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2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk 3.0

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Old
12-21-2012, 11:33 AM
  #201
Talks to Goalposts
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I think our chances at a playoffs are slim.

The impact of a shorter season are slightly more fluctuations (which can go either way) and more games against our division. Since our division is weak, I grant that point #2 helps us out. We don't have to lose as many games against the Rangers, Penguins, Flyers, Devils, etc. if we only play them once.


We've been through this.

Basically, when you evaluate last season, you make a list of everything that went wrong and that "can't" go wrong again, without making the same list of things that went right and "can't" go right again. It's a one-sided analysis that necessarily leads to a prediction of rising from 15th place to 6th place.

By the way, losing 3-2 more frequently than winning 3-2 is about a lot more than luck. It takes skill to score that third goal.
That's not the one goal game argument. They were winning "3-1" and "4-1" pretty consistantly, but had a derth of "3-2" victories. In "real hockey" (no shootouts or empty nets) the team went -2 on the year, pretty much average.

They had the skills to get the extra goals, the extra goals just weren't at the right times. They tended to win big and lose small. Montreal's distribution of goals was badly configured to translate into wins and that is a luck thing.


However, this obscures that the Martin era team was a good team with bad luck and the Cunneyworth era was simply a bad team. And the current lineup and coaching staff is likely closer to Cunneyworth's team than Martin's.

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12-21-2012, 11:47 AM
  #202
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
They had the skills to get the extra goals, the extra goals just weren't at the right times. They tended to win big and lose small. Montreal's distribution of goals was badly configured to translate into wins and that is a luck thing.
Always be skeptical when people attribute the results of 82 data points to "luck". I admit I didn't do any detailed modelling, but for me, luck is the difference between 15th place and 12th place, and not the difference between 15th place and 8th place.

It could also be that when we were down 2-1 we lacked the offensive talent to score against teams holding their lead and playing defensively, but that when we were up 2-1 we could make it 3-1 against teams playing offensively.

That imo is one of the core weaknesses of this team: the lack of offensive talent. We don't have a top-10 center, we don't have a top-10 winger, and we don't have a top-10 defensive point shooter for the PP in the mould of Sourray / Streit / Schneider / Bergeron / Wisniewski. Aside from all our weaknesses, we can't score goals. We lost Mike Cammalleri last year. We could have signed Semin in the offseason, which would have fixed that problem, but Bergevin didn't want to, which inclines me to think of two possibilities.

Alex Galchenyuk will eventually fix that problem, just not this year. As such, in the remote chance there's a season, we're likely to draft another Galchenyuk-class type player, which is for the best.

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12-21-2012, 12:03 PM
  #203
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Always be skeptical when people attribute the results of 82 data points to "luck". I admit I didn't do any detailed modelling, but for me, luck is the difference between 15th place and 12th place, and not the difference between 15th place and 8th place.

It could also be that when we were down 2-1 we lacked the offensive talent to score against teams holding their lead and playing defensively, but that when we were up 2-1 we could make it 3-1 against teams playing offensively.

That imo is one of the core weaknesses of this team: the lack of offensive talent. We don't have a top-10 center, we don't have a top-10 winger, and we don't have a top-10 defensive point shooter for the PP in the mould of Sourray / Streit / Schneider / Bergeron / Wisniewski. Aside from all our weaknesses, we can't score goals. We lost Mike Cammalleri last year. We could have signed Semin in the offseason, which would have fixed that problem, but Bergevin didn't want to, which inclines me to think of two possibilities.

Alex Galchenyuk will eventually fix that problem, just not this year. As such, in the remote chance there's a season, we're likely to draft another Galchenyuk-class type player, which is for the best.
Lack of a first line center really isn't a good explaination. Montreal's top line scored just about as many goals as any line not centered by Stamkos or Malkin last season on ES. That was enough to make them an above average team from first line scoring despite a poor powerplay. Top unit scoring was not the reason they lost.

