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12-21-2012, 03:48 PM
  #1
sfulefty
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Ottawa Senators - Random holiday thoughts

A few random Senators thoughts open for discussion over the holidays:

1) Jared Cowen was drafted a a defensive force when he was drafted in 2009. He currently has 17 career NHL points. Nazem Kadri was known for his offensive exploits, but only has 19 career points, to date.

2) When we traded Mike Fisher, we got a 1st and 3rd round pick from Nashville. It was widely known that Carolina had an offer for Fisher, that might have been greater than Nashville's offer. So I'm assuming it included their first round pick that year, 12th overall. So I'm wondering, had we taken Carolina's pick, we would have had a choice of Ryan Murphy (12th to Carolina), or Sven Baertschi (13th to Calgary). Instead we got Stefan Noesen at #21. It will be interesting to see where they all are in five years.

3) Those three first round draft picks that year, were going to be key to our rebuild. But suffice to say that Mika Zibanejad (6th, injuries and struggles in the AHL), Stefan Noesen (21st, suspension, and not yet elevate his game), and Matt Puempel (24th, injuries, injuries, injuries), might all be worthy of mulligan status, to date. Again, time will tell.

4) If we had the 6th pick again, would you do Sean Couturier (27 points last year as a rookie with Philly) and currently 22 points in 24 games in the AHL. (compared to Zibanejad's 7 points in 16 games with Binghamton)

5) As for the Stefan Noesen trade (Detroit got the 35th and 48th overall picks), and selected Tomas Jurco and Xavier Ouellet, both of whom could be considered to have progressed further than Noesen to this point.

6) Between those 35th and 48th overall picks in 2011, other quality picks such as Tomas Jurco, Boone Jenner, Brandon Saad, Brett Ritchie, Markus Granlund and Xavier Ouelett were all avaialble.

7) Depending on what happens with the CBA, there's a possibility of being able to eat one contract, in order to get under the new projected salary cap. Many feel Sergei Gonchar's 5.5 million contract would be the first to go. But realistically, with Jared Cowen's injury, can we really rid ourselves of a veteran d-man who had 37 points on the back-end last year, and has been a mentor to Karlsson. Furthermore, losing his 5.5 million, would that put us under the cap floor...??!

8) You have to admit, there are teams out there with worse contracts to rid themselves of than the Senators. Other teams have a Brian Campbell, James Wisniewski, Daniel Briere, Scott Gomez, type contracts that they would love to get rid of. Or are playing players until they are near 40 years old. At some level you have to give Murray some credit for this. Bleacher report lists the top 15 worst contracts in the NHL right now:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...acts-right-now

9) To date are the 3rd lowest payroll at 51.9 million committed next season. That leaves us with about 18.25 million to spend under the current cap system. Obviously that is going to change. But what can the Sens get for being fiscally responsible. Here are some teams that will need to rid salary:
Boston 68.9 million committed
Minnesota 68.8 million
Vancouver 67.7 million
Calgary 66.7 million
Philadelphia 66.6 million
Only the Phoenix Coyotes (50.1 million) and NY Islanders (50.2 million) have spent less than Ottawa, but neither of those will be able/interested to take on new salary.

10) So if Melnyk allows it, what could we get for taking on some salary from the above teams. For instance, would Philadelphia part with Kimmo Timonen (6.3 million cap hit, though only 3.0 million in salary) and include a quality prospect and/or draft pick to get under the cap. When the new CBA is announced, several teams, including those above are going to need to shed salary. Ottawa is one of the few teams that can take on some salary.

11) If Bryan Murray had signed Nick Foligno to a 9 million dollar/3 year contract, we would have called him insane. But looking at it now, would we rather have a 3 million dollar forward, or a 3 million dollar defenseman? Considering Jared Cowen's recent injury, I think the answer is pretty obvious. It might end up being a pretty good deal to acquire Mark Methot.

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12-21-2012, 04:00 PM
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Benny FTW
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sfulefty View Post

2) When we traded Mike Fisher, we got a 1st and 3rd round pick from Nashville. It was widely known that Carolina had an offer for Fisher, that might have been greater than Nashville's offer. So I'm assuming it included their first round pick that year, 12th overall. So I'm wondering, had we taken Carolina's pick, we would have had a choice of Ryan Murphy (12th to Carolina), or Sven Baertschi (13th to Calgary). Instead we got Stefan Noesen at #21. It will be interesting to see where they all are in five years.

3) Those three first round draft picks that year, were going to be key to our rebuild. But suffice to say that Mika Zibanejad (6th, injuries and struggles in the AHL), Stefan Noesen (21st, suspension, and not yet elevate his game), and Matt Puempel (24th, injuries, injuries, injuries), might all be worthy of mulligan status, to date. Again, time will tell.

