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Garrioch: Penguins pursuing Gonchar

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Old
12-24-2012, 10:19 AM
  #51
TheRollingPuck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by caley View Post
Gonchar for Despres straight up.
In NHL 12 sure.

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Originally Posted by caley View Post
(Contingent on there being a season, obviously) I think you guys are underestimating Gonchar's worth to the Senators. After losing Filip Kuba in the offseason, and Jared Cowen to injury, the Senators blueline is already super-thin (Erik Karlsson-Marc Methot, Chris Phillips-Mike Lundin and then a whole schwack of prospects). For them to give up one of their few remaining Top 4 d-men, a team would have to pay through the nose to get him.
Then it would be wise for Ottawa not to deal him if he is that important to them.

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Pittsburgh has a number of good blueline prospects in the system (Morrow, Harrington, Dumoulin, Maatta, Pouliot) to replace Despres on the depth chart, and Despres is the only one of those 6 to have NHL experience that could step right in to Ottawa's Top 4 right now (Ottawa would have to have someone who can step into the Top 4 right now because they're a playoff contender, not rebuilding). Therefore, if the Penguins are missing Gonchar's leadership and want him back, the cost will likely start with Despres.
So the Pens are obliged to trade a quality player because they have the luxury to? I know it is Christmas, but Shero shouldn't be that generous.

And I love the assumption made by everyone that Pittsburgh is willing to part with their D prospects. In case people missed the Philly series, the defense was ****. Why would it be ideal to trade one, let alone a guy that played well (Despres), for an over the hill veteran?

Quote:
Paul Martin has no value to the Senators, or any other team, after his play down the stretch last year. He's gonna need a nice stretch of play before anyone's willing to deal for him.

Now, if Ottawa falls out of the playoff race, Gonchar might come available at the deadline for much cheaper. But, if you're talking about Pittsburgh wanting him as soon as the lock-out is over, my guess is it would take Despres to get Ottawa to consider it.
Martin can't fetch anything after a down year, but Gonchar can command a ransom after two suspect seasons? Interesting.

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Originally Posted by Benny FTW View Post
Gonchar is really getting under rated in this thread.
No. He's just getting overrated/overvalued by those that want a significant return. If Gonchar is worth a 3rd rounder or Despres, then I'd be anxious to hear what Martin would fetch.

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Old
12-24-2012, 10:20 AM
  #52
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As much as I would love one of Pittsburgh's "big-six" on defence, I don't think they're willing to move any of them for a potential rental. On the flipside, the Senators aren't in a position to give him away with how weak their D looks on paper.

In an ideal world i'd love to pick up Niskanen, I think he would add a nice dimension to the team. I doubt Pittsburgh parts with him though, so I think it would take Bortuzzo and a pick to get Murray interested.

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12-24-2012, 10:21 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Wingsfan2965 View Post
Shero's the guy who gave Martin $5M a year right?
Yeah but he and other people (HF called him an underrated number 1 for years) thought he'd provide more than he has. Typical situation where a player takes his foot off the gas consciouslly or sub-consciouslly once he gets set for life.

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Originally Posted by Benny FTW View Post
37 pts in 74 gp while getting 2nd pairing and 2nd unit PP minutes is not bad.

His cap hit could maybe lower his value but not his age so much. Hes only got 1 year left, its not as if he has 3 years left on a 35+ contract.
They both lower the value for sure. Yeah it's only a one-year deal at this point, but there's uncertainty around a player getting to that age.

The reality is, it's Sergei Gonchar, he had a decent last season, but he is old, a rental, and is overpaid by about $2 mil at this point, so he has little value in a trade.

Like I said, I don't think this happens in reality, and I don't want it to happen. If the Pens can muster up that kind of money I'd rather see them go after Iginla at the deadline (or another substantial winger) as opposed to tie themselves down for "leadership".

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Old
12-24-2012, 10:49 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Superunknown94 View Post
No. He's just getting overrated/overvalued by those that want a significant return. If Gonchar is worth a 3rd rounder or Despres, then I'd be anxious to hear what Martin would fetch.
From an Ottawa point of view hes getting underrated/undervalued. It would take an over payment for Ottawa to trade Gonchar at this point. He's a top 4 dman that can play on your first PP unit. Hes not some bottom pairing scrub.