Subban on a down year was still one of the leagues better goal scorers on defense on the PP (tied for 8th in league). Over last 2 seasons he's top 5 in the league. Lack of a top PP shooter also doesn't work as an explanation.

Hockey when played with the level of parity that the NHL has currently is an incredibly random sport. The people who do model out the mathematics of it will tell you, over 82 games randomness plays a huge role in determining what happens.

Montreal won a conference in the regular season in 08 and went to the ECF in 10 on random factors breaking their way. If it can put you in first place are you that surprised it can put you in last?

But luck may not be the best term. I prefer to think on it as non-repeatable performance factors.


Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 12-21-2012 at 12:22 PM.
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12-21-2012, 12:05 PM
  #204
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This is a discussion that has been done to death in several other threads already - let's not bring it here. This is for discussion of the upcoming draft and its eligible prospects. Thanks.

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12-21-2012, 06:47 PM
  #205
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This 2013 draft class has the potential to be one of the stongest draft classes in many years. With as many has 40 players that could potentially go in the first round, the idea that you can predict with any accuracy who will be a first rounder will be difficult. With the exception of the top 3 players, Nathan MacKinnon, Seth Jones and possibly Alexander Barkov being the consensus top 3 picks of the 2013 draft. Every other player will be up in the air where they will place.

I believe for a team to become a Stanley Cup contending team, you need to start at the middle, the centerman. Yes goalkeepers are key and a strong defense corps is also important, but without the key centerman to anchor your offense together, there is very little a team can do in making themselves better. A franchise centerman helps your whole team to become better, gives a strong spine to your whole team on the offense and on the defense as well. And by this I mean if your franchise centerman can force the other team to keep their checking line on, your denying them scoring opportunities because their checking line isn't going to score many goals on you and more importantly your denying them the use of their top lines in the process. So this comes to my belief that to have a contending team for the Stanley Cup, you need two dominant centerman to control the middle. If you need an example, look at Pittsburgh with Sydney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Having two centerman that can create two dangerous scoring lines forces the opposition to send a checking line out to one of your lines, and forces them to send their scoring line against the other. Its a recipe for disaster because you can match lines to shut their scoring line down with your energy line and keep both your top lines hammering the oppossing team.

Which is why I think this 2013 is so important for Montreal. They already accomplished one part by drafting Alexander Galchenyuk who will be one of the pair of dominant centerman I envision. The other hopefully will come from this draft. There are 4 centerman in this draft that I think Montreal should concentrate on, not including any Russians, since I don't have much faith in them playing for us anytime soon. This draft class will be heavy on forwards unlike 2012 where defenseman were the dominant players, here its the opposite with plenty of top tier forwards that should be looked at.

These 4 forwards are all centerman of course. Each of them are fairly close to eachother in skillwise, we may disagree on who is better but for drafting purposes I want to focus on these 4 players for now. We all know that Nathan MacKinnon will go as the first pick, so for all intents we'll ignore him. The other 3 centerman are Alexander Barkov, Sean Monahan and Elias Lindholm.

Alexander Barkov has good size at 6'2" and 205lbs. Already a big guy and could potentially grow bigger. He has good vision, scores goals and had good hands. Everything you could ask for in a big centerman Barkov has, the problem though is, everyone else knows this. Its why Barkov is probably the consensus 3rd pick unless he has a bad world junior tournament.

Sean Monahan at 6'2" and 194lbs, he also has good size and potential to grow bigger. What should be known about him is he is on a very bad Ottawa 67's team but is their top scorer on their team and when their average plus/minus is -15 and Monahan is only -3 that is saying something considering he does everything for his club. PP and PK as well.

Elias Linholm, the 6', 192lbs swede is a high skill forward that plays very smart with the puck. He can play on the PP and on the PK and is an all round skill guy. We didn't get to see him in the pre tournament game against the USA, but he should help his draft stock when he does play.