4) If we had the 6th pick again, would you do Sean Couturier (27 points last year as a rookie with Philly) and currently 22 points in 24 games in the AHL. (compared to Zibanejad's 7 points in 16 games with Binghamton)

5) As for the Stefan Noesen trade (Detroit got the 35th and 48th overall picks), and selected Tomas Jurco and Xavier Ouellet, both of whom could be considered to have progressed further than Noesen to this point.

6) Between those 35th and 48th overall picks in 2011, other quality picks such as Tomas Jurco, Boone Jenner, Brandon Saad, Brett Ritchie, Markus Granlund and Xavier Ouelett were all avaialble.

7) Depending on what happens with the CBA, there's a possibility of being able to eat one contract, in order to get under the new projected salary cap. Many feel Sergei Gonchar's 5.5 million contract would be the first to go. But realistically, with Jared Cowen's injury, can we really rid ourselves of a veteran d-man who had 37 points on the back-end last year, and has been a mentor to Karlsson. Furthermore, losing his 5.5 million, would that put us under the cap floor...??!

9) To date are the 3rd lowest payroll at 51.9 million committed next season. That leaves us with about 18.25 million to spend under the current cap system. Obviously that is going to change. But what can the Sens get for being fiscally responsible. Here are some teams that will need to rid salary:
Boston 68.9 million committed
Minnesota 68.8 million
Vancouver 67.7 million
Calgary 66.7 million
Philadelphia 66.6 million
Only the Phoenix Coyotes (50.1 million) and NY Islanders (50.2 million) have spent less than Ottawa, but neither of those will be able/interested to take on new salary.

10) So if Melnyk allows it, what could we get for taking on some salary from the above teams. For instance, would Philadelphia part with Kimmo Timonen (6.3 million cap hit, though only 3.0 million in salary) and include a quality prospect and/or draft pick to get under the cap. When the new CBA is announced, several teams, including those above are going to need to shed salary. Ottawa is one of the few teams that can take on some salary.

11) If Bryan Murray had signed Nick Foligno to a 9 million dollar/3 year contract, we would have called him insane. But looking at it now, would we rather have a 3 million dollar forward, or a 3 million dollar defenseman? Considering Jared Cowen's recent injury, I think the answer is pretty obvious. It might end up being a pretty good deal to acquire Mark Methot.
2) Pure speculation
3) Zibanejad is a long term project. Noesen is looking really good. Puempel... maybe.
4) I would have taken Dougie Hamilton.
5) That trade got us the 24th pick (Puempel).
6) I agree. Would rather have one of them than Puempel but at the time Puempel was BPA. He would have been a top-15 if not for injuries.
7) Gonchar is still a top-4 dman with only 1 year left. He will stay even if Cowen hadn't been injured.
9) This is where we trade our quantity for quality.
10) Nope. They lack defensive depth and hes pretty good.
11) Defenseman easily. We traded from a position of depth for one lacking depth. Now I just hope Methot is actually good.

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12-21-2012, 04:39 PM
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Huh, never knew Carolina had an offer for Fish

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12-22-2012, 12:36 AM
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OP is underrating Noesen to an epic proportion

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12-22-2012, 01:14 AM
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It's not exactly fair to judge the Foligno deal through Cowen's injury. There's absolutely no way you can predict that sort of thing.

The Foligno deal was made simply because we didn't have enough NHL ready D, and we had enough forwards to replace Foligno.

And for what it's worth, $3M for Foligno isn't insane. That's actually pretty fair value at a $60M cap for a third liner who'll probably be good for 35+ pts per year. Nielsen's an approximate comparable there (although Nielsen played more special teams, inc. PP and PK).

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12-22-2012, 01:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadianHockey View Post
It's not exactly fair to judge the Foligno deal through Cowen's injury. There's absolutely no way you can predict that sort of thing.

The Foligno deal was made simply because we didn't have enough NHL ready D, and we had enough forwards to replace Foligno.

And for what it's worth, $3M for Foligno isn't insane. That's actually pretty fair value at a $60M cap for a third liner who'll probably be good for 35+ pts per year.
I was expecting Foligno to get 4mil per.

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12-22-2012, 01:36 AM
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The only one that has some logic sense to all those you listed is the Fisher to Carolina deal. With that being said, Ottawa had too much respect for everything Fisher has done to this team and decided to deal him to Nashville where he wanted to be.

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12-22-2012, 04:43 PM
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In all reality I can't see Fisher going to any other team that Nashville.

