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2013 NHL Draft in case of Lockout

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Old
12-23-2012, 11:00 AM
  #301
Beauner
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Draft lottery most likely. That's how they did it in 05.



From Wikipedia:
Quote:
Teams were assigned 1 to 3 balls based on their playoff appearances and first overall draft picks from the past three years. According to the draft order, the selection worked its way up to 30 as usual; then instead of repeating the order as in past years, the draft "snaked" back down to the team with the first pick

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12-23-2012, 10:13 PM
  #302
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to beat a dead horse.... (there have been several threads on this topic already)

We do not know the order, it could be a completely new system if there is a lockout - compared to the last lockout draft lottery.

If they go off of the last lockout draft... the 3/2/1 ping pong ball chart.

I personally think they will use the same formula if there is a lockout but could see them extend it to a 5/4/3/2/1 ordeal... 3/2/1 doesn't help they teams that NEED a top pick. A great team could easily get very lucky... but then again, the fans of any team after a lockout deserve the same chance as the next for a top pick....

as a Wild fan, a lockout would most likely greatly benefit them in the draft, compared to where they would have been if there had been a season

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12-24-2012, 09:27 AM
  #303
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Well with the season most likely gone, the draft is what NHL fans have most likely to look for. Especially for teams like Leafs.

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12-24-2012, 10:25 AM
  #304
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Originally Posted by Leaf Rocket View Post
Well with the season most likely gone, the draft is what NHL fans have most likely to look for. Especially for teams like Leafs.
It's a shame they'll be playing by January 20th then

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12-24-2012, 10:43 AM
  #305
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Bruins picking last?

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12-24-2012, 11:17 AM
  #306
Leaf Rocket
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Originally Posted by SDig14 View Post
It's a shame they'll be playing by January 20th then
Lol. I think if we don't have games by Jan 11 a full cancellation although I am pretty sure there won't be a season. Last time they had around 48 games right?

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12-24-2012, 02:32 PM
  #307
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Originally Posted by Leaf Rocket View Post
Lol. I think if we don't have games by Jan 11 a full cancellation although I am pretty sure there won't be a season. Last time they had around 48 games right?
Yes, they played 48 games, which is about what I see happening again. However, it wasn't until February 16th before they actually cancelled the whole year. That being said, most insiders think it will be much earlier this year if it happens.

They cancelled through January 14th already, so my guess is January 10th a deal is done and 10 days for travel and camp and games starting the 20th.

Some people are pretty pessimistic about these negotiations, and I don't blame them based on the insane ego and stubborness of both sides, but they are so close on the main issues it doesn't make any sense to miss an entire season.

If they miss a whole year it will be one of if not the biggest tragedy the NHL has ever seen and a complete and utter joke that just shows the misguidedness of the priorities of some of the people involved.

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12-24-2012, 04:27 PM
  #308
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I think using the past couple of seasons to determine where a team picks is flawed. I mean the teams have already been "rewarded" for finishing low in the standings.

In my opinion they don't deserve anything.
Totally agree with this and thats why they make a lottery, in a way it's the fairest thing they can do.

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12-31-2012, 07:27 AM
  #309
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Interesting to see that there is an item on the latest CBA proposal that sounds like it expands the draft lottery format, such that any non-playoff team could draft 1st. It still says "weighted", but presumably whatever the new weightings will be, it is proposed as something more open than the current 1-team-moves-up-4-places lottery.

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01-01-2013, 09:25 PM
  #310
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How about a straight lottery 30 balls and the order they're drawn is the draft order? Why reward non-playoff teams twice?

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01-01-2013, 11:20 PM
  #311
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im not a fan of the maple leafs, but i am kind of excited that they have a decent possibility at picking up a pretty high draft pick, will be very good for the team! not like they need to sell more tickets but i like to see canadian teams do well

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01-01-2013, 11:49 PM
  #312
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedberg1 View Post
Draft lottery most likely. That's how they did it in 05.



From Wikipedia:
Quote:
Teams were assigned 1 to 3 balls based on their playoff appearances and first overall draft picks from the past three years. According to the draft order, the selection worked its way up to 30 as usual; then instead of repeating the order as in past years, the draft "snaked" back down to the team with the first pick
I could be wrong but wasn't the first overall draft pick part like the past 4-5 years?