Each of these centerman could potentially be franchise changing players for their respected teams. Each possess key attributes in determining how they effect their teams. Barkov plays on the number one line on his club against men who are years older then him. Monahan even though he is stuck in a very bad team, is still performing at a high level despite this and does all the stuff you would expect from a top line forward with defensive responabilities. And Linholm has boatloads of skill but plays well with the puck and is defensively sound. Each of these centerman any team would be blessed to have one of them on their roster, but for Montreal if we could nab one of these key centerman, the Habs would position themselves to create a strong middle that the club can build around and make themselves into a contending team for the Stanley Cup.

The question will be, will any of these forwards be around when Montreal does draft. The possiblity is there though because I for sure didn't expect to see Sebastian Collberg in the second round. I considered him to be a top10 talent. So a player dropping could happen. But lets look at the 2013 draft. First we have to wonder, is there going to be a season played this year? That is key because if we do have a shortened season then more then likely Montreal recovers and returns to the playoffs, with a low seed more then likely. So in essence we are looking at a pick of 15-18 probably. Depending on the needs of teams ahead of us, we could see drops by certain players. More defenseman could be drafted earlier then projected or we could have a run on wingers or power forwards that are always covetted.

If on the other hand the season does get cancelled, then our chances improve slightly at drafting some of those key centerman. For one, we would be in the running for Nathan Mackinnon, not that I would want to focus on him. What I would want if this scenario occurred is to land in the top5 for picks so we would have a chance to draft who we wanted. But say they go back and use the 2005 drafting procedure, I don't see why they would change it otherwise, so we know 50 balls would be active and by the rules, since we were a playoff team for the previous 3 seasons, we would only get one ball. So a 2% chance to land MacKinnon and a 10% chance to land in the top5 pick. Not great odds, but better then if we had a shortened season. What probably would work better for Montreal is if they landed in the top10 side, a 20% chance. Here we still would probably have a good chance at either Monahan or Lindholm depending how Lindholm does at the World Juniors.

In either case whether we have a season or not, whereever our pick lands, Montreal should focus on these forwards and if need be, use one of their 8 picks to move up if they have too. Those 3 second round picks are gold, because this draft is so deep, they should be considered first round picks because of how deep this draft is. Trading a second or a third to move up to ensure they draft Sean Monahan would go a long way to help setting Montreal on the right course.

Out of this draft there will be players that will move up over the intervening time depending how well they do in their league and how good a showing they perform at the Worlds, Jacob de la Rose will probably be a riser. Because of this, its going to be very hard to judge which player could potentially drop to the second round, its really is still too early to judge these players. Regardless if Montreal tries to obtain another centerman or whoever they decide to settle on in the first round. There will be some players that will drop. These are the players that I think should be looked at.

I'm only going to look at forwards for now, with our deep pool of defenseman, stocking up on forwards in a rich forward draft should be paramount.

Artturi Lehkonen 5'10" 163lbs. Plays in the Finnish league and plays against men. A blazing fast high skill forward with great hands. His size might hurt him when it comes to the draft.

Hudson Fasching 6'2" 214lbs. Power forward with good speed. He could go first round or second depending on how high teams value him. Still needs time to develop his game though.

William Carrier 6'2" 194lbs. Power forward with excellent speed, able to skate by defenseman and make them look silly. Plays for a very bad Cape Breton team and is second in scoring with 42pts. Carrier is a very intresting position, he can go very high in the draft because his power, size and speed combine it with the fact he isn't afraid to bang it can make this guy very valuable to teams.

Bowie Horvat 6' 203lbs. Centerman in the mold of a defensive forward with scoring skills. Good at everything including faceoffs. Probably a second round guy, but who knows he has some intresting skills that could pique a GM into taking him in the first round. With Brady Vail already drafted by Montreal, I don't see the Habs drafting this guy, but you never know.