I understand why Pittsburgh doesn't want him though.

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12-24-2012, 11:04 AM
  #55
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Originally Posted by PensBandwagonerNo272 View Post
Yeah but he and other people (HF called him an underrated number 1 for years) thought he'd provide more than he has. Typical situation where a player takes his foot off the gas consciouslly or sub-consciouslly once he gets set for life.
Ehh, even if he has just taken his foot off the gas, I still think it was a bad contract. My assessment when it was originally signed was that he'd be nearly worth it in the first two, maybe three years, but the rest would be a stark overpayment.

Turns out he just went straight to the stark overpayment.

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Old
12-24-2012, 11:10 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Phion Keneuf View Post
Galaxy's for lunacklha
Sorry guys, wasn't all there last night.

I was thinking Gonchar for Kuhnackhl

Maybe some salary going to Ottawa.

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Old
12-24-2012, 11:15 AM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Benny FTW View Post
From an Ottawa point of view hes getting underrated/undervalued. It would take an over payment for Ottawa to trade Gonchar at this point. He's a top 4 dman that can play on your first PP unit. Hes not some bottom pairing scrub.

I understand why Pittsburgh doesn't want him though.
Why would it take an over payment for Ottawa to trade him? You never really explained that...


John Michael-Liles was traded for a 2nd, he was younger, coming off of a better season and on a friendlier cap-hit. Considering Gonchar is a UFA after the 2012-2013 season which might not even happen, you'd have to be crazy to think he'll nab a prospect like Despres.

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12-24-2012, 11:21 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Wingsfan2965 View Post
Ehh, even if he has just taken his foot off the gas, I still think it was a bad contract. My assessment when it was originally signed was that he'd be nearly worth it in the first two, maybe three years, but the rest would be a stark overpayment.

Turns out he just went straight to the stark overpayment.
He only signed a 3 year contract when he signed with the Senators...

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Old
12-24-2012, 11:22 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Sureves View Post
He only signed a 3 year contract when he signed with the Senators...
Talking about Martin.

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Old
12-24-2012, 11:23 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MastuhNinks View Post
Why would it take an over payment for Ottawa to trade him? You never really explained that...


John Michael-Liles was traded for a 2nd, he was younger, coming off of a better season and on a friendlier cap-hit. Considering Gonchar is a UFA after the 2012-2013 season which might not even happen, you'd have to be crazy to think he'll nab a prospect like Despres.
Because the D, on paper, looks quite bad without him.

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12-24-2012, 11:23 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MastuhNinks View Post
Why would it take an over payment for Ottawa to trade him? You never really explained that...


John Michael-Liles was traded for a 2nd, he was younger, coming off of a better season and on a friendlier cap-hit. Considering Gonchar is a UFA after the 2012-2013 season which might not even happen, you'd have to be crazy to think he'll nab a prospect like Despres.
Cowen is out for the season and the sens dont have the depth to trade Gonchar. Making me think this rumour is pure garbage.

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Old
12-24-2012, 11:25 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by stempniaksen View Post
Because the D, on paper, looks quite bad without him.
More reason to tank if there's a shortened season.

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Old
12-24-2012, 11:26 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Wingsfan2965 View Post
Shero's the guy who gave Martin $5M a year right?
At the time, everything pointed to Martin being a sound investment. In his prime, consistent point producer/puck mover, and reliable defensive presence. It's why he was one of the most coveted UFA defensemen that summer.

Gonchar today? Not so much.

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Old
12-24-2012, 11:50 AM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Sureves View Post
He only signed a 3 year contract when he signed with the Senators...
Welcome to the conversation, I'm talking about Martin.

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Old
12-24-2012, 12:07 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stempniaksen View Post
Talking about Martin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wingsfan2965 View Post
Welcome to the conversation, I'm talking about Martin.
Woops, crazy symmetry between the two players. I made the exact prediction that Gonchar would be good for 2 years and then suck the third, unfortunately he went straight to being mediocre from the start.