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12-22-2012, 04:49 PM
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The only one that has some logic sense to all those you listed is the Fisher to Carolina deal. With that being said, Ottawa had too much respect for everything Fisher has done to this team and decided to deal him to Nashville where he wanted to be.

This is what I was going to post.

I'm glad that if Fish had to go, he got to go to the best place for him, it was worth the lower return

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12-23-2012, 08:07 AM
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Edler for Latendresse. We also have a real NHL goalie to move.

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12-23-2012, 08:14 AM
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Originally Posted by CanadianHockey View Post
It's not exactly fair to judge the Foligno deal through Cowen's injury. There's absolutely no way you can predict that sort of thing.

The Foligno deal was made simply because we didn't have enough NHL ready D, and we had enough forwards to replace Foligno.

And for what it's worth, $3M for Foligno isn't insane. That's actually pretty fair value at a $60M cap for a third liner who'll probably be good for 35+ pts per year. Nielsen's an approximate comparable there (although Nielsen played more special teams, inc. PP and PK).
And is a C. I think Foligno deserves his money but Nielsen definitely deserves it more.

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12-23-2012, 11:06 AM
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LOL at the underrating of Noesen and Puempel should be back in the next week or so let's put the gun down for a second its Christmas.

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12-23-2012, 11:43 AM
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In terms of 7) I really do not think Ottawa is going to be a team that benefits from or uses the "buyout" mechanism that may or may not be included in the new CBA. At this point why would you buy out a 5.5mil contract that is keeping your team above the floor and providing you with a player that can be used when he only has one year left on his deal?

I don't know exactly what you'd have to pay Gonchar to buy him out but I would assume it would be around 3mil. Then you have to spend another 1-3mil to bring in a new free agent who does not know your system and you possibly wind up paying more for less. In my opinion it makes no sense to buy out any of the contracts on Ottawa's roster.


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12-23-2012, 12:09 PM
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Edler for Latendresse. We also have a real NHL goalie to move.
I uhhhh... don't see Mike Gillis making this trade

Edler played 82 games last season with 49 points

Latendresse played 3 seasons with the Wild for 82 games and 52 points

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12-23-2012, 12:41 PM
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I uhhhh... don't see Mike Gillis making this trade

Edler played 82 games last season with 49 points

Latendresse played 3 seasons with the Wild for 82 games and 52 points
I think the thing here is that Edler is going to be a UFA, so if Gillis doesn't expect him to resign, then he would get some value back for him.

However I think I'd rather hold on to Latendresse and try to sign Edler in free agency.

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12-23-2012, 02:30 PM
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I never liked the trade of two second round picks for one late first rounder. In that range I'd prefer the extra pick. ken Holland comes out on top in those kind of deals all the time.

I have never believed for one minute that Ottawa rejected a better deal for Mike Fisher than the one we received from Nashville. Fisher had more value to Nashville than he did to any other team. The superior offers we rejected are pure propaganda.

I wanted Couturier with the pick we used on Zibanejad but if we had a do-over I'd probably take Hamilton. I believe that in the long term the reputation of Bryan Murray as a draft day genius is going to take a major hit as a result of the 2011 draft. I wasn't happy on draft day and nothing has happened to change my mind since then.

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12-23-2012, 03:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WantEggRoll View Post
In terms of 7) I really do not think Ottawa is going to be a team that benefits from or uses the "buyout" mechanism that may or may not be included in the new CBA. At this point why would you buy out a 5.5mil contract that is keeping your team above the floor and providing you with a player that can be used when he only has one year left on his deal?

I don't know exactly what you'd have to pay Gonchar to buy him out but I would assume it would be around 3mil. Then you have to spend another 1-3mil to bring in a new free agent who does not know your system and you possibly wind up paying more for less. In my opinion it makes no sense no buy out any of the contracts on Ottawa's roster.
Completely agree.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deku Scrub View Post
I think the thing here is that Edler is going to be a UFA, so if Gillis doesn't expect him to resign, then he would get some value back for him.

However I think I'd rather hold on to Latendresse and try to sign Edler in free agency.
So is Latendresse... Mind you, I think that if we want him back, he's a good bet to resign here, season or no season. Its either here or Montreal.

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12-24-2012, 01:24 AM
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All I want for Christmas is a 2011 first round redraft.

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12-24-2012, 05:30 AM
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All I want for Christmas is a 2011 first round redraft.
I don't get all the Zibby hate around here. The kid is what, 19 years old, and has moved to a completely different continent, playing on smaller ice, didn't know anyone coming over, etc. There is an adjustment period there. Sure some other 2011 have looked better than him, but how about we give these kids to, say, the ripe old age of about 25 before we call them a bust? He is still a teenager for crying out loud.

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