. It's a niche national sport really, much more popular in the north than the south, so all things considering its not a bad deal.

He's done a solid job of growing it really, just check out the post lockout numbers, many franchises have flourished since then, alot of teams were in jeopardy last time around. This time around was more about perfecting the system or at least making it as good as possible.
One can manipulate numbers however they see fit. The league has done great so long as we're discussing Bettan's tenure and it's struggling within the context of the CBA.

The league's revenue has grown, no doubt about it. But in terms of owners' profitability he is joke.

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12-21-2012, 02:34 AM
  #680
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Originally Posted by CommonMeans View Post
One can manipulate numbers however they see fit. The league has done great so long as we're discussing Bettan's tenure and it's struggling within the context of the CBA.

The league's revenue has grown, no doubt about it. But in terms of owners' profitability he is joke.
The leafs are worth $1,000,000,000 I am sure they are all smiles with Bettman

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12-21-2012, 02:49 AM
  #681
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Originally Posted by rdawg1234 View Post
He's grown it from around 200-300mil(correct me here if im wrong) in the early 90's to 3.3b.

the national contract with NBC was around 220m, small for sure, but much bigger than all the other ones. It's a niche national sport really, much more popular in the north than the south, so all things considering its not a bad deal.

He's done a solid job of growing it really, just check out the post lockout numbers, many franchises have flourished since then, alot of teams were in jeopardy last time around. This time around was more about perfecting the system or at least making it as good as possible.
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Originally Posted by heartsabres View Post
The leafs are worth $1,000,000,000 I am sure they are all smiles with Bettman
How's the rest of the league doing?

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12-21-2012, 02:49 AM
  #682
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Originally Posted by CommonMeans View Post
Fehr has a history of successfully negotiating for those he represents. Can Bettman say the same? If he could, we wouldn't be where we are. The last CBA was a disaster, even after Bettman won his PR war.

Problem for him is this time he's dealing with a real lawyer. Not a snake oil salesman in a hollow suit.
I wasn't criticizing either Bettman or Fehr. I was making the observation that both take aggressive stances in negotiations even if its against their best interests. Thats neither a good thing or a bad quality, but it is a quality that seems to come naturally to them. Its not an unique quality by any means (especially for those that come from a legal background). Hence the scorpion and the frog. The scorpion couldn't help stinging the frog leading to both their deaths and Fehr/Bettman can't help being aggressive negotiators. Even if it means that the league and the players lose even more money the longer this goes on.

Hope that made some sort of sense to someone. I was babbling a bit at the end.

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12-21-2012, 02:56 AM
  #683
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Greedy idiots...everyone.

In particular it's funny seeing some of the players trying to support two important narratives: 1. that the nhlpa is hard-done-by and being bullied by the nhl, and 2. that they themselves are gangsters with lots of cash.



I mean what on earth...

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12-21-2012, 02:56 AM
  #684
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Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751 View Post
What is interesting is this:

(1) Rumblings have been that any season would start 12 days after an agreement is made. (3-5 days to collect the players then a 7-day camp)
(2) There were rumours from I think RDS or TVA that Jan. 3 was the drop-dead date.
(3) Jan. 3 + 12 = Jan. 15 which is the earliest game on the schedule right now.

I think January 3 might be the D-Day.
That would be perfect. 2 weeks until they **** or get off the pot.

I hope the season is cancelled at this point and REAL systemic change is brought forward.

Contract 4 teams, the ones that are acting like anchors. Once you have rid the league of the 4 anchors, bring forward true revenue sharing so the teams that are left have a real chance. Get rid of guaranteed contacts. Blow the whole ****ing thing up.

The players would be BEGGING for the deal they should have signed at the start of December.

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12-21-2012, 03:00 AM
  #685
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Originally Posted by The Flin Flon Bomber View Post
I wasn't criticizing either Bettman or Fehr. I was making the observation that both take aggressive stances in negotiations even if its against their best interests. Thats neither a good thing or a bad quality, but it is a quality that seems to come naturally to them. Its not an unique quality by any means (especially for those that come from a legal background). Hence the scorpion and the frog. The scorpion couldn't help stinging the frog leading to both their deaths and Fehr/Bettman can't help being aggressive negotiators. Even if it means that the league and the players lose even more money the longer this goes on.

Hope that made some sort of sense to someone. I was babbling a bit at the end.
Fair enough. I think you write a well thought out post that encapsulates, in many ways, the legal profession.

Sadly, the reality is that now we have to deal with what we're presented via media and so on. What I know of Bettman it's not looking good.