Jacob de la Rose 6'2" 183lbs. Sadly I don't see this guy dropping to the second round. Already he proved against the pre tournament game against the USA that his two way skills are a strong asset. He was one of the better Swedish players in the game.

Justin Bailey 6'3" 190lbs. A work in progress but combine his size and puck handling skills, he has a huge upside to his game.

Alexander Wennberg 6'1" 174lbs. Swedish centerman. Should see him more in the World Juniors. Played wing in the tune up against USA. Has everything that you would consider a swedish forward to have. His draft stock could rise or fall with how well he does.

However the chips fall for Montreal whether we have a season or not. Having access to (1)1st round (3)2nd round (1)5th round (1)6th round and (1)7th round gives Montreal alot of flexiblity to pursue different strategies. Whether they decide that they need that game changing centerman to help solidify their two forward lines or they choose to go in another direction. We as Hab fans should be very happy to have these extra picks in the top half of the draft because however you look at it, we will have a good crop of prospects coming to Montreal in this 2013 draft.
The Habs have a 3rd round selection as well.

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12-21-2012, 11:25 PM
  #206
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Yeah, they can still have a draft... they just won't have any right to apply it to the players they've drafted. And no right to refuse players signing outside the draft results in the meantime, basically. They would have to collude in order to preserve their draft results, but collusion would be illegal too. Soooo... I don't know, a draft will be very difficult for them to hold without it being part of a new CBA settlement.

If we could just sign Drouin and Barkov and whatever Habs fans are out there, though... we have to be all for this as Habs fans!
Correct me if I'm wrong, but there was no CBA agreement during the 2005 draft, no?

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12-21-2012, 11:28 PM
  #207
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Could he eventually, say... "hurt" Lucic ?
Lucic would be retired by the time he plays.

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12-21-2012, 11:57 PM
  #208
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The Habs best odds of a top-5 pick are if a season is played.

Under a 2005 lottery, our odds of a top-5 pick are approximately 10%. If a season is played, it's probably ~50%, but then unlike with a lottery, the odds of drafting outside the top-15 are close to zero.
Thanks for beating me to it. We desperately need the Habs to play.

The only thing that scares me is that Habs go on an insane 10 game win streak out of the gate, and end up 7th. One huge streak in a 48 game season will do that.

I would enjoy the streak of course, but I would not enjoy watching Habs then draft 18th after being bumped in round one.

I think such streaks might be rare though in a shortened season, as all teams, especially the good ones, will be gunning it from day 1.

Therefore we desperately need the Habs to play this year. Assuming the NHL has the same sucky and unfair draft as 2005, the poster you quoted is entirely incorrect in thinking Habs chances of drafting high are better if they do not play.

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12-22-2012, 12:19 AM
  #209
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You think we don't have a chance at playoffs if there's a season lol? There's no way we finish in bottom of east again with a healthy team and Price in net. Ninth is possible but were in playoffs, especially with a shortned season (6-8).
I beg to differ.

1. We will have injuries. And a 15 game injury to Price, Pleks, Max, or Subban in a 48 game season might get us Barkov. A 15 game injury to 2 of them might get us Nathan. And no, I don't want these injuries to happen of course, but that is what happens in Hockey.

2. Marky will not have time to adjust his game. He will need 15 games at least to be effective, if he can be at all.

3. Cole is very likely to regress slightly.

4. Gionta will make a difference, it's true. Gomez will not.

5. Except for Pax, what other young stud wingers do we have? None. Not this year anyway.

6. I 'm not going to bet my house on DD, or on Bourque. Would you?

7. Who is Pleky going to play with?

8. There is no item 8.

9. Prust is welcome, but he will not score the extra 20-30 goals we need to make the playoffs.

10. I 'm not going to bet my house on Armstrong. Would you?

11. The D other than Marky and Subban will only be slightly better. Still young, or weak, or both.

12. Cube will help, but will he play 48 games? I doubt it.

13. Price will be good I'm sure, but not necessarily lights out.

Almost everything has to go right for this team to make the PO this year in 48 games. And it is very rare that almost everything goes right. The Habs are almost guaranteed a bottom 10 finish if they play this year.