If it's 4 years then the Islanders only have 2 balls instead of 3, and if it's five Year I believe Tampa has 1 instead of 2.

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01-02-2013, 12:49 AM
  #313
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I wish that they would have it so the amount of teams with 3 balls (6) are put into a draw for the 1st 6. Then, the ones with 2 (7?) are put into a draw, and awarded the 7-14 group of picks. Then, the rest of picks are awarded.

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01-02-2013, 02:23 AM
  #314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DropkickQuinn View Post
I dont like it because it gives teams like St. Louis, Minnesota and Buffalo an equal chance with Columbus and a better chance than NYI at picking first overall.

Here's my idea. I don't really want to see it implemented, just something I thought of:

The draft order is done based on the average number of points for each team over the past 3 seasons. Points are added to these averages based on any of these events having occurred over the same time span:

- 5 points are added for a playoff appearance
- 5 points are added for each playoff round win
- 10 points are added for each 1st overall pick
- 10 points are added for each Stanley Cup won
- Ties will be broken by having the team which has won the furthest round of the playoffs (ie. Conference finals vs. Conference quarter-finals) in the described time span have higher placement; if equal it will decided by chance

Therefore the modified point scores are:

Boston Bruins - 158 points
Chicago Blackhawks - 154 points
Los Angeles Kings - 143 points
Vancouver Canucks - 143 points
San Jose Sharks - 143 points
Philadelphia Flyers -139 points
Washington Capitals - 132 points
Detroit Red Wings - 130 points
New Jersey Devils - 123 points
Nashville Predators - 123 points
Phoenix Coyotes - 121 points
Pittsburgh Penguins - 119 points
New York Rangers - 111 points
Montreal Canadiens -109 points
St. Louis Blues - 105 points
Buffalo Sabres - 104 points
Edmonton Oilers - 101 points
Tampa Bay Lightning - 98 points
Ottawa Senators - 96 points
Anaheim Ducks - 95 points
Calgary Flames - 93 points
Dallas Stars - 89 points
Florida Panthers - 89 points
Carolina Hurricanes -88 points
Colorado Avalanche - 85 points
Minnesota Wild - 85 points
Winnipeg Jets - 81 points
Toronto Maple Leafs -80 points
Columbus Blue Jackets - 79 points
New York Islanders - 73 points

The order is then drawn in pools of five such that teams with lower point totals get earlier selections, with each team in the pool receieving even odds; ie. NYI, CLB, TOR, WPG and MIN will be guaranteed the first 5 picks in random order; COL, CAR, FLA, DAL, CGY will have picks 6-10 in random order, etc.

I feel like this model is the best for accurately portraying how good each team has been on whole over the past 3 years, with an emphasis put on playoff success, with the teams which have won the past 3 stanley cups and the past 3 president's trophies all finishing in the top 5 and having the lowest picks, and the teams which have had the lowest point totals without having a 1st overall pick having the highest picks
I like what you're doing here a lot, but the only issue I have is that pools of 5 feels kind of arbitrary, and places too large of a difference between two teams on the cusp, such as the Wild and the Avs. I think something like a tiered system based on the points to determine the pools would be more fair. For example, a three tiered system of <90 points, 91-115 points and >115 points.

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01-02-2013, 03:05 AM
  #315
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How were the other drafting positions decided at 2005? 1st pick goes with the lottery, but how after that?

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01-03-2013, 02:01 AM
  #316
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Originally Posted by Leaffan16 View Post
I wish that they would have it so the amount of teams with 3 balls (6) are put into a draw for the 1st 6. Then, the ones with 2 (7?) are put into a draw, and awarded the 7-14 group of picks. Then, the rest of picks are awarded.
Why this obsession with avoiding a good team getting a good prospect, as if that was some sort of unfortunate anomaly? A lottery draft is the only fun part of this hockey year. And, there has been no season, and there is really no legitimate basis on which to distribute assets. And no, it's not "unfair". It's not a **** team's god given right to get a top prospect, it's just how the NHL normally chooses to distribute one of its assets to make it easier for the less gifted to make some money occasionally. No season, no ditribution. In theory, the Jackets might have finished 3rd overall, or the Wings 27th.