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12-21-2012, 03:27 AM
  #686
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http://thinkprogress.org/economy/201...rts/?mobile=nc
Crime-Ridden Oakland Lays Off 200 Police Officers While Giving $17 Million To Pro Sports Teams
Thanks for the link, Capt. I Don't know whether to laugh or cry at how unfair our capitalist system is. So the cities build the stadiums and pay to have games played there to a league that claims it is non profit and pays no tax? Well I guess that's how billionaires become that rich, through deceit. Using laws they pay to have made to serve their glut of wealth. Just like the bailout of 2009, the CEO's of failing institutions still rewarded themselves with bonuses of 10's of millions of dollars.

Bob this article backs up exactly what you've been saying about the mis-management of the NHL and the farce of demonizing players as the cause of this lockout.
What's really behind the NHL lockout


Quote:
...But in the event you are following the inaction rinkside, don’t be fooled when league officials or anyone else claims that the main issue is greedy players. The real problem in hockey is not in the locker room, but in the owners’ suites and commissioner’s office....

...Don’t believe them, not for a minute. First, as I’ve written about before, sports team accounting is misleading at best, given that club owners can claim to be losing money when a) the losses are on paper only; b) there are tax benefits from whatever losses happen to be real; and c) the value of their teams continue to rise.

...Some 60% of the NFL’s $11 billion revenue pie is shared, which is why tiny Green Bay, Wisconsin can compete with big bad New York or Chicago...The NHL, meanwhile, has been sharing 4.5% of its $3.3 billion revenue (with not much more on the table in current talks.)

...So greed is the issue, alright: owners’ greed, specifically owners in larger markets who refuse to recognize that sports leagues are in many ways socialist enterprises, in which the needs of the many fat cats should outweigh the few obese cats. At least if the obese cats want to keep purring.

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12-21-2012, 03:40 AM
  #687
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Originally Posted by CommonMeans View Post
Fair enough. I think you write a well thought out post that encapsulates, in many ways, the legal profession.

Sadly, the reality is that now we have to deal with what we're presented via media and so on. What I know of Bettman it's not looking good.
Believe me I know. I'm an attorney too. The law attracts certain types and heaven help you if you have to try to negotiate with them. Every minor or trivial thing turns into a scorched earth battle.

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12-21-2012, 03:43 AM
  #688
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Greedy idiots...everyone.

In particular it's funny seeing some of the players trying to support two important narratives: 1. that the nhlpa is hard-done-by and being bullied by the nhl, and 2. that they themselves are gangsters with lots of cash.



I mean what on earth...
How long before Evander spends it and declares bankruptcy? That's what I see when I see that ridiculous picture.

Cancel the season. I'm sick of the same **** every day. Everybody is twiddling their thumbs. And if the players wanted to play so bad, they'd make it a hell of a lot more evident. Enjoy an entire year without your salary, you mooks. Or two if you are so united. Doesn't affect me in any way. Yeah, I miss NHL hockey but somehow my life still goes on. No big deal.

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12-21-2012, 03:43 AM
  #689
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Originally Posted by CommonMeans View Post
One can manipulate numbers however they see fit. The league has done great so long as we're discussing Bettan's tenure and it's struggling within the context of the CBA.

The league's revenue has grown, no doubt about it. But in terms of owners' profitability he is joke.
Ice hockey is a niche sport. Along with basically every other winter sport (go look at winter olympic ratings vs. summer games).

In truth there are maybe 15 total markets in North America where hockey is an easy sell. And I'm probably being generous with that number.

You can hire any PR firm or let Gretzky be commissioner. IMO that is never fundamentally going to change.

Not unless the NHL gets some sort of transcendent athlete that drives ratings and appeal on his back, like a Michael Jordan did for basketball -- but you can't "manufacture" a Michael Jordan (the NBA has tried it's best for the last 15 years and failed).

It happens naturally. And Sidney Crosby, Eric Lindros, even Wayne Gretzky .... they aren't that.

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12-21-2012, 03:55 AM
  #690
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Here's the thing that many, many of the fans I talk to miss: What the cap is set at is irrelevant with the players' share directly linked to revenues.

You could have a $100-million cap and the players would only get 50 per cent as long as there isn't a cap on escrow. That's what linkage is.

I don't believe the league will ever agree to that cap on escrow, even as a temporary measure, so these arguments that the deal won't get to 50-50 really don't make sense.

What the percentage will be is a moving target based on how many games they play, what the make whole is, etc. etc. At the moment, it appears the deal will go something like 56-54-51-51-50-50-50-50 in terms of a players' share, but forecasting exactly what it'll be is impossible.