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12-22-2012, 12:30 AM
  #210
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I don't see the odds of being bottom 5 anywhere close to 50%. More like 10-15%

Last year a slew of things went wrong personnel wise plus the team had horrible luck in 1 goal, OT and SO games that led to finishing 28th instead of say 18-20th as their stats should have put them. A new coach, new GM, new players and a new attitude means all things being equql they should be in the mix for one of the 8 playoff spots...I would say 60-40 to make it. Teams like Ottawa and Florida had the opposite breaks/luck and they should drop.
Bad teams lose 1 goal games, OT and shootouts. It is not bad luck, it is because they are bad teams.

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12-22-2012, 12:44 AM
  #211
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Bad teams lose 1 goal games, OT and shootouts. It is not bad luck, it is because they are bad teams.
2 centimetres can cost you a point in a shootout. That's luck.

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12-22-2012, 10:53 AM
  #212
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I'm sold on Barkov. He's sick..just plain sick. Drouin also.

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12-22-2012, 12:38 PM
  #213
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but there was no CBA agreement during the 2005 draft, no?
The CBA was signed July 13th, 2005. The draft was originally scheduled for June 25th, but was pushed back to July 30th.

If the draft was abolished, I wonder what kind of contracts MacKinnon, Barkov, Jones & Drouin would be offered? Would it be like with top college and Euro free agents, that guaranteed NHL ice time would be a big part of their decisions? In that case, maybe they would be somewhat spread throughout the league, as teams wouldn't want to guarantee NHL ice time to too many teenagers at the same time? What kind of money and term would Montreal offer to Drouin?

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12-22-2012, 12:53 PM
  #214
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If the draft was abolished, I wonder what kind of contracts MacKinnon, Barkov, Jones & Drouin would be offered? Would it be like with top college and Euro free agents, that guaranteed NHL ice time would be a big part of their decisions? In that case, maybe they would be somewhat spread throughout the league, as teams wouldn't want to guarantee NHL ice time to too many teenagers at the same time? What kind of money and term would Montreal offer to Drouin?
So basically you are talking about the total chaos scenario where the PA decertifies, this debacle goes to court, the lockout is eventually declared illegal, this season is lost, there can't be a CBA because there's no PA left to negotiate a CBA, everyone is declared a UFA, there is no more cap, no more floor, no max or minimum salary, no draft, no linkage, etc.

Honestly, making predictions for what those kids in that scenario would sign for seems to be a major shot in the dark. We'd be dealing with something not seen in modern pro sports history. Malkin could get 30 M per year from someone for all we know. Some 4th line guys could be getting 10,000$.

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12-22-2012, 01:08 PM
  #215
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So basically you are talking about the total chaos scenario where the PA decertifies, this debacle goes to court, the lockout is eventually declared illegal, this season is lost, there can't be a CBA because there's no PA left to negotiate a CBA, everyone is declared a UFA, there is no more cap, no more floor, no max or minimum salary, no draft, no linkage, etc.

Honestly, making predictions for what those kids in that scenario would sign for seems to be a major shot in the dark. We'd be dealing with something not seen in modern pro sports history. Malkin could get 30 M per year from someone for all we know. Some 4th line guys could be getting 10,000$.
Exactly - except the bolded, I'm not sure are necessary to proceed with a post-CBA world (an out of court settlement might be more likely?), but I guess that's a discussion for other parts of the board.

But yeah, I think what would happen with undrafted prospects is particularly interesting to think about, because there aren't any comparables. Maybe some team offers MacKinnon a bat**** crazy contract, and eventually contracts come down to earth? Or maybe giving the 1st overall pick an amount that is detrimental to building the rest of the team becomes a tradition?