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12-24-2012, 12:08 PM
  #66
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I doubt Gonchar has much trade value anymore, he isn't what he once was. No team is going to move a top prospect for him, or even a high draft pick I'd imagine. Factor in that contract he has... I think Ottawa would be smart to move him for anything, I still don't think that is a team ready to contend despite last season and he'd be holding that defense together a tad bit better than without him. Why not tank? It'll only be a 3 month tank or so, and get a nice prospect then. Maybe in two seasons they'll be more ready to contend.

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12-24-2012, 12:10 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PensBandwagonerNo272 View Post
Having watched him in Pittsburgh for years, and watching his last season there and last two in Ottawa, yes he is definitely declining.

He is not the Gonchar of old, and his value represents that, regardless of whether his 2nd Ottawa season was marginally better than his 1st.

To be honest, I want nothing to do with Gonchar at $5.5 mil, and I think this rumor is pretty much crap because I doubt Shero does either.
lol this guy thinks he knows Ray Shero.

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Old
12-24-2012, 12:12 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Sureves View Post
Woops, crazy symmetry between the two players. I made the exact prediction that Gonchar would be good for 2 years and then suck the third, unfortunately he went straight to being mediocre from the start.
I was more fixated on the fact that they gave a lump sum to a guy who (while he had some offensive talent) had obviously inflated numbers due to playing with Crosby and Malkin, was terri-bad defensively, (especially in the 09-10 playoffs) and had recent history of being injury prone.

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12-24-2012, 12:18 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by NathanHortonFan View Post
I doubt Gonchar has much trade value anymore, he isn't what he once was. No team is going to move a top prospect for him, or even a high draft pick I'd imagine. Factor in that contract he has... I think Ottawa would be smart to move him for anything, I still don't think that is a team ready to contend despite last season and he'd be holding that defense together a tad bit better than without him. Why not tank? It'll only be a 3 month tank or so, and get a nice prospect then. Maybe in two seasons they'll be more ready to contend.
If CapGeek's numbers are correct, Ottawa's currently $18M under the cap, so moving him to get rid of cap space actually hurts them.

Which actually brings to my attention the fact that if the cap comes down like the league wants it to, Ottawa could be a huge player in free agency next season.

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12-24-2012, 12:37 PM
  #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny FTW View Post
Gonchar is really getting under rated in this thread.
By way of being 38 years old and UFA, not really.


I think everyone knows he'd be serviceable, too what extent?

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12-24-2012, 12:40 PM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wingsfan2965 View Post
If CapGeek's numbers are correct, Ottawa's currently $18M under the cap, so moving him to get rid of cap space actually hurts them.

Which actually brings to my attention the fact that if the cap comes down like the league wants it to, Ottawa could be a huge player in free agency next season.
Interesting, didn't realize that.

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12-24-2012, 12:47 PM
  #72
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If you watched him since leaving Pittsburgh I'm really confused to why you'd say something like that, because if he was "declining steadily", why was last year a dramatic improvement on his first year with the Senators?


Gonchar was a steady 50/60 point player for the Pens, and saying he improved on a 27 point season with 37 is somehow gonna say he's on his way back to 50/60 is a tall order to sell. 27/37 is a pretty big decline from 50/60. Just saying

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12-24-2012, 12:47 PM
  #73
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Gonchar and Noesen for Despres might make sense.

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12-24-2012, 01:00 PM
  #74
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Garrioch is an absolute pain in the ass to read.
Garrioch is "Fat Ass!", Brennan is "Head up his Ass."

With their powers combined they form "Pain in the ass to read guys!"

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Old
12-24-2012, 01:00 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by Wingsfan2965 View Post
I was more fixated on the fact that they gave a lump sum to a guy who (while he had some offensive talent) had obviously inflated numbers due to playing with Crosby and Malkin, was terri-bad defensively, (especially in the 09-10 playoffs) and had recent history of being injury prone.
Agreed. It was a high risk move, but ultimately I was ok with Murray doing it just because Ottawa isn't exactly a hotspot for high-end UFAs so we had to take a risk at getting a potentially high-end UFA where we could.

But yeah, definitely had to discount his expected performance since he had the benefit of playing with some of the league's best players in Pittsburgh.

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