Needless to say, this idea that the players would get 57% over the term of the deal simply doesn't have merit.
First of all, almost nobody in here has claimed the players would get 57% over the term of the deal. What they're claiming is that 1st year split of 56.5% isn't a rollback on salary - therefore the players need to shut their mouths about how they're being taken advantage of. I think that's a valid point.

Scenario: League revenues decrease to $3B. Player's share is $1.5B on 50/50 split. However, cap set at $67.5M midpoint. That's equivalent to $2B in SALARY - the share is only $1.5B.

Past player salaries were $1.8B. Of that, $215M is Make Whole money. That leaves $1.585B. Again, the player share is only $1.5B.

Under the NHLPA %-based system, with a $67M midpoint, in order for the league to BARELY meet the floor requirements under the above scenario it would have to be set at $50M - that's 25% of the median. In reality it would probably be much lower because even spending 'just' to the floor would equal the player's share.

Make Whole is outside the split so ask yourself why does all this room need to be there when the player's share is linked to revenue? Why even have a fixed cap median?

In the best case scenario setting a never reducing cap number is an unnecessary complication whether it has any bearing on the final player share or not. So why the hell is it in there, especially at this late stage when time is a valuable commodity?

The answer is that it creates an artificially large gap in the floor and ceiling. Sure, the players share will be still 50% but there will be such a large range in the cap that the cap will essentially cease to matter. So rich clubs can flex their financial muscle and we can have Yankee/Rangers style teams again in the NHL.

$3.2B Revenue (-2.5% growth): 52-67-80 (floor 20% of median)
$3.3B Revenue (0.0% growth): 54-67-79 (floor 18% of median)
$3.4B Revenue (2.5% growth): 56-67-78 (floor 16% of median)
$3.5B Revenue (5.0% growth): 58-67-76 (floor 14% of median)

Keep in mind that last year's ceiling was $70M. Under the fixed +/- 8M cap, LEAGUE REVENUES WOULD HAVE TO GROW TO $4.3B TO REACH A CEILING OF $80M. At 5% growth, that kind of revenue would not have been seen until year SEVEN if there had been no work stoppage.


Last edited by mossey3535: 12-21-2012 at 04:02 AM.
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12-21-2012, 06:02 AM
  #691
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Actually, he was right.

By your logic, the NHLPA should take whatever the NHL puts in front of them before a game is lost --- until salaries average KHL levels.
I would appreciate if people would stop mischaracterizing my logic. My logic is not that the NHLPA should accept whatever the NHL offers before games are loss. My logic is that the NHLPA must make a make a calculation regarding how much they will lose with lost games, and how much they will reasonably be expected to make up with a better deal. This seems to be something both PA, and its supporters on here, either refuse to acknowledge, or can't understand.

In the present situation, everyone knew that the final agreement would most likely be fairly similar to the one the NHL offered to save an 82 game schedule. Anyone looking at this from a cost/benefit point of view would realize that the PAs best move (in terms of $ to its membership over the long run) was to negotiate off that deal and get an 82 game schedule. Which they refused to do.

Now, if the NHL had come out with a truly "draconian" offer to save a full season, I would have no problem with the PA refusing to negotiate and losing games because there would at least be a plausible scenario where they make more money over the long term by missing games.

But feel free to continue to twist my words into "Owners can do no wrong" and "PA should just accept whatever the NHL offers" since this is what you do best.

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12-21-2012, 06:12 AM
  #692
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I think the main talking point through the PA now is that the contract limits will "squeeze" everyone else but star players, in terms of money and length they will be able to get. They likened it to the NBA where there are a few guys with maxed out deals and the rest of the team gets significantly less. I don't agree it'll happen in the NHL because the NBA is a star-driven sport and that approach won't work in hockey.

David Backes also said something to the effect of, "if Crosby can only get a 5 year deal, what's the best I can get? 3?" Kind of a silly conclusion but I think these are the types of arguments they're using to galvanize the players.
Not picking on you personally, as I realize you are just reporting what you are reading, but it drives me crazy when posters and players continue to talk 5 year contract limits. Actually Crosby can still get a 7 year deal. Which is a pretty long term deal. In fact, I would assume, virtually any good player could still get 7 years, it would just have to involve a sign and trade which is actually beneficial to the team losing the player. So either Backes is being disingenuous, or Fehr isn't keeping his membership very informed. Backes can still get a 5 year deal, or a 7 year deal, it will just be for less money than Crosby.


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12-21-2012, 06:15 AM
  #693
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Originally Posted by Some Other Flame View Post
There's more to this lockout than money, from a PA perspective.