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12-22-2012, 06:23 PM
  #216
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If the Habs pick outside of the top ten, which is likely, I hope they pick Adam Erne... seems to have a good attitude/work ethic which I think fits well with the culture this team wants to instill.

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12-22-2012, 09:19 PM
  #217
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If the Habs pick outside of the top ten, which is likely, I hope they pick Adam Erne... seems to have a good attitude/work ethic which I think fits well with the culture this team wants to instill.
Same

He reminds me of a more skilled Charlie Coyle. I would grab him at around 10 having the chance.

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12-22-2012, 10:10 PM
  #218
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When I watch Erne, it's not even his high skill level that impresses me most.

It's really more about how smart he is and how he's always involved in the play. He just gets how the game needs to be played and he brings excellent work ethic/compete level to the rink. Throw in his solid frame and it's just a very nice combination.

I think the top 6 in this draft is very clear, then you have Risto-Pulock-Shink as your 7-8-9. Erne is definitely on the radar as soon as 10th.

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12-22-2012, 10:17 PM
  #219
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If nothing changes other than a short season and the Habs by some chance make the playoffs,then all bets are off on which player they choose in the 1st round.Tyler Hill could be worth a pick that will take 3-4 yrs. to mature, he would be playing for the Habs when our next Title is due.The three 2nd's could gain some more help in the top six,Gauthier C,Carrier LW,and Mantha LW/RW,after last year's draft maybe getting those player's that win SC's is the order of this draft.

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12-22-2012, 10:50 PM
  #220
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I really like what Alexander Barkov brings, he's always in front of the net battling. I like his size too, 6'3 200lbs, and his two-way style. He reminds me of a young Anze Kopitar. Jonathan Drouin is also sick with the puck. He reminds me alot of Claude Giroux. I"m not that impressed with Elias Lindholm, and I think Seth Jones is the most overrated player in the upcoming draft. He's just an Erik Johnson clone.

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12-22-2012, 11:25 PM
  #221
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Barkov is huge, strong and skilled. Jaromir Jagr part 2.

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12-23-2012, 12:07 AM
  #222
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Saw Anthony Mantha play yesterday. Pretty intersting. Would obviously not pick him ahead of Erne, but if somehow we end up picking in the 2nd half of the 1st round, I'd be an interseting pick. Honestly, he's a player I'd HOPE to get in the 2nd round. But I don't know, somebody might really love him.

Speaking of other players... While he has flaws (and a really ugly stride), one has to like what Émile Poirier brings to the game. GREAT forechecker, extremely quick, scrappy and a consistent SH goal threat. Definitely a player I'd draft in the 3rd round. He actually make things happen on the ice. But boy, that stride is weird...

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12-23-2012, 03:32 PM
  #223
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This upcoming draft is almost solely the reason why I wish there's a season this year. It is absolutely unfair that every team might have the chance to get a top pick out of this draft. Even with 48 games, the best will be the best. Seeing Boston get, 'cause they are somewhat lucky, or any other top team get a top 5 pick or even a top 10 pick will be larceny.

On the other end.....we "deserve" another high end pick....

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Old
12-23-2012, 04:59 PM
  #224
pine
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Montréal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
This upcoming draft is almost solely the reason why I wish there's a season this year. It is absolutely unfair that every team might have the chance to get a top pick out of this draft. Even with 48 games, the best will be the best. Seeing Boston get, 'cause they are somewhat lucky, or any other top team get a top 5 pick or even a top 10 pick will be larceny.

On the other end.....we "deserve" another high end pick....
We deserve MacKinnon, Barkov, Jones, Drouin and Lindholm.

All of em.

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Old
12-23-2012, 06:13 PM
  #225
Mats86
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Deal this pick for Teravainen? Picks are generally over rated on the draft table, we'll get maximum value and Habs wanted him badly last year

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