For my part I'd rather just see every team get one ball each irrespective of recent playoff performance, for an equal chance. Fairer, more logical and much more fun.

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01-03-2013, 02:15 AM
  #317
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qvist View Post
Why this obsession with avoiding a good team getting a good prospect, as if that was some sort of unfortunate anomaly? A lottery draft is the only fun part of this hockey year. And, there has been no season, and there is really no legitimate basis on which to distribute assets. And no, it's not "unfair". It's not a **** team's god given right to get a top prospect, it's just how the NHL normally chooses to distribute one of its assets to make it easier for the less gifted to make some money occasionally. No season, no ditribution. In theory, the Jackets might have finished 3rd overall, or the Wings 27th.

For my part I'd rather just see every team get one ball each irrespective of recent playoff performance, for an equal chance. Fairer, more logical and much more fun.
So then we can get parity in the league. Look at MLS soccer, there's a couple of good teams, and jack **** for the rest. You want it to be like that? To have a team like Vancouver get Mackinnon, while Columbus gets a probable bust? Ya, that'd be great to see for the league

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01-06-2013, 03:15 PM
  #318
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2013 Draft

Looks like the NHL made an adjustment to the draft lottery starting n 2013. All 14 non-playoff teams are no eligible to win the #1 draft pick. Previously, only the #2 - #5 worst teams could win the draft lottery and pick #1, with the worst team having a huge percentage 25% for winning the lottery themselves, plus the #6 to #14 worst teams winning the lottery and only moving up 4 slots, thus ensuring that the worst team maintained the top pick, which was about 23% give or take. So, the worst team had around a 48% chance of retaining the top pick.

I believe since the lottery was created for the 1995 draft, only a couple of teams have ever won the lottery below the #5 seed.

1995 - LA won and moved up to #3
1999 - Chicago won and moved up to #4
2011 - NJ won and moved up to #4

Wonder if this will have an impact in the future when it comes to teams trading their first round picks. Not going to affect top level teams that know they are going to make the playoffs, but could affect teams that are borderline playoff teams.

Jackets own the Rangers and Kings picks this year, so if either of those teams gets off to a bad start or runs into a bunch of injuries, suddenly the Jacket's chances of landing the #1 pick increases.

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01-21-2013, 08:14 AM
  #319
Blind Gardien
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I'm going to unstick this thread, btw. It sounds like the league is just going with the previous 4/14 lottery odds, but now whoever wins the lottery moves straight to #1. (And hence any teams that they leapfrog move down by 1 spot)... but that's all.

Kinda boring to me, and will undoubtedly be subject to some criticism the first time a "good" non-playoff team scoops #1 in a big draft.

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01-21-2013, 08:44 AM
  #320
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Anyone know what the highest ranked team to win the lottery in the past was? All I remember is the Devils in 2011 and they were originally 8th pick I believe, then moved to 4th where Larsson fell to them.

I'm sure the odds of that 14th pick becoming #1 will be extremely high. Even if it does happen, I don't have a problem with it. There has always been an element of luck building teams, this is just another example moving forward.

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01-21-2013, 11:56 AM
  #321
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SlapJack View Post
I'm sure the odds of that 14th pick becoming #1 will be extremely high. Even if it does happen, I don't have a problem with it. There has always been an element of luck building teams, this is just another example moving forward.
Odds are 5 out of 1000, or 0.5% of the #14 team winning. So for sure, not big. People already complain of course when Pittsburgh gets Crosby, or the Oilers get their nth high pick, so it'll be nothing new anyway. If some "good" team dips out of the playoffs after a slow start in this short season, for example (recent Cup winner, or other perceived perennial power), or if the Oilers climb nicely in the standings, say, but get edged out of the playoffs and win the lottery again from 13th or 14th or something...

But it's also good that teams don't drop by more than 1 spot. If it had been a totally open order for the non-playoff teams, you could have had the opposite situations where a really woeful team that needs a high pick drops from the franchise player range down to a more generic pick outside the top-10.

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