Stopping or preventing a cycle of constant give backs and CBA negotiation losses is probably pretty important for the PA.

They've already conceded a significant amount of money over time, so it should be obvious that money isn't the only concern here.
This is a load of crap since the PA is actually RESISTING the league's call for a 10 year CBA. I have said it before, and I will say it again: the only way to ensure labour piece is to have a deal in place where both parties are happy and there is no incentive to lose games. If the players are making their millions and the majority of teams are in the black, there is simply no incentive to risk losing what they have.

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12-21-2012, 06:25 AM
  #694
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One can manipulate numbers however they see fit. The league has done great so long as we're discussing Bettan's tenure and it's struggling within the context of the CBA.

The league's revenue has grown, no doubt about it. But in terms of owners' profitability he is joke.
If only there was a way to reduce costs...

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12-21-2012, 06:25 AM
  #695
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Hell, I prefer jobs that test for drugs via blood or urine tests. Makes me feel like they take their employees safety more seriously.
Are you comparing someone who drives a bus or a train to someone who hits a baseball for a living?

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12-21-2012, 06:44 AM
  #696
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I don't think we will see a deal until the very last minute in January sometime. I think there is a small concession or 2 yet the owners will make, but they can't make it until they are looking over the cliff. Otherwise Fehr will just take the gives come up with more needs and move the goal posts again. The owners have gone around the merry-go-round for the last time. Left on his own Fehr might try to keep the merry-go-round going, but my guess is a 1/2 season of lost paychecks will be enough for the players to push for a settlement, especially if they only have an hour or 2 to make their choice.

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12-21-2012, 06:45 AM
  #697
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Not picking on you personally, as I realize you are just reporting what you are reading, but it drives me crazy when posters and players continue to talk 5 year contract limits. Actually Crosby can still get a 7 year deal. Which is a pretty long term deal. In fact, I would assume, virtually any good player could still get 7 years, it would just have to involve a sign and trade which is actually beneficial to the team losing the player. So either Backes is being disingenuous, or Fehr isn't keeping his membership very informed. Backes can still get a 5 year deal, or a 7 year deal, it will just be for less money than Crosby.
I would think in the event of a trade that contract gets reduced to 5, and they'll determine that as not fallowing the rules. For a sign and trade that is.

That's not going to fly.

Here's another good reason for 5 years, if the CBA is for 10 years, the players contracts for the most will be up at the next CBA. This will help ensure the players don't have to worry about having their money reduced as they will essentially be resigning after the CBA has been finalized. Any player signing before would be stupid to do so. The only contracts that'll be more are those who choose the option of the 6/7 years who're staying with the same team, but even if I were them I'd stick with 5 year pattern guaranteeing them never having their salary decreased due to a lockout.

How can the players not see this as a win, win?

Long-term security is in the fact you'll be getting more money for each season spread out over each 5 year term instead of having get reduced as the contract expires along. They basically are not giving their discounts until they're in their twilight years anyways. They're basically not getting most of their money up front, really who cares, it's a guaranteed contract, and that's more stability and more money in their pockets.

Pretty much signed for what you're worth each and every season and there shouldn't be a gripe from anyone.

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12-21-2012, 07:05 AM
  #698
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I don't get the all the criticism Kane is getting for that picture. Probably in poor taste, but the crap I've heard out of peoples mouths is ridiculous.

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12-21-2012, 07:07 AM
  #699
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
If only there was a way to reduce costs...



I love this part about the NHLPA guys. "The owners sucks at running their business!" "Why should the players pay because the owners are stupid!"


It's the NHLPA that won't let them fix their business. I can't believe this part isn't obvious.

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12-21-2012, 07:18 AM
  #700
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Originally Posted by CommonMeans View Post
One can manipulate numbers however they see fit. The league has done great so long as we're discussing Bettan's tenure and it's struggling within the context of the CBA.

The league's revenue has grown, no doubt about it. But in terms of owners' profitability he is joke.
And where do you think the biggest increases in costs are coming from? Here's a hint...the players. The development staff, chartered flights, high end hotels, insurance, and freebies like tickets for player families have all increased since 2004. There's a reason why a gate driven league like the NHL has to have a more owner friendly setup than what currently exists.

You snipe about the TV contract revenue but without the teams in the sunbelt and south they wouldn't have even gotten that big of a deal. Until the NHL can grow to the point of exposure like the NBA, NFL, or MLB they will never have a large enough TV contract to split for real revenue sharing. The large contract is the main reason for expanding into some of these troubled areas and in the long term it is make it or break it but it's the only way to get there.

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