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So Who Is Bummed About The Lockout III ---> Season likely to start on Jan. 19th

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Old
12-20-2012, 09:37 AM
  #126
Jarick
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We've been assuming a 5-year CBA though...not an 8-10 year one.

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12-20-2012, 11:00 AM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
We've been assuming a 5-year CBA though...not an 8-10 year one.
Maybe you have... but any time i run the math, I always run it at a 10 year clip.

It is the Union that wants the short term CBA. Screw that. If they sign a 5 year, I will be very, very reluctant to invest any money in games, merchandise or anything. Sorry. I don't want this repeated in the short term...

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12-20-2012, 11:06 AM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
TP, where are you seeing this de-linkage?
The biggest part which was "de-linkage" from the proposals that were bandied about on the "Nuclear Thursday" were;

The PA pushed for amnesty buyouts which would be outside the cap.
The PA pushed for more "contract shifting" which would also be outside the cap.
The PA pushed for the "Make Whole" to be completely outside the cap.
Locking the escrow at a hard target dollar amount would also be... outside the cap.

Basically, all of these things, if true, would still be considered a de-linked proposal from the hard liner owners. Anything that has them giving money to the players outside of their share is "de-linked". The biggest concession that the owners have made is the "make whole" provision, which is the only monies they are willing to frontwhich would be above and beyond the 50% Player Share.

Which, by the way, I heard a rumor that it was Leipold that strong armed a few other owners into getting on board with the "Make Whole" provision in the first place. It was supposedly the Penguins and Winnipeg guys that pushed it to 300M.

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12-20-2012, 11:11 AM
  #129
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I want a 10-year CBA too.

I'm just saying that running the calculations for a 5-year vs a 10-year CBA makes it more important.

Go to the extremes...if the CBA was one year or two years, would the players really care about contract limits and revenue sharing nearly as much? No, the short-term dollars would far out-weigh those potential future earnings.

Now if the CBA was 50 years long. Those earnings now are still important, but now those long-term rules become much more so. You want to make absolutely sure you get it right. Especially for younger players who might have 1-2 long term contracts in their future. Give up $500k-1m now for the potential to earn and additional $5m+ down the road.

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12-20-2012, 11:14 AM
  #130
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I can buy the escrow part, but "make whole" can't be considered de-linkage. It's a transition payment. As is amnesty. Something to be able to go from a $70M to $60M salary cap without killing teams. Completely different.

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12-20-2012, 11:24 AM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Give up $500k-1m now for the potential to earn and additional $5m+ down the road.
I think the biggest thing that frustrated me from the beginning is the fallacy that the players “lost” the last CBA. In fact, I think they “won”.

Remember, I did not really become a fan until about 2006-2007, so I didn’t experience the angst of the last lockout.

However, as far as I have educated myself on the issues, the business model that caused the 04-05 season to be lost was wholly unsustainable. A lot of teams would have been in serious financial trouble had that model continued to be how the NHL operated. The struggles of teams like Nashville would have been a pandemic throughout the league.

Considering that Nashville is NOT one of the teams listed that lost a crap-ton of money last season, and you can see how the new business model implemented in the expired CBA helped. It added more stability to the league, which in turn, solidified the number of available NHL jobs.

Out of the teams that lost a major amount of coin last season, there were mitigating reason why this happened to each of them.
- The Islanders operated at a massive loss because of their arena issues.
- Phoenix operated at a loss, because, well, it is Phoenix.
- Columbus also had major issues with their arena.
- Dallas lost money because of the ownership uncertainty and the product on the ice.
If you listen to Phil Esposito, Tampa actually broke even last season, even though they didn’t make the playoffs. Florida operated at a minor loss, actual loss figures were less than Leipold suffered with the Wild.

I would argue that the majority of these issues were not due to the CBA or the Cap, but rather due to years of mismanagement and/or a crappy product on the ice.

Meanwhile, the players saw their salaries bloom from an average of 1.1 million to 2.5 to 2.7 million depending on how you figure the math. Contracts in the NHL are guaranteed, so even if you were a failing and falling player like Wade Redden, you got paid.

All things considered, the process from the PA was flawed from the beginning, because Fehr constantly hammered home the fact that his constituency *lost* the last CBA. How different would early negotiations have happened, if the players actually understood that they *won*?

Pretty sure we would have opened on time…

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12-20-2012, 11:37 AM
  #132
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That's a solid analysis.

I'd say the players gave up higher salaries for job security. The old model could not sustain all 30 franchises without revenue sharing and of course talent parity was not good.

Another point is that the high end players gave up salary so average players could make more. Elite players can't get paid over $10M because of the cap and small market teams need to spend up to the cap floor.

This last CBA was unsustainable because it punished small market teams for the success of larger markets and league revenues as a whole. There was inadequate revenue sharing and players making too large of a percent of the pie. Not to mention unlimited contracts with cheat years.

The players will again give up salary in exchange for job security so smaller markets can afford the salary floor as well as increased revenue sharing.

Beyond that, I can't see them "winning" this one, as inevitably failing markets would be relocated to Canada with massive relocation fees attached. This only delays the process.

Still, they have to realize they can't dictate their salaries and at some point they need to get on with actually playing hockey rather than worrying about their future potential earnings.

Not to mention they are going to lose what, 1/12th or 1/6th of their salary delaying a CBA signing by a month without gaining much money on the back end and only for a small percentage of players. I mean, we're pretty much there...just get on with it. Point taken.

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12-20-2012, 01:03 PM
  #133
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Past the point of caring about this season. More concerned with next year now and the court battles that could destroy what is left of the league's future.

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Old
12-20-2012, 01:05 PM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bozak911 View Post
I think the biggest thing that frustrated me from the beginning is the fallacy that the players “lost” the last CBA. In fact, I think they “won”.

Remember, I did not really become a fan until about 2006-2007, so I didn’t experience the angst of the last lockout.

However, as far as I have educated myself on the issues, the business model that caused the 04-05 season to be lost was wholly unsustainable. A lot of teams would have been in serious financial trouble had that model continued to be how the NHL operated. The struggles of teams like Nashville would have been a pandemic throughout the league.

Considering that Nashville is NOT one of the teams listed that lost a crap-ton of money last season, and you can see how the new business model implemented in the expired CBA helped. It added more stability to the league, which in turn, solidified the number of available NHL jobs.

Out of the teams that lost a major amount of coin last season, there were mitigating reason why this happened to each of them.
- The Islanders operated at a massive loss because of their arena issues.
- Phoenix operated at a loss, because, well, it is Phoenix.
- Columbus also had major issues with their arena.
- Dallas lost money because of the ownership uncertainty and the product on the ice.
If you listen to Phil Esposito, Tampa actually broke even last season, even though they didn’t make the playoffs. Florida operated at a minor loss, actual loss figures were less than Leipold suffered with the Wild.

I would argue that the majority of these issues were not due to the CBA or the Cap, but rather due to years of mismanagement and/or a crappy product on the ice.

Meanwhile, the players saw their salaries bloom from an average of 1.1 million to 2.5 to 2.7 million depending on how you figure the math. Contracts in the NHL are guaranteed, so even if you were a failing and falling player like Wade Redden, you got paid.

All things considered, the process from the PA was flawed from the beginning, because Fehr constantly hammered home the fact that his constituency *lost* the last CBA. How different would early negotiations have happened, if the players actually understood that they *won*?

Pretty sure we would have opened on time…
The biggest problem is both sides are arguing about winning and losing and sticking it to the other side instead of simply getting a fair deal done that helps grow the game year after year (thus lining everyone's pockets).

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Old
12-20-2012, 01:41 PM
  #135
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zero doubts that if this entire process had been outside the light of media, ego's or no, a deal would have been reached by now. **** you, twitter. #istillloveyou

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Old
12-20-2012, 01:50 PM
  #136
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and i'd be shocked if some teams didn't lose money simply because they handed out checks for "guaranteed" money a la Parise and Suter. I know they aren't the only ones.

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12-20-2012, 05:26 PM
  #137
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So, with the latest cancellations, season will come down to the next two weeks to see if the clowns representing the players can be bothered to give a damn about the sport and the league that affords these players a lifestyle they can afford nowhere else.

Through all of this, I still have no idea what the NHLPA is actually fighting for.

• Can't be about the money. Already lost more than they could ever hope to gain.
• Don't understand why it's about the last lockout. Fehr and Co. had no bearing on any sort of discussion in it and a large percentage of the union were not apart of it. Not to mention last CBA worked out wonderfully for those who were around -- Record revenues + higher average salaries.
• Isn't about future players. Agreed upon (and those which will ultimately be agreed upon) contracting issues certainly do them no favors. Not to mention "Make Whole."

So what's the end game? Some of the players are looking for a passion-based "payback" of sorts and/or they're so completely fed up with a figure head that they're willing to sink their short livelihoods. Don't understand their perspective here and it's pretty damn clear they've got very little sense of direction and they've been mislead and rallied around something that is doing them no favors at the end of the day.

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Old
12-20-2012, 06:10 PM
  #138
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Fehr is in it to make a legacy for himself... nothing more. The players are just buying whatever crap he seem to be trying to sell them.

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Old
12-20-2012, 06:28 PM
  #139
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Fehr is in it to make a legacy for himself... nothing more. The players are just buying whatever crap he seem to be trying to sell them.
with my tinfoil hat on:

that's why the public nature of this whole thing has severely crippled negotiations. Attacks are volleyed back and forth and there's no opportunity for Fehr to fake a reputation "win" in the negotiations because of it. They could have been done by now with the last offer, i bet, if the official story was "Well the league really caved in on the most important issue to us, what had been the sticking point through the whole process: contract length. The players felt they deserved the security of seven year deals where the league was insisting on capping them at 5." or some ********. I'm not even kidding.

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12-21-2012, 10:16 AM
  #140
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I've said all along, this lockout is caused by greed, ego, and pride. The greed of the owners, the pride of the players, and the ego of the bosses.

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12-21-2012, 01:13 PM
  #141
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NHLPA approved decertification today.

NHL already called the PA's bluff with the pre-emptive lawsuit.

Guess and hope that it's quiet for a few days then the PA makes a move to meet again. Situation gets resolved first week of Jan.

Just a guess.

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12-21-2012, 02:19 PM
  #142
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I am not feeling optimistic at all at this point.

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12-21-2012, 03:04 PM
  #143
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NHLPA approved decertification today.
That's cool. I didn't really want to watch NHL hockey for the next couple of years anyway. On the bright side, if the league does finally come back, we should be able to get tickets for like $4.

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12-21-2012, 03:56 PM
  #144
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That's cool. I didn't really want to watch NHL hockey for the next couple of years anyway. On the bright side, if the league does finally come back, we should be able to get tickets for like $4.
Silver lining!

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12-21-2012, 04:57 PM
  #145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
NHLPA approved decertification today.

NHL already called the PA's bluff with the pre-emptive lawsuit.

Guess and hope that it's quiet for a few days then the PA makes a move to meet again. Situation gets resolved first week of Jan.

Just a guess.
Have to be honest. After 35 years of watching and being entertained by this league, I'm extremely close to calling it quits on NHL hockey. This CoI approval vote by the players indicates to me they're willing and if pushed will go through with it. The 90% of the PA lemmings are in all reality doing nothing but propping things up for the top 10% of the top tier players. The 3rd/4th liners are being hosed like a fluffer in a bad porn. It's a sham. There is no doubt Fehr will be a consultant for them through the process. So while the PA won't 'technically' represent them, they'll still be pulling the strings behind the curtain. I've lost respect for the players at this point. If they follow their path so far and go through with decertifying or the CoI, I'll walk away. They won't get another dollar of my money or my interest. I'll look to HS, college and what I can follow of the AHL or other semi pro leagues. I'll probably start following the Swarm a little heavier as well.

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12-21-2012, 05:17 PM
  #146
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anyone explain to me why Walsh seems excited about the prospect of the owners getting sued for $100's of millions of dollars? Does he not realize these are the people that actually pay his clients?

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12-21-2012, 05:33 PM
  #147
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anyone explain to me why Walsh seems excited about the prospect of the owners getting sued for $100's of millions of dollars? Does he not realize these are the people that actually pay his clients?
He & Russo got into it a bit on twitter last week. He responded to something I said, but I got busy and couldn't respond in a realistic timeframe. Plenty of other folks called him out on the carpet about it though. He's a player agent. I consider them in the same category as used car salesmen for inability to be forthright about their end motives regardless of the fact everyone see's it anyways.

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12-21-2012, 05:38 PM
  #148
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if most or all of the players can/will sue their teams for damages there's no way i hell as an owner i wouldn't file for bankruptcy. Good luck getting the actual money you ****tards! Oh, and finding a job that pays half as much, afterward.

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12-21-2012, 08:59 PM
  #149
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I am not feeling optimistic at all at this point.
I am not feeling at at all at any point.

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12-21-2012, 10:18 PM
  #150
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As long as we win the lottery, I'll be happy.

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